06_Day_1_Palmer
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06_Day_1_Palmer

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06_Day_1_Palmer 06_Day_1_Palmer Presentation Transcript

    • “ He believed in the primacy of doubt; not as a blemish upon our ability to know, but as the essence of knowing ”
    • Gleick (1992) on Richard Feynman’s philosophy of science.
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  • “… one flap of a sea-gull’s wing may forever change the future course of the weather” (Lorenz, 1965)
  • 2-Day Ensemble Forecast from 24/12/99
  • Destruction of the church in Balliveirs (left) and the devastation of the ancient forest at Versailles (below). European Wind Storms: December 1999 100 lives lost 400 million trees destroyed
  • Ensemble techniques are being used to estimate uncertainty in global warming Murphy et al (2004) Stainforth et al (2005)
  • Ensemble members differ in the values of uncertain parameters in simplified representation of unresolvable eg cloud processes (< 300km)
  • IPCC (2001) range Previously unknown risk of catastrophic warming Stainforth et al (2005) Probability of Global Warming
  • The LACES Project Large Atmospheric Computation on the Earth Simulator 12-h development of Hurricane Earl: Sept.1, 1998: 1-km horizontal resolution