Engineering Responses to Changing Climate Klaus S. Lackner Columbia University
FRAMING THE DEBATE <ul><li>Defensive Strategy – Avoid Losses </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Prevent climate catastrophe </li></ul><...
Challenges <ul><li>Greenhouse Gas Emissions </li></ul><ul><li>Overdependence on Oil </li></ul><ul><li>Affordability </li><...
New ideas change the world <ul><li>Steam Engine </li></ul><ul><li>Trains & Ships </li></ul><ul><li>Telephones </li></ul><u...
21st Century’s Emissions ??? Atmo-sphere 2000 Ocean Plants Coal Oil, Gas, Tars & Shales Methane Hydrates             ...
180ppm increase in the air 30% of the Ocean acidified 30%  increase in Soil Carbon 50% increase in biomass Methane Hydrate...
Energy, Wealth, Economic Growth EIA Data for 2002 Norway   USA   France   UK   Brazil   Russia   India   China   $0.38/kWh...
Today’s Energy Infrastructure <ul><li>All fossil energy </li></ul><ul><li>plus a little hydro and nuclear energy </li></ul...
Mega-scale Projects Dominate Low Cost tied to Large Scale <ul><li>Power plants are 200 to 2000 MW </li></ul><ul><li>(400 t...
Today’s Technology Fails To Deliver Sufficient Energy … <ul><li>… for 10 billion at US per capita rates </li></ul><ul><ul>...
10 - 30 TeraWatt Primary Energy of Carbon Neutral 2050
Zero Carbon Renewable Energy  <ul><ul><li>Hydroelectricity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Cheap but limited, already estab...
Nuclear Energy for Zero Carbon <ul><li>Nuclear Energy </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Fission </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Cost </...
Fossil Fuels Energy in 2100 need not be more expensive than today Environment Rather Than Resource Limit Carbon Capture an...
Carbon as Low Cost Energy Rogner 1997
Net Zero Carbon Economy Capture of distributed emissions CO 2  extraction  from air Permanent & safe disposal CO 2  from c...
Underground Injection statoil
Storage Life Time 5000 Gt of C 200 years at 4 times current rates of emission Storage Slow Leak (0.04%/yr) 2 Gt/yr for 250...
Rockville Quarry Mg 3 Si 2 O 5 (OH) 4  + 3CO 2 (g)    3MgCO 3  + 2SiO 2  +2H 2 O(l)   +63kJ/mole
CO 2  N 2 H 2 O SO x , NO x  and other Pollutants Carbon  Air Zero Emission Principle Solid Waste Power Plant
Air Extraction can compensate for CO 2  emissions anywhere Art Courtesy Stonehaven CCS, Montreal 2NaOH + CO 2     Na 2 CO 3
Hydrogen or Air Extraction  Coal,Gas  Fossil  Fuel  Oil Hydrogen Gasoline Consumption Consumption Distribution Distributio...
Hydrogen or Air Extraction  Coal,Gas  Fossil  Fuel  Oil Hydrogen Gasoline Consumption Consumption Distribution Distributio...
Energy Source Energy Consumer H 2 O H 2 O O 2 O 2 Materially Closed Energy Cycles H 2 CO 2 CO 2 H 2 CH 2
C H O Fuels Oxidizer Combustion products Biomass CO Fischer Tropsch Synthesis Gas Methanol Ethanol Natural Gas Town Gas Pe...
C H O Fuels Oxidizer Combustion products Biomass CO Fischer Tropsch Synthesis Gas Methanol Ethanol Natural Gas Town Gas Pe...
C H O Fuels Oxidizer Combustion products Biomass CO Fischer Tropsch Synthesis Gas Methanol Ethanol Natural Gas Town Gas Pe...
A Triad of Large Scale Options backed by a multitude of opportunities <ul><li>Solar </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Cost reduction a...
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  • 05_Day_1_Lackner

    1. 1. Engineering Responses to Changing Climate Klaus S. Lackner Columbia University
    2. 2. FRAMING THE DEBATE <ul><li>Defensive Strategy – Avoid Losses </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Prevent climate catastrophe </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Proactive Strategy – Create Gains </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Provide clean, cheap energy for ten billion </li></ul></ul>
    3. 3. Challenges <ul><li>Greenhouse Gas Emissions </li></ul><ul><li>Overdependence on Oil </li></ul><ul><li>Affordability </li></ul>Rethink the World Energy Infrastructure
    4. 4. New ideas change the world <ul><li>Steam Engine </li></ul><ul><li>Trains & Ships </li></ul><ul><li>Telephones </li></ul><ul><li>Automobile </li></ul><ul><li>Television </li></ul><ul><li>Airplanes </li></ul><ul><li>Internet </li></ul>Unpredicted and unmodeled, these inventions changed the course of future societal developments in unexpected ways
    5. 5. 21st Century’s Emissions ??? Atmo-sphere 2000 Ocean Plants Coal Oil, Gas, Tars & Shales Methane Hydrates        pH < 0.3 39,000 Gt 50,000 Gt ??? Soil & Detritus 1800 constant Scales of Potential Carbon Sinks Carbon Resources Carbon Sources and Sinks 0 Gt 8,000 Gt 7,000 Gt 6,000 Gt 5,000 Gt 4,000 Gt 3,000 Gt 2,000 Gt 1,000 Gt 20th Century 2  3  4 
    6. 6. 180ppm increase in the air 30% of the Ocean acidified 30% increase in Soil Carbon 50% increase in biomass Methane Hydrates 10,000 - 100,000 GtC The Mismatch in Carbon Sources and Sinks World Fossil Resource Estimate 21st century emissions 8000 GtC 4  3  1  2  5  1, 2, 3, 4 or 5 times current rate of emission???? 1800 - 2000 Fossil Carbon Consumption to date
    7. 7. Energy, Wealth, Economic Growth EIA Data for 2002 Norway USA France UK Brazil Russia India China $0.38/kWh (primary)
    8. 8. Today’s Energy Infrastructure <ul><li>All fossil energy </li></ul><ul><li>plus a little hydro and nuclear energy </li></ul><ul><li>plus a very little renewable energy </li></ul>
    9. 9. Mega-scale Projects Dominate Low Cost tied to Large Scale <ul><li>Power plants are 200 to 2000 MW </li></ul><ul><li>(400 to 4000 large wind mills) </li></ul><ul><li>Refineries are billion dollar investments </li></ul><ul><li>Large scale provides obstacle to entry </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>For developing nations </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>For innovation </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>For flexible response to shortages </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>For eliminating political dependencies </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul>
    10. 10. Today’s Technology Fails To Deliver Sufficient Energy … <ul><li>… for 10 billion at US per capita rates </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Environmental Problems </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Pollution, CO 2 </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Oil and Gas Shortages </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Concentration in the Middle East </li></ul></ul></ul>How much time do we have to make the change?
    11. 11. 10 - 30 TeraWatt Primary Energy of Carbon Neutral 2050
    12. 12. Zero Carbon Renewable Energy <ul><ul><li>Hydroelectricity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Cheap but limited, already established </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Wind, Tidal </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Roughly cost effective but limited like hydro </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Geothermal </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Limited or difficult, needs new ideas for low grade heat </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ocean Thermal </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Too dilute, and environmental issues </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Solar </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Unlimited, still too expensive, but very promising </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Low grade solar heat already in use </li></ul></ul></ul>
    13. 13. Nuclear Energy for Zero Carbon <ul><li>Nuclear Energy </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Fission </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Cost </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Resource limits - but breeder technology </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Waste Disposal </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Safety </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Security </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Fusion – Unlimited Supply </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Major technology hurdles </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Much smaller waste issues </li></ul></ul></ul>
    14. 14. Fossil Fuels Energy in 2100 need not be more expensive than today Environment Rather Than Resource Limit Carbon Capture and Storage - Untested Technology
    15. 15. Carbon as Low Cost Energy Rogner 1997
    16. 16. Net Zero Carbon Economy Capture of distributed emissions CO 2 extraction from air Permanent & safe disposal CO 2 from concentrated sources electricity or hydrogen Geological Storage Mineral carbonate disposal
    17. 17. Underground Injection statoil
    18. 18. Storage Life Time 5000 Gt of C 200 years at 4 times current rates of emission Storage Slow Leak (0.04%/yr) 2 Gt/yr for 2500 years Current Emissions: 6Gt/year
    19. 19. Rockville Quarry Mg 3 Si 2 O 5 (OH) 4 + 3CO 2 (g)  3MgCO 3 + 2SiO 2 +2H 2 O(l) +63kJ/mole
    20. 20. CO 2 N 2 H 2 O SO x , NO x and other Pollutants Carbon Air Zero Emission Principle Solid Waste Power Plant
    21. 21. Air Extraction can compensate for CO 2 emissions anywhere Art Courtesy Stonehaven CCS, Montreal 2NaOH + CO 2  Na 2 CO 3
    22. 22. Hydrogen or Air Extraction Coal,Gas Fossil Fuel Oil Hydrogen Gasoline Consumption Consumption Distribution Distribution CO 2 Transport Air Extraction CO 2 Disposal
    23. 23. Hydrogen or Air Extraction Coal,Gas Fossil Fuel Oil Hydrogen Gasoline Consumption Consumption Distribution Distribution CO 2 Transport Air Extraction CO 2 Disposal Cost comparisons
    24. 24. Energy Source Energy Consumer H 2 O H 2 O O 2 O 2 Materially Closed Energy Cycles H 2 CO 2 CO 2 H 2 CH 2
    25. 25. C H O Fuels Oxidizer Combustion products Biomass CO Fischer Tropsch Synthesis Gas Methanol Ethanol Natural Gas Town Gas Petroleum Coal Gasoline Benzene Carbon Hydrogen CO 2 H 2 O Oxygen Increasing Hydrogen Content Increasing Oxidation State Methane Free O 2 Free C- H
    26. 26. C H O Fuels Oxidizer Combustion products Biomass CO Fischer Tropsch Synthesis Gas Methanol Ethanol Natural Gas Town Gas Petroleum Coal Gasoline Benzene Carbon Hydrogen CO 2 H 2 O Oxygen Increasing Hydrogen Content Increasing Oxidation State Methane Free O 2 Free C- H
    27. 27. C H O Fuels Oxidizer Combustion products Biomass CO Fischer Tropsch Synthesis Gas Methanol Ethanol Natural Gas Town Gas Petroleum Coal Gasoline Benzene Carbon Hydrogen CO 2 H 2 O Oxygen Increasing Hydrogen Content Increasing Oxidation State Methane Free O 2 Free C- H
    28. 28. A Triad of Large Scale Options backed by a multitude of opportunities <ul><li>Solar </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Cost reduction and mass-manufacture </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Nuclear </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Cost, waste, safety and security </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Fossil Energy </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Zero emission, carbon storage and interconvertibility </li></ul></ul>Markets will drive efficiency, conservation and alternative energy
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