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01_Day_1_Oxburgh
 

01_Day_1_Oxburgh

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    01_Day_1_Oxburgh 01_Day_1_Oxburgh Presentation Transcript

    • Policies, Politics and Greenhouse Gases Ron Oxburgh
    • Twentieth Century
      • Developed world optimised to cheap, abundant fossil fuel & raw materials
      • BUT
        • The end of fossil fuel supplies coming into sight
        • Burgeoning world population needing fuel
        • Anthropogenic greenhouse gases making planet inhospitable to current inhabitants
    • The Science
      • The link between anthropogenic GHG and global warming
      • Short circuiting of part of the C-cycle
      • Endorsed by nearly all authoritative scientific opinion
      • Location and timing of detailed consequences less clear
    • The Practical Problem
      • Prosperity of developed world built on fossil fuels
      • Full replacement of fossil fuels not possible for some decades
      • Ca. 30 years to bring GHG emissions under control?
    • Energy Policy Drivers
      • Price
      • Energy security
      • Environmental security
      • To some extent these push in the same direction
    • Responses
      • Economise
      • Greater efficiency
      • Change fuel mix
      • Substitute renewables for fossil fuels
      • Nuclear
      • Carbon capture and storage
    • The Challenge of Infrastructure
      • Value of hundreds of trillions of dollars
      • Very slow renewal of existing infrastructure geared to cheap fuel
      • For 2025 we have only today’s technology
      • Cars 10 -15 yrs
      • Aircraft 20 -30 yrs
      • Wind turbines 25 yrs
      • Pwr. plants 40+yrs
      • Trains 30+ years
      • Elec. distribn 40+yrs
      • Houses 70+ years
    • Implication of Infrastructure ‘Drag’
      • Major change feasible and affordable if, and only if, carried out as part of life cycle replacement or expansion new-build over a long period
    • Expansion in Energy Demand
      • We are aiming at a moving target
      • World population is growing
      • Every population uses more energy as its becomes more prosperous
    • GDP & Energy use – various countries 2001
    • Increase in Energy Use vs GDP 1971-2001, Malaysia & Korea KOREA MALAYSIA 1971
    • Primary Energy / CO2 Iceland Sw N Kuw
    • People and Emissions Developed Emerging Developing Poorest 2002 6.2 B 2050 9.2 B
    • Implications of a larger and more prosperous world population
      • If climate change is to be contained the emissions of the developing and emerging countries have to be managed at least as carefully as those of the developed world.
    • Coal
      • Abundant
      • Widely distributed
      • Inexpensive
      • Easily burned
      • High in GHG emissions
    • Coal is relatively abundant – Energy Value of Reserves Data from BP Statistical Review
    • Coal can be dirty – Kg CO2 / MJ energy Energy produced depends on fuel and efficiency of conversion
    • Main Exporters and Importers of oil & gas EXPORT IMPORT
    • Oil, Gas and Coal
    • Approximate real terms fuel price ranges 1985 – ‘05
    • Implications of Coal
      • Considerations of cost and security of supply will make coal central to world energy policies for at least three decades
      • Because coal can be the most polluting fossil fuel there can be no credible climate strategy that does not have managing coal at its core
    • Where Next?
      • No silver bullet –’wedges’
      • Produce as little CO2 as possible and sequester as cheaply as possible
      • Coal
      • Global problem but poorest worst hit
      • The West caused the problem – obligation to help?
      Science Policy Politics Industry Technology
    • The Way Forward
      • Growth and GHG management can be compatible e.g. EU plan - start now with replacement and new build
      • Right regulatory/fiscal framework essential
      • But political vs action timescales?
      • Credible strategy for the developing world?
      • Not bad for business, different for business
    • Thank You
    • 2002 Primary energy sources EU 25 Transport vehicles air
    • 2002 Emissions by Primary energy source – EU 25
      • Transport 50% oil use – 60% of oil emissions
      • Coal more emissions per unit energy than oil
      • Oil more emissions per unit energy than Gas
      Total 1.3 GT pa
    • Assumptions
      • Per capita energy consumption of ‘the 25’ will over time rise to the average of the ’former 15’
      • Politically and socially impracticable to reduce freedom of individuals to travel
      • Infrastructure now needs to be re-optimised to:
          • Minimise use of fossil fuels
          • Minimise CO2 emissions
          • Allow increase in overall energy consumption
    • Reactions to Climate Threat
      • Denial of the phenomenon & the science
      • Acceptance of science but:
        • “ Effective action impossible”
        • or
        • “ Protect ourselves with technology”
      • “ The Kyoto response”
    • A strategy to 2025 - Transport
      • Expect
      • Vehicle fleet increases 220 to 300 million
      • Annual distance per vehicle declines 16,000 km to 14,000 km
      • Require
      • Bio content of fuel increases to 8% *
      • Vehicle fleet achieves hybrid efficiencies *
      • (i.e. improves from 9.7 l/100km to 6.5l/100km)
      • Outcome: ~30% fall in vehicle emissions & ~20% rise in distance driven
    • Electricity – Approximate Installed Capacity
      • FUEL 2002 2025
      • Coal: 130 130 GW
      • Clean coal : 0 45 GW
      • Oil: 40
      • CCGT: 90 255 GW
      • Nuclear: 130 150 GW
      • Wind: 5 80 GW
      • Hydro/Geoth etc.: 50 70 GW
      • TOTAL 450 730 GW
              • Increase electricity generation by ~60%
              • Decrease emissions by ~8%
    • The Balance Sheet – Final Use (rounded figures) 1.04 1.3 TOTAL 0.2 0.32 10 14 Air, sea, chems etc.         0.16 0.24 8 10 Vehicles     EJ EJ         0.68 0.74 730 450 Electricity CO2 G tonnes GW GW 2025 2002 2025 2002
    • OIL GAS 0 20 40 60 80 Biomass Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal COAL -1.4 -1.2 -1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 2002 2025 Sequestration Transport changes Gas for power generation More wind and solar Carbon emissions, GT Energy, EJ EU-25 Energy and Carbon Changes to 2025 20% emissions reduction
    • The Transition
      • The relevant technologies already exist
      • At present no business case - who wants them?
      • There must be credible a regulatory/fiscal framework
      • Change affordable as part of the natural plant replacement cycle (30+ years), or as new build
    • The Politics
      • International competition – level playing fields?
      • Continuing political will in developed world?
      • Cooperation in the Developing World?
    • Energy Use in ‘the 25’ Accession Countries
    • Conclusions
      • Emissions reduction is compatible with economic growth and security
      • IF there is a global political will to do so
      • IFF it is done in a planned and gradual way
      • IFF it is done as new build and life-cycle replacement
      • IFF a plan and consequential regulatory changes are agreed soon
      • IFF industry is given time to respond appropriately
      • Coal is so important that sequestration will be essential
    • Populations and Emissions Developed Emerging Developing Poorest