01_Day_1_Oxburgh
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01_Day_1_Oxburgh

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01_Day_1_Oxburgh 01_Day_1_Oxburgh Presentation Transcript

  • Policies, Politics and Greenhouse Gases Ron Oxburgh
  • Twentieth Century
    • Developed world optimised to cheap, abundant fossil fuel & raw materials
    • BUT
      • The end of fossil fuel supplies coming into sight
      • Burgeoning world population needing fuel
      • Anthropogenic greenhouse gases making planet inhospitable to current inhabitants
  • The Science
    • The link between anthropogenic GHG and global warming
    • Short circuiting of part of the C-cycle
    • Endorsed by nearly all authoritative scientific opinion
    • Location and timing of detailed consequences less clear
  • The Practical Problem
    • Prosperity of developed world built on fossil fuels
    • Full replacement of fossil fuels not possible for some decades
    • Ca. 30 years to bring GHG emissions under control?
  • Energy Policy Drivers
    • Price
    • Energy security
    • Environmental security
    • To some extent these push in the same direction
  • Responses
    • Economise
    • Greater efficiency
    • Change fuel mix
    • Substitute renewables for fossil fuels
    • Nuclear
    • Carbon capture and storage
  • The Challenge of Infrastructure
    • Value of hundreds of trillions of dollars
    • Very slow renewal of existing infrastructure geared to cheap fuel
    • For 2025 we have only today’s technology
    • Cars 10 -15 yrs
    • Aircraft 20 -30 yrs
    • Wind turbines 25 yrs
    • Pwr. plants 40+yrs
    • Trains 30+ years
    • Elec. distribn 40+yrs
    • Houses 70+ years
  • Implication of Infrastructure ‘Drag’
    • Major change feasible and affordable if, and only if, carried out as part of life cycle replacement or expansion new-build over a long period
  • Expansion in Energy Demand
    • We are aiming at a moving target
    • World population is growing
    • Every population uses more energy as its becomes more prosperous
  • GDP & Energy use – various countries 2001
  • Increase in Energy Use vs GDP 1971-2001, Malaysia & Korea KOREA MALAYSIA 1971
  • Primary Energy / CO2 Iceland Sw N Kuw
  • People and Emissions Developed Emerging Developing Poorest 2002 6.2 B 2050 9.2 B
  • Implications of a larger and more prosperous world population
    • If climate change is to be contained the emissions of the developing and emerging countries have to be managed at least as carefully as those of the developed world.
  • Coal
    • Abundant
    • Widely distributed
    • Inexpensive
    • Easily burned
    • High in GHG emissions
  • Coal is relatively abundant – Energy Value of Reserves Data from BP Statistical Review
  • Coal can be dirty – Kg CO2 / MJ energy Energy produced depends on fuel and efficiency of conversion
  • Main Exporters and Importers of oil & gas EXPORT IMPORT
  • Oil, Gas and Coal
  • Approximate real terms fuel price ranges 1985 – ‘05
  • Implications of Coal
    • Considerations of cost and security of supply will make coal central to world energy policies for at least three decades
    • Because coal can be the most polluting fossil fuel there can be no credible climate strategy that does not have managing coal at its core
  • Where Next?
    • No silver bullet –’wedges’
    • Produce as little CO2 as possible and sequester as cheaply as possible
    • Coal
    • Global problem but poorest worst hit
    • The West caused the problem – obligation to help?
    Science Policy Politics Industry Technology
  • The Way Forward
    • Growth and GHG management can be compatible e.g. EU plan - start now with replacement and new build
    • Right regulatory/fiscal framework essential
    • But political vs action timescales?
    • Credible strategy for the developing world?
    • Not bad for business, different for business
  • Thank You
  • 2002 Primary energy sources EU 25 Transport vehicles air
  • 2002 Emissions by Primary energy source – EU 25
    • Transport 50% oil use – 60% of oil emissions
    • Coal more emissions per unit energy than oil
    • Oil more emissions per unit energy than Gas
    Total 1.3 GT pa
  • Assumptions
    • Per capita energy consumption of ‘the 25’ will over time rise to the average of the ’former 15’
    • Politically and socially impracticable to reduce freedom of individuals to travel
    • Infrastructure now needs to be re-optimised to:
        • Minimise use of fossil fuels
        • Minimise CO2 emissions
        • Allow increase in overall energy consumption
  • Reactions to Climate Threat
    • Denial of the phenomenon & the science
    • Acceptance of science but:
      • “ Effective action impossible”
      • or
      • “ Protect ourselves with technology”
    • “ The Kyoto response”
  • A strategy to 2025 - Transport
    • Expect
    • Vehicle fleet increases 220 to 300 million
    • Annual distance per vehicle declines 16,000 km to 14,000 km
    • Require
    • Bio content of fuel increases to 8% *
    • Vehicle fleet achieves hybrid efficiencies *
    • (i.e. improves from 9.7 l/100km to 6.5l/100km)
    • Outcome: ~30% fall in vehicle emissions & ~20% rise in distance driven
  • Electricity – Approximate Installed Capacity
    • FUEL 2002 2025
    • Coal: 130 130 GW
    • Clean coal : 0 45 GW
    • Oil: 40
    • CCGT: 90 255 GW
    • Nuclear: 130 150 GW
    • Wind: 5 80 GW
    • Hydro/Geoth etc.: 50 70 GW
    • TOTAL 450 730 GW
            • Increase electricity generation by ~60%
            • Decrease emissions by ~8%
  • The Balance Sheet – Final Use (rounded figures) 1.04 1.3 TOTAL 0.2 0.32 10 14 Air, sea, chems etc.         0.16 0.24 8 10 Vehicles     EJ EJ         0.68 0.74 730 450 Electricity CO2 G tonnes GW GW 2025 2002 2025 2002
  • OIL GAS 0 20 40 60 80 Biomass Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal COAL -1.4 -1.2 -1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 2002 2025 Sequestration Transport changes Gas for power generation More wind and solar Carbon emissions, GT Energy, EJ EU-25 Energy and Carbon Changes to 2025 20% emissions reduction
  • The Transition
    • The relevant technologies already exist
    • At present no business case - who wants them?
    • There must be credible a regulatory/fiscal framework
    • Change affordable as part of the natural plant replacement cycle (30+ years), or as new build
  • The Politics
    • International competition – level playing fields?
    • Continuing political will in developed world?
    • Cooperation in the Developing World?
  • Energy Use in ‘the 25’ Accession Countries
  • Conclusions
    • Emissions reduction is compatible with economic growth and security
    • IF there is a global political will to do so
    • IFF it is done in a planned and gradual way
    • IFF it is done as new build and life-cycle replacement
    • IFF a plan and consequential regulatory changes are agreed soon
    • IFF industry is given time to respond appropriately
    • Coal is so important that sequestration will be essential
  • Populations and Emissions Developed Emerging Developing Poorest