Climate Equity December 2007

Slide 1: Global warming in an unequal world: A global deal for effective action CSE, New Delhi

Slide 2: The crisis: the science of climate change 1. Climate change is real; it is already dangerous; heading towards catastrophe. 2. Climate change is urgent; it needs us to act quickly and drastically; 3. But how? Climate change is linked to economic growth. Can we re-invent growth?

Slide 3: Hockey stick: CO2+ Temperature increase

Slide 4: CO2 emissions linked to energy and linked to economic growth

Slide 5: The challenge: what is the least risky target? 1. If annual emissions remain at today’s level, greenhouse gas levels would be close to 550 ppm by 2050 2. This would mean temperature increase of 3- 5°C 3. The difference in temperature between the last ice age (3 million years ago) and now is 5°C 4. The 2°C target is feasible; but still dangerous

Slide 6: Business as usual is 5°C; even if we stabilise at current levels; increase is dangerous

Slide 7: Impacts: devastation or can we cope? 1. Snow cover will contract. Indian glaciers are beginning to melt fast 2. Hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy precipitation events will increase.. (floods and droughts) 3. Tropical cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) will become more intense 4. Sea levels are expected to increase – intense debate on how high will this be; and by when. But can we wait????

Slide 9: 3-truths: Climate change political and economic challenge 1. Is related to economic growth. No one has built a low carbon economy (as yet) 2. Is about sharing growth between nations and between people. The rich must reduce so that the poor can grow. Create ecological space. 3. Is about cooperation. If the rich emitted yesterday, the emerging rich world will do today. Cooperation demands equity and fairness. It is a pre-requisite for an effective climate agreement.

Slide 10: Drastic reduction needed: For 450 ppm (2°C) reduce 85% by 2050

Slide 12: Historical emissions: A tonne of CO2 emitted in 1850 same value as tonne of CO2 emitted in 2005 P er c api t a bur den (1902-2004) 1200 1000 800 600 P er c api t a bur den (1902-2004) 400 200 0 Uni t ed St at es Uni t ed K i ngdom Chi na I ndi a A ust r al i a M oz ambi que

Slide 13: 2 tonnes is what the world can sustain…

Slide 14: 1 US citizen = 107 Bangladeshis 134 Bhutanese 19 Indians 269 Nepalese Unacceptable. Need to secure ecological space for growth

Slide 15: 2007: High on rhetoric. Low on action 1. Need urgent action. We are running out of time. Need deep cuts: 50-80% over 1990 levels by 2050 2. Kyoto agreed to small change – 5% cuts 3. Even that failed. US and Australia walked out. EU emissions increased last year 4. Pressure on China and India..

Slide 17: Is India the new villain? Between 1990-2004: Total emissions increase US: 1.2 billion tonnes India: 0.7 billion tonnes Per capita increase US: 1.3 tonnes/per person/year/increase= 20.6 tonnes India: 0.4 tonnes/per person/year/increase=1.2 tonnes

Slide 18: Decreased 3% only because of decrease of economies under transition. Rich have increased

Slide 19: Only UK and Germany have cut. But beginning to increase again. Gas and reunification impact fading…

Slide 20: Big words and small change

Slide 21: No energy transition made Little to reduce energy emissions

Slide 22: No more kindergarten approach Framework for cooperation: 2. Industrialised countries to take deep cuts (30% by 2020) minimum. US and Australia must join 4. Emerging rich and rest to participate, not by taking legally binding cuts but through a strategy to ‘avoid’ future emissions. What is the framework for low-carbon growth strategy?

Slide 23: B. The economics and options for India and the world India: Inventory: 1994

Slide 24: Options exist: re-invent growth. Avoid pollution 1. We can build “clean” coal power stations 2. Can build distributed power grid, based on renewable… 3. Can re-invent mobility to move to public transport.. 4. 18% emissions from land use changes. Can protect forests; Can plant new forests.. 5. Large numbers of people already renewable – because of poverty. How can we leapfrog from being poor to rich without taking fossil route?

Slide 25: Clean, new and buried coal  ‘Clean’ Coal Technologies: Increase efficiency  Supercritical – high steam pressure and temperature – 40% efficiency – low with Indian coal  FBC/PFBC – Suitable for Indian coal – smaller size – similar efficiency gains as supercritical  IGCC – Convert coal to gas – 50% efficiency and more - expensive

Slide 26: Clean, new and buried coal  Most new large plants on supercritical – cost effective – R&M of old and new plants should be based on this technology  FBC suitable for distributed generation  IGCC – only high-end technology from climate perspective - needs technology transfer and financial assistance

Slide 27: Other ‘coal’ options? Are they clean or viable? 1. Carbon-capture and storage – burn coal, separate CO2, compress it and bury it underground -- hope that it will not come out.  Uncertain, site-specific and expensive – mitigation cost up to $ 50/ tonne CO2  Dump and forget syndrome – constant leakage monitoring. Chances of accidental releases  Can’t afford bad ideas. Can’t waste time

Slide 28: Nuclear  Cost, safety, proliferation and waste  Expensive – both capital as well as generation – even without including waste disposal costs

Slide 29: New renewables: still small part of world primary energy supply: less than 0.5% 39% of India’s primary energy comes from renewables – because of chulhas of poor

Slide 30: How will the world re-invent its energy system?

Slide 31: Renewables: Cost – the biggest barrier

Slide 32: Wind energy: make it blow in right direction  India: 7500 mw of wind installed. 70% of new renewable in country.  Now feed-in preferential tariffs provided by different state regulators  But needs more support – higher tariffs + grid connectivity  Needs monitoring to ensure we know how much is used; not just how much is installed

Slide 33: Solar concentrating power India built one of first plants. Not utilised. Not developed. Now world is discovering the potential of ‘raw’ sun Spain, Algeria, Australia, Israel, Morocco… building plants to harvest sun In India, Mathania plan failed (given up) Potential: one block of one district Barmer can generate enough power for the country

Slide 34: Re-invent mobility: can India succeed where the world has failed?

Slide 35: Efficiency is not the answer; sufficiency.. Can we restrain cars? In UK, cars became more efficient; emissions increased as people bought more; drove more

Slide 36: Survival vs luxury emissions Biofuels: for vehicles of rich or chulhas of poor? All corn in US converted to ethanol will substitute 12 per cent of gasoline use. Best option? Or use to leapfrog poor from old renewable to new renewable

Slide 37: Forests: to plant and to avoid cutting Land use changes are 18% of current emissions. 2 challenges: c. To plant new forests to add to sinks d. To ‘avoid’ deforestation by payment of forests as forests Current “offsets” not working – cannot use forests as garbage dumps

Slide 38: C. The framework for action. But.. The South will do what North has done Will first get rich; add to pollution; then invest in cleaning it up A low-carbon growth strategy will cost money. The South will need to invest in efficiency, pollution control and protecting forests as forests before it gets rich This needs change in global framework

Slide 39: CDM instrument to make this transition. But designed to fail 1. Aim to get cheap emission reduction has lead to projects which do little. Low hanging fruits. Cannot pay for real change. 2. Designed for ineffective action – additional to policy – leads to nothing 3. Designed for mutual self-interest between private sector; not public interest; Has become the ‘Cheap’ ‘Convoluted’ ‘Corrupt’ Development Mechanism

Slide 40: CDM: Convoluted and small By November 2007: total global CDM portfolio: 2.29 billion tonnes worth of CO2 equivalent to be credited over 10 years. Will offset much less than 1 per cent of total emissions over next 10 years Small, ineffective

Slide 41: CDM: cheap and corrupt CDM is a market mechanism, not climate action. Cheap options used; no high end transfer of technology. No investment in clean coal.. No investment for poor

Slide 42: Industry hype? FICCI report: December 2007 Total CERs expected till 2012: 429 million Total CERs issued till Nov 2007: 29 million (7 per cent of what they expect?) Already invested: Rs 1,19,000 crore (US$ 30 billion) in CDM projects What have we got in return???? Price unknown (will have to get US$ 70/cer to recover their investment?)

Slide 43: Agenda for Bali and after: Reform CDM 1. Provide a floor price for CDM projects to push for high end technologies and climate-effective projects; 2. Make CDM addition to government policy. Currently, additionality means that project only support if additional to business as usual. Ridiculous. Designed for industry. Indian and foreign. Not designed for big change.

Slide 44: Extraordinary crisis, needs big response.. 1. Need to cut emissions by 80% by 2050; 2. Need to peak emissions by 2015 and then cut 3. New (zero-fossil) technologies are not competitive or limited 4. Will not work without changes in consumption. Have to reduce and have to change the way we do business Business as usual will not work. No soft answers will work Not a green ‘party’ but a green ‘revolution’ needed Will cost. Otherwise we will all pay

Slide 45: Freezing inequity not acceptable „ If we accept 80% cut for rich; 20% cut for emerging rich and poor over 1990 levels by 2050 then: „ US reduces from 19.3 tonnes/capita to 4 tonnes per capita „ India reduces from 0.8 tonnes/capita to 0.6 tonnes/capita „ China reduces from 2.1 tonnes/capita to 1.7 tonnes/capita Global justice????

Slide 46: Not acceptable

Slide 47: Per capita entitlements 1. Need framework for cooperation 2. Need framework that can push for energy transformation Best option is to create per capita emission rights; Use the rights to create global carbon market; Use the market (with rules for public good) to make the transition into low carbon economies

Slide 48: Contract and converge

Slide 49: D. Issues in Bali: a ‘watchlist’ 1. The post-Kyoto framework: what will it be? Comprehensive global agreement (including India and China) or long-term aspirational goals (no commitments) or hard targets for the rich countries 2. Adaptation fund (SBI/2007/15): % of CDM proceeds. Currently, not operationalised. 3. Technology transfer: contact group setup 4. Reducing emissions from deforestation from developing countries (SBSTA/2007/MISC.14 Adds.1-3): EU wants deforestation to be part of post 2012 framework

Slide 50: D. Issues in Bali: a ‘watchlist’ 5. CDM issues a. Should destruction of HFC-23 included in CDM b. Should the limit for small scale afforestation and deforestation projects be increased c. Should CCS be included under CDM

Slide 51: Our position for Bali++++ 1. Agree on legally binding emission targets for rich Annex-1 countries: 30% by 2020 3. If ‘rich’ countries opt out; cut penalties; stop trade; do not allow them to participate in technology agreements. This round belongs to the industrialised countries. 5. The engagement of the South will be through a financial framework to avoid emissions

Slide 52: Design for effective action 4. Reform CDM so that it is effective – countries do sector-wise plans; look at costs and then invest through CDM 5. Put a floor of US$50 for tonne of carbon so that it allows for high end technology transfer 6. Sign technology transfer agreements – let rich countries buy private technologies and make them available in key sectors

Slide 53: Politics for future Cannot freeze global inequity; Cannot survive climate change – rich or poor; Climate is not about the failure of the market; It is about our failure to make the markets work for public and common good… It is about politics..

Slide 54: Otherwise road to ‘common’ hell