<ul><li>Global warming in an unequal world : A global deal for effective action </li></ul><ul><li>CSE, New Delhi </li></ul>
The crisis: the science of climate change <ul><li>Climate change is  real ; it is already dangerous; heading towards catas...
<ul><li>Hockey stick: </li></ul><ul><li>CO2+ </li></ul><ul><li>Temperature </li></ul><ul><li>increase  </li></ul>
CO2 emissions linked to energy and linked to economic growth
The challenge: what is the least risky target?  <ul><li>If annual emissions remain at today’s level, greenhouse gas levels...
Business as usual is 5°C; even if we stabilise at current levels; increase is dangerous
Impacts : devastation or can we cope?  <ul><li>Snow cover will contract. Indian glaciers are beginning to melt fast </li><...
 
3-truths: Climate change political and economic challenge <ul><li>Is related to  economic growth . No one has built a low ...
Drastic reduction needed: For 450 ppm (2°C) reduce  85% by 2050
 
Historical emissions : A tonne of CO2 emitted in 1850 same value as tonne of CO2 emitted in 2005
2 tonnes is what the world can sustain…
1 US citizen = <ul><li>107  Bangladeshis </li></ul><ul><li>134  Bhutanese </li></ul><ul><li>19  Indians </li></ul><ul><li>...
2007: High on rhetoric. Low on action <ul><li>Need urgent action. We are running out of time. Need deep cuts: 50-80% over ...
 
Is India the new villain?  <ul><li>Between  1990-2004 :  </li></ul><ul><li>Total emissions increase </li></ul><ul><li>US: ...
Decreased 3% only because of decrease of economies under transition. Rich have increased
<ul><li>Only UK and Germany have cut.  </li></ul><ul><li>But beginning to increase again.  </li></ul><ul><li>Gas and reuni...
Big words and small change
No energy transition made  Little to reduce energy emissions
No more kindergarten approach <ul><li>Framework for cooperation:  </li></ul><ul><li>Industrialised countries to take deep ...
B. The economics and options for India and the world India: Inventory: 1994
Options exist: re-invent growth. Avoid pollution <ul><li>We can build “clean” coal power stations  </li></ul><ul><li>Can b...
Clean, new and buried coal <ul><li>‘ Clean’ Coal Technologies: Increase efficiency </li></ul><ul><li>Supercritical – high ...
Clean, new and buried coal <ul><li>Most new large plants on supercritical – cost effective – R&M of old and new plants sho...
Other ‘coal’ options? Are they clean or viable? <ul><li>1.  Carbon-capture and storage – burn coal, separate CO 2 , compre...
Nuclear <ul><li>Cost, safety, proliferation and waste </li></ul><ul><li>Expensive – both capital as well as generation – e...
New renewables: still small part of world primary energy supply: less than 0.5%   39% of India’s primary energy comes from...
How will the world re-invent its energy system?
Renewables: Cost – the biggest barrier
Wind energy: make it blow in right direction <ul><li>India: 7500 mw of wind installed. 70% of new renewable in country.  <...
Solar concentrating power <ul><li>India built one of first plants. Not utilised. Not developed. </li></ul><ul><li>Now worl...
Re-invent mobility: can India succeed where the world has failed?
Efficiency is not the answer; sufficiency.. Can we restrain cars? In UK, cars became more efficient; emissions increased a...
Survival vs luxury emissions Biofuels: for vehicles of rich or chulhas of poor?  All corn in US converted to ethanol will ...
Forests: to plant and to avoid cutting <ul><li>Land use changes are 18% of current emissions. </li></ul><ul><li>2 challeng...
C. The framework for action. But.. <ul><li>The South will do what North has done  </li></ul><ul><li>Will first get rich; a...
CDM instrument to make this transition. But designed to fail  <ul><li>Aim to get cheap emission reduction has lead to proj...
CDM: Convoluted and small <ul><li>By November 2007: total global CDM portfolio: 2.29 billion tonnes worth of CO2 equivalen...
CDM: cheap and corrupt CDM is a market mechanism, not climate action. Cheap options used; no high end transfer of technolo...
Industry hype?  <ul><li>FICCI report: December 2007 </li></ul><ul><li>Total CERs expected till 2012: 429 million  </li></u...
Agenda for Bali and after: Reform CDM <ul><li>Provide a floor price for CDM projects to push for high end technologies and...
Extraordinary crisis, needs big response.. <ul><li>Need to cut emissions by 80% by 2050; </li></ul><ul><li>Need to peak em...
Freezing inequity not acceptable <ul><li>If we accept 80% cut for rich; 20% cut for emerging rich and poor over 1990 level...
Not acceptable
Per capita entitlements <ul><li>Need framework for cooperation </li></ul><ul><li>Need framework that can push for energy t...
Contract and converge
D. Issues in Bali: a ‘watchlist’ <ul><li>1. The post-Kyoto framework: what will it be? Comprehensive global agreement (inc...
D. Issues in Bali: a ‘watchlist’ <ul><li>5. CDM issues </li></ul><ul><li>a. Should destruction of HFC-23 included in CDM <...
Our position for Bali++++ <ul><li>Agree on legally binding emission targets for rich Annex-1 countries: 30% by 2020 </li><...
Design for effective action <ul><li>4.  Reform CDM so that it is effective – countries do sector-wise plans; look at costs...
Politics for future <ul><li>Cannot freeze global inequity; </li></ul><ul><li>Cannot survive climate change – rich or poor;...
Otherwise road to ‘common’ hell
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Climate Equity December 2007

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Global warming in an unequal world: A global deal for effective action

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Climate Equity December 2007

  1. 1. <ul><li>Global warming in an unequal world : A global deal for effective action </li></ul><ul><li>CSE, New Delhi </li></ul>
  2. 2. The crisis: the science of climate change <ul><li>Climate change is real ; it is already dangerous; heading towards catastrophe. </li></ul><ul><li>Climate change is urgent ; it needs us to act quickly and drastically; </li></ul><ul><li>But how ? Climate change is linked to economic growth. Can we re-invent growth? </li></ul>
  3. 3. <ul><li>Hockey stick: </li></ul><ul><li>CO2+ </li></ul><ul><li>Temperature </li></ul><ul><li>increase </li></ul>
  4. 4. CO2 emissions linked to energy and linked to economic growth
  5. 5. The challenge: what is the least risky target? <ul><li>If annual emissions remain at today’s level, greenhouse gas levels would be close to 550 ppm by 2050 </li></ul><ul><li>This would mean temperature increase of 3-5°C </li></ul><ul><li>The difference in temperature between the last ice age (3 million years ago) and now is 5°C </li></ul><ul><li>The 2°C target is feasible; but still dangerous </li></ul>
  6. 6. Business as usual is 5°C; even if we stabilise at current levels; increase is dangerous
  7. 7. Impacts : devastation or can we cope? <ul><li>Snow cover will contract. Indian glaciers are beginning to melt fast </li></ul><ul><li>Hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy precipitation events will increase.. (floods and droughts) </li></ul><ul><li>Tropical cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) will become more intense </li></ul><ul><li>Sea levels are expected to increase – intense debate on how high will this be; and by when. But can we wait???? </li></ul>
  8. 9. 3-truths: Climate change political and economic challenge <ul><li>Is related to economic growth . No one has built a low carbon economy (as yet) </li></ul><ul><li>Is about sharing growth between nations and between people. The rich must reduce so that the poor can grow. Create ecological space. </li></ul><ul><li>Is about cooperation . If the rich emitted yesterday, the emerging rich world will do today. Cooperation demands equity and fairness. It is a pre-requisite for an effective climate agreement. </li></ul>
  9. 10. Drastic reduction needed: For 450 ppm (2°C) reduce 85% by 2050
  10. 12. Historical emissions : A tonne of CO2 emitted in 1850 same value as tonne of CO2 emitted in 2005
  11. 13. 2 tonnes is what the world can sustain…
  12. 14. 1 US citizen = <ul><li>107 Bangladeshis </li></ul><ul><li>134 Bhutanese </li></ul><ul><li>19 Indians </li></ul><ul><li>269 Nepalese </li></ul><ul><li>Unacceptable. Need to secure ecological space for growth </li></ul>
  13. 15. 2007: High on rhetoric. Low on action <ul><li>Need urgent action. We are running out of time. Need deep cuts: 50-80% over 1990 levels by 2050 </li></ul><ul><li>Kyoto agreed to small change – 5% cuts </li></ul><ul><li>Even that failed. US and Australia walked out. EU emissions increased last year </li></ul><ul><li>Pressure on China and India .. </li></ul>
  14. 17. Is India the new villain? <ul><li>Between 1990-2004 : </li></ul><ul><li>Total emissions increase </li></ul><ul><li>US: 1.2 billion tonnes </li></ul><ul><li>India: 0.7 billion tonnes </li></ul><ul><li>Per capita increase </li></ul><ul><li>US: 1.3 tonnes/per person/year/increase= 20.6 tonnes </li></ul><ul><li>India: 0.4 tonnes/per person/year/increase=1.2 tonnes </li></ul>
  15. 18. Decreased 3% only because of decrease of economies under transition. Rich have increased
  16. 19. <ul><li>Only UK and Germany have cut. </li></ul><ul><li>But beginning to increase again. </li></ul><ul><li>Gas and reunification impact fading… </li></ul>
  17. 20. Big words and small change
  18. 21. No energy transition made Little to reduce energy emissions
  19. 22. No more kindergarten approach <ul><li>Framework for cooperation: </li></ul><ul><li>Industrialised countries to take deep cuts (30% by 2020) minimum. US and Australia must join </li></ul><ul><li>Emerging rich and rest to participate, not by taking legally binding cuts but through a strategy to ‘ avoid ’ future emissions. </li></ul><ul><li>What is the framework for low-carbon growth strategy? </li></ul>
  20. 23. B. The economics and options for India and the world India: Inventory: 1994
  21. 24. Options exist: re-invent growth. Avoid pollution <ul><li>We can build “clean” coal power stations </li></ul><ul><li>Can build distributed power grid, based on renewable… </li></ul><ul><li>Can re-invent mobility to move to public transport.. </li></ul><ul><li>18% emissions from land use changes. Can protect forests; Can plant new forests.. </li></ul><ul><li>Large numbers of people already renewable – because of poverty. How can we leapfrog from being poor to rich without taking fossil route? </li></ul>
  22. 25. Clean, new and buried coal <ul><li>‘ Clean’ Coal Technologies: Increase efficiency </li></ul><ul><li>Supercritical – high steam pressure and temperature – 40% efficiency – low with Indian coal </li></ul><ul><li>FBC/PFBC – Suitable for Indian coal – smaller size – similar efficiency gains as supercritical </li></ul><ul><li>IGCC – Convert coal to gas – 50% efficiency and more - expensive </li></ul>
  23. 26. Clean, new and buried coal <ul><li>Most new large plants on supercritical – cost effective – R&M of old and new plants should be based on this technology </li></ul><ul><li>FBC suitable for distributed generation </li></ul><ul><li>IGCC – only high-end technology from climate perspective - needs technology transfer and financial assistance </li></ul>
  24. 27. Other ‘coal’ options? Are they clean or viable? <ul><li>1. Carbon-capture and storage – burn coal, separate CO 2 , compress it and bury it underground -- hope that it will not come out. </li></ul><ul><li>Uncertain, site-specific and expensive – mitigation cost up to $ 50/ tonne CO 2 </li></ul><ul><li>Dump and forget syndrome – constant leakage monitoring. Chances of accidental releases </li></ul><ul><li>Can’t afford bad ideas. Can’t waste time </li></ul>
  25. 28. Nuclear <ul><li>Cost, safety, proliferation and waste </li></ul><ul><li>Expensive – both capital as well as generation – even without including waste disposal costs </li></ul>
  26. 29. New renewables: still small part of world primary energy supply: less than 0.5% 39% of India’s primary energy comes from renewables – because of chulhas of poor
  27. 30. How will the world re-invent its energy system?
  28. 31. Renewables: Cost – the biggest barrier
  29. 32. Wind energy: make it blow in right direction <ul><li>India: 7500 mw of wind installed. 70% of new renewable in country. </li></ul><ul><li>Now feed-in preferential tariffs provided by different state regulators </li></ul><ul><li>But needs more support – higher tariffs + grid connectivity </li></ul><ul><li>Needs monitoring to ensure we know how much is used; not just how much is installed </li></ul>
  30. 33. Solar concentrating power <ul><li>India built one of first plants. Not utilised. Not developed. </li></ul><ul><li>Now world is discovering the potential of ‘raw’ sun </li></ul><ul><li>Spain, Algeria, Australia, Israel, Morocco…building plants to harvest sun </li></ul><ul><li>In India, Mathania plan failed (given up) </li></ul><ul><li>Potential: one block of one district Barmer can generate enough power for the country </li></ul>
  31. 34. Re-invent mobility: can India succeed where the world has failed?
  32. 35. Efficiency is not the answer; sufficiency.. Can we restrain cars? In UK, cars became more efficient; emissions increased as people bought more; drove more
  33. 36. Survival vs luxury emissions Biofuels: for vehicles of rich or chulhas of poor? All corn in US converted to ethanol will substitute 12 per cent of gasoline use. Best option? Or use to leapfrog poor from old renewable to new renewable
  34. 37. Forests: to plant and to avoid cutting <ul><li>Land use changes are 18% of current emissions. </li></ul><ul><li>2 challenges: </li></ul><ul><li>To plant new forests to add to sinks </li></ul><ul><li>To ‘avoid’ deforestation by payment of forests as forests </li></ul><ul><li>Current “offsets” not working – cannot use forests as garbage dumps </li></ul>
  35. 38. C. The framework for action. But.. <ul><li>The South will do what North has done </li></ul><ul><li>Will first get rich; add to pollution; then invest in cleaning it up </li></ul><ul><li>A low-carbon growth strategy will cost money. The South will need to invest in efficiency, pollution control and protecting forests as forests before it gets rich </li></ul><ul><li>This needs change in global framework </li></ul>
  36. 39. CDM instrument to make this transition. But designed to fail <ul><li>Aim to get cheap emission reduction has lead to projects which do little. Low hanging fruits. Cannot pay for real change. </li></ul><ul><li>Designed for ineffective action – additional to policy – leads to nothing </li></ul><ul><li>Designed for mutual self-interest between private sector; not public interest; </li></ul><ul><li>Has become the ‘ Cheap ’ ‘ Convoluted ’ ‘ Corrupt ’ Development Mechanism </li></ul>
  37. 40. CDM: Convoluted and small <ul><li>By November 2007: total global CDM portfolio: 2.29 billion tonnes worth of CO2 equivalent to be credited over 10 years. </li></ul><ul><li>Will offset much less than 1 per cent of total emissions over next 10 years </li></ul><ul><li>Small, ineffective </li></ul>
  38. 41. CDM: cheap and corrupt CDM is a market mechanism, not climate action. Cheap options used; no high end transfer of technology. No investment in clean coal.. No investment for poor
  39. 42. Industry hype? <ul><li>FICCI report: December 2007 </li></ul><ul><li>Total CERs expected till 2012: 429 million </li></ul><ul><li>Total CERs issued till Nov 2007: 29 million (7 per cent of what they expect?) </li></ul><ul><li>Already invested: Rs 1,19,000 crore (US$ 30 billion) in CDM projects </li></ul><ul><li>What have we got in return???? Price unknown (will have to get US$ 70/cer to recover their investment? ) </li></ul>
  40. 43. Agenda for Bali and after: Reform CDM <ul><li>Provide a floor price for CDM projects to push for high end technologies and climate-effective projects; </li></ul><ul><li>Make CDM addition to government policy. Currently, additionality means that project only support if additional to business as usual. </li></ul><ul><li>Ridiculous. Designed for industry. Indian and foreign. Not designed for big change. </li></ul>
  41. 44. Extraordinary crisis, needs big response.. <ul><li>Need to cut emissions by 80% by 2050; </li></ul><ul><li>Need to peak emissions by 2015 and then cut </li></ul><ul><li>New (zero-fossil) technologies are not competitive or limited </li></ul><ul><li>Will not work without changes in consumption. Have to reduce and have to change the way we do business </li></ul><ul><li>Business as usual will not work. No soft answers will work </li></ul><ul><li>Not a green ‘party’ but a green ‘revolution’ needed </li></ul><ul><li>Will cost. Otherwise we will all pay </li></ul>
  42. 45. Freezing inequity not acceptable <ul><li>If we accept 80% cut for rich; 20% cut for emerging rich and poor over 1990 levels by 2050 then: </li></ul><ul><li>US reduces from 19.3 tonnes/capita to 4 tonnes per capita </li></ul><ul><li>India reduces from 0.8 tonnes/capita to 0.6 tonnes/capita </li></ul><ul><li>China reduces from 2.1 tonnes/capita to 1.7 tonnes/capita </li></ul><ul><li>Global justice???? </li></ul>
  43. 46. Not acceptable
  44. 47. Per capita entitlements <ul><li>Need framework for cooperation </li></ul><ul><li>Need framework that can push for energy transformation </li></ul><ul><li>Best option is to create per capita emission rights; </li></ul><ul><li>Use the rights to create global carbon market; </li></ul><ul><li>Use the market (with rules for public good) to make the transition into low carbon economies </li></ul>
  45. 48. Contract and converge
  46. 49. D. Issues in Bali: a ‘watchlist’ <ul><li>1. The post-Kyoto framework: what will it be? Comprehensive global agreement (including India and China) or long-term aspirational goals (no commitments) or hard targets for the rich countries </li></ul><ul><li>2. Adaptation fund (SBI/2007/15): % of CDM proceeds. Currently, not operationalised. </li></ul><ul><li>3. Technology transfer: contact group setup </li></ul><ul><li>4. Reducing emissions from deforestation from developing countries (SBSTA/2007/MISC.14 Adds.1-3): EU wants deforestation to be part of post 2012 framework </li></ul>
  47. 50. D. Issues in Bali: a ‘watchlist’ <ul><li>5. CDM issues </li></ul><ul><li>a. Should destruction of HFC-23 included in CDM </li></ul><ul><li>b. Should the limit for small scale afforestation and deforestation projects be increased </li></ul><ul><li>c. Should CCS be included under CDM </li></ul>
  48. 51. Our position for Bali++++ <ul><li>Agree on legally binding emission targets for rich Annex-1 countries: 30% by 2020 </li></ul><ul><li>If ‘rich’ countries opt out; cut penalties; stop trade; do not allow them to participate in technology agreements. This round belongs to the industrialised countries. </li></ul><ul><li>The engagement of the South will be through a financial framework to avoid emissions </li></ul>
  49. 52. Design for effective action <ul><li>4. Reform CDM so that it is effective – countries do sector-wise plans; look at costs and then invest through CDM </li></ul><ul><li>5. Put a floor of US$50 for tonne of carbon so that it allows for high end technology transfer </li></ul><ul><li>6. Sign technology transfer agreements – let rich countries buy private technologies and make them available in key sectors </li></ul>
  50. 53. Politics for future <ul><li>Cannot freeze global inequity; </li></ul><ul><li>Cannot survive climate change – rich or poor; </li></ul><ul><li>Climate is not about the failure of the market; </li></ul><ul><li>It is about our failure to make the markets work for public and common good… </li></ul><ul><li>It is about politics.. </li></ul>
  51. 54. Otherwise road to ‘common’ hell

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