C S E Roundtable Diesel

Slide 1: Is clean diesel a myth or a solution? Issues for discussion Roundtable: Is clean diesel a myth or a solution? Centre for Science and Environment New Delhi, December 10, 2007

Slide 2: Diesel and air quality challenge……

Slide 3: 2000-04: Delhi made the first quantum leap On fuel quality Introduced low sulphur fuels and petrol with 1 per cent benzene Mandated pre-mix petrol to two- and three-wheelers On vehicle technology Enforced Bharat staae II emissions standards in 2000, five years ahead of schedule (BS III in 2005) On alternative fuels Implemented largest ever CNG programme Largest ever public transport bus fleet on natural gas Other measures Capped the number of three-wheelers Phased out 15 year old commercial vehicles Strengthened vehicle inspection programme (PUC) Efforts made to bypass transit traffic Set up independent fuel testing laboratories to check fuel adulteration

Slide 4: It made a difference…avoided huge amount of pollution PM10 at ITO Traffic Intersection P M 10 trend pro j o n pre ecti P M 10 trend P o stS uprem e C o urt di recti ns o S uprem e C o urt di recti ns o 600 500 Microgramme per cubic metre 400 300 200 100 0

Slide 5: Deadly particles: After a short respite the curve turns upward RSPM 180 microgram/ cubic metre 2002 120 2003 2004 2005 60 2006 0 Res. Areas Ind. Areas Source: Teri

Slide 6: NOx levels: rising steadily NOx NAAQS (R) 60 microgram per cubicmetre 50 1998 microgram/ cubic metre 1999 40 2000 30 2001 2002 20 2003 10 2004 2005 0 2006 Res. Areas Ind. Areas Source: Teri

Slide 7: PM2.5: ITO 2007 Very high levels of PM2.5 during winter months. Frequent violation of CPCB’s proposed 24-hourly standard of 60 microgram per cubic meter 754 800 Monthly average 693 657 700 Monthly maximum 600 microgram/ cubic metre Proposed 24-hourly standard 500 400 344 284 248 300 243 200 145 138 134 131 108 107 97 74 66 100 46 42 39 31 0 April August ptember October January February July June May March

Slide 8: Winter of 2007. Daily average levels Monitoring at ITO, Delhi (Aug to October 2007) 338.1 PM2.5 NO2 SO2 340 310 280 250 240.5 microgram/cubic metre 220 190 160 130 100 70 40 10 Aug 07 - Oct 07 Source: Teri

Slide 9: India: Proliferating hotspots More than half of the cities monitored record critical levels of PM10 100% 4 90% 30 80% Number of cities in per cent 57 70% 60% 50% 96 40% 70 23 30% 20% 19 10% 1 0% SO2 NO2 PM10 Critical Pollution Level* (More than 90 microgramme per cubic metre) Air Quality Classification: High Pollution Level* (60 to 90 microgramme per cubic metre) Moderate Pollution Level* (30 to 60 microgramme per cubic metre) Low Pollution Level* (0 to 29 microgramme per cubic metre)

Slide 10: In microgramme per cubic metre 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Fa De ri lh da i b K ad an Lu p u 2004 2002 2000 ck r n Va ow ra Lu n a dh si Ba ia nn Co ga a im lo ba re to r Sa e l K em ol k cities H ata Ja o m wr sh ah ed 2003 2001 D pu r ha nb a Jh d a So ria Ch l NOx levels: rising trend in some an apu dr r ap U da ur ip ur Standard for residential areas

Slide 11: Health burden • Pollution level of 1991-92: World Bank estimated 7,491 premature deaths in Delhi. • As PM10 drops between 1993 and 2002, World Bank estimates saving of 3,629 lives per year. • 2006-07: Levels are up again. We are yet to estimate the death toll today. It could be rising again. -- Even an increase of only 10 microgramme/cu m of PM2.5 leads to significant increases in health risks. High exposure increase hospitalisation for asthma, lung diseases, chronic bronchitis, heart damage and lung cancer. -- 65% of Delhites have impaired lung function (CNCI 2004) -- 26% of Delhiites have undergone chromosomal damage due to air pollution that can be precursor to cancer (CNCI study 2004-05)

Slide 12: Unsustainable: Nearly 4.5 million registered vehicles. Still adding nearly 1000 a day 2000-01 2005-06 1200 994 963 1000 Number of vehicles 800 654 580 564 600 333 308 400 231 200 0 Cars Tw o w heelers Total private Total vehicles vehicles (private +commercial) Source: Teri

Slide 13: Vehicle numbers and pollution Vehicle registrations ITO: CO 1996 - 2005 Three fold increase since 1991 6.0 4.5 4.8 3.9 4.2 5.0 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.6 6 4.0 2.6 2.7 3.0 millions 2.4 3.0 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.2 5 2.0 concentration in milligram/cum 1.0 0.0 4 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 2006 2004 3 2 *fiscal year 1 Average concentration Delhi NO2 trend 8-hourly standard: 2 milligram/cum 0 50 60 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 45 50 40 microgram per cubic meter Vehicular growth correlates 35 40 No. of Veh. in lakhs 30 strongly with rising NOx 25 30 levels. But CO levels 20 20 15 delinked 10 10 5 0 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Res. Areas Ind. Areas No. of Veh

Slide 14: Dieselised Diesel cars, jeep and vans in Delhi 140000 120000 100000 Numbers 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 Agency Red alert on diesel 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 exhaust US EPA (2002) Likely human carcinogen Diesel car Diesel Jeep Diesel Van CARB (1998) Toxic air contaminant 1998: Diesel cars only 2% of the new car HEI (1995) Potential to cause cancer sales in Delhi. NIOSH (1988) Potential occupational carcinogen 2007: Diesel cars nearly 30% of new car IARC (1989) Probable human sales carcinogen 2010: Projected to be 50% of the sales WHO IPCS Probable human (1996) carcinogen

Slide 15: Hidden subsidies and costs…. The lower price of diesel, tax sops leads to increasing use of “poor” person’s fuel by the rich car owners. The 2006 Union budget made the link between tax cuts and small diesel cars more explicit. The government defined small cars as one with length not exceeding 4,000 mm with an engine capacity not exceeding 1200 cc for petrol cars and 1500 cc for diesel cars. Diesel car prices dropped and sales rocketed since… …

Slide 16: High exposure DIESELISED AIR • Vehicle emissions Diesel’s contribution to ambient PM2.5 contribute significantly to human exposure. Higher health impacts levels close to traffic areas and roads. In three cities among six cities – reviewed by the World Bank shows that vehicles contribute an average 50 percent of the direct PM emissions but 70 per cent of PM exposure. – The WHO report of 2005 Health effects of transport-related air pollution weighed in that epidemiological evidences for the adverse health effects of exposure to transport related air pollution is increasing.

Slide 17: Our questions today?

Slide 18: Are we getting ‘clean’ diesel? Indian metros today (Euro III) 0.9 Diesel Car (NOx norm) 0.09 Diesel Car (PM norm) 0.8 0.08 EU Europe 0.7 0.07 Japan Gramme per km Japan Gramme per km 0.6 0.06 USA USA 0.5 0.05 0.04 0.4 0.03 0.3 0.02 0.2 0.01 0.1 0 0 2008 2012 2000 2002 2004 2006 2010 2014 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Slide 19: License to pollute? One diesel car emits as much NOx as 3 to 5 petrol cars. PM is several times higher

Slide 20: “New diesel cars in India are clean” - A Myth? Post 2005 diesel car model: High levels of PM, NOx and air toxics; Overwhelms the CO2 advantage: A crippling trade-off Post 2005 Models NOx emissions 0.3 NOx PM 0.02 0.25 0.2 0.015 0.15 PM (gm/km) 0.1 0.01 0.05 0.005 0 Petrol cars (> 1400cc) Diesel cars (< 1600cc) 0 Petrol cars (> 1400cc) Diesel cars (< 1600cc) Toxics CO2 0.45 175 0.4 170 0.35 Toxics (gm/km) 165 CO2 (gm/km) 0.3 160 0.25 155 0.2 150 0.15 145 0.1 140 0.05 0 135 Petrol cars (>1400cc) Diesel cars (<1600cc) Petrol cars (> 1400cc) Diesel cars (< 1600cc)

Slide 21: Toxicity of diesel emissions? Source: MP Walsh

Slide 22: But aren’t diesel cars increasing in Europe? Why should we worry?... Europe: Share of diesel cars in new sales in Western Europe 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Belgium France Germany Italy Norway Spain Switzerland United Total Kingdom 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 (Ist 6month) European cities are violating air quality standards: NO2 levels strongly corelate with PM2.5 in European cities

Slide 23: Can diesel help to meet both air quality and climate goals? What about rebound effect?...... UK distance driven, fuel use and emissions from private car transport: 1996-2005 Source: The environment in your pocket 2007, Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. UK Govt. •Between 1996 and 2005 the amount of fuel used for each 100 km driven by new cars in the UK decreased by 6% as a result of improvements in efficiency. •Emissions of CO2 from private cars rose by 4% in the same period, mainly because of increasing distances travelled by car, which rose by 10%. •PM10 emissions declined by 29% between 1996 and 2000 but subsequently decreased by only a further 3% … the improvements offset by an increase in the use of, and emissions from, diesel cars.

Slide 24: What is clean diesel? Source: ICCT

Slide 25: More questions: What about ultrafines? Particle numbers of different Engines Source: Ricardo

Slide 26: Sulphur block: How soon can our refineries supply clean diesel? -- Some refineries are more capable, can produce cleaner fuels at competitive costs IOCL, Digboi The future roadmap? IOCL, Guwahati BPCL, Mumbai How soon can we have clean BRPL uniform norms across the KRL, Kochi Incremental country? IOCL, Barauni production HPCL, Vaiskh cost of How soon can we leapfrog to HPCL, Mumbai meeting Euro V/VI? Euro III CPCL, Chennai diesel from IOCL, Mathura BIS 2000 Investments are happening IOCL, Haldia level (Auto today. Link them with clean MRPL Fuel Policy standards. IOCL, Gujarat 2002) NRL IOCL, Panipat Reliance 0 1 2 3 4 5 Cost in Rs/litre for BIS 2000 to Euro III Source: Trans Energy Associates, USA Source: Auto Fuel Policy 2002

Slide 27: Even in-use emissions regulation is difficult. Do we have effective solutions? Diesel light motor vehicles 100 80 60 HSU 40 B. Diesel light duty vehicles 20 0 Models of different years Smoke opacity tests ineffective. Vulnerable to fraud. Poor correlation between smoke opacity and PM mass emissions. There can be a risk of misclassifying polluters – Low smoke emissions can also mean high PM emissions! What about in-use NOx? Source: P A nyon et al 2002, Proposed diesel national environment protection measure project 2, Phase 2- vehicle testing, emissions performance testing of 80 in-service diesel vehicles, evaluation & short test protocols, reportprepared f E nvi ronm entA ust i , P arsons A ust i P vtLt , Q ueensl , A ust l or rala rala d and raia

Slide 28: Is retrofitting in-use diesel vehicles a solution? Clean fuel is an opportunity for using advanced emissions control systems to reduce in-use diesel emissions ….. How to design these programmes well for best impact? Need good regulations and enforcement. Pune retrofitment project……..

Slide 29: Can we find fiscal solutions? Fiscal brakes on conventional diesel: Equalise taxes on diesel and petrol? Higher taxes on diesel cars to offset the incentive for fuel? – Currently huge losses of revenue per litre of diesel fuel used to drive a car vis vis petrol. Fiscal measures to speed up clean diesel fuel supply? Capital subsidy for refineries? Surcharge on fuel to create funds to clean up fuels? Etc. Need clear answers and solutions. Or restrict diesel cars.

Slide 30: Thank You