C S E Roundtable Diesel

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Can diesel help to meet both air quality and climate goals? What about rebound effect?Even in-use emissions regulation is difficult.
Do we have effective solutions?

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C S E Roundtable Diesel

  1. 1. Is clean diesel a myth or a solution? Issues for discussion Roundtable: Is clean diesel a myth or a solution? Centre for Science and Environment New Delhi, December 10, 2007
  2. 2. Diesel and air quality challenge……
  3. 3. 2000-04: Delhi made the first quantum leap On fuel quality Introduced low sulphur fuels and p etrol with 1 per cent benzene Mandated pre-mix petrol to two - and three-wheelers On vehicle technology Enforced Bharat staae II emissions standards in 2000, five years ahead of schedule (BS III in 2005) On alternative fuels Implemented largest ever CNG programme Largest ever public transport bus fleet on natural gas Other measures Capped the number of three-wheelers Phased out 15 year old commercial vehicles Strengthened vehicle inspection programme (PUC) Efforts made to bypass transit traffic Set up independent fuel testing laborator ies to check fuel adulteration
  4. 4. It made a difference…avoided huge amount of pollution
  5. 5. Deadly particles: After a short respite the curve turns upward Source: Teri
  6. 6. NOx levels: rising steadily Source: Teri NAAQS (R) 60 microgram per cubicmetre
  7. 7. PM2.5: ITO 2007 Very high levels of PM2.5 during winter months. Frequent violation of CPCB’s proposed 24-hourly standard of 60 microgram per cubic meter
  8. 8. Winter of 2007. Source: Teri Daily average levels Monitoring at ITO, Delhi (Aug to October 2007)
  9. 9. India: Proliferating hotspots More than half of the cities monitored record critical levels of PM10
  10. 10. NOx levels: rising trend in some cities
  11. 11. Health burden <ul><li>Pollution level of 1991-92: World Bank estimated 7,491 premature deaths in Delhi. </li></ul><ul><li>As PM10 drops between 1993 and 2002, World Bank estimates saving of 3,629 lives per year. </li></ul><ul><li>2006-07: Levels are up again. We are yet to estimate the death toll today. It could be rising again. </li></ul><ul><li>-- Even an increase of only 10 microgramme/cu m of PM2.5 leads to significant increases in health risks. High exposure increase hospitalisation for asthma, lung diseases, chronic bronchitis, heart damage and lung cancer.  </li></ul><ul><li>-- 65% of Delhites have impaired lung function (CNCI 2004) </li></ul><ul><li>-- 26% of Delhiites have undergone chromosomal damage due to air pollution that can be precursor to cancer (CNCI study 2004-05) </li></ul>
  12. 12. Unsustainable: Nearly 4.5 million registered vehicles. Still adding nearly 1000 a day Source: Teri
  13. 13. Vehicle numbers and pollution *fiscal year Three fold increase since 1991 Vehicular growth correlates strongly with rising NOx levels. But CO levels delinked
  14. 14. Dieselised Diesel cars, jeep and vans in Delhi 1998: Diesel cars only 2% of the new car sales in Delhi. 2007: Diesel cars nearly 30% of new car sales 2010: Projected to be 50% of the sales Red alert on diesel exhaust Agency Probable human carcinogen WHO IPCS (1996) Probable human carcinogen IARC (1989) Potential occupational carcinogen NIOSH (1988) Potential to cause cancer HEI (1995) Toxic air contaminant CARB (1998) Likely human carcinogen US EPA (2002)
  15. 15. Hidden subsidies and costs…. <ul><li>The lower price of diesel, tax sops leads to increasing use of “poor” person’s fuel by the rich car owners. </li></ul><ul><li>The 2006 Union budget made the link between tax cuts and small diesel cars more explicit. The government defined small cars as one with length not exceeding 4,000 mm with an engine capacity not exceeding 1200 cc for petrol cars and 1500 cc for diesel cars. Diesel car prices dropped and sales rocketed since…… </li></ul>
  16. 16. High exposure <ul><li>Vehicle emissions contribute significantly to human exposure. Higher health impacts close to traffic areas and roads. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>In three cities among six cities reviewed by the World Bank shows that vehicles contribute an average 50 percent of the direct PM emissions but 70 per cent of PM exposure. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The WHO report of 2005 Health effects of transport-related air pollution weighed in that epidemiological evidences for the adverse health effects of exposure to transport related air pollution is increasing. </li></ul></ul>DIESELISED AIR Diesel’s contribution to ambient PM2.5 levels
  17. 17. Our questions today?
  18. 18. Indian metros today (Euro III) Are we getting ‘clean’ diesel?
  19. 19. License to pollute? One diesel car emits as much NOx as 3 to 5 petrol cars. PM is several times higher
  20. 20. “ New diesel cars in India are clean” - A Myth? Post 2005 diesel car model: High levels of PM, NOx and air toxics; Overwhelms the CO2 advantage: A crippling trade-off NOx PM Toxics CO2
  21. 21. Toxicity of diesel emissions? Source: MP Walsh
  22. 22. But aren’t diesel cars increasing in Europe? Why should we worry?... Europe: Share of diesel cars in new sales in Western Europe European cities are violating air quality standards: NO2 levels strongly corelate with PM2.5 in European cities
  23. 23. UK distance driven, fuel use and emissions from private car transport: 1996-2005 <ul><li>Between 1996 and 2005 the amount of fuel used for each 100 km driven by new cars in the UK decreased by 6% as a result of improvements in efficiency. </li></ul><ul><li>Emissions of CO2 from private cars rose by 4% in the same period, mainly because of increasing distances travelled by car, which rose by 10%. </li></ul><ul><li>PM10 emissions declined by 29% between 1996 and 2000 but subsequently decreased by only a further 3% … the improvements offset by an increase in the use of, and emissions from, diesel cars. </li></ul>Can diesel help to meet both air quality and climate goals? What about rebound effect?...... Source: The environment in your pocket 2007, Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. UK Govt.
  24. 24. What is clean diesel? Source: ICCT
  25. 25. More questions: What about ultrafines? Particle numbers of different Engines Source: Ricardo
  26. 26. Sulphur block: How soon can our refineries supply clean diesel? -- Some refineries are more capable, can produce cleaner fuels at competitive costs Incremental production cost of meeting Euro III diesel from BIS 2000 level (Auto Fuel Policy 2002) Source: Auto Fuel Policy 2002 Source: Trans Energy Associates, USA The future roadmap? How soon can we have clean uniform norms across the country? How soon can we leapfrog to Euro V/VI? Investments are happening today. Link them with clean standards.
  27. 27. Poor correlation between smoke opacity and PM mass emissions. There can be a risk of misclassifying polluters – Low smoke emissions can also mean high PM emissions! What about in-use NOx? Source: P Anyon et al 2002, Proposed diesel national environment protection measure project 2, Phase 2- vehicle testing, emissions performance testing of 80 in-service diesel vehicles, evaluation & short test protocols , report prepared for Environment Australia, Parsons Australia Pvt Ltd, Queensland, Austraila Even in-use emissions regulation is difficult. Do we have effective solutions? B. Diesel light duty vehicles Smoke opacity tests ineffective. Vulnerable to fraud.
  28. 28. Is retrofitting in-use diesel vehicles a solution? Clean fuel is an opportunity for using advanced emissions control systems to reduce in-use diesel emissions ….. How to design these programmes well for best impact? Need good regulations and enforcement. Pune retrofitment project……..
  29. 29. Can we find fiscal solutions? Fiscal brakes on conventional diesel: Equalise taxes on diesel and petrol? Higher taxes on diesel cars to offset the incentive for fuel? – Currently huge losses of revenue per litre of diesel fuel used to drive a car vis vis petrol. Fiscal measures to speed up clean diesel fuel supply? Capital subsidy for refineries? Surcharge on fuel to create funds to clean up fuels? Etc. Need clear answers and solutions. Or restrict diesel cars.
  30. 30. Thank You

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