Presented at the 2nd Phase Planning and Review Workshop of the Indo-Ganges BFP, 24-25 February, 2009, Haryana, India

1. Welcome to BFP-IGB Meeting
24-25 Feb.2009, Surajkund, India

2. Targeting Double Dividends in
Indo-Gangetic Basin:
Improving Water Productivity
and Alleviating Poverty
Sub-basin boundary
AVHRR-LULC

3. Content
• Purpose of the Workshop
• Logic and Structure of BFPs
• Brief tour of the Indus-Gangetic realities
• Brief review of WP content
-WP1- Water Poverty
-WP2- Water Resources
-WP3- Water Productivity
-WP4-Institutions
-WP5- Interventions….Change
-WP6- Knowledge Sharing and Impact
• Structure of the Meeting

4. Purpose of the Workshop
•Update and Sharing
-What’s been done in 2008 and before
•Reflection & Discussion
-Are we moving on the right track with the right speed?
-What works, What doesn’t
-How the project can create the desired impact?
•Plan for the Future
-What we will do in 2009 and beyond?
Outputs need to delivered and the impact created……

5. Logic and Structure
Background
Demography Rural poverty
Economic overview Agriculture
What is the overall situation?
Water productivity
Water availability Crop water productivity, kg/m3
Climate water account Water value-adding $/m3
Water allocation water hazards Net value/costs
What is the water balance?
How well is the water used?
Policies and Institutions Farming
Water
Water rights water policies Land rights
Governance Power Infrastructure
Supply chains
Who ‘handles’ the water? Who enables farmer to improve productivity?
Poverty analysis
Rural poverty details
Water-food related factors
What links water, food and poverty?
Interventions
WEAP Trend analysis
Land use change analysis
What are foreseeable risks and opportunities for change?

6. Targeting Double Dividends in Indo-Gangetic Basin:
Improving Water Productivity and Alleviating Poverty
“Indo-Gangetic Basin” “Hunger Index of IGB
IGB Profile Countries”
• Basin area 225 million-ha Countries Rate Scaling Performance Indian States Hunger
• Population (2001) 747 million China 7.1 5.0-9.9 MODERATE Score
• Percentage rural population (2001)
India 75 Nepal 20.6 Bihar 27
Pakistan 68 Pakistan 21.7 Haryana 20
20-29.9 ALARMING
Nepal 86 India 23.7 Punjab 14
Bangladesh 80 Bangladesh 25.2 Rajasthan 21
• Percentage of population
below Poverty line (2000) 30.5 EXTREMELY Uttar Pradesh 22
Ethiopia 31 > 30
• Net cropped area 114 million-ha ALARMING West Bengal 21
• Water use in agriculture 91.4% Source:Welt Hunger Hilfe, IFPRI, Concern Worldwide (October 2008) Madhya Pradesh 31
"What IGB - BFP will do"
ACTION FIELDS OUTPUTS
Poverty Analysis • Mapping sub- national poverty
• Dynamics of spatial and temporal variation of poverty “Putting Action Fields together”
• Gender inequality and water use
Water Availability • Water accounting in the sub-basins of the four
access analysis countries
• Detailed water balances for representative sub-basins
Water Productivity • Spatial variation of agriculture water productivity
analysis • Access spatial linkages with agriculture input, socio-
economic and environmental factors and poverty
• Sub basin assessment of water productivity assessment
Water Institutions • Comparative assessment of existing institutions and
analysis policies
• Pro-poor Agriculture Water Management (AWM)
strategies
“Challenges in IGB”
• Energy- irrigation nexus and fishery cultivation in the
FOCUS Low water productivity abreast with high poverty and eastern basin
environmental degradation • Transboundary issues and legislating context
Intervention analysis • Overview of interventions in productivity improvements
CHALLENGES
and poverty alleviation
•High heterogeneity • Impact assessment of potential intervention
•Transboundary issues Knowledge base • Developing web portal for accumulation and sharing of
•High dependency on groundwater platform existing and generated knowledge
•Dependency on glacier/ice melt & climate change impacts • Developing decision support system
• Targeted dissemination and learning from common
•Demographic pressure
experiences
•High rural population & dependency on natural resources
CONSTRAINTS
•Lack of effective institutions “Preliminary Results”
•Poor information base
•Inadequate targeted interventions KHARIF RABI
•Availability and accessibility of information
TARGETS
•Water-land-gender-poverty relationships
•Assessing water supply and demand
•Mapping water productivity
•Setting the institutional frame for an efficient and equitable water use
•Identifying potential interventions
•Generating Knowledge platform
OUTCOMES Making informed decisions for improving water productivity,
alleviating poverty, and reducing human deprivation
Trends in water productivity in rice, Bangladesh Districts (1968-2004)

7. Socio-economic and water status of
IG Basin countries
Parameters Bangla. India Nepal Pakistan
Acc. to improved water
resources,%
74 86 90 91
Acc.to improved sanitation, % 39 33 35 59
Per cap. Electricity consumption,
kWh
145 594 91 493
Popu. Below national poverty 49.8 28.6 30.9 32.6
line
Agriculture, % of GDP 20.1 18.3 38.2 21.6
Per capita GDP (USD) 406 640 252 632
IRWR (m3/cap./yr) 688 1149 7539 325

8. Freshwater under Threat
Parameter Indus GBM
Resource Stress 0.49 0.39
(scarcity, variation)
Development Pressure 0.51 0.17
(exploitation, DW inaccessibility)
Ecological Insecurity 0.80 0.57
( water pollution, ecosystem deterioration)
Management Challenges 0.57 0.65
(WU inefficiency, Sani. inaccess., Conflict manage)
Vulnerability Index 0.59 0.45
GDP/m3 of water use 3.34* 3.47*
*Global average:$8.6/m3; Avg five top food producers(Bra,Chi,Fra,Mex,US):$ 23.8/m3
Source: Babel and Wahid(2008)( Freshwater under Threat: South Asia)

9. Biomass Dynamics in Indus and Ganges
Basin level scale using AVHRR Mega Dataset
Scaled
NDVI
January, 1984 (Rabi crop) May, 1984 (driest period) September, 1984 (Kharif crop-
wettest period)
May, 2000 (driest period) September, 2000 (kharif crop-
January, 2000 (Rabi crop) wettest period)

10. Flooding in the Ganges Basin
250
Eastern Asia
SouthEast Asia
South Asia
West Asia
Damages Bangladesh India Nepal Pakistan
200
Deaths 52,033 55,656 5,637 8,877
Number of flood events
150
Population
304.63 763.99 2.98 37.69
affected (million)
100
Homeless 1321000
4219724 84925 4234415
0
50
Injured 102390 1561 1072 1981
0
Estimated Cost
60-69 70-79 80-89 90-99 00-08 12038.4 29417.2 0.977 2865.2
Period
(US$ M)

11. WP1: Poverty and Water Poverty Analysis
Upali, Stefanos, Gias…..Madar
Poverty analysis package reviews and
analyzes the existing poverty and water-
poverty-gender information in order to bridge
the gap/s between aggregate and specific
analyses of poverty; illustrate the links
between inter-sectoral uses of water and
links between water and other determinants
of poverty.

12. Trends of Poverty
Spatial variation of rural poverty in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal in 2000

13. Water, Land and Poverty Nexus
100 HCR 1999-
2000
HCR and % Area (%)
80
60 Net irrigated
area-% of net
sown area
Rural head count ratio
40
Groundwater
across lad holding classes
20 irrigat ed area
- % of t otal
0
Rural head count ratio across land holding classes
H aryana
Kerala
Bihar
Gujarat
Punjab
Karnataka
Maharashtr a
Madh ya Prade sh
Aru nacha l Prad esh
H ima chal Prade sh
An dhra Prade sh
Rajastha n
Tamil Na du
Uttar Prade sh
Orissa
Sikkim
Assam
West Bengal
60
45
HCR (%)
30
15
Rural head count ratio and net
0
irrigated and groundwater irrigated
medium
Medium
Marginal
Small
Landless
Large
large
Very
Small-
area
Land holding size
India Pakistan Bangladesh Nepal

14. WP2: Water Availability
Luna, Upali, Asad, Ambili …….
Water availability
( How much and where?)
Climate ( and its Change) Water account
Water allocation Water hazards
What is the water balance?

15. Whole Basin Indus and Gangetic Basin Sub-Basins
• PODIUM-Sim for the whole
IG Basin
•WEAP Modelling for
individual Ganges and Indus
basins and scenario building
•SWAT/ SWAP Models for
Sub-Basins
Major challenge: inaccessible river
flow data, transboundary nature

16. TRWR and per capita water resources in the Indus and Gangetic
IGB basins TRWR Per capita water resources (m3/person)
(km3) 1990 2000 2025 2050
Indus- India 97 2487 2109 1590 1732
Indus- Pakistan 190 1713 1332 761 545
Ganga - India 663 1831 1490 969 773
Water resources potential and availability of the Indian portion of IGB
Water Resources Indus Ganges Total IGB
(India)
Average annual surface water potential (km3) 73.3 523.0 596.3
Estimated Utilizable flow excluding ground water (km3) 46.0 250.0 296.0
Total replenishable ground water resources (km3) 26.5 171.0 197.5
Per Capita available water (m3) 2382 1951 2166.5
Static fresh ground water resource (km3) of IG Basin
River Alluvium/ Unconsolidated Hard Total
Basin Rocks Rocks
Indus 1,334.9 3.3 1,338.2
Ganga 7,769.1 65 7,834.1

17. Gorai-River Catchment
Study the effect of
upstream water resource
development and as well
as the influence of land use
change on the hydrology
and water balance of the
Gorai River Catchment
500
1965-75 1990-99
400
Flow (MCM)
300
200
Average monthly inflow to the Gorai
100
Catchment measured at Gorai
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec railway-bridge at two time periods
Month

18. WP3: Water Productivity Analysis
Cai, Bharat, Upali, Gias, Susana, Asad
Water Productivity
• Basin performance on agril. water
utlisation
- Crop (livestock, fish ) water productivity kg/m3
- Water value-adding $/m3
- Net value/costs
Factors affecting water productivity
Scope for WP Improvement
How well is the water used?

19. Crop Dominance Map
Introd.
Data A “crop dominance map” of namely year
LULC 2008 shows major crops rice and wheat
Prod. area, and other mixed croplands. Watering
Water sources are also given for IGB map.
Results
Plan

20. Water Productivity Maps
Rice productivity (kg/m3)
Introd.
Data
LULC
Mean AVG SDV Min Max
Prod.
0.618 0.618 0.306 0.09 2.5
Water
Results
Plan

21. Other Studies completed, ongoing…….
• Spatio-temporal analysis of district level
rice productivity in Bangladesh
• Water productivity in Rechna-Doab in
Pakistan
• Fish water productivity and poverty in
Bangladesh
• District-level foodgrain water productivity
for India

22. WP4: Institutional Analysis
( Tushaar, Aditi, Dhruba, Sanjiv…RPS)
Policies and Institutions
Water Farming
Land rights Infrastructure
Water rights Water policies
Governance Energy policies Supply chains
Who ‘handles’ the water? What enables farmer to improve productivity?

23. Understanding the impact of selected
economic and legal variables
Impact of
rising diesel
prices on
agricultural
water use
3-5
8-10 m ha
Extent and cost of different sources of irrigation in India

24. Additional Studies……
• Water Control and Land-Lease Markets in
India and Nepal
• Policy and Legal Analysis for IG basin
Countries

25. WP5: Analysis of Interventions
(Bharat, Rajinder,Cai,Asad, Gias..)
Set of physical, institutional
and policy level
interventions having
potential of significantly
improving productivity and
livelihoods
•Water allocation analysis
•Land use change analysis
•Best water management
practices analysis

26. Some potential interventions………..
• Resource conservation (including laser land leveling)
technologies in western IG basin
•Lining of water courses in IBIS (Pakistan)
•Multiple water use systems in Eastern Gangetic basin
•Improved fisheries management in Bangladesh
•Making optimum use of areas afflicted with salinity and
waterlogging
•Potential of improved water management practices in
Eastern Gangetic basin

27. WP6: Knowledge Management and Impact
Pathways (Matin, Bharat and all)
Component Function
Data Management Data acquisition, Collation of spatial data,
prepare metadata
Access to existing Knowledge harvesting, Sharing
knowledge
Knowledge Investigation, analysis, synthesis
Development
Application Informed Decision making
Knowledge Publication, communication, Knowledge portal
Dissemination development

28. Project Work Packages - Relationship
WP-6: Knowledge
WP-5: Intervention
management
Analysis
WP-1: Understand the WP-3: Understand
WP-2: Understand WP-4: Institutional
nature and location water productivity across
water availability Analysis
of water poverty the basin

29. IMPACT PATHWAY – NETWORK MAP – Nepal
WB, UN PC Nepal
UNDP 3
CPWF
2
☺ MOWR
2
WECS
PSC 2
IWMI
GWB
MOA
2 ☺
NGO’s/
Consult 2☺
ants
DOI/CB
1☺ MOLD
S/DIHM RFAI
FO/WUA/ /NARC
WG 1☺ 2☺ 2☺
1☺
District WSDA
Farmer UNIV’s level
s/ WG ☺ GO/INGO 2☺
1☺ ’s
2
Green – Funding agency, Blue – Research partner, ☺-Receptive Numbers show
Red- Scale out of products on the ground, -Neutral degree of importance
Black – Scale up of products at the policy level -No so receptive for change

30. Structure of the Meeting
• After this Session, session on Water Poverty followed by lunch
• In all there shall be six sessions devoted to each of the work
packages
•In each sessions there shall be few in-house presentations and
some very interesting presentations by the potential partners.
•Style- highly relaxed and informal
•Today evening- we shall have a relaxation hour followed by
dinner
•Tomorrow morning the sessions shall begin at 0900 and hope to
be completed by 1630 hours.

31. Tushaar SHAH
Taming the Anarchy:
Groundwater Governance
in South Asia
Appointment as IWMI
Fellow
Congrats!
!!

32. Madar Samad
Regional
Director:
South
ASIA

33. UPALI AMARASINGHE
Promotion ,Publication and Providential
Windfall $$$$$$

34. ADITI MUKHERJEE
GDN Award,
Canberra
For Best Research
Paper
And
Mainstreaming
with
IWMI !!!!!!!

35. Peter McCornick and
Alok Sikka
From IWMI
with love to
Duke
University,
NC
Moving from BFP-IGB Basin Coordinator to
NRAAI

36. THANK YOU VERY
MUCH !!!