Source: TOI
FLASH NOTE
                             ENAM Securities
                             India Research




      ...
General Elections 2009 Ver 2.0


Government formation itself may take a month or more post‐elections, as parties jostle fo...
General Elections 2009 Ver 2.0


The General Elections are likely to be a multi‐dimensional fight: 1) Congress vs BJP 2) C...
General Elections 2009 Ver 2.0


Scenario Analysis for General Election 2009

                                 NDA        ...
General Elections 2009 Ver 2.0


Possible Ministerial Portfolios in case neither National Party wins strong
Weak UPA Coali...
General Elections 2009 Ver 2.0


State‐wise slugfest:
The states with >30 of seats are Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Tamil Nadu, M...
General Elections 2009 Ver 2.0


to BJP/ Congress/ 3rd front. It broke its alliance with BJP & joined with Congress during...
General Elections 2009 Ver 2.0


Projections for 09: State‐wise party tallies
                                            ...
General Elections 2009 Ver 2.0


State‐wise party tallies in the 2004 elections
                                          ...
General Elections 2009 Ver 2.0


APPENDICES
             The Probable King makers of 2009!
             Mayawati (BSP): Re...
General Elections 2009 Ver 2.0


Election Trend: Votes Polled by INC

 600                                               5...
General Elections 2009 Ver 2.0


Glossary
Abbreviation                  Full term                                     Lead...
Gen Elections 2009


Election 09 Schedule: Counting to take place / completed on 16th May
                  Const PH      ...
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Election 2009 Predictions

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Election 2009 Predictions

  1. 1. Source: TOI FLASH NOTE ENAM Securities India Research General Elections 2009 Ver 2.0 COUNTDOWN TO THE BIG FIGHT BEGINS! Poll Projections for Lok Shaba Elections 09 Coalition Enam TOI DNA India Today NDTV* UPA 209 198 184 191‐200 192‐228 NDA 171 176 177 172‐181 151‐180 3rd Front 144 109 182^ 169‐178 125‐152 Note: Inclusions of parties in various fronts vary in these projections. ^In DNA projections Source: Enam Research, Media; 3rd Front includes independents. *Based on Sample size of 51390 A Coalition Government with Congress leading the formation (UPA led coalition) or providing support from the outside seems the most likely outcome.. A market crash is unlikely since the worst fears (3rd front with no support of national party) should not materialize. However, though a weak UPA Coalition may be Durable, it is unlikely to be Decisive and thus won’t inspire confidence to spark a major upturn in the markets. Thus, post‐elections, market should move loosely linked to weight of global liquidity (as witnessed of late), and anticipating fundamental changes and pricing in a delayed / slower growth environment. Near term, anxiety of time taken for government‐formation post‐elections, could flutter markets. Sadly, all this probably translates into another opportunity lost, for India to attract disproportionate fund flows. Election phases: Refer last page: Elections would be in 5 phases starting April 16, and all counting on a single day, ie May 16. (Glossary on page 12 alphabetically provides full names of party abbreviations & names of their leaders alongside. Note INC= Cong). Source: Cartoon by Rajinder Puri Head Research: Nandan Chakraborty Economist: Sachchidanand Shukla Abhinav Vohra Email: nandan@enam.com Email: sachins@enam.com Email: Abhinav.vohra@enam.com Tel: 9122 6754 7601 Tel: 9122 6754 7648 Tel: 9122 6754 7631 ENAM Research is available on Bloomberg (ENAM <Go>), Reuters.com and Firstcall.com 15 April 2009
  2. 2. General Elections 2009 Ver 2.0 Government formation itself may take a month or more post‐elections, as parties jostle for alliances, and subsequently ministerial positions, increasing market‐uncertainty during that period. In high‐impact situations, the impact on eventuation can be worse than pre‐event probability‐based fears. What investors will test at that phase, even more than WHO are the leading ministers (which are often on consensus v/s the one most competent), is the DURABILITY of the Government. Investors/ Corporates, if fearful of the Government’s durability, will not commit resources to bite into any programs unleashed by the new Government, getting the country into a self‐feeding downward spiral of INR depreciation, etc. And a Government fearful of its durability, especially in such a worsening global environment, can introduce policies which can pump in monies which translate into more immediate Consumption kickers (for example more Rural doleouts; also refer the following table) & not jeopardize their political chances. This would contrast the more usual new‐Government’s Investment‐oriented policies which raise India’s trajectory, but have a gestation period. Extra fiscal cost: ~Rs 230 bn if Congress elected & ~Rs 580 bn for a BJP‐led government, from their manifestos. (Salt‐note: these are after all, based on pre‐poll Promises) SOP/ What’s on offer Annual fiscal cost (Rs bn) Party Rice/ Wheat for Below Poverty Line families Congress 25kg/ mth at Rs 3/ kg 97 BJP 35kg/ mth at Rs 2/ kg 210 Farm loans Congress Higher interest subsidy 65 BJP Loans at 4% interest 80 For youth's sake Congress Scholarships for 0.1 mn SC/ ST students, skill development 70 BJP Student loans at 4% interest, project for sporting talent 40 Tax relief Congress None NIL BJP Hike in exemption limit to Rs 0.3 mn 250 Source: Media Scenario Analysis: Refer page 4: We have projected seat‐counts for the 3 major fronts & their potential allies/ combinations post‐elections. While we hope for scenarios 1 & 2 (Majority BJP/ Congress), the more likely scenario is 3 (weak UPA coalition). If that too doesn’t eventuate, we have projected desperate post‐ election scenario 4. 1. Majority NDA= BJP+ allies forming a Government: Looks Remote. 2. Majority UPA= Congress+ allies: Only if the Congress can swing atleast 30 more seats from BJP strongholds, can it, alongwith existing allies, come within striking distance (245+) of forming a strong coalition, by inducting a miscellany of minor parties post‐elections – Looks difficult! 3. Weak UPA Coalition: If the Congress gets only 140, then UPA can induct newer allies, but would have to sacrifice corresponding 2004 allies who may be state rivals – Most likely: Maybe Durable but Indecisive. 4. Desperate Scenarios: If any of the above can’t eventuate: a) 3F tries to form a Government with outside support from Congress/ BJP. Or b) NDA with outside support of BSP+ TDP. Or c) An even weaker UPA coalition, with Outside support of Left. But a Re‐election in a year or two can not be ruled out in such cases: Non‐Durable + Indecisive. APRIL 2009 ENAM Securities 2
  3. 3. General Elections 2009 Ver 2.0 The General Elections are likely to be a multi‐dimensional fight: 1) Congress vs BJP 2) Congress vs Regional and 3) Regional Party Slugfest. Following table provides the no of seats being contested in each State, i.e. the potential addressable opportunity for each party. For Maharashtra, out of the total 42 constituencies, 26 seats are contested between Congress & BJP and 22 seats between NCP & Shiv Sena. And in Orissa, out of 21, 13 seats are contested between Congress & BJD while the rest between Congress & BJP. Multi‐dimensional fight in 2009 – Addressable opportunity for Cong/ BJP= 333/ 193 only Direct fight Congress vs BJP Congress vs Regional Regional parties’ slugfest State No of State No of State No of seats* seats* seats* Madhya Pradesh 29 Andhra Pradesh (Congress vs 42 UP (BSP vs SP) 80 TDP / Praja Rajyam) Karnataka 28 Kerala (Congress vs Left) 20 Bihar & Jharkhand 54 (JDU vs RJD + LJP) Gujarat 26 Orissa (Congress vs BJD) 13 Tamil Nadu 39 (AIDMK vs DMK) Rajasthan 25 Punjab (Congress vs SAD) 13 Maharashtra 22 (NCP vs Shiv Sena) Maharashtra 26 Haryana (Congress vs HVP) 10 Others 15 N E states + Sikkim 15 Chhattisgarh 11 W Bengal (Congress + 42 Trinamool Congress vs Left) Delhi 7 Others* 26 Total 193 140 210 Source: ENAM Research Note: Others of 26 in column 1= Orissa (8), Uttaranchal (5), HP (4), Goa (2), Union Territories (7). Of the total of 543 seats, a simple majority of 272 is required to form a Government. Thus, either of the national parties BJP/ Congress, along with their core allies, needs to garner atleast 170 ‐ 200 seats. Thus, the growing influence of regional parties, and hence a Coalition Government is an inevitability. Hence, we have made a Scenario exercise of the prospects of how the 3 groups (NDA, UPA & 3F) could form coalition governments/ alliances/ outside support. Please refer table on next page: The 1st category of Core allies are the current pre‐election groupings. A 2nd set of Extended allies are possible alignments (pre & post elections) which are ideologically stable configurations, though not as committed as the above Core set. Governments formed by the above 2 sets are likely to be decisive & durable. The 3rd set is a Scenario analysis of Swings in parties of the 2nd set, ONLY in order to form a Government. While these combinations may not be ideologically in conflict, they have rarely come together in the past due to state rivalry. Such set has a chance of durability, but with little decisiveness. The 4th set is the final Scenario analysis of Desperate combinations if none of the above eventuate, where parties in ideological conflict come together (or rather, “Clash to power”). Both durability and decisiveness are suspect) Notes: State‐swings: Due to MNS’ emergence in Maharashtra, NCP could gain beyond our projections out of split votes in SS & BJP. In UP, Kalyan Singh’s inclusion in SP to garner more Hindu votes could lose its traditional Muslim votes. Note Chiranjeevi has launched a new party Praja Rajyam in AP with no particular ideological stance, which could ally with any combination post‐elections. Average seats won: The averages (high, low) of seats won by major parties in the 6 General elections since 1989 are: BJP 145 (182, 120), Cong 163 (244, 114) & Left 42 (53, 28). APRIL 2009 ENAM Securities 3
  4. 4. General Elections 2009 Ver 2.0 Scenario Analysis for General Election 2009 NDA UPA 3rd Front Party Seat Range Existing Party Seat Range Existing Party Seat Range Existing Proj.09 (+/‐) Seats Proj.09 (+/‐) Seats Proj.09 (+/‐) Seats BJP 125 15 138 Congres s 140 25 145 Communi s t 35 15 51 Other Core Core Allies Shi v Sena 10 5 12 TC 10 5 (TRS, RSP, 10 5 15 (Pre‐ AIFB, JDS) elections) Other Core 6 5 12 Total 141 162 Total 150 145 Total 45 66 JD(U) 30 15 6 RJD 15 10 24 TDP 20 10 5 Extended DMK 3 5 17 AIADMK 30 10 0 Allies NCP 15 5 9 BJD 5 5 11 (Pre/Post SP 15 10 36 PMK 4 5 6 Elections) Others 11 10 16 BSP 40 10 19 Total 30 6 Total 59 102 Total 99 41 Total (Core + 171 209 144 Extended) AIADMK (in AIADMK 30 27 NCP 15 l i eu of DMK) BJD 5 TDP 20 RJD 15 Swing (Outs i de) Possibilities/ NCP 15 BSP (i n l i eu 25 JDU (i n l i eu 15 Outside Support (Outs i de) of SP) of RJD) Pra ja 10 10 Pra ja 10 10 Pra ja Ra jya m 10 Ra jya m Ra jya m Total 60 Total 82 Total 55 Total (Core + Extended 231 >272 199 + Swing) BSP 40 10 JDU (i n l i eu 15 Cong. / BJP 140 Desperate (Outs i de) of RJD) (Outs ide) Combin‐ TDP 20 10 Communi s t 35 ations (Outs i de) Total 60 Total 50 Total 140 Total(Core + Ext + Swing+ >272 >272 >272 Desp) Source: ENAM Research The rest of this note is structured as follows: 1. Possible Ministerial Portfolios in case neither National Party wins strong 2. Dynamics in key States 3. State‐wise Party‐tallies: Our Projections, 2004 tallies, (Separate Excel attached to this report, where these projections feed into the above Scenario table; you can play around using your estimates to automatically reconstruct the above Scenario table) Appendices: Profiles of King‐makers, Election trends of major national parties, Glossary Election schedule APRIL 2009 ENAM Securities 4
  5. 5. General Elections 2009 Ver 2.0 Possible Ministerial Portfolios in case neither National Party wins strong Weak UPA Coalition: If the Congress gets only 140, then UPA can get in AIADMK (sacrificing DMK), BSP (sacrificing SP) and TDP, to form a coalition Government: Composition of Ministry Party Proj Seats Leader Portfolio Congress 140 Sonia Gandhi Nominates PM, FM, External Affairs, Commerce TC 10 Mamata Banerjee Labor RJD 15 Lalu Prasad Yadav Railways/Coal NCP 15 Sharad Pawar Industry/ Agriculture AIADMK 30 Jayalalithaa Telecom, CM of TN BSP 40 Mayawati Power TDP 20 C Naidu Foreign Minister Others 11 Total 281 Source: ENAM Research 3rd Front: 3F tries to form a Government swinging in NCP, & with outside support from Congress/ BJP: Composition of Ministry Party Proj Seats Leader Portfolio BSP 40 Mayawati Finance, Power Left 35 P Karat Labor, Home AIADMK 30 Jayalalithaa Telecom, Transport TDP 20 C Naidu External. Affairs NCP 15 Sharad Pawar PM Congress / BJP 140 Sonia Gandhi / L.K Advani Total 280 Source: ENAM Research Incase 3F forms a Government; both Sharad Pawar and Chandrababu Naidu could be PM candidate, depending on who the 3rd takes outside support from. Congress would prefer its old NCP ally while BJP would be more comfortable with Chandrababu Naidu who on an individual party level has had no ideological differences with them. Source: Cartoons by Prasad R. APRIL 2009 ENAM Securities 5
  6. 6. General Elections 2009 Ver 2.0 State‐wise slugfest: The states with >30 of seats are Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, West Bengal & Andhra Pradesh. In West Bengal, the Left has weakened considerably, given the progressively worsening conditions of Bengali Muslims & especially after Nandigram & Nuke opposition, which will benefit the TMC & Congress. Accordingly, deal makers would emerge from regional slug‐fests and thus, the key states to watch out in the upcoming elections would be leaders of the above other states. Key States of Deal Makers Yr Party Seats Won 1984 INC 83 1989 JD 54 1991 BJP 51 1996 BJP 52 Yr Party Seats Won 1998 BJP 57 Yr Party Seats Won 1984 INC 43 J&K 1999 BJP 29 1984 INC 48 1989 INC 28 HP 2004 SP 35 1989 JD 32 1991 INC 38 Punj Uttarkhand 1991 JD 31 1996 BJP 18 Haryana ARP 1996 JD 22 Delhi 1998 INC 33 Raj UP Assam 1998 BJP 20 1999 SS 15 Bihar 1999 BJP 23 2004 BJP 13 Guj MP WB WB 2004 RJD 22 Chhattisgarh Orissa Yr Party Seats Won Maha Yr Party Seats Won 1984 INC 25 1984 TDP 30 AP 1989 INC 27 Karnataka 1989 INC 39 1991 INC 28 1991 INC 25 1996 TMCM 20 Kerala TN 1996 INC 22 1998 AIADMK 18 1998 INC 21 1999 DMK 12 1999 TDP 29 2004 DMK 16 2004 INC 29 Source: Election Commission Uttar Pradesh (UP). (80 seats) Key fight – BSP vs. SP + Cong: Mayawati of BSP should garner 40‐60 seats (from state election trends) making her the Queenie deal‐maker. No CORE ideological/ economic/ foreign policy differences with BJP/ Congress, on an individual party level. Hence, on an individual party level, she could comfortably ally with either. BSP would prefer a Congress alliance since Left (her 3rd front ally) and dalit muslims (her significant vote bank) have ideological conflict with BJP. SP’s gaining significantly looks bleak after the inclusion of Kalyan Singh from BJP which could swing its muslim votes to BSP. Tamil Nadu (TN) (39 seats) Key fight – AIADMK vs DMK: This state has consistently shown the trend that it is a 1 or 0 game between the two parties. DMK is looking weak after 14 MPs resigned in October 2008, demanding an end to the violence against civilians in Sri‐Lanka. Also, 40% of urban TN is severely hit by the current economic slowdown, raising anti‐incumbency potential. AIADMK would be open to provide support APRIL 2009 ENAM Securities 6
  7. 7. General Elections 2009 Ver 2.0 to BJP/ Congress/ 3rd front. It broke its alliance with BJP & joined with Congress during the ’99 elections, re‐ joined with BJP during ‘04 elections, but didn’t remain aligned, post‐defeat. Maharashtra (48 seats) Key fight – BJP + SS vs Cong + NCP: The key battle to watch out for would be between NCP and Shiv Sena. NCP is expected to gain (15‐20 seats vs 9) and more importantly, enjoy the split vote share of the Shiv Sena camp after the emergence of MNS from Shiv Sena cadres. This would make Sharad Pawar a key swing potential as his earlier fallout with Congress shows that his national ambitions are far greater than extended support as a congressman. Andhra Pradesh (AP) (42 seats) Key fight – TDP vs Congress: Congress can’t better its 2004 stellar performance due to the Satyam episode the land‐scam (Maytas/ DMRC), which tarnishes its clean Government image. Chandrababu Naidu (TDP) remains strong especially in its urban strongholds + making massive efforts in rural AP to make good his earlier debacle. He could garner ~30 seats and & is unlikely to tie up with its erstwhile ally BJP after its 2005 splat (at least for now) – though it COULD swing in with the Congress too, despite his anti‐Congress electoral platform. Bihar/ Jharkhand (54 seats) Key fight – JDU vs RJD: JDU should gain significantly (30‐45 seats) due to Nitesh Kumar’s “for the people/ state” Narendra Modi ‐ like projection among the people. He is extending his vote‐bank among Dalit & Muslim constituencies, traditionally LP Yadav (RJD) strongholds. Although JDU has been a staunch BJP ally, it has no core ideological differences with Congress/ 3rd front, making Nitesh Kumar another important post‐election deal maker. Source: Cartoon by Unnikrishnan APRIL 2009 ENAM Securities 7
  8. 8. General Elections 2009 Ver 2.0 Projections for 09: State‐wise party tallies rd NDA UPA 3 Front Extended Extended Extended Others Core Core Core Praja Rajyam Shiv Sena Congress AIDMK Others RPI‐A JD(U) Total JMM JD(S) DMK MNF PMK CPM AITC AIFB AGP SAD NCP NPF TDP RSP KEC SDF BSP JKN TRS RJD BJD BJP CPI TC SP A&N Islands 1 1 AP 8 2 20 2 10 42 Arun. Pradesh 2 2 Assam 2 9 2 1 14 Bihar 2 25 3 10 40 Chandigarh 1 1 Chhattisgarh 10 1 11 Daman & Diu 1 1 Delhi 1 6 7 DNH 1 1 Goa 1 1 2 Gujarat 20 6 26 Haryana 10 10 HP 1 3 4 J&K 2 2 2 6 Jharkhand 5 5 4 14 Karnataka 10 15 3 28 Kerala 1 12 3 1 3 20 Lakshadweep 1 1 MP 20 9 29 Maharashtra 10 10 12 15 1 48 Manipur 2 2 Meghalaya 1 1 2 Mizoram 1 1 Nagaland 1 1 Orissa 10 6 5 21 Pondicherry 1 1 Punjab 3 2 8 13 Rajasthan 21 4 25 Sikkim 1 1 TN 3 3 30 3 39 Tripura 2 2 UP 10 15 15 40 80 Uttaranchal 2 3 5 WB 1 12 10 12 3 2 2 42 Total 125 10 2 2 1 1 30 140 10 15 3 15 15 1 1 1 2 4 2 29 6 2 2 2 4 20 30 5 4 40 9 10 543 rd Coalition NDA UPA 3 Front Others Total 171 209 144 19 Source: Election Commission, ENAM Research APRIL 2009 ENAM Securities 8
  9. 9. General Elections 2009 Ver 2.0 State‐wise party tallies in the 2004 elections rd NDA UPA 3 Front Extended Extended Extended Others Core Core Core Ind + Others Shiv Sena Congress MDMK RPI‐A JD(U) Total JMM JD(S) DMK MNF PMK CPM AITC LJNS AIFB AGP SAD NCP NPF TDP RLD RSP KEC SDF BSP RJD JKN BJD TRS BJP CPI SP A&N Islands 1 1 AP 29 5 5 3 42 Arun. Pradesh 2 2 Assam 2 9 2 1 14 Bihar 5 5 3 22 4 1 40 Chandigarh 1 1 Chhattisgarh 10 1 11 Daman & Diu 1 1 Delhi 1 6 7 DNH 1 1 Goa 1 1 2 Gujarat 14 12 26 Haryana 1 9 10 HP 1 3 4 J&K 2 2 2 6 Jharkhand 1 6 2 4 1 14 Karnataka 18 8 2 28 Kerala 1 12 3 1 3 20 Lakshadweep 1 1 MP 25 4 29 Maharashtra 13 12 13 9 1 48 Manipur 1 1 2 Meghalaya 1 1 2 Mizoram 1 1 Nagaland 1 1 Orissa 7 2 1 11 21 Pondicherry 1 1 Punjab 3 8 2 13 Rajasthan 21 4 25 Sikkim 1 1 TN 10 16 2 2 5 4 39 Tripura 2 2 UP 10 9 35 19 4 3 80 Uttaranchal 3 1 1 5 WB 1 6 26 3 3 3 42 Total 138 12 8 2 1 1 6 145 24 17 9 36 1 1 1 2 5 4 2 42 9 5 3 3 4 5 11 6 19 14 4 3 543 rd Coalition NDA UPA 3 Front Others Total 168 247 107 21 Source: Election Commission, ENAM Research APRIL 2009 ENAM Securities 9
  10. 10. General Elections 2009 Ver 2.0 APPENDICES The Probable King makers of 2009! Mayawati (BSP): Reigning Queen in the key state of UP which boasts of 80 seats – the largest in the country. Since the 2004 general election wherein her party won only 19 seats, Mayawati's fortunes have soared. In the last state assembly elections a little over a year ago, BSP swept to power, winning 206 of the 403 seats and more importantly, had leads in 55 of the state's 80 parliamentary constituencies. Her party also polled well in at least 60 parliamentary seats outside Uttar Pradesh, making her a pan‐ Indian Dalit icon of sorts. The upshot is that her party has become a factor in about 10 states and now has MLAs in Bihar, Rajasthan, Chhhattisgarh, Haryana and Uttarakhand. It commands the fourth biggest share (5.3 %) of the national vote higher than the SP's 4.3 % and slightly lower than the CPM's 5.7 %. In UP, BSP relentlessly expanded its vote‐share and seats from 9.4% and 11 seats in 1989, to 11.1% and 67 in 1993, to 19.6 % and 67 in 1996, to 23.2 % and 98 in 2002 & an even more impressive 30.5 % vote share and 206 of 403 seats to became UP's first party to win a majority in 17 years. It made substantial gains among the OBCs and broke into the SP's traditional Muslim base with 26 Muslim MLAs vs. the SP's 21. J Jayalalithaa (AIADMK): or Amma as she is popularly known has supported both the Congress and the BJP at different times at the centre. In the May 2007 Legislative assembly elections Jayalalitha's AIADMK suffered a defeat at the hands of the DMK‐led Democratic Progressive Alliance although she herself managed to get elected. She is also known as an administrator willing to take unpopular decisions. Sharad Pawar (NCP): The ambitious ex‐Congress man and now the President of the NCP moved back to state level politics scene after his fall out from the Congress Party. He refused to accept Sonia Gandhi as the Congress party leader and chose to move back to state level politics. While Pawar’s NCP is an ally of the Congress in the UPA government, he may be open for partnering with others in future. Chandrababu Naidu (TDP): Before the tables turned he was the only Indian politician to have made it to the list of “dream cabinet” for the Time magazine. Widely known for his modern outlook to administration he has been the Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh for two times in a row. Naidu’s style of working is more like that of a CEO than a quintessential politician. A firm believer in using technology to help the common man he prefers the state to be run professionally as an organization rather than as a bureaucracy saddled with red‐tape. Nitish Kumar (JD‐U): In him, Lalu Prasad Yadav (RJD) met his waterloo in assembly elections in 2005. He has a combination of realpolitik and an intuitive grasp of socialist politics prevalent in Bihar that is pivoted on caste and Bihari sub‐ nationalism. He has been a key ally of the NDA and BJP will have to keep him in good humour for a post‐poll alliance. If the BJP fails to retain his faith post‐elections, JDU, which is likely to improve significantly to his 2004 tally of 7 seats may emerge as a key king maker. APRIL 2009 ENAM Securities 10
  11. 11. General Elections 2009 Ver 2.0 Election Trend: Votes Polled by INC 600 50 Average seats won since 1989: 163 (Hi: 244, (Nos) (%) Low: 114) 500 45 Major vote share loss after 1984 due to the 400 40 emergence of BJP as a national party 300 35 200 30 100 25 0 20 1984 1989 1991 1996 1998 1999 2004 Seats Contested Seats Won Vote Share (RHS) Source: Election Commission Election Trend: Votes Polled by BJP 600 30 Average seats won since 1989: 145 (Hi: 182, (Nos) (%) Low: 120) 500 25 BJP has been steadily losing vote share since 400 20 last two elections. 300 15 200 10 100 5 0 0 1984 1989 1991 1996 1998 1999 2004 Seats Contested Seats Won Vote Share (RHS) Source: Election Commission Election Trend: Votes Polled by Left (CPM + CPI) 140 9.5 Average seats won since 1989: 42 (Hi: 53, Low: (Nos) (%) 120 9.0 28) 8.5 100 8.0 80 7.5 60 7.0 6.5 40 6.0 20 5.5 0 5.0 1984 1989 1991 1996 1998 1999 2004 Seats Contested Seats Won Vote Share (RHS) Source: Election Commission APRIL 2009 ENAM Securities 11
  12. 12. General Elections 2009 Ver 2.0 Glossary Abbreviation Full term Leader AIADMK All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam Jayalalithaa Jayaram AGP Asom Gana Parishad Chandra Mohan Patowary AIFB All India Forward Bloc D.D. Shastri AIMIM All India Majlis‐E‐Ittehadul Muslimmen Asaduddin Owaisi AITC All India Trinamool Congress Mamata Banerjee BJD Biju Janata Dal Naveen Patnaik BJP Bharatiya Janata Party Rajnath Singh BNP Bharatiya Navshakti Party Delkar Mohanbhai Sanjibhai. BSP Bahujan Samaj Party Mayawati Kumari CPI Communist Party of India A. B. Bardhan CPI (M) Communist Party of India (Marxist) Prakash Karat DMK Dravid Munnetra Kazhagam M .Karunanidhi EC Election Commission N. Gopalaswami FPM Federal Party of Manipur Gangmumei Kamei HVP Haryana Vikas Party Bansi Lal INC Indian National Congress Sonia Gandhi INLD Indian National Lok Dal Om Prakash Chautala JD (U) Janata Dal (United) Nitish Kumar JD (S) Janata Dal (Secular) H. D. Deve Gowda JKN Jammu & Kashmir National Conference Omar Abdullah JMM Jharkhand Mukti Morcha Shibu Soren J&KPDP Jammu & Kashmir Peoples Democratic Party Ms Mehbooba Mufti, KEC Kerala Congress K. M. George LJSP Lok Jan Shakti Party Ram Vilas Paswan MDMK Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam Vaiko MLKSC Muslim League Kerala State Committee E. Ahmed MNF Mizo National Front Pu Zoramthanga MNS Maharashtra Navnirman Sena Raj Thackeray NCP Nationalist Congress Party Sharad Pawar NDA National Democratic Alliance Atal Bihari Vajpayee NPF Nagaland Peoples Front Dr. Shürhozelie PMK Pattali Makkal Katchi K .Mani PRP Praja Rajyam Party Chiranjeevi RJD Rashtriya Janata Dal Lalu Prasad Yadav RLD Rashtriya Lok Dal Ajit Singh RSP Revolutionary Socialist Party T. J. Chandrachoodan SAD Shiromani Akali Dal Parkash Singh Badal SAD (M) Shiromani Akali Dal (SS Mann) Simranjit Singh Mann SAP Samata Party Nitish Kumar / George Fernandes SDF Sikkim Democratic Front Pawan Kumar Chamling SP Samajwadi Party Mulayam Singh Yadav SS Shiv Sena Uddhav Thackeray TDP Telegu Desam Party N. Chandrababu Naidu TRS Telangana Rashtra Samithi K. Chandrashekar Rao UPA United Progressive Alliance Sonia Gandhi Source: Election Commission Election related websites 1) www.eci.gov.in/ 2) www.myneta.info/ 3) http://ibnlive.in.com/politics/ 3) www.google.co.in/intl/en/landing/loksabha2009/ 4) www.jaagore.com/ 5) http://ceo.maharashtra.gov.in/ APRIL 2009 ENAM Securities 12
  13. 13. Gen Elections 2009 Election 09 Schedule: Counting to take place / completed on 16th May Const PH Poll dates, constituency Const PH Poll dates, constituency 16‐Apr 23‐Apr 30‐Apr 7‐May 13‐May 16‐Apr 23‐Apr 30‐Apr 7‐May 13‐May Ph1 Ph2 Ph3 Ph4 Ph5 Ph1 Ph2 Ph3 Ph4 Ph5 AP 42 2 22 20 Punjab 13 2 4 9 Arun. P 2 1 2 Rajasthan 25 1 25 Assam 14 2 3 11 Sikkim 1 1 1 Bihar 40 4 13 13 11 3 TN 39 1 39 Goa 2 1 2 Tripura 2 1 2 Gujarat 26 1 26 UP 80 5 16 17 15 18 14 Haryana 10 1 10 WB 42 3 14 17 11 HP 4 1 4 Chhattisgarh 11 1 11 J&K 6 5 1 1 1 1 2 Jharkhand 14 2 6 8 Karnataka 28 2 17 11 Uttarakhand 5 1 5 Kerala 20 1 20 A&N 1 1 1 MP 29 2 13 16 Chandigarh 1 1 1 Maharashtra 48 3 13 25 10 DNH 1 1 1 Manipur 2 2 1 1 D & Diu 1 1 1 Meghalaya 2 1 2 Delhi 7 1 7 Mizoram 1 1 1 Lakshadweep 1 1 1 Nagaland 1 1 1 Puducherry 1 1 1 Orissa 21 2 10 11 Source: Election Commission; Note: Const = Constituencies that each state fields, PH = Phases, which are divided into 5. Constituencies within each state will vote on the phases/dates allocated to it. This document is provided for assistance only and is not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice, and nothing in this document should be construed as an advice to buy or sell or solicitation to buy or sell the securities of companies referred to in this document. The intent of this document is not in recommendary nature Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult its own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. The investment discussed or views expressed may not be suitable for all investors Enam Securities Private Limited has not independently verified all the information given in this document. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information and opinions contained in this document The Disclosures of Interest Statement incorporated in this document is provided solely to enhance the transparency and should not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. The Company reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement as may be required from time to time without any prior approval Enam securities Private Limited, its affiliates, their directors and the employees may from time to time, effect or have effected an own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent in or for the securities mentioned in this document. They may perform or seek to perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company referred to in this report. Each of these entities functions as a separate, distinct and independent of each other. The recipient should take this into account before interpreting the document This report has been prepared on the basis of information, which is already available in publicly accessible media or developed through analysis of ENAM Securities Private Limited. The views expressed are those of analyst and the Company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed therein This document is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose. Neither this document nor any copy of it may be taken or transmitted into the United State (to U.S.Persons), Canada, or Japan or distributed, directly or indirectly, in the United States or Canada or distributed or redistributed in Japan or to any resident thereof. The distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law, and persons into whose possession this document comes should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions Neither the Firm, not its directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information. Copyright in this document vests exclusively with ENAM Securities Private Limited. APRIL 2009 ENAM Securities 13

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