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  • สำนักงานคณะกรรมการพัฒนาการเศรษฐกิจและสังคมแห่งชาติ ( สศช .) ได้สำรวจภาวะธุรกิจในไตรมาสที่ 3/2542 และคาดการณ์แนวโน้มไตรมาสที่ 4/2542 ซึ่งได้สรุปผลการสำรวจดังนี้
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    • 1. Thailand Economic Situation in 2002 Arkhom Termpittayapaisith Assistant Secretary-General National Economic and Social Development Board 28 August 2002
    • 2. GDP in 1 st quarter of 2002
    • 3. GDP Growth in 1Q 02
    • 4. GDP Growth (Supply Side) 2.4 3.6 3.8 3.1 4.3 3.2 <ul><li>Transportation </li></ul>2002 1.8 1.6 1.5 4.6 1.6 -3.0 6.2 1.2 1.8 1.6 Year 2.1 1.0 2.7 2.6 0.5 7.3 3.9 1.4 1.8 4.2 Q4 1.7 0.4 0.4 6.7 3.3 -8.1 6.1 1.2 1.8 0.9 Q1 2001 1.8 1.7 1.2 5.6 2.2 -12.9 5.9 1.5 1.9 1.4 Q2 1.6 3.2 1.7 3.9 0.3 3.0 8.9 0.8 1.9 -1.7 Q3 3.9 4.3 4.8 4.7 2.2 6.7 5.2 4.1 3.8 5.1 Q1 Agriculture <ul><li>Hotels </li></ul><ul><li>Wholesale and Retail Trade </li></ul><ul><li>Electricity and Water Supply </li></ul><ul><li>Construction </li></ul>Non-Agriculture <ul><li>Manufacturing </li></ul>GDP <ul><li>Others </li></ul><ul><li>Financial Intermediation </li></ul>
    • 5. GDP Growth (Demand Side) 1.5 -8.3 -9.4 -12.7 -7.1 -3.5 <ul><li>Imports </li></ul>-0.9 -10.6 -11.8 -14.4 -10.0 -6.0 - Goods 3.9 -5.5 -5.5 -10.6 -1.6 -3.5 - Goods 10.3 1.4 -0.9 0.9 1.2 4.6 - Services 3.5 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.1 2.9 - excluding tourism 5.2 -4.2 -4.6 -8.7 -1.1 -2.0 <ul><li>Exports </li></ul>14.1 4.6 3.1 -3.6 9.6 11.4 - Services 2002 -6.6 5.1 0.8 1.6 3.4 Year -11.0 4.5 -0.2 -4.2 3.0 Q4 -24.1 10.8 -4.1 2.5 3.8 Q1 2001 5.9 5.3 5.4 6.5 3.9 Q2 5.3 0.0 2.3 1.7 2.9 Q3 -5.1 7.8 3.5 8.0 3.6 Q1 - Public - Private <ul><li>Investment </li></ul><ul><li>Private Consumption </li></ul><ul><li>Government Consumption </li></ul>
    • 6. Source of Growth (Demand Side) -1.7 0.0 0.2 -0.4 -1.7 1.6 Inventories 4.0 3.5 2.9 2.7 5.1 3.4 GDP 3.0 -2.8 -3.1 -6.1 -0.7 -1.2 <ul><li>Exports </li></ul>0.7 -4.1 -4.6 -6.9 -3.6 -1.6 <ul><li>Imports </li></ul>3.3 2.1 1.2 2.3 3.8 1.4 Domestic Demand 2002 1.4 -0.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 1.8 Year 1.5 -0.6 0.6 0.0 -0.4 1.6 Q4 0.4 -2.1 1.3 -0.8 0.2 2.0 Q1 2001 2.9 0.4 0.7 1.1 0.6 2.2 Q2 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.2 1.6 Q3 2.4 -0.3 1.0 0.7 0.7 1.9 Q1 - Public - Private <ul><li>Investment </li></ul><ul><li>Private Consumption </li></ul><ul><li>Government Consumption </li></ul>Net Exports
    • 7. Key Economic Indicators
    • 8. Key Economic Indicators Source: BOT 16.1 15.0 15.5 16.0 15.6 16.0 Exports ( Bil. US $ ) 35.8 -70.7 -69.0 -24.8 6.3 -35.4 Gov’t Cash Balance ( Bil. Baht ) 10 6 .1 104.1 104.2 103.5 102.3 101.5 Private Consumption Index 57.8 58.2 55.1 52.2 51.7 55.4 Industrial Capacity Utilization 121.3 118.3 115.6 112.7 112.3 113.3 Manufacturing Production Index ( SA ) (-10.2) 14.3 (-6.3) 45.6 Q1 2002 (2.0) 15.5 (3.4) 50.6 Q2 2001 (-13.9) 14.5 (-13.4) 44.1 Q4 (-9.1) 15.0 (-11.0) 39.7 Q3 (-0.7) (-1.2) ( % Change ) (2.9) 15.2 42.8 Q2 (11.5) 15.9 39.9 Q1 Private Investment Index ( % Change ) Imports ( Bil. US $ )
    • 9. International Trade Source: BOT
    • 10. Growth of Exports Classified by Commodities Source: BOT 1.4 -8.3 -11.1 -15.1 -16.8 -13.1 <ul><li>Unit Value </li></ul>-0.4 14.5 5.9 14.7 20.1 11.1 <ul><li>Volume </li></ul>-11.1 -13.8 -8.6 -0.6 1.0 2.3 <ul><li>Unit Value </li></ul>16.3 8.8 -5.3 -10.5 -1.6 -3.5 <ul><li>Volume </li></ul>3.5 -6.3 -13.4 -11.0 -0.7 -1.2 Total Exports -14.1 8.5 -6.9 5.1 Q1 2002 -12.2 18.8 4.2 1.1 Q2 2001 -7.7 -6.1 -13.3 -6.1 Q4 1.3 -13.4 -12.1 -2.4 Q3 -0.2 -1.1 Manufacturing Products 3.0 -3.0 -0.2 Q2 3.8 -4.6 -3.3 Q1 Agriculture Products <ul><li>Unit Value </li></ul><ul><li>Volume </li></ul>
    • 11. Private Investment, Private Investment Index, and Business Expectations Index
    • 12. Growth of PCE and Private Consumption Index
    • 13. Growth of MPI, and Industrial Capacity Utilization
    • 14. Employment Source: NSO, BOT, MOL -19.5 -16.9 -19.8 8.5 6.30 3.7 1.25 31.94 33.89 Apr 16.1 -13.9 -32.0 3.0 5.98 2.7 0.90 31.45 33.12 Mar 6.59 5.80 Insured Persons ( millions ) -18.7 -14.3 Growth Rate of Thai Traveling Abroad -20.2 -17.1 Growth Rate of Newly Employed -35.0 -13.5 Growth Rate of Persons Loosing Jobs 12.8 0.1 Change ( % yoy ) 2.9 4.0 Unemployment Rate (%) 1.00 1.33 Unemployed Persons ( thousands ) 31.97 30.39 Employed Persons ( thousands ) 33.96 32.87 Labor Force ( thousands ) May p Mar 2002 2001
    • 15. Interest Rate Movement Remarks : 1/ average interest rates of five biggest commercial banks at the end of period 2/ real lending rate = interest income from loan / average loan 3/ real deposit = interest expense for deposit / average deposit 4/ including those in commercial banks’ AMCs 2.89 2.17 5.06 2.0 7.125 Q1 2002 - - - 2.0 7.10 Q2 3.14 2.36 5.49 2.25 7.25 Q4 2.14 2.72 4.86 2.50 7.40 Q1 2001 2.46 2.44 4.90 2.50 7.40 Q2 2.71 2.38 5.10 2.50 7.40 Q3 MLR 1/ Real Deposit Rate 3/ Spread 3-month Deposit Rate 1/ Real Lending Rate 2/,4/
    • 16. Stock Market : SET Index July
    • 17. Economic Trend
    • 18. Economic Forecast 1.6 4.2 4.6 2.3 8.0 3.6 4.2 3.0 5.0 4.3 2.0 - 3.0 18 Mar. Estimated 2002 Preliminary 3.5-4.0 1.8 4.6 GDP Growth(%) 2.0 -6.6 -9.9 <ul><li>Public investment </li></ul>5.8 5.1 17.2 <ul><li>Private investment </li></ul>1.7 -6.9 19.5 Exports (% yoy) 8.0 1.6 2.6 <ul><li>Public consumption </li></ul>3.5 3.4 4.9 <ul><li>Private consumption </li></ul>4.2 3.1 4.6 Consumption (%) 4.5 0.8 5.5 Investment (%) 1.3 1.6 1.5 CPI (%) 3.6 4.5 17 Jun. 5.3 -2.8 2001 7.6 31.4 2000 Current account balance (% GDP) Imports (% yoy)
    • 19. Comparing to Other Agencies 3.5-4.0 3.6 3.0-4.0 3.5-4.0 2 002 Projection - NESDB 2.5-4.0 BOT - Consensus - 2 003 MOF
    • 20. Outlook for Latter Half of this Year Supporting Factors Risk Factors <ul><li>Low interest rate environment. </li></ul><ul><li>Subdued inflation. </li></ul><ul><li>Rising licensed construction areas. </li></ul><ul><li>The recovery of the US economy remains fragile. </li></ul><ul><li>Low export prices (first 6-month export value growth contracted by 1.8% yoy despite 6% yoy increase in June). </li></ul><ul><li>Contracting Japanese Economy. </li></ul><ul><li>Unsolved NPLs. </li></ul>
    • 21. Macroeconomic Policy Management
    • 22. Macroeconomic Policy Management in Short Term Macroeconomic Policy Management in Medium Term <ul><li>Accelerate Restructuring of NPLs </li></ul><ul><li>Closely Monitor Consumer Credit </li></ul><ul><li>Solve Low Export Price Problem </li></ul><ul><li>Prepare to Support the Operation of the Local Administrations </li></ul><ul><li>Moving toward High Performance Economy </li></ul>
    • 23. <ul><li>National Destiny </li></ul><ul><li>Increase Thailand’s market share to 1.1% of total world exports in 2006 </li></ul><ul><li>8-10 global niches </li></ul><ul><ul><li>World’s top-10 tourist countries </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Asia’s top-5 traders </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>ASEAN’s No 1 attractive country to invest </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Leader of Bio-Technology </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>One of the few countries to maintain national heritage and cultural identity </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Enhance productivity in production and services sectors </li></ul>Moving Towards High Performance Economy
    • 24. Determination of Strategic Thrust Determination of Thailand’s Global Niche Thailand’s Competitive Strategy Public Sector Reform to Facilitate Business Sector
    • 25. Level of Customization Level of Sophistication High Tech Low Tech Low Touch High Touch <ul><li>Software </li></ul><ul><li>Foods </li></ul><ul><li>Tourism </li></ul><ul><li>Auto industry </li></ul><ul><li>Fashion </li></ul>Example Tourism Foods Fashion Auto Software Asia Tourism Capital Kitchen of the World World Tropical Fashion Detroit of Asia World Graphic Design Center Strategy : Selective Global Niches Global Niche
    • 26. Old Paradigm New paradigm Production & Services Strategy Agriculture Manufacture Services <ul><li>Intensive-farming </li></ul><ul><li>Supply-driven </li></ul><ul><li>Low Cost </li></ul><ul><li>Mass Production </li></ul><ul><li>Productive-farming </li></ul><ul><li>Market-driven </li></ul><ul><li>Value Added Creation </li></ul><ul><li>Product Differentiation </li></ul><ul><li>Demand-driven </li></ul><ul><li>Cost Leadership </li></ul><ul><li>Mass Production </li></ul><ul><li>Competing </li></ul><ul><li>Demand-driving </li></ul><ul><li>Product Differentiation </li></ul><ul><li>Customization / Market Niche </li></ul><ul><li>Co-opetition (Cluster Approach) </li></ul><ul><li>More for Less </li></ul><ul><li>Marketing </li></ul><ul><li>More for More </li></ul><ul><li>Market Positioning </li></ul>Strategic Thrust
    • 27. Business Cost Reduction <ul><li>Create foreseeable environment </li></ul><ul><li>Relax rules and regulation & resolve business obstacles </li></ul><ul><li>Improve supply chain </li></ul><ul><li>Privatization </li></ul>Public Sector Reform Business Opportunities <ul><li>Reduce business risks </li></ul><ul><li>Increase critical mass </li></ul><ul><li>Fair competition </li></ul><ul><li>Support value added creation </li></ul><ul><li>Create public/ corporate good governance </li></ul>Business Capacity Enhancement <ul><li>Clear guideline of privatization </li></ul><ul><li>Support market responses </li></ul><ul><li>Support innovation </li></ul><ul><li>Total productivity improvement </li></ul>Strategy : Facilitation Role to Business Sector
    • 28. Competitiveness <ul><li>Macroeconomic </li></ul><ul><li>Fiscal & Monetary Policies </li></ul><ul><li>Trade and Investment Policies </li></ul><ul><li>Foreign Policy </li></ul><ul><li>Fundamentals </li></ul><ul><li>Human Capital </li></ul><ul><li>Sciences & Technology </li></ul><ul><li>Management </li></ul><ul><li>Infrastructure </li></ul>Agriculture Manufacture Services Public Sector Reform
    • 29. Competitiveness : Four National Reforms High Performance Economy (HPE) Economic Reform Education Reform Bureaucracy Reform Corporate Reform <ul><li>Economy of Speed </li></ul><ul><li>Good Governance </li></ul><ul><li>(Public and Private) </li></ul><ul><li>Efficient Infrastructure (Hardware and Software ) </li></ul>HPE <ul><li>Sound Economic Management </li></ul><ul><li>High Quality of Social Capital </li></ul>
    • 30. THANK YOU http://www.nesdb.go.th

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