State of chicago area distres -matthew anderson

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State of chicago area distres -matthew anderson

  1. 1. Chicago Distressed Real Estate Trends Prepared for: Presented by: GreenPearl Distressed Real Matthew Anderson Estate Summit May 13, 2010
  2. 2. Commercial Real Estate Values Moody’s/REAL CPPI vs. NAREIT Price Index Index, 12/2005 = 100 150 125 Peak to Current: -42% (CPPI) 100 -38% (NAREIT) 75 50 25 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Moody's/REAL NAREIT Sources: MIT CRE, NAREIT, Foresight Analytics
  3. 3. Commercial Mortgage Maturities Loans Maturing By Year $ Billions 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Commercial Multifamily Source: Foresight Analytics
  4. 4. Underwater Mortgages by Maturity Year $ Billions 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 LTV > 100% LTV < 100% Source: Foresight Analytics
  5. 5. Commercial Real Estate Loan Maturities In Chicago, $ Billions Next 3 Next 5 Years Years (2010-2012) (2010-2014) Commercial Mortgages Banks $17.1 $30.6 CMBS $5.1 $7.6 Commercial Mtg Total $22.2 $38.2 Construction Loans $10.4 $12.0 CRE Total $32.6 $50.3 Sources: Trepp Loan, Foresight Analytics
  6. 6. Commercial Real Estate Delinquencies Percent of Amount Outstanding 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1990 1995 2000 1Q02 2Q03 3Q04 4Q05 1Q07 2Q08 3Q09 Construction Commercial Multifamily Sources: FDIC, FFIEC, Foresight Analytics
  7. 7. Chicago Commercial Mortgage Delinquency Rates CMBS, by Property Type 30+ Days Past Due 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 4Q 07 1Q 08 2Q 08 3Q 08 4Q 08 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 Office Retail Lodging Industrial Multifamily Source: Trepp, LLC
  8. 8. CRE Distress Summary Delinquent CRE Loans in Chicago, $ Billions Source/Type 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 Banks Construction & Land 2.1 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.0 2.6 Commercial Mtg 0.9 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.7 Multifamily Mtg 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 CMBS Total 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.5 Retail 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 Office 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 Lodging 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 Industrial 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Multifamily 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Sources: Trepp Loan, Foresight Analytics
  9. 9. Recent Foreclosure Activity Chicago Metro Area Loan Amount, Origination Property Name Property Type City $ Mill. Year Northern Lights Crossing Retail Gurnee $5.4 2004 4055 West Peterson Avenue Industrial Chicago $3.0 2007 Retail (Ground Bank One Ground Lease Lease) Orland Park $1.5 2005 Sheraton Four Points - O'Hare Airport Lodging Schiller Park $22.5 2006 South Suburban Industrial Portfolio Industrial Various $10.2 2006 Embassy Suites - Chicago Lodging Deerfield $13.9 2000 Rolling Meadows Plaza Retail Rolling Meadows $6.9 1999 Carolina & Hawthorne Buildings Industrial West Chicago $1.3 2001 Lakeview Square Shopping Center Retail Naperville $4.6 2004 Hotel Burnham Lodging Chicago $36.0 2007 Source: Trepp Loan
  10. 10. Bank Distress FDIC Problem Institutions vs. Foresight Watch List 800 700 645 590 600 512 500 466 400 371 276 300 200 100 49 15 13 11 14 13 12 12 19 21 20 30 109141 0 77 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 05 05 05 05 06 06 06 06 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10e Foresight FDIC Source: FDIC, Foresight Analytics
  11. 11. Bank Distress Closure Hot Spots—Watch List Institution Count by State Closures – State 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10* Current Cycle Georgia 55 64 63 74 77 38 Florida 55 70 83 85 73 25 Illinois 42 49 51 61 60 31 California 20 29 35 31 27 26 Minnesota 18 25 27 29 26 11 Washington 18 23 27 30 24 9 Michigan 14 21 22 25 21 7 Colorado 4 4 8 13 17 3 Missouri 11 13 17 15 16 8 Kansas 11 12 13 14 14 4 Wisconsin 7 8 16 15 13 1 North Carolina 2 2 3 11 13 2 South * Partial Quarter Carolina 3 8 7 14 12 1 Source: FDIC, Foresight Analytics
  12. 12. Bank Distress Bank Failures—Current Cycle and Near-term Forecast Number of Closed Institutions 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q102Q10*3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 Actual Projected * Through 04/30/10 Source: FDIC, Foresight Analytics

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