Ten Dominant Trends In Technology 2008 Fall 2008 Version

A Humbling but Short History of Futurology…  1899: “Everything that can be invented has been invented.” – Charles Duell, U.S. Commissioner of Patents  1900: “There is nothing new to be discovered in physics now.” – Lord Kelvin  1905: “E=mc2”  1923: “There is no likelihood man can ever tap the power of the atom.” – Nobel Prize-winning physicist Robert Millikan  1923: “Who wants to hear actors talk?” – Harry Warner (c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved

A Humbling but Short History of Futurology…  1943: “The future market for computers is about five or six.” – Thomas Watson, Sr.  1965: “The concept is interesting and well formed. But in order to earn better than a ‘C’, the idea must be feasible.” – Long forgotten Yale professor  1968: “I am a HAL 9000 computer, production number three. I became operational at the HAL plant in Urbana Illinois on January 12th 1997\"  1972: “There’s no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.” – Ken Olson (c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved

Why do we obsess over innovation? “Every day we are saying, ‘How can we keep this customer happy?’ How can we get ahead in innovation by doing this? Because if we don’t, somebody else will.” – Bill Gates (c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved

1. The GROWING SCOPE of the INTERNET In three years, 20 typical California households will generate as much traffic as the entire Internet did in 1995. Source: Charles Giancarlo, San Francisco Chronicle, 12/14/06 (c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved

Every week 12MM people join the Internet, most from outside the USA.  Unintended consequences of the Internet’s expansion:  Big media transformation  Birth of the long tail  Social networking  Democratization of content  Power to the artist  Disrupted distribution (c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved

22% of the world population now Internet enabled – June 30th, 2008 WORLD INTERNET USAGE AND POPULATION STATISTICS Internet Usage Usage Population Internet Users % Population World Regions Usage, % of Growth ( 2008 Est.) Dec/31, 2000 ( Penetration ) Latest Data World 2000-2008 Africa 955,206,348 4,514,400 51,065,630 5.3 % 3.5 % 1,031.2 % Asia 3,776,181,949 114,304,000 578,538,257 15.3 % 39.5 % 406.1 % Europe 800,401,065 105,096,093 384,633,765 48.1 % 26.3 % 266.0 % Middle East 197,090,443 3,284,800 41,939,200 21.3 % 2.9 % 1,176.8 % North America 337,167,248 108,096,800 248,241,969 73.6 % 17.0 % 129.6 % Latin 576,091,673 18,068,919 139,009,209 24.1 % 9.5 % 669.3 % America/Caribbean Oceania / Australia 33,981,562 7,620,480 20,204,331 59.5 % 1.4 % 165.1 % WORLD TOTAL 6,676,120,288 360,985,492 1,463,632,361 21.9 % 100.0 % 305.5 % (c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved

2. The Paradise of CHOICE  Consumer PULL, much less producer PUSH  End of the “hit-driven” economy in TV, music, movies, books  TIME and PLACE SHIFTING (TIVO, SlingBox)  We are leaving the “information age” and entering the “Age of Recommendation”  69% of consumers research products online  62% look at online peer review  39% compare price across outlets  Using engines such as PriceGrabber, TripAdvisor, Shopping.com  Drives prices down, democratizes search…  Leads to accelerated product innovation: Want it NOW!  IP-TV, Podcast network: empowering smaller players. (c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved

3. The AUDIENCE is the NETWORK  Democratization of production, distribution and search:  “Make it”, “Get it out there”, and “Help me find it”  Make it: PC music, Wikipedia, iMovie: The power of peer production grows exponentially  Get it out there: Lulu, MySpace, CraigsList, YouTube, eBay, Amazon Stores  Electronic distribution: finally bits not atoms.  Move the inventory way IN (central warehouse) or to the edge (eBay, Amazon retailers) or way gone (iTunes)  Anyone can Sell (Amazon stores, eBay, CraigsList)  Anyone can publish (peer production: LuLu, YouTube, MySpace, WikiPedia)  Anyone can help me find it (search): The Wisdom of Crowds: TripAdvisor shopping bots, niche search engines. (c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved

4. Increasing Computer Power Drives Changes In Human Behavior  From emphasis upon productivity over last 25 years…  To changing the way we  share experiences  Communicate  preserve memories  access entertainment  learn, and  use health care  Distribution of innovation to resources around the world.  In the U.S. economy alone up to 12% of all labor activity could be distributed and networked, from legal to administrative to restructuring of R&D.  Cloud computing and “on demand” software (SAAS) (c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved

5. “I AM THE OFFICE” – Mobile Computing Changes Our Lives  Information and communications available everywhere.  Apple’s iPhone interface will start a revolution in usable mobile computing devices.  Video-conferencing becoming a reality  Japan is the first country to see a reduction in PC purchases year over year – in favor of mobile devices…  More than ½ of the people on the planet have cell phones- up from 12% in 2000 (U.N. Telecoms study)  Unified communications  “I have an OFFICE in my pocket.” (c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved

6. Consumer Electronics Spending Dominated by HDTV, Convergence  CES Show ’08: 2,700 companies, 140,000 attendees, 140 countries  “Connected digital home” and “HD video” main trends.  Digital TV’s now in 56% of U.S. homes – Dec 2007 (c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved

6. Consumer Electronics Trends (Cont’d)  250 MM computers were sold in 2007.  Intel is working on 10x performance at 1/10 the power. Over a BB transistors on a chip now shipping.  Gaming leads with US software sales of $7.8B in 2008.  Video games exceeded US box office receipts for first time in 2005.  SINGLE CHIP CPU+VIDEO  NVIDIA is Forbes’ company of the year NVIDIA RENDERING OF FACE for video game. 754 M transistors In G-Force 8800 GTS (up from 63 M in 2002) (c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved

6. Consumer Electronics Trends (Cont’d)  The “Digital home” entertainment servers centralize content acquisition and storage. HDTV’s connected to Media center PC’s will triple again in 2008. Gaming devices, downloaded movies and seamless entertainment (c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved

6. Consumer Electronics Trends (Cont’d)  IP-TVs and WIFI phones are real and growing segment.  Devices will be driven by voice, gesture and.. Keyboard.  OLED thin, bright display devices. Fold or roll ‘em. Readius OLED rollup Screen device. Toshiba OLED 1.5” wide HDTV Fujitsu fabric PC - OLED (c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved

7. WEB 2.0 Enters the Mainstream  Young people entering workforce will drive wide deployment through the enterprise.  More effective way to communicate.  Businesses must adapt.  Facebook as a platform: 55 MM users. May 24th, 2007 launch of open API. Already over 18,000 applications. Parallel to Internet browser as a container for applications. One million new users each week, fastest growing group over 35.  MySpace (falling from favor quickly). New open code…  Platforms to watch: LinkedIn, Facebook, Orkut.  Tools: Ning and Nexo to build your own. (c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved

8. WEB 3.0 – 4.0 / Way Beyond Search  Web 3.0: The Semantic or “natural language” Web:  Attach meta-data to information stored on the Web  Like a rich card catalog on top of online content  Turns the web into a relational database  Make search and unstructured data more accessible  Try www.powerset.com for an early example (c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved

8. WEB 3.0 – 4.0 / Way Beyond Search  Web 4.0: The Ubiquitous Web: Connecting intelligence into a network of smart markets, natural language agents and more. Agents that know and reason as humans do. (c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved

9. EVERYTHING TURNS GREEN  Energy demand will grow 57% by 2030  US petroleum consumption will continue to rise from 17M barrels/day in 1973, to 20M in 2006, and to 25M in 2030.  We have a “perfect storm” for innovation in energy today: Energy price, volatility, global awareness & climate change  Every week 12MM people join the Internet, most from outside the USA.. So…  Energy required to power the Internet doubles every 5 years.  35% of all energy in the home now drives computers and TV.  1/3 of all homes got rid of a CE device in 2007 – half in perfect working order.  7% trashed. 9% recycled. 67% resold/gifted. 20% donated.  Greening I.T.: Minimize energy use; Reduce CO2 emissions; and minimize electronic waste. (c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved

10. The CIO becomes a Business Strategist  An important member of senior team - determining how to invest capital more effectively to reduce costs, improve productivity and achieve corporate objectives.  Process Improvement, not system build-out, will be Job #1  Division between I.T and operations will diminish, and  Emphasis on mining vast amounts of corp. data will increase  Enterprise applications will start losing their luster in favor of SaaS, mashups, “On Demand” computing.  IT will reluctantly embrace Web 2.0  CIOs will turn IT into a operational line organization, not just guardians and protectors of the network. (c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved

Futurology Revisited (Have we learned anything?) In 2002 “10 Trends”…  2009: Electronic banking replaces most cash  2010: Holistic health care widespread  2011: Translation software replaces most foreign language teaching  2012: Organic farming boom cuts pesticide use by one-half  2013: Half of all household waste recycled  2015: Manufacturing jobs sink to 10% of all U.S. work  2018: Half of all goods will be sold on-line… (c) 2008 D.W.Berkus, All Rights Reserved

Ten Dominant Trends In Technology 2008 Fall 2008 Version

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