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This chart is intended to show you the significance of battle zone we are in. Retracing the
two prior significant highs on 10/14 (red spike on left side of chart touching the brown
horizontal line) and 11/04 (b), there is a confluence of a .500 Fibonacci retracement of
the move down from 11/04 and a .618 Fibonacci retracement of the move down from b,
right where price is stalling between 910 and 920.

Shift your eyes right and that is joined by a .618 extension of the move off the low shown
as the large black zigzag and a 1:1 ratio of the most recent move up shown by the small
black zigzag. Two Fibonacci retracements and two Fibonacci extensions are converging
together in a tight price zone.




Scan left and you will see where price has found support and resistance in this area
previously. Also note that it is the bottom of the original trend line off the low, and on
this chart it is also the top of the Bollinger band and the intersection of the descending
trend line (which now has a small breakout to the upside). Can you think of a better
place for the bears to wage a defensive campaign?

A breakout above the congestion zone tomorrow, a clean break above 920, should work
higher to the next congestion zone around 960. 960 if you recall, is also the near term
target from last night to keep the motive wave and 5 wave set up from the low thesis
going.

A retracement as low as 875 before going higher is technically ok, but wouldn’t show
much strength. That coincides with the 2nd Fan line higher up the axis and needs to hold.

The ideal retracement and turning point back up is between 900 and 890 and should get
to 930ish before taking a break. 885 is ok, but less powerful. As I write this futures are
about to test 900 and finding some support.

TMD/DW

The market detective provides personal market opinion based on sound technical
analysis and research. However, no warranty is given or implied as to its true reliability.
The market detective will make errors and mistakes. The market detective is not
an investment adviser and is not making recommendations to buy, sell, or place orders
relating to the futures contracts, ETFs, or stocks that he writes about. The responsibility
for decisions made from information contained in this service are solely that of the
individual subscriber. The individual must fully research and make his/her own
decisions before acting on any information provided by the market detective. The
market detective assumes no responsibility for subscriber investment or trading results.

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Tmd12162008

  • 1. This chart is intended to show you the significance of battle zone we are in. Retracing the two prior significant highs on 10/14 (red spike on left side of chart touching the brown horizontal line) and 11/04 (b), there is a confluence of a .500 Fibonacci retracement of the move down from 11/04 and a .618 Fibonacci retracement of the move down from b, right where price is stalling between 910 and 920. Shift your eyes right and that is joined by a .618 extension of the move off the low shown as the large black zigzag and a 1:1 ratio of the most recent move up shown by the small black zigzag. Two Fibonacci retracements and two Fibonacci extensions are converging together in a tight price zone. Scan left and you will see where price has found support and resistance in this area previously. Also note that it is the bottom of the original trend line off the low, and on this chart it is also the top of the Bollinger band and the intersection of the descending
  • 2. trend line (which now has a small breakout to the upside). Can you think of a better place for the bears to wage a defensive campaign? A breakout above the congestion zone tomorrow, a clean break above 920, should work higher to the next congestion zone around 960. 960 if you recall, is also the near term target from last night to keep the motive wave and 5 wave set up from the low thesis going. A retracement as low as 875 before going higher is technically ok, but wouldn’t show much strength. That coincides with the 2nd Fan line higher up the axis and needs to hold. The ideal retracement and turning point back up is between 900 and 890 and should get to 930ish before taking a break. 885 is ok, but less powerful. As I write this futures are about to test 900 and finding some support. TMD/DW The market detective provides personal market opinion based on sound technical analysis and research. However, no warranty is given or implied as to its true reliability. The market detective will make errors and mistakes. The market detective is not an investment adviser and is not making recommendations to buy, sell, or place orders relating to the futures contracts, ETFs, or stocks that he writes about. The responsibility for decisions made from information contained in this service are solely that of the individual subscriber. The individual must fully research and make his/her own decisions before acting on any information provided by the market detective. The market detective assumes no responsibility for subscriber investment or trading results.