Kenya Coconut Production Presentation by Dr. Lalith Perera
Tmd12162008
1. This chart is intended to show you the significance of battle zone we are in. Retracing the
two prior significant highs on 10/14 (red spike on left side of chart touching the brown
horizontal line) and 11/04 (b), there is a confluence of a .500 Fibonacci retracement of
the move down from 11/04 and a .618 Fibonacci retracement of the move down from b,
right where price is stalling between 910 and 920.
Shift your eyes right and that is joined by a .618 extension of the move off the low shown
as the large black zigzag and a 1:1 ratio of the most recent move up shown by the small
black zigzag. Two Fibonacci retracements and two Fibonacci extensions are converging
together in a tight price zone.
Scan left and you will see where price has found support and resistance in this area
previously. Also note that it is the bottom of the original trend line off the low, and on
this chart it is also the top of the Bollinger band and the intersection of the descending
2. trend line (which now has a small breakout to the upside). Can you think of a better
place for the bears to wage a defensive campaign?
A breakout above the congestion zone tomorrow, a clean break above 920, should work
higher to the next congestion zone around 960. 960 if you recall, is also the near term
target from last night to keep the motive wave and 5 wave set up from the low thesis
going.
A retracement as low as 875 before going higher is technically ok, but wouldn’t show
much strength. That coincides with the 2nd Fan line higher up the axis and needs to hold.
The ideal retracement and turning point back up is between 900 and 890 and should get
to 930ish before taking a break. 885 is ok, but less powerful. As I write this futures are
about to test 900 and finding some support.
TMD/DW
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