Market analysis from TheMarketDetective.com that utilizes the Elliott wave principle and Fibonacci analysis.

1. 11/25/20085:05 PM Pacific
This is 233 minute chart of the S&P E-minis assumes that we completed wave 3. It wins
the most probable award between the two counts I have discussed since last evening,
based on post market analysis this afternoon. The green arrow points out that wave (5) of
3, was a .382 extension of waves (1) to (3), where I was projecting a .618 extension, to
align with the 1.618 extension of wave 1, as the target for wave 3. That is the most
common extension for a 3rd wave in a motive wave set (5-3-5-3-5).
It is less common, but not uncommon, for the entire wave set to complete in a 1.618
extension of wave 1.
The red arrow shows that in this scenario there is no longer a Fibonacci confluence for
the completion target. Note the .382 extension is below the 1.618 target and the .618
extension is well above it. The 1.618 line is dominant, especially near the 200 period ma
which tends to pull price toward it once it enters its orbit.

2. 11/25/20085:05 PM Pacific
The retracement down from 3 (labeled 4) was greater than .250 and less than .382. The
second red bar is a 1:1 ratio of the first. The orange arrow points out that from the top of
the green bar to .382 is a 1:1 ratio of the entire move down from 3-4 and would be a
confluence with the .382 retracement level. The retracement doesn’t have to extend and
go there, and my bias is that it won’t, but if price does correct below 845 after hours, it is
the most likely target.
This 5 minute chart shows the move up from 833 that started at 11:00am. Look at the
ratios of the move. The move up is a probable motive wave which lessens the likelihood
of the extended retracement scenario discussed in the last paragraph. However, the .618
retracement level on this chart (845) is probable.
Note that in this 5 wave set the 3rd wave was a 1.618 extension, and the 5th wave was a
.618 extension.
If price corrects lower than 825, caution is advised. Adopting this (3 waves completed)
count as the primary thesis implies that technically the upside could be over. Corrections
come in 3 waves, motive/impulse waves come in sets of 5. If we can put in the 5th wave,
we will go higher.

3. 11/25/20085:05 PM Pacific
My bias is for higher prices. Higher prices are supported by the probable counts at the
higher level of degree discussed in the weekend edition. They are also supported by the 5
minute chart above.
TMD/DW
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