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Water access under growing scarcity
 

Water access under growing scarcity

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This presentation describes challenges for the poor in accessing water and food under growing natural resource scarcity

This presentation describes challenges for the poor in accessing water and food under growing natural resource scarcity

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    Water access under growing scarcity Water access under growing scarcity Presentation Transcript

    • How to Ensure Sustainable Access to Water for Food in a World of Growing Scarcity Claudia Ringler "New Green Revolution? Meeting the Global Food and Energy Demands March 4-6, Urbana-Champaign, Illinois
    • SUMMARY 1. Agriculture continues as largest single user of freshwater resources in 2050 for all regions, although its share declines relative to industrial and domestic uses 2. Sectoral competition and other water scarcity related problems will intensify 3. Growing water scarcity will increasingly constrain food production growth, causing adverse impacts on food security and human wellbeing goals 4. An increasing share of food production stems from often unsustainable groundwater use INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 2
    • SUMMARY 5. Reliability of agricultural water supply is projected to decline without improved water management policies 6. Water pollution will increasingly constrain water availability and food production, particularly in developing countries. Water quality problems are more difficult to resolve and have long-run consequences 7. While globally the amount of water withdrawn for biofuels is modest, local water scarcity problems may worsen due to direct and indirect impacts from agricultural water use for feedstock production INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 3
    • SUMMARY 8. Climate change will impact water resources for all uses--in particular ag water use-- through gradual changes in precipitation, runoff, evaporative demands, and sea-level rise in productive delta areas, as well as through increased number and severity of extreme events (floods/drought/storms) 9. Water conservation and productivity enhancement in rainfed and irrigated agriculture are needed to offset growing impacts of water scarcity on the environment and risks to farmers INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE  Page 4
    • SUMMARY 10. There is significant untapped potential to use economic incentives for agricultural water management 11. For agricultural water use to fulfill its full potential complementary investments in agricultural technologies (seeds, fertilizer), rural infrastructure (roads, telecommunications) and in complementary sectors (education, health) are needed INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 5
    • Drivers of growing water scarcity 1. Population growth & urbanization 2. Economic growth Changing diets 3. Intensification of agricultural production (Water quality implications) 4. Nonag demand (Industrialization/ ENV) 5. Higher energy prices 6. Growing demand for non-food crops 7. Climate variability and climate change 8. Slowing investments in water (some change in SSA) 9. Unsustainable use & poor management INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 6
    • IFPRI IMPACT Food Producing Units INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 7
    • Water use in agriculture
    • Projected changes in per capita water supply (SRES B2 CC scenario)  2000 2050 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 CWANA SSA LAC NAE ESAP Source: IMPACT Model Projections INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 9
    • Growing Food Demand (Cereal Demand 2000, and projected 2025 & 2050) Source: IMPACT Model Projections INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 10 Page 10
    • Rapid Increase in Per Capita Meat Consumption, 2000-2050 Source: IMPACT Model Projections INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 11
    • Projected changes in irrigation and other water consumption  2000 2050 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Other Irri Other Irri Other Irri Other Irri Other Irri CWANACWANA SSA SSA LAC LAC NAE NAE ESAP ESAP Source: IMPACT Model Projections INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 12
    • Water quality is declining in many parts of the developing world • In developing countries poor water quality is driven by industrialization, urbanization, and intensification of agriculture • Threats to water quality are greatest in areas where water is scarce • In Eastern Europe, Central and South America, China, and India water quality declined because of metals, pathogens, acidification, and organic matter • Nutrient concentrations have increased in rivers throughout the world • Water quality in the developing world is less well monitored and data comparability is problematic INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
    • Projected changes in harvested irrigated area 300  250 200 CWANA ESAP 150 LAC 100 NAE 50 SSA 0 2000 2025 2050 Source: IMPACT Model Projections INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 14
    • Projected declining irrigation water supply reliability  2000 2050 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 CWANA SSA LAC NAE ESAP Source: IMPACT Model Projections INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 15
    • Projected changes in total agricultural water use 10000  9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Source: IMPACT Model Projections 16 Page
    • Energy cost, Climate variability & change
    • Higher Energy Prices: ..make HP more attractive, and more water use for biofuels 500 70 Corn 450 Rice Sugar 60 Oil seeds 400 Crude oil (right) 350 50 Price (US$/barrel) Price (US$/mt) 300 40 250 30 200 150 20 100 10 50 0 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
    • Biofuel expansion: small regional but potentially large local impacts Moderate biofuel Drastic biofuel 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 Change in irrigation water depletion INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Source: IMPACT Model Projections
    • Water Scarcity & Drought Stress Proportion of failed growing seasons for rainfed cultivation, 100 year weather simulation Source: Hyman et al. (2008) Note: The figure illustrates 100 year weather simulation based on historic data analysis  Drought • Lowers average expected yields • Increases production risk, reducing technology adoption of poor farmers INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
    • Change in average cereal yield: Baseline and w/o climate change, 2000 and projected 2050 2000 2050 no CC 2050 baseline 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 CWANA ESAP LAC SSA Source: IMPACT Model Projections (SRES B2 scenario) INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 21
    • Change in wheat yield (%) due to climate change with hydrologic effects, 2000-2050 Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations for HadCM3/SRESB2 scenario (with IMAGE temperature and CO2 fertilization effects), April 2008 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 22
    • Global price of wheat: Baseline and without climate change, 2000-2050 wheat no CC wheat CC wheat CC_noCO2 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039 2042 2045 2048 Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations for HadCM3/SRESB2 scenario (with IMAGE temperature and CO2 fertilization effects), April 2008 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 23
    • Avenues for Policy Reform and Investment
    • Challenges to be Met  Rapid economic, technological, and climate change  Significantly increasing water scarcity both in terms of quantity and quality  Need to reform water management, policies, and investments to improve water use efficiency  Need to increase flexibility of water and food systems and adaptability to stress  Look for solutions outside the water sector INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 25
    • Support for Improved Demand Management: Incentives and Flexibility  Facilitation of intersectoral water transfers  Finance multisector negotiation for water transfers  Establishment of water rights  Establishment of economic incentives in water allocation INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 26
    • Public-Private Partnerships  Devolution of irrigation infrastructure and management to WUA • Build on existing social capital or patterns of cooperation • Supportive policy and legal environment including – Establishment and adjudication of secure water rights including property rights over infrastructure – Monitoring and regulating externalities and third party effects of irrigation – Provide technical and organizational training and support INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 27
    • Economic Incentives for Efficient Water Use  Establish economic incentives • Establish water rights for users • Direct price increases for households and industry, with subsidies targeted to the poor • Irrigation water price increase can be punitive to farmers • Design pricing mechanisms to pay irrigators to use less water INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 28
    • Water and Irrigation Investment  Increased investment in household water supply and sanitation  Selective investments to expand irrigation, drainage and storage • Technological development (drip, micro- sprinkler, real-time management) • High financial and environmental costs, but some expansion necessary  Increasing profitability of storage means expanded opportunities INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 29
    • Agricultural Research and Technology  Increasing crop productivity: water management, agricultural research and rural investment • Emphasis on crop breeding for both irrigated and rainfed agriculture – genetic modifications to develop stress tolerant materials to address water scarcity, salinization and groundwater contamination • Water harvesting, minimum tillage, integrated soil fertility management • Rural infrastructure investment to improve access to markets, credit, inputs INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 30
    • Increasing the Openness of Agricultural Trade  Trade will increase dramatically under climate change scenarios  Openness of trade will increase efficiency in irrigation water use  Need to restore confidence in international trading system • Complete the WTO Doha Round trade negotiations • Reduce agricultural subsidies and trade barriers • Establish international facility to finance emergency food imports INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 31