Chicago Crime Presentation

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Chicago Crime Presentation

  1. 1. Chicago Crime Data Project (CCDP) John Mounce & Billy Joe Mills Typical Chicago Criminal
  2. 2. Chicago Crime Blog <ul><li>All past and future findings made by the Mounce-Mills team will be posted at www.chicagocrime.wordpress.com </li></ul><ul><li>Data downloads, maps, & graphs galore! </li></ul>
  3. 3. Hypothesis 1: Violent Crimes and Economic Wealth - 2005 <ul><li>Hypothesis </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Violent crimes are more common in economically poor neighborhoods than in economically wealthy neighborhoods. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Null Hypothesis </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Violent crimes are no more common in economically poor neighborhoods than in economically wealthy neighborhoods. </li></ul></ul>
  4. 4. Hypothesis 1: Poor neighborhoods have more violent crime than rich neighborhoods <ul><li>About 31% of the variance in violent crime is explained by household income levels </li></ul><ul><li>For every $1 increase in household income, the 2005 Violent Crime Index is reduced by 0.023 units. </li></ul>
  5. 5. Hypothesis 1: Poor neighborhoods have more violent crime than rich neighborhoods <ul><li>For every increase in household income by $10,000, violent crime lowers by 7.7%. </li></ul>
  6. 6. Hypothesis 1: Poor neighborhoods have more violent crime than rich neighborhoods <ul><li>Violent crimes are more common in economically poor neighborhoods than in economically wealthy neighborhoods. </li></ul>
  7. 7. Hypothesis 1: Poor neighborhoods have more violent crime than rich neighborhoods
  8. 8. Hypothesis 1: Violent Crimes and Economic Wealth - 2005
  9. 9. Hypothesis 2: Rich neighborhoods have more property crime than poor neighborhoods <ul><li>Reporter: Why do you rob banks? </li></ul><ul><li>Willie Sutton: Because that’s where the money is. </li></ul>
  10. 10. Hypothesis 2: Rich neighborhoods have more property crime than poor neighborhoods
  11. 11. Hypothesis 2: Rich neighborhoods have more property crime than poor neighborhoods
  12. 12. Hypothesis 2: Rich neighborhoods have more property crime than poor neighborhoods
  13. 13. Hypothesis 3: Neighborhoods with higher levels of violent crime have higher levels of property crime <ul><li>About 49% of the variance in property crime is explained by violent crime </li></ul><ul><li>For every 1 unit increase in the Violent Crime Index 2005, the Property Crime Index 2005 increases by 1.951 units </li></ul>
  14. 14. Hypothesis 3: Neighborhoods with higher levels of violent crime have higher levels of property crime Property Crime Violent Crime
  15. 15. Hypothesis 3: Neighborhoods with higher levels of violent crime have higher levels of property crime <ul><li>About 58% of the variance in property crime is explained by violent crime and household income </li></ul>
  16. 16. Hypothesis 4: Neighborhoods with higher levels of racial diversity have lower violent crime <ul><li>The Mounce Diversity Index explains about 40% of the variance in the Violent Crime Index 2005 </li></ul>
  17. 17. Hypothesis 4: Neighborhoods with higher levels of racial diversity have lower violent crime <ul><li>For every 10% increase in the Mounce Diversity Index, violent crime decreases by 4% </li></ul>
  18. 18. Hypothesis 4: Neighborhoods with higher levels of racial diversity have lower violent crime <ul><li>The Herfindahl Diversity Index explains about 36% of the variance in the Violent Crime Index 2005 </li></ul>
  19. 19. Hypothesis 4: Neighborhoods with higher levels of racial diversity have lower violent crime <ul><li>For every 10% increase in the Herfindahl Diversity Index, violent crime decreases by 5.1% </li></ul>
  20. 20. Hypothesis 5: Neighborhoods with higher levels of racial diversity have lower property crime <ul><li>The Mounce Diversity Index explains about 9% of the variance in the Property Crime Index 2005 </li></ul>
  21. 21. Hypothesis 5: Neighborhoods with higher levels of racial diversity have lower property crime <ul><li>For every 10% increase in the Mounce Diversity Index, property crime decreases by 2.4% </li></ul>
  22. 22. Hypothesis 5: Neighborhoods with higher levels of racial diversity have lower property crime <ul><li>The Herfindahl Diversity Index explains about 9% of the variance in the Property Crime Index 2005 </li></ul>
  23. 23. Hypothesis 5: Neighborhoods with higher levels of racial diversity have lower property crime <ul><li>For every 10% increase in the Herfindahl Diversity Index, property crime decreases by 3.1% </li></ul>
  24. 24. Problems with Diversity Index Violent Crime
  25. 25. Hypothesis 6: Violent Crime and Racial Populations <ul><li>For every 10% increase in the White Population, violent crime decreases by 4.37% </li></ul>
  26. 26. Hypothesis 6: Violent Crime and Racial Populations <ul><li>For every 10% increase in the Hispanic Population, violent crime decreases by 2.77% </li></ul>
  27. 27. Hypothesis 6: Violent Crime and Racial Populations <ul><li>For every 10% increase in the Asian Population, violent crime decreases by 6.32% </li></ul>
  28. 28. Hypothesis 6: Violent Crime and Racial Populations <ul><li>For every 10% increase in the Black Population, violent crime increases by 3.67% </li></ul>
  29. 29. Hypothesis 6: Violent Crime and Racial Populations
  30. 30. Hypothesis 6: Violent Crime and Racial Populations
  31. 31. Hypothesis 7: Low income neighborhoods have more crime at night
  32. 32. Hypothesis 8: Neighborhoods with higher levels of education have lower violent crime
  33. 33. Hypothesis 8: Neighborhoods with higher levels of education have lower violent crime <ul><li>For every 10% increase in the Education Index, violent crime decreases by 3.64% </li></ul>
  34. 34. Hypothesis 9: Neighborhoods with higher levels of education have lower property crime
  35. 35. Hypothesis 10: Neighborhoods with higher male populations have more violent crime
  36. 36. Hypothesis 10: Neighborhoods with higher male populations have more violent crime
  37. 37. Hypothesis 11: Neighborhoods with higher male populations have more property crime
  38. 38. Hypothesis 12: Neighborhoods with a higher 12-24 age proportion have higher violent crime
  39. 39. Hypothesis 13: Neighborhoods with a higher 12-24 age proportion have higher property crime
  40. 40. Hypothesis 14: Neighborhoods with a higher 0-11 age proportion have lower violent crime
  41. 41. Hypothesis 15: Neighborhoods with a higher 0-11 age proportion have lower property crime
  42. 42. Hypothesis 16: Neighborhoods with higher youth populations have more violent crime
  43. 43. Hypothesis 16: Neighborhoods with higher youth populations have more violent crime
  44. 44. Hypothesis 17: Neighborhoods with higher youth populations have more property crime
  45. 45. Hypothesis 18: Neighborhoods with a greater proportion of families with children have lower violent crime
  46. 46. Hypothesis 18: Neighborhoods with a greater proportion of families with children have lower violent crime
  47. 47. Hypothesis 19: Neighborhoods with a greater proportion of families with children have lower property crime
  48. 48. Hypothesis 20: Neighborhoods with higher proportions of single parent females have higher violent crime
  49. 49. Hypothesis 20: Neighborhoods with higher proportions of single parent females have higher violent crime
  50. 50. Hypothesis 21: Neighborhoods with higher proportions of single parent females have higher property crime
  51. 51. Hypothesis 22: Neighborhoods with higher proportions of single parent males have higher violent crime
  52. 52. Hypothesis 23: Neighborhoods with higher proportions of single parent males have higher property crime
  53. 53. Hypothesis 24: Neighborhoods with higher BH Female Ratios have higher violent crime
  54. 54. Hypothesis 24: Neighborhoods with higher BH Female Ratios have higher violent crime
  55. 55. Hypothesis 25: Neighborhoods with higher BH Female Ratios have higher property crime
  56. 56. Hypothesis 24: Neighborhoods with higher BH Male Ratios have higher violent crime
  57. 57. Hypothesis 24: Neighborhoods with higher BH Male Ratios have higher violent crime
  58. 58. Hypothesis 25: Neighborhoods with higher BH Male Ratios have higher property crime
  59. 59. Hypothesis 26: Neighborhoods with higher Single Parent Female Index have higher violent crime
  60. 60. Hypothesis 26: Neighborhoods with higher Single Parent Female Index have higher violent crime
  61. 61. Hypothesis 27: Neighborhoods with higher Single Parent Female Index have higher property crime
  62. 62. Hypothesis 28: Parent Soup
  63. 63. Big Soup – Violent Crime
  64. 64. Big Soup – Property Crime
  65. 65. Pax Obama - Wednesday
  66. 66. Pax Obama - Thursday
  67. 67. Support Group: Coping with underreporting bias Property Crime Violent Crime
  68. 68. Support Group: Coping with underreporting bias
  69. 69. Problems with Data and Methodology <ul><li>Underreporting of crimes in a biased sample of neighborhoods </li></ul><ul><li>Overly zealous enforcement of laws in a biased sample of neighborhoods </li></ul><ul><li>Grafting 2008 crime data onto 2005 demographic data </li></ul>
  70. 70. Problems with Data and Methodology <ul><li>Is a one variable regression meaningful? </li></ul><ul><li>Condensing crime data into 77 data points </li></ul><ul><li>Concentrate on just a few hypotheses </li></ul>

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