04 Mmitt 040599 Brief


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04 Mmitt 040599 Brief

  1. 1. Man Made Effects on Space Weather Maj. Roger Hill / NSSA Dr. Mark Pesses / SAIC Presented To: Dr. Hastings Chief Scientist of the Air Force
  2. 2. Introduction <ul><li>The National Security Space Architect (NSSA) has completed a 16 month project of designing a multi-service, multi-agency space weather (SWx) architecture. </li></ul><ul><li>The study addressed space weather effects on all anticipated elements in the 2010 to 2025 timeframe that would be need to support the DoD and other US assets used for operations, navigation communications and associated ground elements. </li></ul>
  3. 3. Manmade Influences Tiger Team <ul><li>The Chief Scientist of the Air Force requested that the SWx architecture study include potential impacts on space weather due to manmade influences on the near-Earth space environment. These impacts could be significant drivers within the architecture alternatives. </li></ul><ul><li>To ensure these concerns were addressed, and to fully explore the trade-space during development of the SWx architecture, a Manmade Influences Tiger Team (M 2 IT 2 ) was established to expand the original study. </li></ul>
  4. 4. MMITT Charter <ul><li>Identify and understand manmade effects on the near-earth environment and their relationship to space weather effects </li></ul><ul><li>Identify the sensors and models currently used to locate and assess manmade effects and determine their impact on the environment </li></ul><ul><li>Assess the candidate space weather architectures to determine their ability to meet future system needs for detecting man-made influences on space weather </li></ul>
  5. 5. MMITT Charter <ul><li>Determine what is need to be added to the candidate architectures to be able to detect and characterize man-made changes to the SWx environment </li></ul><ul><li>Recommend additional sensors and models where necessary to extend the capability of SWx arch itecture to include the influence of manmade effects on the natural geospace environment </li></ul><ul><li>Coordinate findings with the Integration Panel, and Design, Cost, and Analysis Teams </li></ul>
  6. 6. Space Weather Overview
  7. 7. Solar Flares
  8. 8. Magnetic Storms
  9. 9. Appleton Anomaly
  10. 10. HANE
  11. 11. Ionospheric Heaters
  12. 12. HAARP
  13. 13. Chemical Releases & Particle Beams
  14. 14. Electromagnetic Radiation <ul><li>The EM radiation associated with manmade and SWx phenomena differ in three very important ways: </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>The x-ray and gamma-ray signature of SWx phenomena persist for seconds to minutes compared to nanoseconds for HANEs. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Radiation from HANEs decreases as the square of the distance from the burst point, while radiation from flares is essentially constant throughout the sunlit hemisphere of Geospace. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Radiation from flares effects the entire sunlit hemisphere while the radiation from HANEs and chemical releases is limited to the line-of-site or magnetic field contained footprint, and is much smaller. </li></ul></ul></ul>
  15. 15. Electromagnetic Radiation
  16. 16. Particle Radiation <ul><li>The major differences between manmade and natural phenomena are: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>HANEs do not produce energetic ions except for alpha particles while flares and magnetic storms produce a multitude of ion types to include energetic H, He, C, N, O and Fe ions; and </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>HANEs produce antimatter while natural SWx events do not. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>HANES produce a much higher number of highly energetic electrons than do natural phenomena. </li></ul></ul>
  17. 17. Particle Radiation
  18. 18. Information Transmission & Reception <ul><li>In this area, man-made and natural SWx phenomena are similar but have two important differences. First, HANE produces effects that interfere with higher frequencies than solar flares and magnetic storms. Second, man-made effects are localized while flare effects are primarily hemispheric and magnetic storm effects are global. </li></ul>
  19. 19. Information Transmission & Reception
  20. 20. SWx Summary <ul><li>While the electromagnetic and corpuscular environments produced by manmade and natural disturbances are similar, in almost every environmental domain, the spatial and temporal spheres of manmade influences are orders of magnitude smaller than that of naturally occurring phenomena </li></ul><ul><li>HANE will adversely effect SWx assets that have been only harden against natural radiation hazards Similarly, natural SWx phenomena can adversely effect national security and warfighter assets that are only hardened against HANE radiation hazards. </li></ul>
  21. 21. Architecture Elements That Will Provide NuDet Data
  22. 22. Architecture Elements That Will Provide Potentially Useful NuDet Data
  23. 23. NuDet detectors and those that have the capability to provide SWx data
  24. 24. Joint Dissemination <ul><li>Currently the UV, X-Ray and Gamma-Ray NuDet data are sent only to AFTEC while the energetic particle data are sent to Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and 55 th Air Squadron. If a Gamma-ray Burst is detected AFTECT request LANL to determine if it might have been associated with high-energy electron event creating contamination of the Gamma-Ray sensor. LANL also uses the energetic particle data for space physics research. </li></ul>
  25. 25. Findings <ul><li>While the EM and particle environments produced by manmade and natural disturbances are similar, in almost every environmental domain, the spatial and temporal spheres of manmade influences are orders of magnitude smaller than that of naturally occurring phenomena. </li></ul><ul><li>Within these spheres of influence, Manmade effects have more impact on national security assets and the warfighter in the these areas: gamma-ray, X-ray and neutron doses; inner Van Allen belt electron dose; propagation of electromagnetic signals at HF and lower frequencies; EMP voltage, and IR backgrounds. </li></ul>
  26. 26. Findings Cont. <ul><li>SWx sensors are not adequate for detection of nuclear events </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Limited prompt radiation detection </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Limited particulate detection </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>HANEs adversely effect SWx assets that are only hardened against solar flare and magnetic storm radiation hazards. </li></ul><ul><li>Ionospheric Heating and Chemical Release are not significant threats with present or projected technology </li></ul>
  27. 27. Findings Cont. <ul><li>The time and effort required for the LANL NuDet energetic particle data to reach to 55th space weather squadron can be significantly reduced. </li></ul><ul><li>The ability to monitor neutron and gamma events will be severely degraded with the phase-out of the Advanced Radiation Capability (ARII) suite of sensors on GEO satellites </li></ul><ul><ul><li>This will impact development of improved models for the Radiation Belt, Ionosphere, Neutral Atmosphere, PCA, and Scintillation . </li></ul></ul>
  28. 28. RECOMMENDATION A <ul><li>Integrate relevant NuDet and SWx data </li></ul><ul><ul><li>NuDet particle data can be used by the SWx community during times of peace and NuDet electromagnetic and particle data also during times of war. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>SWx particle data can be used by the NuDet community for monitoring tests and during times or war. </li></ul></ul>
  29. 29. RECOMMENDATION B <ul><li>Establish a single agency responsible for real-time/near real-time products characterizing nuclear events and long-term effects </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Improve the codes that model the temporal and spatial characteristics of the beta electron environment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Develop codes which will allow a rapid calculation of the electron environment and rapid dissemination of the data to users </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The NuDet community does not have this capability and the 2010-1025 SWx models combined with NuDet data should go along way to forecasting the mid-term and long-term effects of nuclear explosion. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Fund the development and deployment of sensors capable of monitoring neutron and gamma events Data needed for SWx models of Radiation Belt, Ionosphere, Neutral Atmosphere, PCA, and Scintillation </li></ul></ul>
  30. 30. RECOMMENDATION C <ul><li>Expand the NPOESS constellation to 3 hardened satellites with 120 degrees of separation in longitude. The additions of these hardened satellites will provide a reliable method of monitoring the evolution of radiation belts following HANE or extremely severe magnetic storms. </li></ul>