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Tziralis & Ipeirotis at 3rd Prediction Markets Workshop

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A research work by George Tziralis & Panos Ipeirotis. …

A research work by George Tziralis & Panos Ipeirotis.
Detecting Important Events
using Prediction Markets, Text
Mining, and Volatility Modeling.
Presented on July 9th in the 3rd Prediction Markets workshop, Kellog's School of Management, Northwestern University, Chicago

Published in: Business

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  • 1. Detecting Important Events using Prediction Markets, Text Mining, and Volatility Modeling George Tziralis & Panos Ipeirotis
  • 2. markets and efficiency • strong: prices reflect all information, public and private • semi-strong: prices reflect all publicly available information • weak: past prices cannot be used for market prediction
  • 3. prediction markets? • Perhaps, the relationship between price and information is no more clear than in prediction markets (Pennock et al. 2002) • let’s start from the weak form of efficiency • is it possible to predict future prices using only past ones?
  • 4. playground • InTrade • political contracts • US nominee elections 08 • 800 - 1000 time series instances for each contract