Quantitative model for impact measurement system National Technical University of Athens
Identification of impact factors & their relationship <ul><li>Effect of a factor on impact: </li></ul><ul><li>Direct (vert...
Structuring the factors hierarchically <ul><li>Cognitive map </li></ul><ul><li>Cause & effect diagram </li></ul><ul><li>Tr...
Quantifying the effect of the factors on impact <ul><li>Comparing factors A i , which one does have stronger impact and ho...
Further Indicator Analysis <ul><li>For the most influential factors: </li></ul><ul><li>Paasche’s Index </li></ul><ul><li>L...
Pilot Implementation: Tourism <ul><li>Factors identified: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Hotel rooms available (A) </li></ul></ul><...
Analytic Hierarchy Process (I) <ul><li>Create pair wise comparison matrixes for each criteria, for example: </li></ul>wher...
Analytic Hierarchy Process (II) <ul><li>Sum all the values in each column </li></ul><ul><li>Divide the values in each colu...
Analytic Hierarchy Process (III) <ul><li>The following matrix (M 1 ) is now available: </li></ul>x 42 x 41 D x 32 x 31 C x...
Analytic Hierarchy Process (IV) <ul><li>Create same-structured pair wise comparison matrix for the criteria for factors se...
Analytic Hierarchy Process (V) <ul><li>After following the same process (AHP II), the following matrix M 2  would be avail...
Analytic Hierarchy Process (VI) <ul><li>The product M=M 1 xM 2  quantifies the prioritization of the factors (indicators)…...
Further Indicator Analysis <ul><li>Assume that the AHP suggested the indicators </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Hotel rooms occupied...
Paasche’s Index <ul><li>Paasche’s Index of touristic movement: </li></ul><ul><li>where  S(t): touristic currency at year t...
Laspeyres’ Index <ul><li>Laspeyres’ index of price changes: </li></ul><ul><li>Where </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>V j (t) T : ...
Philosophy of Deconstruction  (Jacques Derrida)…
Decomposition Analysis (I) <ul><li>Which is the overall change of the composition of night stays from year 0 to year t, br...
Decomposition Analysis (II) <ul><li>number of night stays in hotel category H, tourists from country C, for all months </l...
Decomposition Analysis (III) <ul><li>Quantifies the change in the composition of the total night stays in hotel categories...
Summary <ul><li>Finally, the measurement of Olympic impact on each system is modelled through: </li></ul><ul><li>Identific...
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Quantitative Model For an Impact Measurement System

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Quantitative Model For an Impact Measurement System

  1. 1. Quantitative model for impact measurement system National Technical University of Athens
  2. 2. Identification of impact factors & their relationship <ul><li>Effect of a factor on impact: </li></ul><ul><li>Direct (vertical) effect </li></ul><ul><li>Indirect (horizontal) effect </li></ul><ul><li>Self-interaction effect </li></ul>
  3. 3. Structuring the factors hierarchically <ul><li>Cognitive map </li></ul><ul><li>Cause & effect diagram </li></ul><ul><li>Tree diagram </li></ul>
  4. 4. Quantifying the effect of the factors on impact <ul><li>Comparing factors A i , which one does have stronger impact and how strong? </li></ul><ul><li>Analytic Hierarchy Process </li></ul><ul><ul><li>see Saaty, T.L., 1980, “The Analytic Hierarchy Process”, McGraw-Hill, New York </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Output: Indicators Prioritization </li></ul>
  5. 5. Further Indicator Analysis <ul><li>For the most influential factors: </li></ul><ul><li>Paasche’s Index </li></ul><ul><li>Laspeyres’ Index </li></ul><ul><li>Decomposition Analysis </li></ul>
  6. 6. Pilot Implementation: Tourism <ul><li>Factors identified: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Hotel rooms available (A) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Hotel rooms occupied (B) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Tourists Arrivals (C) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Touristic currency (D) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Structure </li></ul><ul><ul><li>All are one-level sub factors </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Criteria of factors selection </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Importance </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Acquisition Difficulty </li></ul></ul>
  7. 7. Analytic Hierarchy Process (I) <ul><li>Create pair wise comparison matrixes for each criteria, for example: </li></ul>where a i [1,…,9] ( Z) and declare importance (preference level) 1 a 6 -1 a 5 -1 a 3 -1 D a 6 1 a 4 -1 a 2 -1 C a 5 a 4 1 a 1 -1 B a 3 a 2 a 1 1 A D C B A Importance
  8. 8. Analytic Hierarchy Process (II) <ul><li>Sum all the values in each column </li></ul><ul><li>Divide the values in each column by the corresponding column sum </li></ul><ul><li>Find the average of each row (decimal) </li></ul>
  9. 9. Analytic Hierarchy Process (III) <ul><li>The following matrix (M 1 ) is now available: </li></ul>x 42 x 41 D x 32 x 31 C x 22 x 21 B x 12 x 11 A Difficulty Importance Tourism
  10. 10. Analytic Hierarchy Process (IV) <ul><li>Create same-structured pair wise comparison matrix for the criteria for factors selection: </li></ul>1 b 1 -1 Difficulty b 1 1 Importance Difficulty Importance Tourism
  11. 11. Analytic Hierarchy Process (V) <ul><li>After following the same process (AHP II), the following matrix M 2 would be available: </li></ul>y 2 Difficulty y 1 Importance Row average Tourism
  12. 12. Analytic Hierarchy Process (VI) <ul><li>The product M=M 1 xM 2 quantifies the prioritization of the factors (indicators)… </li></ul>r d D r c C r b B r a A Ranking Tourism
  13. 13. Further Indicator Analysis <ul><li>Assume that the AHP suggested the indicators </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Hotel rooms occupied (B) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Tourists Arrivals (C) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Touristic currency (D) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Now we can move on to further analysis </li></ul>
  14. 14. Paasche’s Index <ul><li>Paasche’s Index of touristic movement: </li></ul><ul><li>where S(t): touristic currency at year t, </li></ul><ul><li>CPI: consumer price index </li></ul>
  15. 15. Laspeyres’ Index <ul><li>Laspeyres’ index of price changes: </li></ul><ul><li>Where </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>V j (t) T : Arrivals at year t, tourist category j </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>σ j (t) T : Touristic currency per arrival at year t (tourist category j) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>: Touristic currency per arrival at year t (tourist category j) with prices of year ‘0’ </li></ul></ul></ul>
  16. 16. Philosophy of Deconstruction (Jacques Derrida)…
  17. 17. Decomposition Analysis (I) <ul><li>Which is the overall change of the composition of night stays from year 0 to year t, broken into hotel category, country of origin and month? </li></ul><ul><li>An objective meter is: </li></ul><ul><li>where H: hotel, C: country & M: month </li></ul>
  18. 18. Decomposition Analysis (II) <ul><li>number of night stays in hotel category H, tourists from country C, for all months </li></ul><ul><li>cell’s ‘HC●’ participation in total night stays </li></ul><ul><li>participation of month ‘M’ in the night stays of cell ‘HC●’ </li></ul>
  19. 19. Decomposition Analysis (III) <ul><li>Quantifies the change in the composition of the total night stays in hotel categories and countries of origin </li></ul><ul><li>Quantifies the change in the composition of each ‘HC●’ cell in months </li></ul>
  20. 20. Summary <ul><li>Finally, the measurement of Olympic impact on each system is modelled through: </li></ul><ul><li>Identification of the main impact factors & their relationship structure </li></ul><ul><li>Determinable quantification (prioritization) of the factors impact on the system through Analytic Hierarchy Process </li></ul><ul><li>Advanced analysis of the most influential indicators </li></ul>

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