20130607 arecs web_forecast_video_autumn_sun

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  • 1. Climate Forecasting UnitAUTUMNSeasonal Forecasts forGlobal Solar PV EnergyMelanie Davis, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Fabian Lienert
  • 2. Climate Forecasting UnitFig. S1.3.1: Autumn solar GHI availability from 1981-2011 (ERA-Interim)m/sStage A: Solar GHI (Global Horizontal Irradiance) Resource AssessmentSolar PV energy potential: Where is it the sunniest?Darker red regions of this map show where global solar GHI is highest in autumn, and lighter yellow regionswhere it is lowest.N.b. This information is based on reanalysis* data (ERA-Interim) not direct observations.* Reanalysis information comes from an objective combination of observations and numerical models that simulate one or more aspects of the Earth system, togenerate a synthesised estimate of the state of the climate system and how it changes over time.AUTUMN Solar PV Forecasts(September + October + November)
  • 3. Climate Forecasting UnitFig. S1.3.2: Autumn solar GHI inter-annual variability from 1981-2011 (ERA-Interim)m/sStage A: Solar GHI Resource AssessmentSolar PV energy volatility: Where does solar radiation vary the greatest?Darker red regions of this map show where global solar GHI varies the most from one year to the next inautumn, and lighter yellow regions where it varies the least.N.b. This information is based on reanalysis* data (ERA-Interim) not direct observations.AUTUMN Solar PV Forecasts(September + October + November)
  • 4. Climate Forecasting UnitEuropeAutumn solar GHI availability Autumn solar GHI inter-annual variabilitym/sAreas ofinterest: WholeContinentS.AfricanContinentS.E.MainlandAsia/Philippines/IndonesiaE.Australia/Papua NewGuineaS.America Africa Asia AustraliaN.Mexico/S.E. USAN.AmericaSpain/Portugal/MediterraneanStage A: Solar GHI Resource AssessmentWhere is solar PV energy resource potential and variability highest?By comparing both the autumn global solar GHI availability and inter-annual variability, it can be seen thatthere are several key areas (listed above) where solar GHI is both abundant and highly variable.These regions are most vulnerable to solar GHI variability over climate timescales, and are therefore ofgreatest interest for seasonal forecasting in autumn.AUTUMN Solar PV Forecasts(September + October + November)
  • 5. Climate Forecasting UnitFig. S2.3.1: Autumn solar GHI ensemble mean correlation(ECMWF S4, 1 month forecast lead time, once a year from 1981-2010)timeforecast+ 1.0obs. forecast- 1.0forecastexample 1forecast- 1.0example 2example 3Stage B: Solar GHI Forecast Skill Assessment1Stvalidation of the climate forecast system:The skill of a climate forecast system, to predict global solar GHI variability in autumn 1 month ahead, ispartially shown in this map. Skill is assessed by comparing the mean of a autumn solar GHI forecast, madeevery year since 1981, to the reanalysis “observations” over the same period. If they follow the same variabilityover time, the skill is positive. This is the case even if their magnitudes are different (see example 1 and 2).PerfectForecastSame asClimatologyWorsethanClima-tologyAUTUMN Solar PV Forecasts(September + October + November)Can the solar forecast mean tell us aboutthe solar GHI resource variabilityat a specific time?SolarGHI
  • 6. Climate Forecasting UnitFig. S2.3.1: Autumn solar GHI ensemble mean correlation(ECMWF S4, 1 month forecast lead time, once a year from 1981-2010)Stage B: Solar GHI Forecast Skill Assessment1Stvalidation of the climate forecast system:Dark red regions of the map show where the climate forecast system demonstrates the highest skill in autumnseasonal forecasting, with a forecast issued 1 month in advance. White regions show where there is noavailable forecast skill, and blue regions where the climate forecast system performs worse than a randomprediction. A skill of 1 corresponds to a climate forecast that can perfectly represent the past “observations”.PerfectForecastSame asClimatologyWorsethanClima-tologyAUTUMN Solar PV Forecasts(September + October + November)Can the solar forecast mean tell us aboutthe solar GHI resource variabilityat a specific time?
  • 7. Climate Forecasting UnitFig. S2.3.2: Autumn solar GHI CR probability skill score(ECMWF S4, 1 month forecast lead time, once a year from 1981-2010)timeforecast+ 1.0obs. forecast- 1.0forecastexample 1forecast- 1.0example 2example 3Stage B: Solar GHI Forecast Skill Assessment2ndvalidation of the climate forecast system:The skill of a climate forecast system, to predict global solar GHI variability in autumn 1 month ahead, is fullyshown in this map. Here, skill is assessed by comparing the full distribution (not just the mean value as in theprevious map) of an autumn solar GHI forecast, made every year since 1981, to the “observations” over thesame period. If they follow the same magnitude of variability over time, the skill is positive (example 2).PerfectForecastSame asClimatologyWorsethanClima-tologyAUTUMN Solar PV Forecasts(September + October + November)Can the solar forecast distribution tell usabout the magnitude of the solar GHIresource variability and its uncertainty atspecific time?SolarGHI
  • 8. Climate Forecasting UnitFig. S2.3.2: Autumn solar GHI CR probability skill score(ECMWF S4, 1 month forecast lead time, once a year from 1981-2010)Stage B: Solar GHI Forecast Skill Assessment2ndvalidation of the climate forecast system:Dark red regions of the map show where the climate forecast system demonstrates the highest skill in autumnseasonal forecasting, with a forecast issued 1 month in advance. White regions show where there is noavailable forecast skill, and blue regions where the climate forecast system performs worse than a randomprediction. A skill of 1 corresponds to a climate forecast that can perfectly represent the past “observations”.PerfectForecastSame asClimatologyWorsethanClima-tologyAUTUMN Solar PV Forecasts(September + October + November)Can the solar forecast distribution tell usabout the magnitude of the solar GHIresource variability and its uncertainty atspecific time?
  • 9. Climate Forecasting UnitEuropeAreas ofinterest:N.Patagonia/N.E.Coast(variability skill only)Indonesia/Malaysia/SingaporeN.E.AustraliaS.America Africa Asia AustraliaN.USA/CaribbeanN.AmericaUK/SpainPortugal/Sardinia/CorsicaAutumn solar GHI magnitude, and itsuncertainty forecast skillAutumn solar GHI variability forecast skillSolar GHI variabilityforecast skill onlySolar GHI magnitude and its uncertainty forecast skillTanzania/KenyaCoastStage B: Solar GHI Forecast Skill Assessment Where is solar GHI forecast skill highest?By comparing both the autumn global solar GHI forecast skill assessments, it can be seen that there areseveral key areas (listed above) where solar GHI forecasts are skilful in assessing its variability, magnitudeand uncertainty. These regions show the greatest potential for the use of operational autumn wind forecasts,and are therefore of greatest interest to seasonal solar GHI forecasting in autumn.AUTUMN Solar PV Forecasts(September + October + November)
  • 10. Climate Forecasting UnitMexico/S.CanadaStage B: Solar GHI Forecast Skill AssessmentMagnitude and uncertainty forecast skillVariability forecast skillm/sm/sm/sSPRING Wind ForecastsThese four maps compare the seasonal autumn solar GHI global forecast skill maps (bottom) alongside theautumn global solar GHI availability and inter-annual variability map (top). It can be seen that there are severalkey areas (highlighted above) where the forecast skill is high in both its variability, magnitude and uncertainty,and the solar GHI is both abundant and highly variable. These regions demonstrate where autumn seasonalsolar GHI forecasts have the greatest value and potential for operational use.EuropeAreas ofInterest:(Forecast skill)Indonesia/Malaysia/SingaporeW.S.America Africa Asia AustraliaN.AmericaXXCOASTN.Patagonia/N.E.CoastN.E.AustraliaEurope S.America Africa Asia AustraliaN.AmericaWholeContinentS.AfricaContinentS.E.Mainland AsiaPhilippines/IndonesiaW.Australia/TazmaniaN.Mexico/S.E. USASpain/Portugal/MediterraneanAreas ofInterest:(Resources)E.AustraliaSolar GHI resource inter-annual variabilitySolar GHI resource availabilityStage A: Solar GHI Resource AssessmentVariability forecast skillWhere is solar GHI forecast skill highest?Where is solar resource potential + volatility highestAUTUMN Solar PV Forecasts(September + October + November)IndonesiaN.USA/CaribbeanIndonesiaUK/SpainPortugal/Sardinia/CorsicaTanzania/KenyaCoast
  • 11. Climate Forecasting Unit%EuropeSpain/Portugal/SicilyAreas of Interest Identified:(Resources and Forecast Skill)W.AustraliaE.AustraliaFig. S3.3.1: Probabilistic forecast of (future) autumn 2011, solar GHI most likely tercile(ECMWF S4, 1 month forecast lead time)Stage C: Operational Solar GHI ForecastThis operational solar forecast shows the probability of global solar GHI resource to be higher (red), lower(blue) or normal (white) over the forthcoming autumn season, compared to their mean value over the past 30years. As the forecast season is autumn 2011, this is an example of solar GHI forecast information that couldhave been available for use within a decision making process in August 2011.AUTUMN Solar PV Forecasts(September + October + November)AsiaIndonesiaAfricaTanzania/KenyaCoastS.AmericaN.PatagoniaN.E.CoastS.America
  • 12. Climate Forecasting Unit%Stage C: Operational Solar GHI ForecastThe key areas of highest interest are shown, identified in the stages A and B of the forecast methodology.These regions demonstrate where autumn seasonal solar GHI forecasts have the greatest value and potentialfor operational use. The areas that are blanked out either have lower forecast skill in autumn (Stage B) and/orlower solar GHI availability and inter-annual variability (Stage A).Fig. S3.3.1: Probabilistic forecast of (future) autumn 2011, solar GHI most likely tercile(ECMWF S4, 1 month forecast lead time)AUTUMN Solar PV Forecasts(September + October + November)Fig. S3.3.1: Probabilistic forecast of (future) autumn 2011, solar GHI most likely tercile(ECMWF S4, 1 month forecast lead time)EuropeSpain/Portugal/SicilyAreas of Interest Identified:(Resources and Forecast Skill)W.AustraliaE.AustraliaAsiaIndonesiaAfricaTanzania/KenyaCoastS.AmericaN.PatagoniaN.E.CoastS.America
  • 13. Climate Forecasting Unit%Stage C: Operational Solar GHI ForecastThis does not mean that the blanked out areas are not useful, only that the operational solar GHI forecast forthese regions should be used within a decision making process with due awareness to their correspondinglimitations. The primary limitations to a climate forecast are either the forecast skill and/or the low risk ofvariability in solar GHI for a given region. See the “caveats” webpage for further limitations.Fig. S3.3.1: Probabilistic forecast of (future) autumn 2011, solar GHI most likely tercile(ECMWF S4, 1 month forecast lead time)AUTUMN Solar PV Forecasts(September + October + November)Fig. S3.3.1: Probabilistic forecast of (future) autumn 2011, solar GHI most likely tercile(ECMWF S4, 1 month forecast lead time)EuropeSpain/Portugal/SicilyAreas of Interest Identified:(Resources and Forecast Skill)S.AmericaN.PatagoniaN.E.CoastW.AustraliaE.AustraliaS.AmericaAsiaIndonesiaAfricaTanzania/KenyaCoast
  • 14. Climate Forecasting UnitThe research leading to these results has received fundingfrom the European Union Seventh Framework Programme(FP7/2007-2013) under the following projects:CLIM-RUN, www.clim-run.eu (GA n° 265192)EUPORIAS, www.euporias.eu (GA n° 308291)SPECS, www.specs-fp7.eu (GA n° 308378)