At the Threshold: Higher education, complexity, and change<br />George Siemens<br />September 1, 2011<br />Pretoria, Sout...
With thanks to fellowship via<br />For thinking time<br />
First, a few thoughts on complexity and change<br />
Complex systems: <br />“a set of diverse actors who dynamically interact with one another awash in a sea of feedbacks.” <b...
Complexity: <br />“disturbing traits of mess, of the inextricable, or disorder, of ambiguity, or uncertainty”<br />Morin, ...
Complicated systems: <br />Reducible, every piece fits, cause-effect relationship<br />
Learning is a <br />complex process(mainly because people are complex)<br />Our institutions today (attempt to) manage it ...
If it changes how information is created<br />If it changes how information is shared<br />If it changes how information i...
Then it will change <br />education, <br />teaching, <br />and learning<br />
Yeah, but then why has the education system been slow to change?<br />
JamilSalmi, 2009<br />
JamilSalmi, 2009<br />
Mixed messages<br />
“Thirty years from now the big university campuses will be relics. Universities won't survive. It's as large a change as w...
Students, however, can no longer assume that a four year degree will be the golden ticket to a good job in a global econom...
20 people under the age of 20.<br />$100,000. <br />Drop out of school. <br />Change the world.<br />
Higher education: the latest bubble?<br />
…and in the other corner<br />
150.6 million higher education students globally. 53% increase from 2000.<br />Altbach, Reisberg, Rumbley, 2009<br />
India.<br />Challenge: <br />add 800 new universities by 2020<br />June 9, 2011<br />
$20 Billion. Opened September 2009<br />
University as economic engines:<br />In the economy of the future, the businesses that will have staying power, and growth...
So?<br />
Universities won’t go away.But they won’t be like we know them today.<br />
Distance education represents an area of enormous potential for higher education systems around the world struggling to me...
http://www.scribd.com/doc/48586092/KPCB-Top-10-Mobile-Trends<br />
The university has secured the option to borrow $7-million to help pay for the project and may spend $4-million to $7-mill...
Everyone, every company, every cause, can/will have their own university<br />
Creating integrated ecosystems:Content,Delivery,Assessment<br />(he who integrates, rules. <br />Really, I mean that)<br />
Change coming from the outside.Edtech entrepreneurs & startups. <br />
Other change drivers:<br />Cloud<br />Big Data<br />Mobiles<br />Globalization<br />Internationalization<br />
Challenge for universities in advanced economies: <br />sustainability<br />Challenge for emerging economies: <br />meetin...
What would education look like if we designed it today?<br />
It would look like the internet<br />Open<br />Accessible<br />Distributed<br />Scalable<br />Social<br />Networked<br />S...
Or, a bit like this:<br />
2008, 2009, 2011<br />
But we’re not the only ones.<br />
What is the technical ecosystem of open online learning?<br />
and the pedagogical model?<br />
change.mooc.ca<br />Twitter: gsiemens <br />www.elearnspace.org/blog<br />Learning Analytics & Knowledge 2012: <br />Vanco...
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UNISA: South Africa

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  • Very interesting presentation. I agree that there is a huge need to look at integration and there are other aspects beyond pedagogic and technical integration e.g. universities are large business entities invested in by their student customers and society/ government.
    I wondered why you didn't cite Snowden http://www.mendeley.com/research/a-leaders-framework-for-decision-making-a-leaders-framework-for-decision-making/#
    Emerging alternative models are part of the act, sense, respond cycle. Scott Wilson gives some interesting examples of these http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CCAQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fzope.cetis.ac.uk%2Fmembers%2Fscott%2Fresources%2Fed_media.doc&rct=j&q=scott%20wilson%20institutional%20%20integration&ei=yTtfTrTrCo6w8QOl0PmmAw&usg=AFQjCNG8a7yEPwtgwImWMaE2LvlcjEVBRQ&sig2=rIf8AlLG0vNR6Sgly7zcjA&cad=rja
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  • http://www.forbes.com/forbes/1997/0310/5905122a_7.html
  • http://www.pimco.com/EN/Insights/Pages/School-Daze-School-Daze-Good-Old-Golden-Rule-Days.aspx
  • http://thielfoundation.org/index.php?option=com_content&amp;view=article&amp;id=15&amp;Itemid=21
  • http://chronicle.com/article/Why-Education-Is-Not-an/128790/
  • http://www.timeshighereducation.co.uk/story.asp?sectioncode=26&amp;storycode=416443&amp;c=1
  • http://www.sciencemag.org/content/326/5951/354.summary
  • A New Paradigm for Economic Growth, March 2010
  • http://pewsocialtrends.org/files/2011/08/online-learning.pdf
  • UNISA: South Africa

    1. 1.  At the Threshold: Higher education, complexity, and change<br />George Siemens<br />September 1, 2011<br />Pretoria, South Africa<br />
    2. 2. With thanks to fellowship via<br />For thinking time<br />
    3. 3. First, a few thoughts on complexity and change<br />
    4. 4. Complex systems: <br />“a set of diverse actors who dynamically interact with one another awash in a sea of feedbacks.” <br />Miller and Page, 2007<br />
    5. 5. Complexity: <br />“disturbing traits of mess, of the inextricable, or disorder, of ambiguity, or uncertainty”<br />Morin, 2008 <br />
    6. 6. Complicated systems: <br />Reducible, every piece fits, cause-effect relationship<br />
    7. 7. Learning is a <br />complex process(mainly because people are complex)<br />Our institutions today (attempt to) manage it like it is <br />complicated system.<br />
    8. 8. If it changes how information is created<br />If it changes how information is shared<br />If it changes how information is evaluated…<br />If it changes how people connect<br />If it changes how people communicate<br />If it changes what people can do for themselves…<br />
    9. 9. Then it will change <br />education, <br />teaching, <br />and learning<br />
    10. 10. Yeah, but then why has the education system been slow to change?<br />
    11. 11. JamilSalmi, 2009<br />
    12. 12. JamilSalmi, 2009<br />
    13. 13.
    14. 14.
    15. 15.
    16. 16. Mixed messages<br />
    17. 17. “Thirty years from now the big university campuses will be relics. Universities won't survive. It's as large a change as when we first got the printed book.”<br />Drucker, Forbes, 1997<br />
    18. 18. Students, however, can no longer assume that a four year degree will be the golden ticket to a good job in a global economy that cares little for their social networking skills and more about what their labor is worth on the global marketplace.<br />Bill Gross, 2011<br />
    19. 19. 20 people under the age of 20.<br />$100,000. <br />Drop out of school. <br />Change the world.<br />
    20. 20.
    21. 21. Higher education: the latest bubble?<br />
    22. 22. …and in the other corner<br />
    23. 23. 150.6 million higher education students globally. 53% increase from 2000.<br />Altbach, Reisberg, Rumbley, 2009<br />
    24. 24. India.<br />Challenge: <br />add 800 new universities by 2020<br />June 9, 2011<br />
    25. 25. $20 Billion. Opened September 2009<br />
    26. 26. University as economic engines:<br />In the economy of the future, the businesses that will have staying power, and growth potential, will be those most dependent on knowledge — on research, new ideas, new technologies, new processes, upgraded skills for their workers.<br />Rockefeller Institute, 2010<br />
    27. 27. So?<br />
    28. 28. Universities won’t go away.But they won’t be like we know them today.<br />
    29. 29.
    30. 30. Distance education represents an area of enormous potential for higher education systems around the world struggling to meet the needs of growing and changing student populations. <br />The distance learning landscape has been transformed by ICTs, allowing for real growth in numbers and types of providers, curriculum developers, modes of delivery and pedagogical innovations.<br />Altbach, Reisberg, Rumbley, 2009<br />
    31. 31.
    32. 32. http://www.scribd.com/doc/48586092/KPCB-Top-10-Mobile-Trends<br />
    33. 33.
    34. 34. The university has secured the option to borrow $7-million to help pay for the project and may spend $4-million to $7-million of that money over the next several years, he said.<br />In order to repay what it borrows, Mr. Greenstein outlined a new plan to offer the online courses to people not enrolled at the University of California, as well as to undergraduates. Tuition from those students will pay the loan back, he said.”<br />
    35. 35. Everyone, every company, every cause, can/will have their own university<br />
    36. 36. Creating integrated ecosystems:Content,Delivery,Assessment<br />(he who integrates, rules. <br />Really, I mean that)<br />
    37. 37. Change coming from the outside.Edtech entrepreneurs & startups. <br />
    38. 38. Other change drivers:<br />Cloud<br />Big Data<br />Mobiles<br />Globalization<br />Internationalization<br />
    39. 39. Challenge for universities in advanced economies: <br />sustainability<br />Challenge for emerging economies: <br />meeting existing demand<br />
    40. 40. What would education look like if we designed it today?<br />
    41. 41. It would look like the internet<br />Open<br />Accessible<br />Distributed<br />Scalable<br />Social<br />Networked<br />Self-organizing<br />Creativity-driven<br />Derivative and iterative improvements<br />Connected to amplify effects<br />Adaptive<br />Global<br />Multimedia-based<br />
    42. 42. Or, a bit like this:<br />
    43. 43. 2008, 2009, 2011<br />
    44. 44. But we’re not the only ones.<br />
    45. 45.
    46. 46. What is the technical ecosystem of open online learning?<br />
    47. 47.
    48. 48. and the pedagogical model?<br />
    49. 49.
    50. 50.
    51. 51. change.mooc.ca<br />Twitter: gsiemens <br />www.elearnspace.org/blog<br />Learning Analytics & Knowledge 2012: <br />Vancouver<br />http://lak12.sites.olt.ubc.ca/<br />
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