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How Large Systems Change

How Large Systems Change



Presented to University of South Australia

Presented to University of South Australia



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  • Can we have the reference for Perez 2002? I'm guessing it's not:
    Perez, José Angel Alvarez, Daniela Cordella de Aguiar, and Uirá Cavalcante Oliveira. 'Biology and population dynamics of the long-finned squid Loligo plei (Cephalopoda: Loliginidae) in southern Brazilian waters.' Fisheries research 58.3 (2002): 267-279.
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  • http://www.wired.com/rawfile/2013/04/will-steacy-philadelphia-inquirer/
  • http://www.slideshare.net/fredwilson/carlota-perez-talk-at
  • http://www.slideshare.net/fredwilson/carlota-perez-talk-at
  • 2011 Year in Review: Global changes in Tuition Fee Policies and Student Assistance
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  • http://gsvadvisors.com/wordpress/wp-content/themes/gsvadvisors/GSV%20Advisors_Fall%20of%20the%20Wall_2012-06-28.pdf
  • IBIS Capital | Global e-Learning Investment Review
  • http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2013/01/16/business/In-Education-China-Takes-the-Lead.html?smid=tw-share
  • http://universityprobe.org/2013/08/uc-101-educating-our-new-president-lesson-4/
  • http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/land/fcs.htmhttp://www.warisboring.com/2007/10/17/army-future-combat-systems-tech-incubator/http://www.bctmod.army.mil/
  • http://www.lfhe.ac.uk/en/components/publication.cfm/ST%20-%2006
  • http://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/University_of_the_future/$FILE/University_of_the_future_2012.pdf
  • https://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/Economic_Studies/Productivity_Performance/Preparing_for_a_new_era_of_knowledge_work_3034
  • http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/09/population-distribution-1900-2060.html
  • http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/09/population-distribution-1900-2060.html
  • http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/09/population-distribution-1900-2060.html
  • International Journal of Communication 5 (2011), 773–787
  • http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21528750.100-the-battle-of-freedom-and-control-in-a-networked-world.html
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How Large Systems Change How Large Systems Change Presentation Transcript

  • How large systems change: Thoughts on the future of higher education George Siemens, PhD September 3, 2013 University of South Australia
  • Philadelphia Inquirer Newsroom, 2009
  • Philadelphia Inquirer Newsroom, 2012
  • Technological and economic pressures change even the biggest institutions.
  • We don’t know what higher education will become
  • But we have models of how it will change
  • Perez 2011
  • Perez 2002
  • Perez 2002
  • Perez 2011
  • Economic
  • “In the face of continued increases in participation, demographic change and – in the west at least – profound fiscal crises, higher education institutions are increasingly being required to raise funds from students as opposed to relying on transfers from governments.” Marcucci & Usher 2012
  • Meeker & Wu, 2013
  • Education Sector Factbook, 2012
  • IBIS Capital: Global e-Learning Investment Review, 2013
  • NYTimes, UNESCO Data
  • Economic
  • Meeker & Wu, 2013
  • Meeker & Wu, 2013
  • Getting the idea, but not the scope of change
  • What does this mean for education?
  • “Changing…higher education is a faculty responsibility” Zemsky 2013
  • A university as “assemblage of strangers from all parts in one spot” J.H. Newman Lecturers 1854-1859
  • What we are seeing is the complexification of higher education Learning needs are complex, ongoing Simple singular narrative won’t suffice going forward The idea of the university is expanding and diversifying
  • McKinsey Quarterly, 2012
  • CalculatedRISK, 2013
  • CalculatedRISK, 2013
  • CalculatedRISK, 2013
  • Challenge then is to create a new integrated whole
  • Challenge then is to create a new integrated system
  • University as an agent within society
  • Network Theory of Power Networking Power Network Power Networked Power Network-making Power Castells, 2011
  • the world will fragment, with some parts moving towards the brighter side of networked individualism and other parts moving towards gated communities and more tightly controlled information flows.
  • Network Theory of Change
  • Network Theory of Change Core nodes Impacting factors (economic, technical) Connection validation Social and cultural milieu (institutional change) Resonance Integration (hardening) for power
  • Current reforms are allowing certain individuals with neither scholarly nor practical expertise in education to exert significant influence over educational policy for communities and children other than their own.
  • Prominent trends shaping the future of higher education 1. Openness 2. Digital learning 3. Granularized learning 4. Data & analytics 5. For-profit/startups (expanding ecosystem) 6. Personalization/adaptivity 7. Wearable/contextual computing 8. Unbundling of organizational roles 9. Blurring distinctive learning roles (lifelong) 10.Degrees and alternative recognition models
  • When systems are distributed, alternative modes of integration are needed Stasser-Titus (1985)
  • Value is in the lock-in and integration (i.e. ecosystem and new networks)
  • Higher education change 1. Understand how large systems change 2. Track data relating to sector around technology and economics 3. Position techno-economic change in social contexts/zeitgeist/values 4. Aggressive experimentation and new models (without regard for existing norms/legacies) 5. New ecosystems and new integration models
  • Futures Scenarios for Universities 1. Status Quo 2. Accreditors (teach globally, accredit locally) -Outsourcing of services (tech, curriculum, testing) 3. Unbundled (teacher/research separate) 4. Localized/specialized 5. “Transformed” (online, blended) 6. Successful universities as “new integrators” - Formation of integrated value ecosystem
  • What to expect: - Outsourcing of services (tech, curriculum, teaching, testing) - Increased collaboration/partnerships with sector-providers - New entrants (often startups) into the integrated value ecosystem - Successful universities are “new integrators” - Labor strife - Concerns about pace of, and ideologies behind, change
  • Twitter/Gmail: gsiemens