Frost & Sullivan


Top Ten Technologies and their Market Potential

Presented by
Krzysztof
Grzybowski
Industry Analyst /
T...
Krzysztof Grzybowski


                              Krzysztof Grzybowski is Industry Analyst in the Frost &
             ...
Agenda



o   Few words as introduction to the presentation
o   Our assessment methodology
o   List of the most attractive...
is innovation?                   are the best ways to transfer
                                        innovation into ind...
are the best ways to transfer innovation into
       is innovation?
                                            industry?
...
Top 10 Hot & Emerging Technologies …
                                                                                     ...
… and the “award” goes to …
Through its constant global assessment, Frost & Sullivan has identified the following key tech...
Recession is a catalyst for increased innovation

                                                                        ...
Nanomaterials
                                                                                                         Exa...
Nanomaterials penetration – Transparent conductive film case study


One of the most popular on the market transparent con...
Flexible Electronics
                                                                                    Market Potential
...
CIGS (copper indium gallium selenide) solar cells are one of the PV
        solutions on technology roadmap
CIGS is the mo...
Key Insight: Solar accounted for 29% (119 deals in 2008)
                                     of the overall number of VC ...
Advanced Batteries and Energy Storage




                                       Micro UAV
                               ...
Wasted heat reutilization with Thermoelectrics

                                 • • American Department of Energy initiat...
Key Insight: Within the various types of smart materials,
Smart Materials                                     Piezoelectri...
Green IT


   The goals of green IT include the usage of novel
     The goals of green IT include the usage of novel
techn...
IC systems evolution toward 3D packaging

                   System-In-
                  Package (SiP)


 3D Integration ...
Key Insight: Globally, on-going programs in related
Autonomous Systems                                              areas ...
Key Insight: Potential market size by 2014 (of
White Biotech                                  chemicals relying on White B...
White Biotech case studies

 Vitamin B2 production                                            Cephalexin (antibiotic)
 • •...
Lasers

                                                        Global
                            Market in 2008 : $6.22 ...
Impact Mapping of Top Ten Technologies on CEE Industry

      Mature




                                                 ...
CEE attractiveness for R&D activities
Key reasons for investing in R&D in CEE

                                           ...
Foreign investments in R&D centers in Poland

                                Intel, Compuware,
                          ...
Few final remarks and conclusions


         Players from CEE markets are in good technical position to undertake R&D prog...
Dr in . Krzysztof Grzybowski
Industry Analyst - Team Leader, TI
Frost & Sullivan
DID +48 22 390 4140
Mobile +48 783391860
...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

10 Top Ten Technologies to Invest (2010)

1,528

Published on

This presentation covers the most attractive technologies to invest. Krzysztof Grzybowski

Published in: Technology
0 Comments
1 Like
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
1,528
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
1
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
72
Comments
0
Likes
1
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

10 Top Ten Technologies to Invest (2010)

  1. 1. Frost & Sullivan Top Ten Technologies and their Market Potential Presented by Krzysztof Grzybowski Industry Analyst / Team Leader “… There are 100 ways to wisely spend money, but only few of them are successful…”. Warsaw, 22nd April 2010
  2. 2. Krzysztof Grzybowski Krzysztof Grzybowski is Industry Analyst in the Frost & Sullivan Technical Insights Team. He focuses on monitoring and analyzing emerging trends, technologies and market in of chemicals, materials, and food ingredients industries across the globe. He has joined the Frost & Sullivan in December 2007. Additionally, he is one of the contributor to the Technical Insights' weekly Advanced Coatings & Surface Technology Alert, Nanotechnology Alert and High-Tech Materials Alert . Industry Analyst, Krzysztof holds a PhD in Chemical and Process Engineering Team Leader from Warsaw University of Technology in Poland. Before joining Frost & Sullivan Krzysztof was leading research project at Energy Conversion Research Center in Kyoto. PhD Chemical and Process Further, he was working as assistant professor at Institute of Engineering, Warsaw Physical Chemistry of Polish Academy of Science and University of Technology, focusing on development of microfluidic devices. He has Poland several publications referring to the nanomaterials and nanoparticles, microfluidic devices, aerosols and filtration Research Fellow of Energy processes in noted periodics. Conversion Research Center, Kyoto, Japan. © Frost & Sullivan 2010 2
  3. 3. Agenda o Few words as introduction to the presentation o Our assessment methodology o List of the most attractive technologies to invest o Detailed analysis of each of the chosen technologies o Comments on applicability of Top Ten Technologies in CEE area. o Conclusions and questions © Frost & Sullivan 2010 3
  4. 4. is innovation? are the best ways to transfer innovation into industry? What What What What are the most promising are the challenges technologies to invest? of its commercialization? © Frost & Sullivan 2010 4
  5. 5. are the best ways to transfer innovation into is innovation? industry? What What What What are the challenges of its are the most promising commercialization? technologies to invest? © Frost & Sullivan 2010 5
  6. 6. Top 10 Hot & Emerging Technologies … Selection Methodology Step 0 Framework finalization Step 1 Create aa set of technologies Create set of technologies Step 2 (> 25) that are poised to have Collection of Technologies (> 25) that are poised to have across Industries a significant impact in 2 phased evaluation of a significant impact in the near-mid term the near-mid term Technologies to identify the top candidates st level filter criterions to assess true potential of Develop 11st level filter criterions to assess true potential of Develop technologies across applications. For that purpose, Frost && Sullivan technologies across applications. For that purpose, Frost Sullivan used the Technology Analysis Framework (TAF). used the Technology Analysis Framework (TAF). Our approach utilized the interrelation && dynamics between all Our approach utilized the interrelation dynamics between all focal points (such as NEED, FUNDING,OPPORTUNITY and focal points (such as NEED, FUNDING,OPPORTUNITY and CAPABILITY) that govern technology development, adoption CAPABILITY) that govern technology development, adoption and deployment in any industry for any technology and deployment in any industry for any technology Arrive at the final list of top 10 global technologies Arrive at the final list of top 10 global technologies nd by testing them against 22nd by testing them against level criterions level criterions © Frost & Sullivan 2010 6
  7. 7. … and the “award” goes to … Through its constant global assessment, Frost & Sullivan has identified the following key technology platforms that are poised to have a profound impact on a number of sectors across the globe. These areas present a potential high ROI for any foray made by VC’s, PE, Investment Bankers etc. • Nanomaterials • CIGS Solar • Flexible Electronics • 3D Integration • Advanced Batteries and • Autonomous Systems Energy Storage • White Biotech • Smart Materials • Lasers • Green IT © Frost & Sullivan 2010 7
  8. 8. Recession is a catalyst for increased innovation Global R&D expenditures on Nanotechnology Skeptics suspected that companies 25,000 would cut R&D funds on the first sign of 20,000 red ink. Innovation is critical as companies are preparing for upturn. So, 15,000 $ bn many companies have expanded their 10,000 products portfolio or pursue new 5,000 solutions to improve company’s growth and margins. 0,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 year Global Nanotechnology market Abandoning the R&D programs is like 250 unilateral disarmament in wartime. In 2015 global nanotechnology market 200 will reachvalue of 2500 $bn Companies are committed in product 150 development for many years and going out $ bn 100 from R&D investments could impact the entity’s market potential for many years. 50 0 Tough times are the best moment for 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 building advantage over competitors. year Source: Frost & Sullivan © Frost & Sullivan 2010 8
  9. 9. Nanomaterials Example – Graphene Most of the R&D efforts in nanocomposites are focused on the integration of carbon nanotubes (CNTs) or inorganic nanoparticles into polymer matrices. Nanotubes and nanoparticles have experienced many years of research and development effort on a global scale. Touted as the ‘next star’ of Nanotech world, Graphene has inherent qualities that might make it a serious competitor for carbon nano tubes (CNT’s). Insight Insight • Aerospace • Exfoliation • Automotive Potential Production Applications • Fuel Cells • Epitaxial Growth • Electronic Devices • Space, Niche etc. • High degrees of toughness • Princeton University • Vorbeck Property • Surge in electrical conductivity with Active • University of Manchester • Nanotek Advantages change in volume addition Entities • Northwestern University •Xg Science • University of Akron • Planar morphology yields conductivity increases in base polymers of a factor of 20 • In case of a typical material with thickness of 30 nm, its prices should be in the range of 50$ per • Improved surface hardness/scratch Potential kg for large quantities order. resistance Cost • Generally, prices of MWCNT & SWCNT (as its more difficult to produce) haven’t really dropped • Improvement in flammability significantly in the last few years triggering a drive characteristics of materials in Graphene related R&D Frost & Sullivan believes strained economic situations provide an opportunity for stakeholders (material & product developers; R&D entities; VC’s) to use their resources (time & money) towards assessing the real market potential of Graphene as low production cost is one its biggest value proposition. © Frost & Sullivan 2010 9
  10. 10. Nanomaterials penetration – Transparent conductive film case study One of the most popular on the market transparent conductive films - ITO (Indium Tin Oxide) is continuously replaced by nanosolutions • • ITO has dominated the market of electronic goods, but ITO has dominated the market of electronic goods, but end users expected better electronic performance and end users expected better electronic performance and lower costs lower costs • Idea was born to disperse the conductive carbon • Idea was born to disperse the conductive carbon nanotubes in polymers in order to provide transparent nanotubes in polymers in order to provide transparent and conductive coatings and foils. Initially, the idea was and conductive coatings and foils. Initially, the idea was ITO has dominated criticized mostly by the whole market. criticized mostly by the whole market. market of transparent conductive films for electronic • • Now, we have two key players offering conductive films Now, we have two key players offering conductive films equipment. However, made of CNTs. Even despite the fact that ITO becomes made of CNTs. Even despite the fact that ITO becomes its lack of flexibility, now cheaper, mostly due to the falling prices of Indium, now cheaper, mostly due to the falling prices of Indium, expensive the CNTs conductive foils and conductive polymers will the CNTs conductive foils and conductive polymers will grab more market share in near future. grab more market share in near future. processing and fragility stimulated development of other solutions. © Frost & Sullivan 2010 10
  11. 11. Flexible Electronics Market Potential Technology Global Printed Electronics Market 6 45,00% 40,00% 5 35,00% Growth rate [%] 4 30,00% Revenues [$ bn] 25,00% 3 Revenues 20,00% 2 Growth Rate 15,00% 10,00% 1 5,00% 0 0,00% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 year Potential Markets with connected needs Medical Devices Consumer Electronics Military Supply Chain Food Packaging Current and developed solutions © Frost & Sullivan 2010 11
  12. 12. CIGS (copper indium gallium selenide) solar cells are one of the PV solutions on technology roadmap CIGS is the most efficient 2nd generation solar cells (Eff = 19.9%) 2nd generation solar cells CIGS possess the Silicon best solar cells position to conquer PV 3rd and 4th market generation solar cells • • Traditional silicon solar Traditional silicon solar cells were found to be • There are few types of cells were found to be • There are few types of relatively expensive due relatively expensive due currently developed solar • Huge successes of CdTe solar cells currently developed solar • Huge successes of CdTe solar cells to the high silicon prices cells technology come with some materials to the high silicon prices cells technology come with some materials (impacted by the (impacted by the • • The most popular silicon problems (price, alleged toxicity) The most popular silicon problems (price, alleged toxicity) demand of electronic demand of electronic counterparts are now CdTe • • Current development of CIGS solar cells counterparts are now CdTe Current development of CIGS solar cells industry) industry) solar cells and CIGS. promise their market success. solar cells and CIGS. promise their market success. © Frost & Sullivan 2010 12
  13. 13. Key Insight: Solar accounted for 29% (119 deals in 2008) of the overall number of VC and Private Equity CIGS Solar investments in the Renewable Energy Sector There is expected to be a drop of 45% in the module price leading to massive deployments and growth opportunities for stakeholders involved © Frost & Sullivan 2010 13
  14. 14. Advanced Batteries and Energy Storage Micro UAV Solider Human Energy Electric Vehicle Modernization Harvesting Fuel Cell © Frost & Sullivan 2010 14
  15. 15. Wasted heat reutilization with Thermoelectrics • • American Department of Energy initiated program American Department of Energy initiated program of fuel consumption reduction in cars by of fuel consumption reduction in cars by application of thermoelectrics. The aim is to application of thermoelectrics. The aim is to reduce the fuel usage by 10% harvesting the heat reduce the fuel usage by 10% harvesting the heat of the exhaust gases and transform them into of the exhaust gases and transform them into electricity with thermoelectrics. electricity with thermoelectrics. • • 44 strong research teams have undertaken this strong research teams have undertaken this challenge. challenge. • • Current proof of concept is BMW Series 55 , Model Current proof of concept is BMW Series , Model Year 2010, 3.0 Liter Gasoline Engine with Year 2010, 3.0 Liter Gasoline Engine with Thermoelectric Generator with aa fuel consumption Thermoelectric Generator with fuel consumption reduction 5%. reduction 5%. 5% ? less ? fuel © Frost & Sullivan 2010 15
  16. 16. Key Insight: Within the various types of smart materials, Smart Materials Piezoelectric materials are expected to one of the fastest growth areas with a major size of the overall market Smart materials sense changes in the environment around them and respond in a predictable manner Hold immense business potential across a wide range of industries Using a smart material instead of conventional mechanisms to sense and respond, can simplify devices, reducing weight and the chances of failure Description Developed by Developed a family of materials, which possesses the Autonomic Materials Beckman Institute - UIAC, Illinois, USA ability to heal themselves without any external activity Developed a transparent plastic that, if fractured, will Exotic Materials Institute - UCLA, Los Self-Repairing Plastic mend itself when heated. This can be used to create self- Angeles, USA repairing products Products Developed materials that could respond to external stimuli such as temperature, pH, light, electric field, chemicals, Conglomeration of various researchers Smart Polymers for and ionic strength by itself worldwide Biomedical Applications Chemical systems of Janus particles (systems) – structures of functional Unilever (Langmuir 2003), L’Oreal, controlled behavior properties that vary across material’s surface University of Illinois © Frost & Sullivan 2010 16
  17. 17. Green IT The goals of green IT include the usage of novel The goals of green IT include the usage of novel technological solutions to reduce the carbon footprint technological solutions to reduce the carbon footprint and decrease green house gas emissions resulting and decrease green house gas emissions resulting from the IT operations of companies, as well as to from the IT operations of companies, as well as to reduce energy consumption and therefore limit the reduce energy consumption and therefore limit the burning up of fossil fuels. burning up of fossil fuels. Green IT predominantly refers to greener ways of Green IT predominantly refers to greener ways of exploiting computing power and utilizing data storage, exploiting computing power and utilizing data storage, as well reducing energy consumption involved in as well reducing energy consumption involved in running large IT operations. running large IT operations. Green computing has undergone a significant Green computing has undergone a significant makeover, from being aa do-good concept for makeover, from being do-good concept for showcasing the company’s environmental showcasing the company’s environmental consciousness and for demonstrating better corporate consciousness and for demonstrating better corporate social responsibility (CSR), to actually being aa must-do social responsibility (CSR), to actually being must-do strategy. Rising energy costs and economic hardships strategy. Rising energy costs and economic hardships have brought aa stronger spotlight on green IT solutions, have brought stronger spotlight on green IT solutions, more for the cost benefits that itit offers than for the more for the cost benefits that offers than for the environmental benefits itit implies. environmental benefits implies. Source: Frost Frost & Sullivan 2010 © & Sullivan 17
  18. 18. IC systems evolution toward 3D packaging System-In- Package (SiP) 3D Integration System-On- Approaches Chip (SoC) Illustrations 3D Integrated Circuit (IC) Critical markers for sector growth The Road Ahead © Frost & Sullivan 2010 18
  19. 19. Key Insight: Globally, on-going programs in related Autonomous Systems areas is currently worth $11 billion and it is expected to be one of the highest area of spending Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) and autonomous land vehicles (ALV) are the key entities of focus for autonomous system development Autonomous land vehicle (ALV) is a complex wheeled or tracked robotic structure, which is typically equipped with sophisticated sensors including stereo cameras, laser scanners or/and radars to detect terrain and obstacles Most of the developments and technology breakthroughs in this space have their origin in military projects and applications However, the civilian market demand is also picking up with applications like civil services, first responders, homeland security etc. 2010 2020 2030 2040 © Frost & Sullivan 2010 19
  20. 20. Key Insight: Potential market size by 2014 (of White Biotech chemicals relying on White Biotech capabilities) is expected to be > $72 billion Considered by many as a “hidden solution” Involves use of micro-organisms and biological catalysts (like enzymes) to the production of bio-based chemicals, materials and fuels Expected to outstrip ‘Green’ and ‘Red’ Biotech as market demand picks up in the coming years Substantial increase in the investment of industrial biotech is expected to pay dividends for sustainable energy and materials production Related Global Developments Bioethanol Developed a new bacterial strain capable of degrading straw, agricultural Production plant waste and so on by converting them into renewable energy fuels Cleaning Developed a method for using rapeseed for detoxifying contaminated Contaminated land by combining the plant, which is grown for biofuel, with heavy metal Soil tolerant bacteria Hydrogen and Employed DNA insertional mutagenesis and high-throughput screening Hydrocarbon approaches to identify genes that play a vital role in enabling microalgae Production to produce biofuels © Frost & Sullivan 2010 20
  21. 21. White Biotech case studies Vitamin B2 production Cephalexin (antibiotic) • • Traditional chemical synthesis includes 88 step of Traditional chemical synthesis includes step of •• Traditional bio-chemical synthesis 10 steps Traditional bio-chemical synthesis 10 steps chemical synthesis •• DSM combination of enzymatic processes and chemical synthesis DSM combination of enzymatic processes and • • Biotechnological process of BASF require 11 fermentation allowed for materials and energy saving Biotechnological process of BASF require fermentation allowed for materials and energy saving fermentation step by 65%! with variable cost reduction by 50%. fermentation step by 65%! with variable cost reduction by 50%. Bio – based polymers Scouring of textiles • • NatureWorsks from CargillDow is used in clothing, NatureWorsks from CargillDow is used in clothing, • • Traditional approach is based on material treatment Traditional approach is based on material treatment packaging and electronic. ItIt is not produced from oil or packaging and electronic. is not produced from oil or with hot alkaline solution with hot alkaline solution natural gas but sugar or corn. Benefits are lower • Enzymatic approach of Novozymes allowed for natural gas but sugar or corn. Benefits are lower • Enzymatic approach of Novozymes allowed for demand for fossils (from 25 to 55%), which is still decrease environmental impact of this process and demand for fossils (from 25 to 55%), which is still decrease environmental impact of this process and needed,but company promise to replace them in future. needed,but company promise to replace them in future. reduce energy consumption by 25% and cost by 20%. reduce energy consumption by 25% and cost by 20%. Environmental impact Biotech Biotech offers highly promising alternative to the traditional chemical synthesis. Traditional Cost © Frost & Sullivan 2010 21
  22. 22. Lasers Global Market in 2008 : $6.22 Billion Market in 2014 : $9.10 Billion CAGR (2008 -2014) : 8.2% Types of Lasers Solid State Fibre T:Sapphire Diode CO2 Helium Neon North America - Europe - Share 2008 : ~36% Share, 2008 : ~34% Asia - Share 2014 : ~33% Share, 2008 : ~29% Share, 2014 : ~31% Share, 2014 : ~35% Growth Attributes • CO2 lasers are expected to grow due to demand for high power lasers in industrial applications (cutting and welding) • YAG lasers also offer significant opportunity in industrial laser applications and medical lasers. • High power solid state lasers are also increasingly used in military applications • Fibre lasers are expected to increase their market share mainly due to the demand from industrial materials processing applications using low power • Excimer lasers are expected to offer opportunity in semiconductor and medical applications Long Term Key Opportunities in Defense Sector – “Directed Energy Weapons” © Frost & Sullivan 2010 22
  23. 23. Impact Mapping of Top Ten Technologies on CEE Industry Mature Nanotechnology Lasers White Biotech CIGS Energy Storage Green IT Importance Flexible Electronics 3d Packaging for CEE Autonomous Systems Smart Materials Undeveloped Source: Frost & Sullivan. © Frost & Sullivan 2010 23
  24. 24. CEE attractiveness for R&D activities Key reasons for investing in R&D in CEE CEE Region holds CEE Region holds • Increasing strength of local economies extensive potential for extensive potential for R&D activities across R&D activities across • Human Capital various technologies various technologies and industries. Its and industries. Its • Accessibility of high level specialists undeniable undeniable • Strong institutional support capabilities have capabilities have already convinced already convinced • Increasing domestic markets various industrial various industrial players to localize players to localize • EU Structural Funds their strategic R&D their strategic R&D divisions in this part of divisions in this part of • Special Economic Zones Europe. Europe. © Frost & Sullivan 2010 24
  25. 25. Foreign investments in R&D centers in Poland Intel, Compuware, Intel, Compuware, GE, Avio, Samsung GE, Avio, Samsung Humax, Lucent Humax, Lucent Electronic, SAS Institutes, Electronic, SAS Institutes, Technologies, Alstom,... Technologies, Alstom,... TopGan, Avon, Reckitt TopGan, Avon, Reckitt Many companies Many companies Benckiser, Ammono, Benckiser, Ammono, Canon, 3M,Basell,… Canon, 3M,Basell,… understood the understood the huge potential of huge potential of Poland as area for Poland as area for R&D activities. R&D activities. ABB, Google, Pliva, ABB, Google, Pliva, Delphi, IBM, Apriso, Delphi, IBM, Apriso, Motorola, Sabre, Pratt & Motorola, Sabre, Pratt & Whitney,... Whitney,... Siemens, Delphi, Siemens, Delphi, Glaxo SmithKline, Glaxo SmithKline, Alstom, Volvo, Remy Alstom, Volvo, Remy Telecordia, Microsoft,... Telecordia, Microsoft,... Int., Opera Software,... Int., Opera Software,... Source: Frost & Sullivan, PAIZ Source: Frost & Sullivan, PAIZ © Frost & Sullivan 2010 25
  26. 26. Few final remarks and conclusions Players from CEE markets are in good technical position to undertake R&D programs 1 1 Players from CEE markets are in good technical position to undertake R&D programs related to Top Ten Technologies related to Top Ten Technologies Nanotechnology, White Biotech, Lasers, Energy Storage Systems,… are the most probable 2 2 Nanotechnology, White Biotech, Lasers, Energy Storage Systems,… are the most probable areas for CEE players activity. However, developments in other sectors are also possible. areas for CEE players activity. However, developments in other sectors are also possible. Institutional support (like FP7) will speed up technologies development and stimulate 3 3 Institutional support (like FP7) will speed up technologies development and stimulate technology transfer from research institutions to industry. technology transfer from research institutions to industry. The European policy toward “green” and sustainable solutions stimulates the development 4 4 The European policy toward “green” and sustainable solutions stimulates the development and market growth of technologies meeting their criteria. and market growth of technologies meeting their criteria. Investments in R&D in CEE region are continuously growing and there are local companies 5 5 Investments in R&D in CEE region are continuously growing and there are local companies that become key players in their areas of expertise. that become key players in their areas of expertise. © Frost & Sullivan 2010 26
  27. 27. Dr in . Krzysztof Grzybowski Industry Analyst - Team Leader, TI Frost & Sullivan DID +48 22 390 4140 Mobile +48 783391860 Fax +48 22 390 4160 Email:krzysztof@frost.com Thank You © Frost & Sullivan 2010 27
  1. A particular slide catching your eye?

    Clipping is a handy way to collect important slides you want to go back to later.

×