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  • 1. Use Of NPP Data In The Joint Center For Satellite Data Assimilation Lars Peter Riishojgaard, JCSDA Director IGARSS 2011 July 25 2011
  • 2. Overview
    • Introduction to JCSDA
    • Weather prediction and satellite data
      • Motivation for R2O, NPP
    • Preparation for new sensors
    • NPP-related activities
    • Summary
    IGARSS 2011 July 25 2011
  • 3. JCSDA History IGARSS 2011 July 25 2011
  • 4. Mission: … to accelerate and improve the quantitative use of research and operational satellite data in weather, ocean, climate and environmental analysis and prediction models. Vision: An interagency partnership working to become a world leader in applying satellite data and research to operational goals in environmental analysis and prediction JCSDA Partners, Vision, Mission IGARSS 2011 July 25 2011 NASA/Earth Science Division US Navy/Oceanographer and Navigator of the Navy and NRL NOAA/NESDIS NOAA/NWS NOAA/OAR US Air Force/Director of Weather
  • 5. JCSDA Science Priorities
    • Radiative Transfer Modeling (CRTM)
    • Preparation for assimilation of data from new instruments
    • Clouds and precipitation
    • Assimilation of land surface observations
    • Assimilation of ocean surface observations
    • Atmospheric composition; chemistry and aerosol
    IGARSS 2011 Driving the activities of the Joint Center since 2001, approved by the Science Steering Committee Overarching goal: Help the operational services improve the quality of their prediction products via improved and accelerated use of satellite data and related research July 25 2011
  • 6. Satellite data now account for most of the skill Impact of GOS components on 24-h ECMWF Global Forecast skill (courtesy of Erik Andersson, ECMWF)
  • 7. 500 hPa geopotential height anomaly correction from 01/09/2008-02/22/2008 1000 hPa geopotential height anomaly correction from 01/09/2008-02/22/2008
  • 8. Weather Prediction and the US Economy; A Macroscopic View
    • Department of Commerce: “20% of overall US economy is weather sensitive”: ~$3 trillion/year
      • Impact to air and surface transportation, agriculture, construction, energy production and distribution, etc.
    • Assume that half of this is “forecast sensitive” : $1.5 trillion/year
    • Assume that the potential savings due to weather forecasting amount to 5% of the “forecast sensitive total”: ~$75B/year
    IGARSS 2011 July 25 2011
  • 9. … a Macroscopic View … (II)
    • Define now
      • “ No forecast information” = 0 h useful forecast range
      • “ Perfect forecast” = 336 h useful forecast forecast range (two weeks traditonally used as limit of predictability)
    • Next, assume that the potential savings up to the maximum of $75B are distributed linearly over the achieved forecast range for the global NWP system:
      • $75B/336h = $223M/hr
    • This implies that the value to the United States economy of weather observations, dissemination, forecast products and services is >200M per hour of forecast range per year !
    IGARSS 2011 July 25 2011
  • 10. NPP-related efforts in the Joint Center July 25 2011 IGARSS 2011
  • 11. Improved use of NPP precursor data; IR
    • AIRS/IASI water vapor channel improvement
    • Use of cloudy radiances
    • Surface emissivity (land)
    • Assimilation methodology studies
    • Additional channels
    July 25 2011 IGARSS 2011
  • 12. Forecast impact of assimilation of AIRS cloud-cleared radiances July 25 2011 IGARSS 2011
  • 13. Improved use of NPP precursor data; Microwave
    • Ongoing CRTM improvements
    • Surface emissivity, especially over snow, ice,…
      • Emissivity models
      • Databases
    • Measurements affected by precipitation
    July 25 2011 IGARSS 2011
  • 14. July 25 2011 IGARSS 2011 Example of MW emissivity study (courtesy of Fuzhong Weng, NESDIS/STAR)
  • 15. NPP Proxy Data
    • CrIS and ATMS proxy data generated by NESDIS on a routine basis (Barnet)
      • Based on GFS model output, SARTA radiative transfer model applied to model profiles
      • Streamed to JCSDA, ready for testing
    July 25 2011 IGARSS 2011
  • 16. CRTM status
    • CRTM ready for NPP sensors
      • CrIS
      • ATMS
      • VIIRS
    • CRTM v. 2.1 released earlier this year
      • Additional sensors
      • Computational efficiency
    July 25 2011 IGARSS 2011
  • 17. 500 hPa geopotential height anomaly correction from 01/09/2008-02/22/2008 1000 hPa geopotential height anomaly correction from 01/09/2008-02/22/2008
  • 18. Observing System Simulation Experiments for NPP
    • Level 1
      • Experiments with simulated (proxy) data from CrIS, ATMS along with existing data used in operations
      • Purpose here is to test data flow and data ingest rather than data impact
    • Level 2
      • Using the Joint OSSE system
      • All data simulated; purpose is to assess and optimize data impact
    July 25 2011 IGARSS 2011
  • 19. Post-launch activities
    • Passive monitoring
      • Observation minus forecast residuals monitored
      • This effectively validates NPP data against the rest of the Global Observing System
    • Active assimilation, off-line mode, impact assessment
    • Operational assimilation
    July 25 2011 IGARSS 2011
  • 20. Summary
    • The economic impact of Numerical Weather Prediction and related activities are estimated to range in the tens of $B/year for the US alone
    • Satellite data are critical for NWP
    • Upcoming launch of NPP marks the entry of a new generation of operational meteorological satellites for the US
    • The Joint Center is heavily involved in preparing US operational users to benefit from these new data as soon as possible after launch
    IGARSS 2011 July 25 2011