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5 IGARSS_Riishojgaard July 25 2011_rev2.ppt
5 IGARSS_Riishojgaard July 25 2011_rev2.ppt
5 IGARSS_Riishojgaard July 25 2011_rev2.ppt
5 IGARSS_Riishojgaard July 25 2011_rev2.ppt
5 IGARSS_Riishojgaard July 25 2011_rev2.ppt
5 IGARSS_Riishojgaard July 25 2011_rev2.ppt
5 IGARSS_Riishojgaard July 25 2011_rev2.ppt
5 IGARSS_Riishojgaard July 25 2011_rev2.ppt
5 IGARSS_Riishojgaard July 25 2011_rev2.ppt
5 IGARSS_Riishojgaard July 25 2011_rev2.ppt
5 IGARSS_Riishojgaard July 25 2011_rev2.ppt
5 IGARSS_Riishojgaard July 25 2011_rev2.ppt
5 IGARSS_Riishojgaard July 25 2011_rev2.ppt
5 IGARSS_Riishojgaard July 25 2011_rev2.ppt
5 IGARSS_Riishojgaard July 25 2011_rev2.ppt
5 IGARSS_Riishojgaard July 25 2011_rev2.ppt
5 IGARSS_Riishojgaard July 25 2011_rev2.ppt
5 IGARSS_Riishojgaard July 25 2011_rev2.ppt
5 IGARSS_Riishojgaard July 25 2011_rev2.ppt
5 IGARSS_Riishojgaard July 25 2011_rev2.ppt
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5 IGARSS_Riishojgaard July 25 2011_rev2.ppt

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  • 1. Use Of NPP Data In The Joint Center For Satellite Data Assimilation Lars Peter Riishojgaard, JCSDA Director IGARSS 2011 July 25 2011
  • 2. Overview <ul><li>Introduction to JCSDA </li></ul><ul><li>Weather prediction and satellite data </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Motivation for R2O, NPP </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Preparation for new sensors </li></ul><ul><li>NPP-related activities </li></ul><ul><li>Summary </li></ul>IGARSS 2011 July 25 2011
  • 3. JCSDA History IGARSS 2011 July 25 2011
  • 4. Mission: … to accelerate and improve the quantitative use of research and operational satellite data in weather, ocean, climate and environmental analysis and prediction models. Vision: An interagency partnership working to become a world leader in applying satellite data and research to operational goals in environmental analysis and prediction JCSDA Partners, Vision, Mission IGARSS 2011 July 25 2011 NASA/Earth Science Division US Navy/Oceanographer and Navigator of the Navy and NRL NOAA/NESDIS NOAA/NWS NOAA/OAR US Air Force/Director of Weather
  • 5. JCSDA Science Priorities <ul><li>Radiative Transfer Modeling (CRTM) </li></ul><ul><li>Preparation for assimilation of data from new instruments </li></ul><ul><li>Clouds and precipitation </li></ul><ul><li>Assimilation of land surface observations </li></ul><ul><li>Assimilation of ocean surface observations </li></ul><ul><li>Atmospheric composition; chemistry and aerosol </li></ul>IGARSS 2011 Driving the activities of the Joint Center since 2001, approved by the Science Steering Committee Overarching goal: Help the operational services improve the quality of their prediction products via improved and accelerated use of satellite data and related research July 25 2011
  • 6. Satellite data now account for most of the skill Impact of GOS components on 24-h ECMWF Global Forecast skill (courtesy of Erik Andersson, ECMWF)
  • 7. 500 hPa geopotential height anomaly correction from 01/09/2008-02/22/2008 1000 hPa geopotential height anomaly correction from 01/09/2008-02/22/2008
  • 8. Weather Prediction and the US Economy; A Macroscopic View <ul><li>Department of Commerce: “20% of overall US economy is weather sensitive”: ~$3 trillion/year </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Impact to air and surface transportation, agriculture, construction, energy production and distribution, etc. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Assume that half of this is “forecast sensitive” : $1.5 trillion/year </li></ul><ul><li>Assume that the potential savings due to weather forecasting amount to 5% of the “forecast sensitive total”: ~$75B/year </li></ul>IGARSS 2011 July 25 2011
  • 9. … a Macroscopic View … (II) <ul><li>Define now </li></ul><ul><ul><li>“ No forecast information” = 0 h useful forecast range </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>“ Perfect forecast” = 336 h useful forecast forecast range (two weeks traditonally used as limit of predictability) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Next, assume that the potential savings up to the maximum of $75B are distributed linearly over the achieved forecast range for the global NWP system: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>$75B/336h = $223M/hr </li></ul></ul><ul><li>This implies that the value to the United States economy of weather observations, dissemination, forecast products and services is >200M per hour of forecast range per year ! </li></ul>IGARSS 2011 July 25 2011
  • 10. NPP-related efforts in the Joint Center July 25 2011 IGARSS 2011
  • 11. Improved use of NPP precursor data; IR <ul><li>AIRS/IASI water vapor channel improvement </li></ul><ul><li>Use of cloudy radiances </li></ul><ul><li>Surface emissivity (land) </li></ul><ul><li>Assimilation methodology studies </li></ul><ul><li>Additional channels </li></ul>July 25 2011 IGARSS 2011
  • 12. Forecast impact of assimilation of AIRS cloud-cleared radiances July 25 2011 IGARSS 2011
  • 13. Improved use of NPP precursor data; Microwave <ul><li>Ongoing CRTM improvements </li></ul><ul><li>Surface emissivity, especially over snow, ice,… </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Emissivity models </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Databases </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Measurements affected by precipitation </li></ul>July 25 2011 IGARSS 2011
  • 14. July 25 2011 IGARSS 2011 Example of MW emissivity study (courtesy of Fuzhong Weng, NESDIS/STAR)
  • 15. NPP Proxy Data <ul><li>CrIS and ATMS proxy data generated by NESDIS on a routine basis (Barnet) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Based on GFS model output, SARTA radiative transfer model applied to model profiles </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Streamed to JCSDA, ready for testing </li></ul></ul>July 25 2011 IGARSS 2011
  • 16. CRTM status <ul><li>CRTM ready for NPP sensors </li></ul><ul><ul><li>CrIS </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>ATMS </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>VIIRS </li></ul></ul><ul><li>CRTM v. 2.1 released earlier this year </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Additional sensors </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Computational efficiency </li></ul></ul>July 25 2011 IGARSS 2011
  • 17. 500 hPa geopotential height anomaly correction from 01/09/2008-02/22/2008 1000 hPa geopotential height anomaly correction from 01/09/2008-02/22/2008
  • 18. Observing System Simulation Experiments for NPP <ul><li>Level 1 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Experiments with simulated (proxy) data from CrIS, ATMS along with existing data used in operations </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Purpose here is to test data flow and data ingest rather than data impact </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Level 2 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Using the Joint OSSE system </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>All data simulated; purpose is to assess and optimize data impact </li></ul></ul>July 25 2011 IGARSS 2011
  • 19. Post-launch activities <ul><li>Passive monitoring </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Observation minus forecast residuals monitored </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>This effectively validates NPP data against the rest of the Global Observing System </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Active assimilation, off-line mode, impact assessment </li></ul><ul><li>Operational assimilation </li></ul>July 25 2011 IGARSS 2011
  • 20. Summary <ul><li>The economic impact of Numerical Weather Prediction and related activities are estimated to range in the tens of $B/year for the US alone </li></ul><ul><li>Satellite data are critical for NWP </li></ul><ul><li>Upcoming launch of NPP marks the entry of a new generation of operational meteorological satellites for the US </li></ul><ul><li>The Joint Center is heavily involved in preparing US operational users to benefit from these new data as soon as possible after launch </li></ul>IGARSS 2011 July 25 2011

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