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5 IGARSS_Riishojgaard July 25 2011_rev2.ppt
 

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    5 IGARSS_Riishojgaard July 25 2011_rev2.ppt 5 IGARSS_Riishojgaard July 25 2011_rev2.ppt Presentation Transcript

    • Use Of NPP Data In The Joint Center For Satellite Data Assimilation Lars Peter Riishojgaard, JCSDA Director IGARSS 2011 July 25 2011
    • Overview
      • Introduction to JCSDA
      • Weather prediction and satellite data
        • Motivation for R2O, NPP
      • Preparation for new sensors
      • NPP-related activities
      • Summary
      IGARSS 2011 July 25 2011
    • JCSDA History IGARSS 2011 July 25 2011
    • Mission: … to accelerate and improve the quantitative use of research and operational satellite data in weather, ocean, climate and environmental analysis and prediction models. Vision: An interagency partnership working to become a world leader in applying satellite data and research to operational goals in environmental analysis and prediction JCSDA Partners, Vision, Mission IGARSS 2011 July 25 2011 NASA/Earth Science Division US Navy/Oceanographer and Navigator of the Navy and NRL NOAA/NESDIS NOAA/NWS NOAA/OAR US Air Force/Director of Weather
    • JCSDA Science Priorities
      • Radiative Transfer Modeling (CRTM)
      • Preparation for assimilation of data from new instruments
      • Clouds and precipitation
      • Assimilation of land surface observations
      • Assimilation of ocean surface observations
      • Atmospheric composition; chemistry and aerosol
      IGARSS 2011 Driving the activities of the Joint Center since 2001, approved by the Science Steering Committee Overarching goal: Help the operational services improve the quality of their prediction products via improved and accelerated use of satellite data and related research July 25 2011
    • Satellite data now account for most of the skill Impact of GOS components on 24-h ECMWF Global Forecast skill (courtesy of Erik Andersson, ECMWF)
    • 500 hPa geopotential height anomaly correction from 01/09/2008-02/22/2008 1000 hPa geopotential height anomaly correction from 01/09/2008-02/22/2008
    • Weather Prediction and the US Economy; A Macroscopic View
      • Department of Commerce: “20% of overall US economy is weather sensitive”: ~$3 trillion/year
        • Impact to air and surface transportation, agriculture, construction, energy production and distribution, etc.
      • Assume that half of this is “forecast sensitive” : $1.5 trillion/year
      • Assume that the potential savings due to weather forecasting amount to 5% of the “forecast sensitive total”: ~$75B/year
      IGARSS 2011 July 25 2011
    • … a Macroscopic View … (II)
      • Define now
        • “ No forecast information” = 0 h useful forecast range
        • “ Perfect forecast” = 336 h useful forecast forecast range (two weeks traditonally used as limit of predictability)
      • Next, assume that the potential savings up to the maximum of $75B are distributed linearly over the achieved forecast range for the global NWP system:
        • $75B/336h = $223M/hr
      • This implies that the value to the United States economy of weather observations, dissemination, forecast products and services is >200M per hour of forecast range per year !
      IGARSS 2011 July 25 2011
    • NPP-related efforts in the Joint Center July 25 2011 IGARSS 2011
    • Improved use of NPP precursor data; IR
      • AIRS/IASI water vapor channel improvement
      • Use of cloudy radiances
      • Surface emissivity (land)
      • Assimilation methodology studies
      • Additional channels
      July 25 2011 IGARSS 2011
    • Forecast impact of assimilation of AIRS cloud-cleared radiances July 25 2011 IGARSS 2011
    • Improved use of NPP precursor data; Microwave
      • Ongoing CRTM improvements
      • Surface emissivity, especially over snow, ice,…
        • Emissivity models
        • Databases
      • Measurements affected by precipitation
      July 25 2011 IGARSS 2011
    • July 25 2011 IGARSS 2011 Example of MW emissivity study (courtesy of Fuzhong Weng, NESDIS/STAR)
    • NPP Proxy Data
      • CrIS and ATMS proxy data generated by NESDIS on a routine basis (Barnet)
        • Based on GFS model output, SARTA radiative transfer model applied to model profiles
        • Streamed to JCSDA, ready for testing
      July 25 2011 IGARSS 2011
    • CRTM status
      • CRTM ready for NPP sensors
        • CrIS
        • ATMS
        • VIIRS
      • CRTM v. 2.1 released earlier this year
        • Additional sensors
        • Computational efficiency
      July 25 2011 IGARSS 2011
    • 500 hPa geopotential height anomaly correction from 01/09/2008-02/22/2008 1000 hPa geopotential height anomaly correction from 01/09/2008-02/22/2008
    • Observing System Simulation Experiments for NPP
      • Level 1
        • Experiments with simulated (proxy) data from CrIS, ATMS along with existing data used in operations
        • Purpose here is to test data flow and data ingest rather than data impact
      • Level 2
        • Using the Joint OSSE system
        • All data simulated; purpose is to assess and optimize data impact
      July 25 2011 IGARSS 2011
    • Post-launch activities
      • Passive monitoring
        • Observation minus forecast residuals monitored
        • This effectively validates NPP data against the rest of the Global Observing System
      • Active assimilation, off-line mode, impact assessment
      • Operational assimilation
      July 25 2011 IGARSS 2011
    • Summary
      • The economic impact of Numerical Weather Prediction and related activities are estimated to range in the tens of $B/year for the US alone
      • Satellite data are critical for NWP
      • Upcoming launch of NPP marks the entry of a new generation of operational meteorological satellites for the US
      • The Joint Center is heavily involved in preparing US operational users to benefit from these new data as soon as possible after launch
      IGARSS 2011 July 25 2011