Mobile Internet
is
Bigger
than most
Think it is.
Jason Grigsby • SAO Dec 2009
@grigs on Twitter • jason@cloudfour.com
cloudfour.com • mobileportand.com

Mobile is the Technology that Cried Wolf.
Flickr photo by CaptPiper: http://www.flickr.com/photos/piper/197153406/

Mobile is the Technology that Cried Wolf.
(for 15 years)
Flickr photo by CaptPiper: http://www.flickr.com/photos/piper/197153406/

“The Mother of
all Markets.”
Dr. Eli Harai, San Disk
CEO, 2008
John Sculley, Apple
CEO, 1992
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9E0CE5D9143AF93AA25754C0A964958260

The Hope for Mobile
What is the
likelihood of
exponential
growth for the
Internet on Mobile
Devices?

!"#$%&'()*&+)&*',-*./0&1'2&13*".'()*&+)&*'45".*$")
$67")&'8'$9"-07':1&+1';'<='4,>':1&+1'?'@-/+*&+1'4A*&+'>/-)07
3<7=4/1>13?=+571G0H1@??1A=5=B=13CB=A/1G0H1DE61G0H1@/.05,F/1I0/-0
J3-0.1#"1(+,-./-012345/16,+457
M&)::
'" ,&-./"()*%"+*"% !"#$%&'()*%"+*"%
3<7=4/1>13?=+57 @/.05,F/K
&" 6,+457/A1'L") 6,+457/A1!#L*%
%"
2+805-38/-019::;
M#&:: ,&-./"()*%"+*"%
$" @??1A=5=B=13CB=A/
6,+457/A1'L**
#"
M!!::
!"#$%&'()*%"+*"%
!"
DE6K
M):: G1#H"16,+457/A1*L*%
(! ($ (& () (* (!! (!$ (!& (!) (!*
(+,-./-012345/16,+457
3<7=4/1>13?=+57 @??1A=5=B=13CB=A/ DE6 @/.05,F/
!"#$%&'()*&+,-+./0-$/+&12#2&3"#&242052-5$&-$6"/$&789%:;<&!$#+.2=$&,+$/+&50>0#$1&#"&?@&"35AB&C"/D23&@#235$A&E$+$2/.F&$+#0>2#$+& 26
G9:CC&3$#-""H+&F24$&+F0==$1&03&60/+#&$0DF#&I,2/#$/+&+03.$&52,3.F JKLMLNOB&@",/.$%&7">=23A&E$="/#+&P&C"/D23&@#235$A&E$+$2/.FB
Source: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html

Opera Mini Traffic Increases
Usage up 157% year-over-year
http://www.opera.com/media/smw/

4.0
Billion
Mobile phone for
half the planet.
Flickr photo by Pingnews: http://www.flickr.com/photos/pingnews/370061022/

4 Billion in Perspective
4
4B
3
2
1.2B 1.3B 1.4B 1.5B
1.2B
0.85B 0.95B
1
Cars
PCs
Landlines
Email 0
Internet
TVs
Credit Cards
Mobile
Source: http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2007/01/putting_27_bill.html
http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2008/01/when-there-is-a.html
http://www.communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2008/12/trillion-with-a.html

2007 SMS Revenue: 100 billion
Flickr photo by Vlastula: http://www.flickr.com/photos/vlastula/450642954/

2007 SMS Revenue: 100 billion
•Box Office
•DVD Sales & Rentals
Combined •Music Industry
•Video Games
Flickr photo by Vlastula: http://www.flickr.com/photos/vlastula/450642954/

!"#$%&'()*+,-$%./0"$%1232/*"3+4*+/4
5"6)/"$742-"$83+/*+&,$9+2$:"**"3$;3&/"44+,-$;&#"3$<$='(3&>"6$74"3$=,*"3?2/"$<$
@'200"3$8&3'$82/*&3$<$A&#"3$;3+/"4$<$BC(2,6"6$@"3>+/"4$D$EFC$G&3"$H">+/"4
!%+*1)R5#1
-%&'()"#C1J+%U)R1.+">*+/1V>*+1T"&*K1789:1W =:=:I
X(/)1,R%#*/
7K:::K:::
!%3"4*1 D&5+)'R%#*
2#)*+#*) S"#N4*
7::K::: T534*)
.*>"$*/1?1@/*+/1A!!1"#1B%C1D$54*E
.*/0)%'1
" %#
!,P
) 2#)*+#*)
7:K:::
C+5 -*441'R%#*1?1
*
#)
,.L
12
"#C
-5+1I4*$)+%#"$/1
7:::
/ J,DK1LGDK1L?M
*5 ,- 7:GF1
2# $+ @#")/HHH !%3"4*1
7:: M"N*%
!"#"$%&'()*+ 7GF1@#")/1?1 O%&*1
@/*+/ I#)*+)5"#&*#)
7::!!F1
7: J5&*/
@#")/
!5"#6+5&* Q"+*4*//1O%&*1
7:!!F1@#")/ L''4"5#$*/
7
7!!F1@#")/
789: 78;: 78<: 788: =::: =:7: =:=:
!"#$%&'(&)*+#,--$.&/,+$&0$,12$.&34455&)*&36678&1$--92"*$&:&;*#$0*$#&<+$0+&0$,12$.&3=&)*&>44>&:&>44?&0$+9$1#)@$-AB
25
C"<01$%&;DE8&5,0F&G)9,1)+8&5"0H,*&C#,*-$A&I$+$,012J
Source: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html

!"#$%&'(")*+,-./0(*%-12/"%-3'&)%-('-40/56-7&6&,-8/6-9/(#% :-
4;%$&)%-<%**-12/"%-:-=>?-9/(#%@(12/"% :-AB?-9/(#%
G(#)H&E5(D%&J=%(KL"M;N&,&"O&P#8%&1Q%;<&";&-($?&B$<#C#<H
BC%=(D%&E1&'%))&F?";%&E5%= #F?";% E5%=
0+&/#;4<%5&F%=&G(H I+&/#;4<%5&F%=&G(H
:;<%=;%<&. 9, ><?%=&. 9,
7(8%5&. 9, ><?%=&. 9,
/45#$&. 6, :;<%=;%<
-./(#)&. 0, A,
7(8%5
@,
1/1&. 23, /45#$ !"#$%&'())
!"#$%&'()) 2+, 03,
*+,
-./(#)
26,
1/1
20,
!"#$%&'()*&$+#,-.#$+&./$0.1$&/",2$&2.33&#,-$&4$0&5.6&,+&78&-,9:#$+;&.++:-,91&8<=&">&#"#.3&#,-$&+4$9#&,+&"9&/",2$&2.33;&4$0&
,?:443,;&#"#.3&./$0.1$&#,-$&+4$9#&"9&2$33&4@"9$&,+&.440"AB&C<&-,9:#$+&4$0&5.6B&,D@"9$ #,-$&+4$9#&4$0&5.6&,+&":0&$+#,-.#$+B&
?":02$%&,?:443, '"9+:-$0(0.E +:0/$6;&F<G<H;&I"01.9&?#.93$6&J$+$.02@B 59
Source: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html

56 million
http://blog.wired.com/gadgets/2009/02/shoot-is-iphone.html#c148364123
devices
115,014
http://www.newsweek.com/id/174266
apps
> 2 billion
http://businessweek.com/@@0M43kIYQYKPISw0A/technology/content/sep2008/tc20080930_257832.htm downloads

Gold Rush was On

Source: http://gizmodo.com/5199933/giz-explains-all-the-smartphone-mobile-app-stores

Ringtone Apps
http://twitter.com/justin/status/1210786170
http://furbo.org/2008/12/09/ring-tone-apps/
http://furbo.org/2009/02/16/raising-prices/

Ringtone Apps
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
0 .99 1.99 2.99 3.99 4.99 5.99 6.99 7.99 8.99 9.99 10.99 11.99 12.99 13.99 14.99 15.99+
http://148apps.biz/app-store-metrics/?mpage=appprice

Brutally Honest iPhone App Sales:
$32k Spent vs. $535 Revenue
Dapple
http://www.streamingcolour.com/blog/2009/03/09/the-numbers-post-aka-brutal-honesty/

Throwaway Apps
http://www.pinchmedia.com/appstore-secrets/

Throwaway Apps
http://www.pinchmedia.com/appstore-secrets/

Pinch Media’s Conclusions
•Users stop using the average applications quickly.
•Long-term audiences are generally 1% of total
downloads
•Paid apps retain users longer, but still steep drop
off.
•Difficult to make enough money from a free
application based on advertising revenue
http://www.pinchmedia.com/appstore-secrets/

Success Determined by Top Lists & Features
http://appcubby.com/blog/files/financial_realities.html

115,000 Apps
&
Findability?
http://148apps.com/10000

More Open ≠ No Gatekeeper
96%
Approved
(what about that 4%?)

Some Rejected Applications
• Obama Trampoline
• MyShoe
• I Am Poor
• The South Park App
• Pull My Finger
• iBoobs
• Slasher
• Murderdome
• Podcaster
• Freedom Time
• Google Voice
• iSinglePayer
"Even though my personal political leanings are
Democratic, I think this app will be offensive to roughly
half our customers. What's the point?" — Steve Jobs
http://www.pcworld.com/article/159887-2/rejected_10_iphone_apps_that_didnt_make_apples_app_store.html

http://www.pcworld.com/article/159887-2/rejected_10_iphone_apps_that_didnt_make_apples_app_store.html

http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/04/30/the-hundred-million-dollar-mobile-app-question/

iPhone Only Part of World Wide Market
Symbian RIM iPhone Microsoft Android Others
20000
19107
15000
10000
8521
7363
5000
3631
1455 0
1316
Q3 2009 Smartphone Sales — Thousands of Units
http://www.canalys.com/pr/2009/r2009112.htm

iPhone Only Part of US Market
RIM Apple HTC Palm Nokia Samsung Others
1%
4% 2%
5%
6%
52%
30%
Q3 2009 Smartphone Market Share
Source: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html

Symbian Windows Mobile
Objective C WebOS
C
Java ME Dalvik
Palm
Visual Basic
C++
.NET Compact
BREW
Flickr photo by André-Batista: http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=408700622&size=o

Google Mobile — App Challenges
• Pressure from CEO for rapid releases
• 10+ platforms to support
• Over 100 different builds
http://www.flickr.com/photos/83731031@N00/445924458/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/mcdave/142758127/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/nataliejohnson/290541732/

!"#$%&'&()*+)#'",*- ."/'0$*+1"/02&%*3*4",015#02&%
6"7*+&89/%2",*:;0"%*.2%*<2(*2%*6"7*+)#'",*.$2'"*=%#58>"%0,*:;0"% ?/'0"1
!"#$%&"'( !#$# )(&*+$", -(*./+012$/(&$(/ !+3#,(12$/(&$(/
!"#$%&'() !"#$%&'() !"#$%&'() !"#$%&'() !"#$%&'()
*+,-. *+1-. *+/-. *++-. 0---.
234 234 234 234
5'((36. 5'((36. 5'((36. 5'((36.
;E7 A')'&?<:@B%'$#3(& 7'86"."9&: C"")<3:
2!P A?&?:C3(36?< !'.8": =>D:
!"(&6"<:A?&? RS ;(&3<: 3E?F:
U$366F S6'#3 =$$<3: G?H""I:
R"(3F43<< !"#$%&36T'.'"( >6?8<3: G?H""I:J?$?(
E%66"%)H. 5?():D?N. @7! =#?K"(L8"#
A3<<: M3(83(&
!"#$?B =<'N?N?
E?'O%
P?Q%&3(
!"#$%&'())$*+&,*"-&./01+&#"&./21+&34+$5&")&6"*#7)$&011&*4)8()9+&:*$;$)7$<34+$5=>&5$+8#"?&@)#$*)$#&A())$*+&34+$5&")&
16
A$4B#C&D*$4#$5&,*"-&.//0&#"&*$+?$D#(;$&?$48&-4*8$#&D4?(#4B(E4#(")+F&G"7*D$%&64D#G$#>&6"*#7)$>&H"*94)&G#4)B$I&J$+$4*DCF
Source: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html

!"##$%&'()'*+,-'.$/'01,2$'3)4$#'0%$+4$'5(%$'5+%6$4'
0+7"4+2"8+4"(#'4-+#'!"##$%&'()'9%"(%'01,2$&
49:9;.2<=13-./01234.5<2.;<>.2<?@3?A3B?53'34?:592<@C3
4?:5.@<1D3A/?:3E.FG34?:592<@C34HF;1#3!,%&3I &"",JBK
!"#"""#"""
K1D02?53M@21/@12
L4
!#"""#"""
-./01234.5367--8
-<@<F?:5921/
-.<@A/.:1
!""#"""
!"#"""
$%& $%' $%( $)! $)* $)) $(" $(+ $(% $(, $,& $,' $,( $"! $"* $")
!"#$%&'()*$+&,-.$)&-.+-/(#$&0*$.&.$0&/1/,$&2$/"3$)&0$(,#*&/4$(#-".&+4-5$4&6-.&4$(,-#17&/1/,$)&"5$4,(8&)"3$0*(#9:&;"38(.-$)&
-./,<+$%&=(-.>4(3$&? @A=7&B8$4417&C".$10$,,7&!;D7&E.-)1)F&=-.-/"38<#$4&? @A=7&C".$10$,,7&CG7&'H;7&I(.J&K(2)F&G;&? @A=7&17
=-/4")">#7&@.#$,7&;-)/"7&B<.&=-/4")1)#$3)F&@.#$4.$#&? @A=7&=-/4")">#7&L""J,$7&M88,$7&N(*""O:
B"<4/$%&P(/#B$#7&A,""32$4J7&BQG&B#"/R&L<-+$7&="4J(.&B#(.,$1&D$)$(4/*:
Source: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html

Apps are Just the Tip of the Iceberg
• Small & medium businesses will be impacted by mobile, but haven’t yet.
• Can people find their locations, information on mobile?
• Enterprise barely begun — access to Intranet content
• Mobile search = mobile search optimization
• What about Google Maps? How to make sure you show up?
• Mobile advertising campaigns and planning

Tips for Your Mobile Strategy

Consider Whole Mobile Strategy
What happens if they don’t have your app?

The App Store is Not Your Marketing Strategy

What is Your Recurring Revenue Plan?
http://www.pinchmedia.com/appstore-secrets/

Know Your Demographics
Blackberry has Emerging markets
40% 80%
global enterprise of worldwide
mobile market. MMS traffic.

BMW Turned $70k MMS into $45M Revenue

Plan for Mobile Context
personal
permanently carried
always on
built-in payment channel
creative impulse
social context
location aware
accurate audience measurement

http://mobileportland.com

Thank You for Your Time!
http://cloudfour.com/blog • Twitter: @grigs
Mobile Portland: http://mobileportland.com
Flickr photo by Pingnews: http://www.flickr.com/photos/pingnews/370061022/

Backup Slides

!"#$%&'()*&+)&*',-&+.*$)/'012*&3'4"3-&*$*$5&'6.)728.-&'9
:+"#.#$%$*1;<&$/=*&7'08&).+$"2'>?@@A;?@B?CD
!""#$%&'()*(+$,%)'%-.*(%/.)$0*.#%/.01$)%
23.0$4%!(50'*5%-.*(,
!"#$%&'()*#+,-),.%,/*+0+"..(),%"(.+1"%2+"32(.*+*4($5$%*'6+
7(1*#$+4($%89#"4%"(.+(9+:,#%.*#"./+9(#+4,##"*#$;+2,.-$*%+:#()"-*#$;+
$(9%1,#*+-*)*7(:*#$<+=::7*+4(.%".>*$+%(+/,".+$2,#*+12"7*+#*$%+(9
',#?*%+"$+9#**&9(#&,77<+@"&!"+A*4('*$+".4#*,$"./75+"':(#%,.%<+
B((/7*+=.-#("-+',?*$+"':#*$$")*+".#(,-$+,.-+CDE+F7,4?A*##5+
',".%,".$+'($%+(9+"%$+*.%*#:#"$*+>$*#$<+3#(->4%$+1"%2+A*$%+GHEIJ
A#(1$*#$+/,".+$2,#*<
!"#
677%8%9#':%%%%%%%%%
;<='0,$%>.?$ %"# $"# @').#%90.AB$().)*'(
=::7*+"32(.*6+K(?",+ @"..*#$+,.-+7($*#$+-*%*#'".*-+
L5'A",.6+CDE+F7,4?A*##56+ A5+4(':,."*$+1"%2+2(%%*$%+
B((/7*+=.-#("-+M ',#?*%+ :#(->4%$<+N,##"*#$+#*%,".+7(%$+(9+
$2,#*$+),#5+A5+#*/"(.< 4(.%#(7<+=::7*6+B((/7*6+K(?",6+
CDE6+@".-(1$+E(A"7*6+3,7'+
@*AOL6+DKPQ<<<+
!"#$%&'()"$*+,(!-+,.&/(0&1&+$%23153
Source: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html

!"#$%&'(")*+,-&'.'/"0*&0*'12"343*&5'6
7$8&%4'*"'9&2"5&'!"-&':;&0'"<&-'=$5&
!"##$%&'"(%$) !"##$%&'"(%$)&** +),"##$%&'"(%$)- ./$)
!"#$%&'%(&)*+ G//*"%F%H&7.-%F%(.2I& O-/-2 G2+)&.+%F%I&N.*"%("N
> ,-)).")#%-//)&0"%-**% > :"0.1"%D-7")#% > ,-)).")#%/)&D&$"% > H&%2""+%'&)%1&2$"2$%
1&2$"2$3%45.15% -//)&0"%-**%1&2$"2$3% &''.1.-*%6+"178 NB$%-*#&% -//)&0-*
-//"-)#%&2%$5"% 45.15%-//"-)#%&2% 4"*1&D"%=)+ /-)$;%
&''.1.-*%6+"1789 $5"%G//%J$&)"9 6&''?+"178 1&2$"2$ > :"0"*&/")#%<"$%K>A
QG2+)&.+R%$&%S>>A
> :"0"*&/")#%&2*;%<"$% > :"0"*&/")#%<"$%K>A > :"0"*&/")#%<"$%P>A QD&N.*"%4"NR%&'%
=>?@>A &'%)"0"2B"%C% &'%)"0"2B"%C% &'%)"0"2B"%C% )"0"2B"%C%
/)&/)."$-);% #$-2+-)+.L"+%*&1-*% #$-2+-)+.L"+%4"N% #$-2+-)+.L"+%J:M%F%
"20.)&2D"2$ J:M "20.)&2D"2$ 4"N%"20.)&2D"2$
> E#")#%<"$%*.D.$"+% > E#")#%<"$%D&)"% > E#")#%<"$%D&)"%-//#% > E#")#%<"$%"0");$5.2<%
#"*"1$.&2%F%*&2<%4-.$ -//#3%NB$%2&$%-** C%1&2$"2$ -0-.*-N*"
0#12$%&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&3$456./$)&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&./$)
180
!"#$%&'#($&#$)*&+,-./00$1&2/)1$-3 4"5)#$67&"8&9():6#";($)&<:00:4(&"8&=-8:-:#/>&?"5)4$%&=-8:-:#/@&A")B/-&?#/-0$7&C$6$/)4(>
Source: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html