The Mobile Internet is Bigger Than You Think

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Presentation given at a Software Association of Oregon event. Overview of mobile technology space, challenges for app developers, and the opportunity. …

Presentation given at a Software Association of Oregon event. Overview of mobile technology space, challenges for app developers, and the opportunity.

Includes some slides from the EXCELLENT Morgan Stanley report on the Mobile Internet:
http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html

In fact, the title is borrowed from Mary Meeker's presentation at Web 2.0 Summit. It is my theme for 2010.

More in: Technology , Business
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  • 1. Mobile Internet is Bigger than most Think it is. Jason Grigsby • SAO Dec 2009 @grigs on Twitter • jason@cloudfour.com cloudfour.com • mobileportand.com
  • 2. Mobile is the Technology that Cried Wolf. Flickr photo by CaptPiper: http://www.flickr.com/photos/piper/197153406/
  • 3. Mobile is the Technology that Cried Wolf. (for 15 years) Flickr photo by CaptPiper: http://www.flickr.com/photos/piper/197153406/
  • 4. “The Mother of all Markets.” Dr. Eli Harai, San Disk CEO, 2008 John Sculley, Apple CEO, 1992 http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9E0CE5D9143AF93AA25754C0A964958260
  • 5. The Hope for Mobile What is the likelihood of exponential growth for the Internet on Mobile Devices?
  • 6. !"#$%&'()*&+)&*',-*./0&1'2&13*".'()*&+)&*'45".*$") $67")&'8'$9"-07':1&+1';'<='4,>':1&+1'?'@-/+*&+1'4A*&+'>/-)07 3<7=4/1>13?=+571G0H1@??1A=5=B=13CB=A/1G0H1DE61G0H1@/.05,F/1I0/-0 J3-0.1#"1(+,-./-012345/16,+457 M&):: '" ,&-./"()*%"+*"% !"#$%&'()*%"+*"% 3<7=4/1>13?=+57 @/.05,F/K &" 6,+457/A1'L") 6,+457/A1!#L*% %" 2+805-38/-019::; M#&:: ,&-./"()*%"+*"% $" @??1A=5=B=13CB=A/ 6,+457/A1'L** #" M!!:: !"#$%&'()*%"+*"% !" DE6K M):: G1#H"16,+457/A1*L*% (! ($ (& () (* (!! (!$ (!& (!) (!* (+,-./-012345/16,+457 3<7=4/1>13?=+57 @??1A=5=B=13CB=A/ DE6 @/.05,F/ !"#$%&'()*&+,-+./0-$/+&12#2&3"#&242052-5$&-$6"/$&789%:;<&!$#+.2=$&,+$/+&50>0#$1&#"&?@&"35AB&C"/D23&@#235$A&E$+$2/.F&$+#0>2#$+& 26 G9:CC&3$#-""H+&F24$&+F0==$1&03&60/+#&$0DF#&I,2/#$/+&+03.$&52,3.F JKLMLNOB&@",/.$%&7">=23A&E$="/#+&P&C"/D23&@#235$A&E$+$2/.FB Source: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html
  • 7. Opera Mini Traffic Increases Usage up 157% year-over-year http://www.opera.com/media/smw/
  • 8. 4.0 Billion Mobile phone for half the planet. Flickr photo by Pingnews: http://www.flickr.com/photos/pingnews/370061022/
  • 9. 4 Billion in Perspective 4 4B 3 2 1.2B 1.3B 1.4B 1.5B 1.2B 0.85B 0.95B 1 Cars PCs Landlines Email 0 Internet TVs Credit Cards Mobile Source: http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2007/01/putting_27_bill.html http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2008/01/when-there-is-a.html http://www.communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2008/12/trillion-with-a.html
  • 10. 2007 SMS Revenue: 100 billion Flickr photo by Vlastula: http://www.flickr.com/photos/vlastula/450642954/
  • 11. 2007 SMS Revenue: 100 billion •Box Office •DVD Sales & Rentals Combined •Music Industry •Video Games Flickr photo by Vlastula: http://www.flickr.com/photos/vlastula/450642954/
  •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ource: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html
  •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ource: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html
  • 14. 56 million http://blog.wired.com/gadgets/2009/02/shoot-is-iphone.html#c148364123 devices 115,014 http://www.newsweek.com/id/174266 apps > 2 billion http://businessweek.com/@@0M43kIYQYKPISw0A/technology/content/sep2008/tc20080930_257832.htm downloads
  • 15. Gold Rush was On
  • 16. Source: http://gizmodo.com/5199933/giz-explains-all-the-smartphone-mobile-app-stores
  • 17. Ringtone Apps http://twitter.com/justin/status/1210786170 http://furbo.org/2008/12/09/ring-tone-apps/ http://furbo.org/2009/02/16/raising-prices/
  • 18. Ringtone Apps 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 0 .99 1.99 2.99 3.99 4.99 5.99 6.99 7.99 8.99 9.99 10.99 11.99 12.99 13.99 14.99 15.99+ http://148apps.biz/app-store-metrics/?mpage=appprice
  • 19. Brutally Honest iPhone App Sales: $32k Spent vs. $535 Revenue Dapple http://www.streamingcolour.com/blog/2009/03/09/the-numbers-post-aka-brutal-honesty/
  • 20. Throwaway Apps http://www.pinchmedia.com/appstore-secrets/
  • 21. Throwaway Apps http://www.pinchmedia.com/appstore-secrets/
  • 22. Pinch Media’s Conclusions •Users stop using the average applications quickly. •Long-term audiences are generally 1% of total downloads •Paid apps retain users longer, but still steep drop off. •Difficult to make enough money from a free application based on advertising revenue http://www.pinchmedia.com/appstore-secrets/
  • 23. Success Determined by Top Lists & Features http://appcubby.com/blog/files/financial_realities.html
  • 24. 115,000 Apps & Findability? http://148apps.com/10000
  • 25. More Open ≠ No Gatekeeper 96% Approved (what about that 4%?)
  • 26. Some Rejected Applications • Obama Trampoline • MyShoe • I Am Poor • The South Park App • Pull My Finger • iBoobs • Slasher • Murderdome • Podcaster • Freedom Time • Google Voice • iSinglePayer "Even though my personal political leanings are Democratic, I think this app will be offensive to roughly half our customers. What's the point?" — Steve Jobs http://www.pcworld.com/article/159887-2/rejected_10_iphone_apps_that_didnt_make_apples_app_store.html
  • 27. http://www.pcworld.com/article/159887-2/rejected_10_iphone_apps_that_didnt_make_apples_app_store.html
  • 28. http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/04/30/the-hundred-million-dollar-mobile-app-question/
  • 29. iPhone Only Part of World Wide Market Symbian RIM iPhone Microsoft Android Others 20000 19107 15000 10000 8521 7363 5000 3631 1455 0 1316 Q3 2009 Smartphone Sales — Thousands of Units http://www.canalys.com/pr/2009/r2009112.htm
  • 30. iPhone Only Part of US Market RIM Apple HTC Palm Nokia Samsung Others 1% 4% 2% 5% 6% 52% 30% Q3 2009 Smartphone Market Share Source: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html
  • 31. Symbian Windows Mobile Objective C WebOS C Java ME Dalvik Palm Visual Basic C++ .NET Compact BREW Flickr photo by André-Batista: http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=408700622&size=o
  • 32. Google Mobile — App Challenges • Pressure from CEO for rapid releases • 10+ platforms to support • Over 100 different builds http://www.flickr.com/photos/83731031@N00/445924458/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/mcdave/142758127/ http://www.flickr.com/photos/nataliejohnson/290541732/
  •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ource: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html
  •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ource: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html
  • 35. Apps are Just the Tip of the Iceberg • Small & medium businesses will be impacted by mobile, but haven’t yet. • Can people find their locations, information on mobile? • Enterprise barely begun — access to Intranet content • Mobile search = mobile search optimization • What about Google Maps? How to make sure you show up? • Mobile advertising campaigns and planning
  • 36. Tips for Your Mobile Strategy
  • 37. Consider Whole Mobile Strategy What happens if they don’t have your app?
  • 38. The App Store is Not Your Marketing Strategy
  • 39. What is Your Recurring Revenue Plan? http://www.pinchmedia.com/appstore-secrets/
  • 40. Know Your Demographics Blackberry has Emerging markets 40% 80% global enterprise of worldwide mobile market. MMS traffic.
  • 41. BMW Turned $70k MMS into $45M Revenue
  • 42. Plan for Mobile Context personal permanently carried always on built-in payment channel creative impulse social context location aware accurate audience measurement
  • 43. http://mobileportland.com
  • 44. Thank You for Your Time! http://cloudfour.com/blog • Twitter: @grigs Mobile Portland: http://mobileportland.com Flickr photo by Pingnews: http://www.flickr.com/photos/pingnews/370061022/
  • 45. Backup Slides
  •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ource: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html
  •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ource: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html