The Mobile Internet is Bigger Than You Think

Mobile Internet is Bigger than most Think it is. Jason Grigsby • SAO Dec 2009 @grigs on Twitter • jason@cloudfour.com cloudfour.com • mobileportand.com

Mobile is the Technology that Cried Wolf. Flickr photo by CaptPiper: http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/piper/197153406/

Mobile is the Technology that Cried Wolf. (for 15 years) Flickr photo by CaptPiper: http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/piper/197153406/

“The Mother of all Markets.” Dr. Eli Harai, San Disk CEO, 2008 John Sculley, Apple CEO, 1992 http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9E0CE5D9143AF93AA25754C0A964958260

The Hope for Mobile What is the likelihood of exponential growth for the Internet on Mobile Devices?

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ource: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html

Opera Mini Trafﬁc Increases Usage up 157% year-over-year http://www.opera.com/media/smw/

4.0 Billion Mobile phone for half the planet. Flickr photo by Pingnews: http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/pingnews/370061022/

4 Billion in Perspective 4 4B 3 2 1.2B 1.3B 1.4B 1.5B 1.2B 0.85B 0.95B 1 Cars PCs Landlines Email 0 Internet TVs Credit Cards Mobile Source: http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2007/01/putting_27_bill.html http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2008/01/when-there-is-a.html http://www.communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2008/12/trillion-with-a.html

2007 SMS Revenue: 100 billion Flickr photo by Vlastula: http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/vlastula/450642954/

2007 SMS Revenue: 100 billion •Box Ofﬁce •DVD Sales & Rentals Combined •Music Industry •Video Games Flickr photo by Vlastula: http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/vlastula/450642954/

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ource: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html

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ource: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html

56 million http://blog.wired.com/gadgets/2009/02/shoot-is-iphone.html#c148364123 devices 115,014 http://www.newsweek.com/id/174266 apps > 2 billion http://businessweek.com/@@0M43kIYQYKPISw0A/technology/content/sep2008/tc20080930_257832.htm downloads

Gold Rush was On

Source: http://gizmodo.com/5199933/giz-explains-all-the-smartphone-mobile-app-stores

Ringtone Apps http://twitter.com/justin/status/1210786170 http://furbo.org/2008/12/09/ring-tone-apps/ http://furbo.org/2009/02/16/raising-prices/

Ringtone Apps 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 0 .99 1.99 2.99 3.99 4.99 5.99 6.99 7.99 8.99 9.99 10.99 11.99 12.99 13.99 14.99 15.99+ http://148apps.biz/app-store-metrics/?mpage=appprice

Brutally Honest iPhone App Sales: $32k Spent vs. $535 Revenue Dapple http://www.streamingcolour.com/blog/2009/03/09/the-numbers-post-aka-brutal-honesty/

Throwaway Apps http://www.pinchmedia.com/appstore-secrets/

Pinch Media’s Conclusions •Users stop using the average applications quickly. •Long-term audiences are generally 1% of total downloads •Paid apps retain users longer, but still steep drop off. •Difficult to make enough money from a free application based on advertising revenue http://www.pinchmedia.com/appstore-secrets/

Success Determined by Top Lists & Features http://appcubby.com/blog/ﬁles/ﬁnancial_realities.html

115,000 Apps & Findability? http://148apps.com/10000

More Open ≠ No Gatekeeper 96% Approved (what about that 4%?)

Some Rejected Applications • Obama Trampoline • MyShoe • I Am Poor • The South Park App • Pull My Finger • iBoobs • Slasher • Murderdome • Podcaster • Freedom Time • Google Voice • iSinglePayer "Even though my personal political leanings are Democratic, I think this app will be offensive to roughly half our customers. What's the point?" — Steve Jobs http://www.pcworld.com/article/159887-2/rejected_10_iphone_apps_that_didnt_make_apples_app_store.html

http://www.pcworld.com/article/159887-2/rejected_10_iphone_apps_that_didnt_make_apples_app_store.html

http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/04/30/the-hundred-million-dollar-mobile-app-question/

iPhone Only Part of World Wide Market Symbian RIM iPhone Microsoft Android Others 20000 19107 15000 10000 8521 7363 5000 3631 1455 0 1316 Q3 2009 Smartphone Sales — Thousands of Units http://www.canalys.com/pr/2009/r2009112.htm

iPhone Only Part of US Market RIM Apple HTC Palm Nokia Samsung Others 1% 4% 2% 5% 6% 52% 30% Q3 2009 Smartphone Market Share Source: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html

Symbian Windows Mobile Objective C WebOS C Java ME Dalvik Palm Visual Basic C++ .NET Compact BREW Flickr photo by André-Batista: http://www.ﬂickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=408700622&size=o

Google Mobile — App Challenges • Pressure from CEO for rapid releases • 10+ platforms to support • Over 100 different builds http://www.flickr.com/photos/83731031@N00/445924458/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/mcdave/142758127/ http://www.flickr.com/photos/nataliejohnson/290541732/

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ource: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html

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ource: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html

Apps are Just the Tip of the Iceberg • Small & medium businesses will be impacted by mobile, but haven’t yet. • Can people ﬁnd their locations, information on mobile? • Enterprise barely begun — access to Intranet content • Mobile search = mobile search optimization • What about Google Maps? How to make sure you show up? • Mobile advertising campaigns and planning

Tips for Your Mobile Strategy

Consider Whole Mobile Strategy What happens if they don’t have your app?

The App Store is Not Your Marketing Strategy

What is Your Recurring Revenue Plan? http://www.pinchmedia.com/appstore-secrets/

Know Your Demographics Blackberry has Emerging markets 40% 80% global enterprise of worldwide mobile market. MMS traffic.

BMW Turned $70k MMS into $45M Revenue

Plan for Mobile Context personal permanently carried always on built-in payment channel creative impulse social context location aware accurate audience measurement

http://mobileportland.com

Thank You for Your Time! http://cloudfour.com/blog • Twitter: @grigs Mobile Portland: http://mobileportland.com Flickr photo by Pingnews: http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/pingnews/370061022/

Backup Slides

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ource: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html

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ource: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html

http://www.dreamgrow.com	227
http://www.slideshare.net	97
http://www.sportsmarketing20.com	37
http://okapireport.com	37
http://bendersbookmarks.blogspot.com	33
http://arundudee.blogspot.com	12
http://nextweek.posterous.com	10
http://chrisrutz.de	9
http://sportsmarketing20.com	8
http://www.felgner.ch	7
http://chummyideas.wordpress.com	6
http://bostondave.posterous.com	4
http://arundudee.blogspot.in	3
http://blog.bostondave.net	1

The Mobile Internet is Bigger Than You Think

by Jason Grigsby on Dec 18, 2009

Accessibility

Categories

Tags

Upload Details

Usage Rights

14 Embeds 491

Statistics

The Mobile Internet is Bigger Than You Think — Presentation Transcript