State of the Mobile Industry -- Innotech Portland

The State of Mobile Technology by Jason Grigsby Flickr: Uploaded February 11, 2007 by hawridger Work: http://cloudfour.com • Blog: http://userﬁrstweb.com • http://mobileportland.com Twitter: @grigs • jason@cloudfour.com

3.3 Billion Mobile phone for half the planet. Flickr photo by Pingnews: http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/pingnews/370061022/

3.3 Billion in Perspective Source: http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2007/01/putting_27_bill.html http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2008/01/when-there-is-a.html

2007 SMS Revenue: 100 billion Flickr photo by Vlastula: http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/vlastula/450642954/

2007 SMS Revenue: 100 billion •Box Ofﬁce •DVD Sales & Rentals Combined •Music Industry •Video Games Flickr photo by Vlastula: http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/vlastula/450642954/

200 billion for data services in 2008 (SMS accounts for 130B) •Box Ofﬁce •DVD Sales & Rentals Combined •Music Industry •Video Games Flickr photo by Vlastula: http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/vlastula/450642954/

Mobile Phone Adoption Still Growing • China Mobile has 317 million subscribers—more than U.S. population. • China total market is half a billion users. They are adding 6 million subscribers per month. • 28% of mobile phone owners have two or more subscriptions. • Average for industrialized countries is over 100% subscriber rate, led by 140% subscriber rate for Hong Kong, Taiwan, Italy and Israel. (U.S. is at a paltry 80%) • Percentage of younger phone users increasing. Normal for children under 10 years old to have a phone in Europe and Asia. • Population grows by 3 people a second. 38 mobile devices a second.

The 7th Mass Media http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2007/02/mobile_the_7th_.html Flickr photos: http://www.flickr.com/photos/nitsrejk/126982680/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/roadsidepictures/ 317559195/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/snurb/172039084/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/kt/249301268/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/simon_aughton/2178768452/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/lecates/454787692/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/gaetanlee/118885175/

“I’m not sure we can call it a wave. Tsunami?” — Eric Peterson, Leading Web Analytics Author & Consultant Flickr photo by look4u: http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/look4u/279668622/

It's the recreation of the Internet, it's the recreation of the PC story and it is before us — and it is very likely it will happen in the next year. Eric Schmidt, Google CEO speaking at Davos, January 2008

Mobile is the Technology that Cried Wolf. Flickr photo by CaptPiper: http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/piper/197153406/

Mobile is the Technology that Cried Wolf. (for 15 years) Flickr photo by CaptPiper: http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/piper/197153406/

“The Mother of all Markets.” Dr. Eli Harai, San Disk CEO, 2008 John Sculley, Apple CEO, 1992 http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9E0CE5D9143AF93AA25754C0A964958260

Gopher, Mosaic, WAP, iPhone Flickr photo by: http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/vixon/352427852/

U.S. Mobile Browser Share Source: NetApplications, August 2008 Graphic courtesy Raven Zachary, http://raven.me

“It’s about usage. Not units” • Number of queries on Google search from iPhones surpassed those from Symbian-based phones in the days after Christmas. Nokia’s Symbian-based phones are 40% of the market worldwide. • German iPhone users consume 30 times more data. • 95% of iPhone customers regularly surf the Internet. Data services revenue increased from $2.7 billion in 2005 to $6.9 billion in 2007. • Google sees 50 times the number of searches using the iPhone than any other mobile device. They were so surprised, they asked their engineers to check the logs to make sure it was correct. • This is why major companies, Google, Quicken, etc. are all launching iPhone-optimized services despite the iPhone’s 1% market share.

Adoption of Internet • In 1994, best estimates were 20 to 30 million people on the Internet. That is less that 1% of the world’s population at the time. • In 2007, 12% of carrier revenue is data services and only 16% of users access the web on those devices once a month. • 1994, 5% of people surveyed said that they were willing to pay fees for web access. 97% of people were using Mosiac and a text browser, Lynx was #2 • Late 1994, 18% using Netscape and 71% said they might pay depending on cost and quality.

The Hope for Mobile What is the likelihood of exponential growth for the Internet on Mobile Devices?

Mobile Web Doubled in 2008 Jan 08 Jan 09 10821 Daily 22369 10312 Weekly 19283 36870 Ever in Month 63182 0 17500 35000 52500 70000 Unique Users (000s) http://www.comscore.com/press/release.asp?press=2752

Mobile Internet to Grow Despite Recession Average intended usage increase over the next 24 months U.S. Europe Current Users 58% 55% Non-Users 27% 28% http://www.tellabs.com/news/2009/index.cfm/nr/53.cfm

Top Five Services Non-users Intend to Start Using in the Next 24 Months U.S. Europe Mobile Internet 49% 34% MMS 38% 39% Uploading Photos 34% 27% Software/app download 30% 30% Email 28% 32%

Surprise Story of 2008 Flickr photo by Drift Words: http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/44124413076@N01/11846265/

Flickr photo by Civisi: http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/civisi/2611679744/ Web 2.0 iPhone App Store Web-based Apps Native Apps Services & Mashups Few APIs between apps Software as Service No Recurring Revenue Cloud Computing Local Storage

http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/top_10_web_platforms_of_2008.php

What makes the App Store successful? Carriers App Store Open to anyone Openness Closed, Seek permission who signs agreement Entry Cost Thousands of dollars $99 Revenue Split 60/40 to 50/50 70/30 Restrictions Many Few Releases Difﬁcult, Timely 1 to 2 weeks Micropayments Inconsistent iTunes for every phone

30 million devices http://blog.wired.com/gadgets/2009/02/shoot-is-iphone.html#c148364123 25,000 apps http://www.newsweek.com/id/174266 800 million downloads http://businessweek.com/@@0M43kIYQYKPISw0A/technology/content/sep2008/tc20080930_257832.htm

Gold Rush was On

Source: http://gizmodo.com/5199933/giz-explains-all-the-smartphone-mobile-app-stores

Ringtone Apps (FYI: Justin’s app is out soon. GymRat. $4.99) http://twitter.com/justin/status/1210786170 http://furbo.org/2008/12/09/ring-tone-apps/ http://furbo.org/2009/02/16/raising-prices/

Ringtone Apps 15000 11250 7500 3750 0 0 1.99 3.99 5.99 7.99 9.99 11.99 13.99 15.99+ http://148apps.com/10000

Brutally Honest iPhone App Sales: $32k Spent vs. $535 Revenue Dapple http://www.streamingcolour.com/blog/2009/03/09/the-numbers-post-aka-brutal-honesty/

Throwaway Apps http://www.pinchmedia.com/appstore-secrets/

Pinch Media’s Conclusions •Users stop using the average applications quickly. •Long-term audiences are generally 1% of total downloads •Paid apps retain users longer, but still steep drop o. http://www.pinchmedia.com/appstore-secrets/

25,000 Apps & Findability? http://148apps.com/10000

iPhone Only Part of World Wide Market Symbian RIM Windows Mobile iPhone Linux Palm OS Other 20000 17949 15000 10000 7443 5000 4714 4079 3195 0 327 437 Q4 2008 Smartphone Sales — Thousands of Units http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=910112

Symbian Windows Mobile Objective C WebOS C Dalvik Java ME Palm Visual Basic C++ .NET Compact BREW Flickr photo by André-Batista: http://www.ﬂickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=408700622&size=o

Google Mobile — App Challenges • Pressure from CEO for rapid releases • 10+ platforms to support • Over 100 dierent builds http://www.flickr.com/photos/83731031@N00/445924458/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/mcdave/142758127/ http://www.flickr.com/photos/nataliejohnson/290541732/

3.3 Billion in Perspective Source: http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2007/01/putting_27_bill.html http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2008/01/when-there-is-a.html

Mobile Internet to Grow Despite Recession Average intended usage increase over the next 24 months U.S. Europe Current Users 58% 55% Non-Users 27% 28% http://www.tellabs.com/news/2009/index.cfm/nr/53.cfm

Mobile = Rapid Convergence • PDAs — In 2000, there were 10 million PDAs sold. Today, PDAs sell less than 10 million per year while smartphones sell more than 120 million annually. • Digital Cameras — In 2006, there were 450 million cameraphones sold compared to almost 90 million standalone cameras. • MP3 Players — “At the end of 2004, Apple’s iPod had held an 80% market share of the global MP3 player market.” In 2005, handset manufacturers got serious about adding music to their phones. By 2006, musicphone sales of 309 million dwarfed iPod sales of 46 million units.

BMW Turned $70k MMS into $45M Revenue

Flickr photo by MarkKelley: http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/markkelley/1022720488/

Thank You for Your Time! Work: http://cloudfour.com • Blog: http://userﬁrstweb.com • Twitter: @grigs Mobile Portland: http://mobileportland.com Flickr photo by Pingnews: http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/pingnews/370061022/

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State of the Mobile Industry -- Innotech Portland

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