Jason Grigsby
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Going Fast on the Mobile WebIf you are primarily interested in what the future holds for mobile devices and not so much how to build fast mobile web pages, you may be interested in my Mobile Tsunami presentation. That presentation also includes audio:
http://www.slideshare.net/grigs/mobile-tsunami2 years ago
Jason Grigsby
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Going Fast on the Mobile WebAlso, slide 25 has a completely black graphic. The original pdf that I uploaded was correct. You can see the graphic and the information behind it here:
http://yuiblog.com/blog/2006/11/28/performance-research-part-1/2 years ago
Jason Grigsby
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Going Fast on the Mobile WebI’m trying to add a comment to slide 8, but the commenting features isn’t changing to the correct slide number when I change slides.
I’ve written a blog post explaining the context for slide 8:
http://userfirstweb.com/251/thoughts-on-lynne-d-johnsons-unkeynote/2 years ago
Jason Grigsby
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Mobile TsunamiClick on the "COMMENTS ON SLIDE 1" Tab above for easy access to presenter’s notes.
Presenter’s notes have been added as comments on each slide. I recommend viewing the slides with the presenters notes as some of the slides are meaningless without the notes.2 years ago
Jason Grigsby
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Mobile TsunamiI’m here to tell you a story. The story starts over 8 years ago when I got my first Handspring and my first mobile phone.
Looking at the two devices in my pockets, I realized that there was a lot of potential if my phone, which was connected to the Internet, had access to the capabilities of the Handspring. Or vice versa.
I became consumed with the idea that if people had ready access to information wherever and whenever they needed it that it could be the sort of thing that could change the world for the better.2 years ago
Jason Grigsby
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Mobile TsunamiAnd when I say consumed. I mean CONSUMED.
My apartment was covered with large post-it notes describing what might be possible and a business plan built on this idea.
I had forgotten about this until recently when we decided to start Cloud Four to focus on mobile development. My wife Dana reminded me that when she met me that my apartment was covered in post-it notes like some sort of mad scientist’s lab.
Probably not the best way to make a first impression. I’m tremendously lucky that despite the obsession, she still married me. :-)2 years ago
Jason Grigsby
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Mobile TsunamiI really believe we were onto something when it came to the convergence of mobile phones and PDAs. Unfortunately, we hit a wall called WAP.
The reality was the technology wasn’t good enough to do what we wanted to do. The world changing would have to wait.
Instead I got a great job at a wonderful company building web sites and applications for standards-setting organizations.2 years ago
Jason Grigsby
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Mobile TsunamiAfter seven years at that same company, I found myself yearning for something new. I found myself asking what was next: both for technology and for me.2 years ago
Jason Grigsby
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Mobile TsunamiWhen I looked around, there were three things that couldn’t be ignored:
The first was the release of the iPhone. It made the dreams of 8 years ago seem not only possible, but inevitable. The dream was close to becoming a reality.2 years ago
Jason Grigsby
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Mobile TsunamiThe second was meeting Kinan Sweidan at Web Visions. Kinan and I discussed mobile development. I told him that I was surprised he chose to work on mobile given the frustrating lack of standards and the control that carriers have.
Kinan said that yes, it was frustrating and difficult, but that it was in this space that the true opportunity lies because when it is easy and standardized that it is commoditized.
I had spent the last seven years working at a company that built web sites and applications for standards-setting organizations so I lived and breathed standards. Kinan’s words were heresy. And when I thought about the early days of the web, I realized that they were true.2 years ago
Jason Grigsby
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Mobile TsunamiThe final thing that couldn’t be ignored was a number. It was originally 2.7 and later 3.3 billion. That is the number of mobile devices in the world.
That’s an astonishing number. It is difficult to comprehend how large that is.2 years ago
Jason Grigsby
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Mobile Tsunami3.3 billion mobile devices means that there is a subscription for every two people on the planet. None of the other popular technologies can come close to this widespread adoption.2 years ago
Jason Grigsby
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Mobile TsunamiTomi T Ahonen recently helped put 3.3 billion in perspective. There are more mobile phones than Cars, PCs, Telephones, Credit Cards and Televisions. We think of television as being the global mass market, but it is dwarfed by the mobile phone market.
It is astonishing that mobile phones can be such a large market and at the same time be under the radar for most businesses.
Source: http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2007/01/putting_27_bill.html
http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2008/01/when-there-is-a.html2 years ago
Jason Grigsby
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Mobile TsunamiThe mobile market is so large that one portion of the market, SMS, accounted for 100 billion in revenue in 2007. Again, Tomi puts this in perspective by noting:
"That is as big as total Hollywood box office, total Hollywood DVD sales and rentals, total music industry revenues and total videogaming software revenues in 2007 - combined. By contrast the total messaging revenues of email and IM are less than 5 billion dollars globally."
http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2008/01/when-there-is-a.html
Flickr photo by Vlastula: http://www.flickr.com/photos/vlastula/450642954/2 years ago
Jason Grigsby
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Mobile TsunamiAnd the mobile market is still growing at a tremendous pace. China has more subscribers than that U.S. population. China and India continue to grow at tremendous rates.
One important fact to remember is that many people have more than one mobile phone. Often people have their work and their personal mobile phones. This means that many countries have over 100% subscriber rates.
Because of the fact that people often have two phones, the total market for mobile phones still has a long ways to go before the market becomes saturated.
This is also the first of many indicators of how America is behind the rest of the world when it comes to mobile adoption and leadership. America has 80% subscriber rate whereas most of industrialized nations are at or above 100%.
Finally, the USA Today recently stated that the world population grows by 3 people per second. In that same second, 38 mobile devices will be sold.
Sources:
http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/telecom/2008-01-09-google-phone_N.htm
http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2008/01/when-there-is-a.html
http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2008/02/who-is-ahead-an.html
http://www.infoworld.com/article/07/01/22/HNchinamobilesubscribers_1.html2 years ago
Jason Grigsby
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Mobile TsunamiWhat is more significant than the size of the market is how our use of phones is changing and how rapidly it is changing.
Deloitte & Touch conducted two surveys of American mobile phone users in 2007. They asked consumers if they used their phone for entertainment. In March, only 24% said they did. By October, that number had jumped to 36% an increase of 50% in only 6 months.
62% of those 13 to 24 years old use their phone for entertainment and almost half of those 25 to 41 years old do. 20% of those surveyed said they watch video content daily or almost daily.
As the usage changes, it will become more important to recognize that mobile devices are much more than phones. They are in fact media.
Source: http://www.wireless-watch.com/2008/01/02/americans-more-connected-online-says-deloitte-touche-study/2 years ago
Jason Grigsby
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Mobile Tsunami1. The first was the printing press which allowed mass distribution of books.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/nitsrejk/126982680/2 years ago
Jason Grigsby
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Mobile Tsunami2. Then came recordings.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/roadsidepictures/317559195/2 years ago
Jason Grigsby
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Mobile Tsunami3. Third was cinema.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/snurb/172039084/2 years ago
Jason Grigsby
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Mobile Tsunami4. Then radio.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/kt/249301268/2 years ago
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