Portuguese Forecasting System - POL Workshop 22-24 October

The Portuguese Forecasting System Instituto Superior Técnico Lisbon Portugal Guillaume Riflet, POL workshop, 22nd – 24th October, Mallorca

Contents • The portuguese in the ECOOP framework • Observation system • Regional forecasting systems • Local models ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd 24th October, Mallorca

Who we are MARETEC – Instituto Superior Técnico, Lisbon Research unit specialized in the numerical modeling of marine systems ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd 24th October, Mallorca

Who we are Development of a forecasting tool of the marine environment •Universidade Técnica de Lisboa •Universidade de Coimbra •Universidade do Algarve ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd 24th October, Mallorca

Who are the endusers? • Bathing and recreation • Navigation • Fisheries • Aquaculture • Human occupation • Industry and agriculture • Energy • The natural ecosystem ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd 24th October, Mallorca

Overview Ag. Galicia Waste waters Pollutant dispersion/Oil spills SIMRIA Navigation (debris, containers, people) Ag.Oeste Monitoring (eutrophication, SIMTEJO HAB’s) SANEST Ag.Sto.André ICREW Ag.Algarve ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd 24th October, Mallorca

Objectives Build coastal management products Ag. Galicia for endusers SIMRIA Ag.Oeste National authorities, institutes, public and private companies, researchers SIMTEJO SANEST Ag.Sto.André ICREW Ag.Algarve Regional and mostly local applications ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd 24th October, Mallorca

Observation – field data Ag. Galicia SIMRIA Ag.Oeste SIMTEJO SANEST Ag.Sto.André ICREW Ag.Algarve ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd 24th October, Mallorca

Observation – stations, buoys Instituto Hidrográfico buoys which are setup in harbours (Lisbon, Sines, Leixões, Oporto) that provide waves direction and intensity; Meteorological stations (Guia de Cascais, Nazaré); •Buoys which measure freshwater inputs (Tagus, Mondego, Guadiana, INAG data); ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd 24th October, Mallorca

Observation – remotesensing data •MODIS •SeaWifs ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd 24th October, Mallorca

Regional scale models Local models need regional models • ocean and atmospheric circulation • waves ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd 24th October, Mallorca

Regional scale models Wave model WW3, 3 day forecast. objective: couple to swan into local models harbours. ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd 24th October, Mallorca

Regional scale models Hydrodynamical operational modeling of portuguese coast. • PSY2V2 solution • resolution: 1/15º ~ 57 km • 43 zcoordinate layers • SLA, SST and insitu data assimilation • Presents mediterranean outflow, meddy permitting (Drillet 2005) • ECMWF atmospheric forcing • 14 days forecast • NO TIDE ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd 24th October, Mallorca

Regional scale models Hydrodynamical operational modeling of portuguese coast. •3 Domains: 81, 27 and 9 km •25 vertical levels •GFS forcings •Winds •Latent heat •Sensible heat •Precipitation •Cloud cover •7 days forecasts ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd 24th October, Mallorca

Regional scale models Hydrodynamical operational modeling of portuguese coast. •One 2D domain (for recreating tide) •3 Domains: 81, 27 and 9 km •Two 3D Domains: •25 vertical levels 0.06º and 0.02º •GFS forcings •42 layers •Winds •ETOPO2’ baseline •Latent heat data interpolation •Sensible heat •2D and 3D [12.6º, •Precipitation 5.5º]Ex[34.4º 45º]N •Cloud cover•[11.2º, 8.8º]Ex[37.5º •7 days forecasts 40.3º]N ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd 24th October, Mallorca

Regional scale models Hydrodynamical operational modeling of portuguese coast. •3 Domains: 81, 27 and 9 km •25 vertical levels •GFS forcings •Winds •Latent heat •Sensible heat •Precipitation •Cloud cover •7 days forecasts ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd 24th October, Mallorca

Remote sensing comparison 9 June 2007 MOHID MODIS ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd 24th October, Mallorca

Buoys comparison Surface velocity modulus Buoy data kindly provided by Puertos del Estado ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd 24th October, Mallorca

Buoys comparison Water level from 4.5 from a tidal station 4 in pink located at 3.5 Water level (m) 3 37º57’ ºN and 2.5 8º55’ ºW in Sines 2 1.5 and illustrated in 1 0.5 the the 0 bathymetries 0902 1102 1302 1502 1702 1902 2102 2302 2502 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 figure. Water level 12:00 12:00 12:00 12:00 12:00 12:00 12:00 12:00 12:00 from the pre Time operational model in forecast mode Sines tide gauge Operational model for the same location. The correlation is 0.99 + 5e3 and the RMSE is 0.19 + 5e3 m. ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd 24th October, Mallorca

Integrated results midOctober 2006 midfebruary 2007 Horizontal distribution of velocity ensemble average at 2 m depth for the top panel and 645 m depth for the bottom panel. Two main branches of the MW spreading pathways are well pronounced in the bottom panel. the poleward slope current branch, and the cyclonic recirculation flowing southward. ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd 24th October, Mallorca

Integrated results midOctober 2006 midfebruary 2007 Colour map and contours of salinity distribution ensemble average at 1000 m depth ranging in interval [35.6 36.2] showing the spreading pathway of the MO off western Iberia. Contour lines are valued [35.6; 35.78; 35.84; 35.9; 35.96; 36.02; 36.08; 36.14; 36.2] ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd 24th October, Mallorca

Integrated results midOctober 2006 midfebruary 2007 On the left panel, salinity contours of [35.5; 35.52; 35.83; 35.94; 36.05; 36.16; 36.27; 36.38; 36.49; 36.6] and color maps in the interval [35.5 36.6]. On the right panel, ensemble averages of zonal velocity contours of [.15; .12; .09; .06; .03; 0; .03; .06; .09;.12; .15] ms1 and color maps in the interval [.15 .15] ms1. The plots are meridional sections in the Gulf of Cadiz at longitude 7.83 ºW. The MO shifts from a bottom current to a buoyancy driven intermediate depth jet current. The cross sections are shown in the bathymetries figure. ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd 24th October, Mallorca

Results avaible on opendap

Local scale models: Tagus estuary Discharges from rivers / WWTP’s NazaréSetúbal (∆x = 2km) Tagus estuary (∆x = 300 m) Nazaré – Setúbal (2D) -Hydrodynamics Tagus (2D) WWTP Discharge Tagus (3D-11 levels) -Hydrodynamics -Hydrodynamics -Water quality Cascais (∆x = 35 m) Guia (3D-11 levels) Carc. - P. Arcos (2D) -Hydrodynamic Carc. - P. Arcos (3D-11levels) -Hidrodynamics -Initial Dilution (Mohid Jet)+ -Hydrodynamics - Dispersion (Lagrangian)

Local scale models: Tagus estuary

Estoril coast – process studies ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd 24th October, Mallorca

Tagus estuary – process studies Phytoplankton Ammonia Nitrate Inorganic Phosphorus FEBRUARY JUNE ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd 24th October, Mallorca

Foz do Arelho: lagoon + submarine outfall

Validation of coastal model 4.0 Field Data 3.5 MOHID Model 3.0 Level [m] 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 22Nov00 22Nov00 22Nov00 22Nov00 22Nov00 23Nov00 23Nov00 23Nov00 23Nov00 23Nov00 24Nov00 PENICHE Time (Days) Average Value Root Mean Correlation (x ± σ) (m) Square Error Bias Tidal Stations Coefficient (RMSE) (m) Model Data (R) (m) 2.081±0.92 Peniche 1.990±0.894 0.985 1.367 0.100 0 2.030±0.74 Cascais 2.030±0.735 0.992 0.4124 0.020 2 CASCAIS

Obidos lagoon model validation BICO DOS CORVOS 4.0 Field Data MOHID Model 3.5 3.0 Level [m] 2.5 2.0 1.5 24Nov00 24Nov00 24Nov00 25Nov00 25Nov00 26Nov00 26Nov00 26Nov00 Time (Days) Average Value Root Mean Correlation Tidal Gauge (x ± σ) (m) Square Error Bias Coefficient Stations (RMSE) (m) Model Data (R) (m) Cais da Foz do 2.667±0.23 2.691±0.290 0.987 0.081 0.025 Arelho 0 Bico dos 2.719±0.29 2.695±0.266 0.988 0.072 0.024 Corvos 9 2.706±0.29 Barrosa 2.704±0.273 0.989 0.062 0.001 9

Obidos lagoon model validation 2.0 TOPO DO CANAL Field Data MOHID Model 1.6 Intensity [m/s] 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 29Nov00 29Nov00 29Nov00 29Nov00 29Nov00 29Nov00 29Nov00 29Nov00 29Nov00 Time (Days) Average Value Root Mean Currents Correlation (x ± σ) (m/s) Square Error transects coefficient Bias (m/s) (RMSE) stations Model Data (R) (m/s) Cais da Foz do 0.427±0.13 0.382±0.086 0.891 0.090 -0.045 Arelho 0 0.974±0.37 Topo do Canal 1.103±0.445 0.904 0.276 0.129 2 0.392±0.11 Barra 0.307±0.097 0.957 0.098 -0.086 9

COASTAL AREA MODEL VALIDATION 50 20 6 Field Data 40 4 MOHID Model 30 NorthSouth wind component 10 NorthSouth current component NorthSouth component 2 20 0 0 10 0 [cm/s] [m/s] 10 2 [cm/s] 40 30 20 10 10 0 10 20 30 40 20 4 20 6 30 30 8 40 40 10 50 50 12 15Nov00 15Nov00 15Nov00 15Nov00 16Nov00 16Nov00 16Nov00 16Nov00 16Nov00 17Nov00 WestEast component [cm/s] Field Data MOHID Model Wind Average Value Correlation Root Mean Square (x ± σ) (cm/s) Bias Depth (m) Coefficient Error (RMSE) (cm/s) Model Data (R) (cm/s) -10.730 5 -13.380±8.389 0.711 10.109 3.007 ±10.528

Fo z d Animação o Ar el ho b ea ch

Nesting Galician coast (2D) Rias Baixas (3D – 20 layers) Rias de Vigo and Pontevedra (3D – 13 layers) ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd 24th October, Mallorca

Nesting New subdomains with grid resolution = 100m Ria de Vigo (inner side) Baiona Bay

Arrows every 200 m Nesting Ria de Vigo (3D – 8 layers) grid resolution = 100m Detailed view Extended view Arrows every 400 m ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd 24th October, Mallorca

Nesting Arrows every 200 m Baiona (3D – 8 layers) grid resolution = 100m ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd 24th October, Mallorca

MaBenE – Rafts’ polygon scale ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd 24th October, Mallorca

MaBenE – Rafts’ polygon scale 3.5 km 5 km ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd 24th October, Mallorca

MaBenE – Rafts’ polygon scale Model 34 meters layer EBB 24 hours after high tide ADCP (GKSS) ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd 24th October, Mallorca

ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd 24th October, Mallorca

Products Operational systems Large scale models Software (meteo, ocean, waves) (model, tools, documentation) Regional models Base knowledge (meteo, ocean, waves) Need for Enduser implementation Monitoring Local models system (meteo, ocean, waves) Observations – field data Results ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd 24th October, Mallorca

Thank you ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd 24th October, Mallorca

Portuguese Forecasting System - POL Workshop 22-24 October

0 comments

Notes on slide 1

Favorites, Groups & Events