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Portuguese Forecasting System - POL Workshop 22-24 October
Portuguese Forecasting System - POL Workshop 22-24 October
Portuguese Forecasting System - POL Workshop 22-24 October
Portuguese Forecasting System - POL Workshop 22-24 October
Portuguese Forecasting System - POL Workshop 22-24 October
Portuguese Forecasting System - POL Workshop 22-24 October
Portuguese Forecasting System - POL Workshop 22-24 October
Portuguese Forecasting System - POL Workshop 22-24 October
Portuguese Forecasting System - POL Workshop 22-24 October
Portuguese Forecasting System - POL Workshop 22-24 October
Portuguese Forecasting System - POL Workshop 22-24 October
Portuguese Forecasting System - POL Workshop 22-24 October
Portuguese Forecasting System - POL Workshop 22-24 October
Portuguese Forecasting System - POL Workshop 22-24 October
Portuguese Forecasting System - POL Workshop 22-24 October
Portuguese Forecasting System - POL Workshop 22-24 October
Portuguese Forecasting System - POL Workshop 22-24 October
Portuguese Forecasting System - POL Workshop 22-24 October
Portuguese Forecasting System - POL Workshop 22-24 October
Portuguese Forecasting System - POL Workshop 22-24 October
Portuguese Forecasting System - POL Workshop 22-24 October
Portuguese Forecasting System - POL Workshop 22-24 October
Portuguese Forecasting System - POL Workshop 22-24 October
Portuguese Forecasting System - POL Workshop 22-24 October
Portuguese Forecasting System - POL Workshop 22-24 October
Portuguese Forecasting System - POL Workshop 22-24 October
Portuguese Forecasting System - POL Workshop 22-24 October
Portuguese Forecasting System - POL Workshop 22-24 October
Portuguese Forecasting System - POL Workshop 22-24 October
Portuguese Forecasting System - POL Workshop 22-24 October
Portuguese Forecasting System - POL Workshop 22-24 October
Portuguese Forecasting System - POL Workshop 22-24 October
Portuguese Forecasting System - POL Workshop 22-24 October
Portuguese Forecasting System - POL Workshop 22-24 October
Portuguese Forecasting System - POL Workshop 22-24 October
Portuguese Forecasting System - POL Workshop 22-24 October
Portuguese Forecasting System - POL Workshop 22-24 October
Portuguese Forecasting System - POL Workshop 22-24 October
Portuguese Forecasting System - POL Workshop 22-24 October
Portuguese Forecasting System - POL Workshop 22-24 October
Portuguese Forecasting System - POL Workshop 22-24 October
Portuguese Forecasting System - POL Workshop 22-24 October
Portuguese Forecasting System - POL Workshop 22-24 October
Portuguese Forecasting System - POL Workshop 22-24 October
Portuguese Forecasting System - POL Workshop 22-24 October
Portuguese Forecasting System - POL Workshop 22-24 October
Portuguese Forecasting System - POL Workshop 22-24 October
Portuguese Forecasting System - POL Workshop 22-24 October
Portuguese Forecasting System - POL Workshop 22-24 October
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Portuguese Forecasting System - POL Workshop 22-24 October

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In this presentation the status of the Portuguese forecasting system of …

In this presentation the status of the Portuguese forecasting system of
the marine environment is described. I must be payed into attention that
our current end-users are waste-waster monitoring companies.
Furthermore, it is neutrally disconnected from military systems, such as
Instituto Hidrografico, that, for security reasons, cannot interact
freely with the scientific and civilian community.

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  • 1. The Portuguese Forecasting  System Instituto Superior Técnico  Lisbon ­ Portugal Guillaume Riflet, POL workshop, 22nd – 24th October, Mallorca 
  • 2. Contents • The portuguese in the ECOOP framework • Observation system • Regional forecasting systems • Local models ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd ­ 24th October, Mallorca
  • 3. Who we are MARETEC – Instituto Superior  Técnico, Lisbon Research unit specialized  in the numerical modeling  of marine systems ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd ­ 24th October, Mallorca
  • 4. Who we are Development of a forecasting  tool of the marine environment •Universidade Técnica de  Lisboa •Universidade de Coimbra •Universidade do Algarve ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd ­ 24th October, Mallorca
  • 5. Who are the end­users? • Bathing and recreation • Navigation • Fisheries • Aquaculture • Human occupation • Industry and agriculture • Energy • The natural ecosystem ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd ­ 24th October, Mallorca
  • 6. Overview Ag. Galicia Waste waters Pollutant dispersion/Oil spills SIMRIA Navigation (debris, containers,  people) Ag.Oeste Monitoring (eutrophication,  SIMTEJO HAB’s) SANEST Ag.Sto.André ICREW Ag.Algarve ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd ­ 24th October, Mallorca
  • 7. Objectives Build coastal  management products  Ag. Galicia for end­users SIMRIA Ag.Oeste National authorities, institutes, public and  private companies, researchers SIMTEJO SANEST Ag.Sto.André ICREW Ag.Algarve Regional and mostly local applications  ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd ­ 24th October, Mallorca
  • 8. Observation – field data Ag. Galicia SIMRIA Ag.Oeste SIMTEJO SANEST Ag.Sto.André ICREW Ag.Algarve ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd ­ 24th October, Mallorca
  • 9. Observation – stations, buoys Instituto Hidrográfico buoys which are setup in  harbours (Lisbon, Sines, Leixões, Oporto) that  provide waves direction and intensity; Meteorological stations (Guia de Cascais,  Nazaré); •Buoys which measure freshwater inputs (Tagus,  Mondego, Guadiana, INAG data); ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd ­ 24th October, Mallorca
  • 10. Observation – remote­sensing data •MODIS •SeaWifs ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd ­ 24th October, Mallorca
  • 11. Regional scale models Local models need regional models • ocean and atmospheric circulation • waves ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd ­ 24th October, Mallorca
  • 12. Regional scale models Wave model WW3, 3  day forecast.  objective: couple to  swan into local models  ­ harbours. ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd ­ 24th October, Mallorca
  • 13. Regional scale models Hydrodynamical operational modeling of portuguese coast. • PSY2V2 solution • resolution: 1/15º ~ 5­7 km • 43 z­coordinate layers • SLA, SST and in­situ data assimilation • Presents mediterranean outflow,  meddy permitting (Drillet 2005) • ECMWF atmospheric forcing • 14 days forecast • NO TIDE ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd ­ 24th October, Mallorca
  • 14. Regional scale models Hydrodynamical operational modeling of portuguese coast. •3 Domains: 81, 27 and 9 km •25 vertical levels •GFS forcings •Winds •Latent heat •Sensible heat •Precipitation •Cloud cover •7 days forecasts­ ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd ­ 24th October, Mallorca
  • 15. Regional scale models Hydrodynamical operational modeling of portuguese coast. •One 2D domain (for  recreating tide) •3 Domains: 81, 27 and 9 km •Two 3D Domains:  •25 vertical levels 0.06º and 0.02º •GFS forcings •42 layers •Winds •ETOPO2’ baseline  •Latent heat data interpolation •Sensible heat •2D and 3D [­12.6º,  •Precipitation ­5.5º]Ex[34.4º 45º]N •Cloud cover•[­11.2º, ­8.8º]Ex[37.5º  •7 days forecasts­ 40.3º]N ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd ­ 24th October, Mallorca
  • 16. Regional scale models Hydrodynamical operational modeling of portuguese coast. •3 Domains: 81, 27 and 9 km •25 vertical levels •GFS forcings •Winds •Latent heat •Sensible heat •Precipitation •Cloud cover •7 days forecasts­ ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd ­ 24th October, Mallorca
  • 17. Regional scale models Hydrodynamical operational modeling of portuguese coast. •3 Domains: 81, 27 and 9 km •25 vertical levels •GFS forcings •Winds •Latent heat •Sensible heat •Precipitation •Cloud cover •7 days forecasts­ ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd ­ 24th October, Mallorca
  • 18. Remote sensing comparison 9 June 2007 MOHID MODIS ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd ­ 24th October, Mallorca
  • 19. Remote sensing comparison 10 June 2007 MOHID MODIS ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd ­ 24th October, Mallorca
  • 20. Remote sensing comparison 11 June 2007 MOHID MODIS ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd ­ 24th October, Mallorca
  • 21. Remote sensing comparison 12 June 2007 MOHID MODIS ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd ­ 24th October, Mallorca
  • 22. Buoys comparison Surface velocity modulus Buoy data kindly provided by  Puertos del Estado ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd ­ 24th October, Mallorca
  • 23. Buoys comparison Water level from  4.5 from a tidal station  4 in pink located at  3.5 Water level (m) 3 37º57’ ºN and  2.5 8º55’ ºW in Sines  2 1.5 and illustrated in  1 0.5 the the  0 bathymetries  09­02­ 11­02­ 13­02­ 15­02­ 17­02­ 19­02­ 21­02­ 23­02­ 25­02­ 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 figure. Water level  12:00 12:00 12:00 12:00 12:00 12:00 12:00 12:00 12:00 from the pre­ Time operational model  in forecast mode  Sines tide gauge Operational model for the same  location. The  correlation is 0.99  + 5e­3 and the  RMSE is 0.19 +  5e­3 m. ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd ­ 24th October, Mallorca
  • 24. Integrated results mid­October 2006 mid­february  2007 Horizontal distribution of velocity ensemble average at 2 m depth for the top panel and 645 m depth for the  bottom panel. Two main branches of the MW spreading pathways are well pronounced in the bottom  panel. the poleward slope current branch, and the cyclonic recirculation flowing southward. ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd ­ 24th October, Mallorca
  • 25. Integrated results mid­October 2006 mid­february  2007 Colour map and  contours of salinity  distribution ensemble  average at 1000 m  depth ranging in interval [35.6 36.2]  showing the spreading  pathway of the MO off  western Iberia.  Contour lines are  valued [35.6; 35.78; 35.84;  35.9; 35.96; 36.02;  36.08; 36.14; 36.2] ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd ­ 24th October, Mallorca
  • 26. Integrated results mid­October 2006 mid­february  2007 On the left panel, salinity contours of [35.5; 35.52; 35.83; 35.94; 36.05; 36.16; 36.27; 36.38; 36.49; 36.6] and color  maps in the interval [35.5 36.6]. On the right panel, ensemble averages of zonal velocity contours of [­.15; ­.12; ­.09;  ­.06; ­.03; 0; .03; .06; .09;.12; .15] ms­1 and color maps in the interval [­.15 .15] ms­1. The plots are meridional sections  in the Gulf of Cadiz at longitude 7.83 ºW. The MO shifts from a bottom current to a buoyancy driven intermediate depth  jet current. The cross sections are shown in the bathymetries figure. ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd ­ 24th October, Mallorca
  • 27. Results avaible on opendap
  • 28. Local scale models: Tagus estuary Discharges from rivers / WWTP’s Nazaré­Setúbal (∆x = 2km) Tagus estuary (∆x = 300 m) Nazaré – Setúbal (2D) -Hydrodynamics Tagus (2D) WWTP Discharge Tagus (3D-11 levels) -Hydrodynamics -Hydrodynamics -Water quality Cascais (∆x = 35 m) Guia (3D-11 levels) Carc. - P. Arcos (2D) -Hydrodynamic Carc. - P. Arcos (3D-11levels) -Hidrodynamics -Initial Dilution (Mohid Jet)+ -Hydrodynamics - Dispersion (Lagrangian)
  • 29. Local scale models: Tagus estuary
  • 30. Local scale models: Tagus estuary
  • 31. Local scale models: Tagus estuary
  • 32. Estoril coast – process studies ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd ­ 24th October, Mallorca
  • 33. Tagus estuary – process studies Phytoplankton Ammonia Nitrate Inorganic Phosphorus FEBRUARY JUNE ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd ­ 24th October, Mallorca
  • 34. Foz do Arelho: lagoon + submarine outfall
  • 35. Validation of coastal model 4.0 Field Data 3.5 MOHID Model 3.0 Level [m] 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 22­Nov­00 22­Nov­00 22­Nov­00 22­Nov­00 22­Nov­00 23­Nov­00 23­Nov­00 23­Nov­00 23­Nov­00 23­Nov­00 24­Nov­00 PENICHE Time  (Days) Average Value Root Mean Correlation (x ± σ) (m) Square Error Bias Tidal Stations Coefficient (RMSE) (m) Model Data (R) (m) 2.081±0.92 Peniche 1.990±0.894 0.985 1.367 0.100 0 2.030±0.74 Cascais 2.030±0.735 0.992 0.4124 0.020 2 CASCAIS
  • 36. Obidos lagoon model validation BICO DOS CORVOS 4.0 Field Data MOHID Model 3.5 3.0 Level [m] 2.5 2.0 1.5 24­Nov­00 24­Nov­00 24­Nov­00 25­Nov­00 25­Nov­00 26­Nov­00 26­Nov­00 26­Nov­00 Time (Days) Average Value Root Mean Correlation Tidal Gauge (x ± σ) (m) Square Error Bias Coefficient Stations (RMSE) (m) Model Data (R) (m) Cais da Foz do 2.667±0.23 2.691±0.290 0.987 0.081 0.025 Arelho 0 Bico dos 2.719±0.29 2.695±0.266 0.988 0.072 0.024 Corvos 9 2.706±0.29 Barrosa 2.704±0.273 0.989 0.062 0.001 9
  • 37. Obidos lagoon model validation 2.0 TOPO DO CANAL Field Data MOHID Model 1.6 Intensity [m/s] 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 29­Nov­00 29­Nov­00 29­Nov­00 29­Nov­00 29­Nov­00 29­Nov­00 29­Nov­00 29­Nov­00 29­Nov­00 Time (Days) Average Value Root Mean Currents Correlation (x ± σ) (m/s) Square Error transects coefficient Bias (m/s) (RMSE) stations Model Data (R) (m/s) Cais da Foz do 0.427±0.13 0.382±0.086 0.891 0.090 -0.045 Arelho 0 0.974±0.37 Topo do Canal 1.103±0.445 0.904 0.276 0.129 2 0.392±0.11 Barra 0.307±0.097 0.957 0.098 -0.086 9
  • 38. COASTAL AREA MODEL VALIDATION 50 20 6 Field Data 40 4 MOHID Model 30 North­South wind component  10 North­South current component North­South component 2 20 0 0 10 0  [cm/s] [m/s] ­10 ­2  [cm/s] ­40 ­30 ­20 ­10 ­10 0 10 20 30 40 ­20 ­4 ­20 ­6 ­30 ­30 ­8 ­40 ­40 ­10 ­50 ­50 ­12 15­Nov­00 15­Nov­00 15­Nov­00 15­Nov­00 16­Nov­00 16­Nov­00 16­Nov­00 16­Nov­00 16­Nov­00 17­Nov­00 West­East component  [cm/s] Field Data MOHID Model Wind Average Value Correlation Root Mean Square (x ± σ) (cm/s) Bias Depth (m) Coefficient Error (RMSE) (cm/s) Model Data (R) (cm/s) -10.730 5 -13.380±8.389 0.711 10.109 3.007 ±10.528
  • 39. Fo z d Animação o  Ar el ho  b ea ch
  • 40. Nesting  Galician  coast  (2D) Rias Baixas  (3D – 20 layers) Rias de Vigo and  Pontevedra (3D – 13 layers) ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd ­ 24th October, Mallorca
  • 41. Nesting  New sub­domains with  grid resolution = 100m Ria de Vigo  (inner side) Baiona Bay
  • 42. Arrows every 200 m Nesting  Ria de Vigo (3D – 8 layers)  grid resolution = 100m Detailed  view Extended view Arrows every 400 m ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd ­ 24th October, Mallorca
  • 43. Nesting  Arrows every 200 m Baiona (3D – 8 layers)  grid resolution = 100m ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd ­ 24th October, Mallorca
  • 44. MaBenE – Rafts’ polygon scale ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd ­ 24th October, Mallorca
  • 45. MaBenE – Rafts’ polygon scale 3.5 km 5 km ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd ­ 24th October, Mallorca
  • 46. MaBenE – Rafts’ polygon scale Model 3­4 meters layer  EBB 2­4 hours after  high tide ADCP (GKSS) ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd ­ 24th October, Mallorca
  • 47. ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd ­ 24th October, Mallorca
  • 48. Products Operational systems Large scale models  Software  (meteo, ocean, waves) (model, tools, documentation) Regional models  Base knowledge (meteo, ocean, waves) Need for  End­user implementation Monitoring  Local models  system (meteo, ocean, waves) Observations – field  data Results ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd ­ 24th October, Mallorca
  • 49. Thank you ECOOP, POL Workshop, 22nd ­ 24th October, Mallorca

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