A simple pre-operational model for the portuguese coast


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This is the slide version of the poster with the same title I presented at the European Geosciences Union in Vienna last month (EGU'07) under the Operational Oceanography session

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A simple pre-operational model for the portuguese coast

  1. 1. Assessing the quality of a pre-operational model for the Portuguese coast Riflet G.1, P.C. Leitão2, A.R. Trancoso3, A. Canas1, R. Fernandes1, L. Fernandes1, A.C. Garcia1, R.J. Neves1 1 – MARETEC, DEMecanica, Instituto Superior Técnico, 1049-001 Lisbon, Portugal (guillaume.maretec@ist.utl.pt) 2 – HIDROMOD, Av Manuel da Maia 36 3-e, 1000-201 Lisbon, Portugal (hidromod@hidromod.com) 3 – METEO-IST, Secção Energia e Ambiente, DEMecanica, Instituto Superior Técnico, 1049-001 Lisbon, Portugal (ana.rosa.maretec@ist.utl.pt) April 16th 2007 G. Riflet, EGU symposium Vienna 2007 1
  2. 2. Introduction • Does the downscaling of large-scale oceanic forecasting solutions allow a reliable way for forcing operational regional and local models? Does it improves the local solutions results? If so, how can we quantify it? These are the fundamental questions that this work tries to tackle partially. • A pre-operational system was implemented at MARETEC that performs weekly hydrodynamic forecasts of the Portuguese coast and of the Estremadura region. It downscales the Mercator-Océan PSY2V2R1 1/15º solution to a 0.06º and 0.02º domains using the MOHID water modeling system. Tide forced from the FES2004 tidal atlases was added, and atmospheric forcing from a regional scale forecasting system was provided by Meteo-IST for surface forcing. Also, a freshwater discharge was estimated based on a 2006 flow time series from Instituto da Água for simulating the Tagus estuary input. •The results are analyzed against published evidences, and against tidal station data and SST remote sensing imagery. April 16th 2007 G. Riflet, EGU symposium Vienna 2007 2
  3. 3. Models Setup •Three domains are modeled: a 2D barotropic model of the west Iberia region bounded by [13.7 5.3] ºW x [33.5 46.1] ºN; a 3D baroclinic model of the west Iberia region, nested to the latter, bounded by [12.6 5.5] ºW ; and a 3D baroclinic model of the Estremadura region bounded by [11.2 8.8] ºW x [40.3 37.5] ºN and nested to the latter. •Each domain radiates the water level using a Flather radiation scheme, except for the 2D barotropic model that radiates the level using a Blumberg radiation scheme. •The 3D models initial S and T are directly interpolated from the Mercator-Océan solution. •Atmospheric forcing is imposed with latent and sensible heat fluxes, solar radiation, infrared radiation, atmospheric pressure, evaporation and precipitation coming from the MM5 results from the Meteo-IST model. •The 2D barotropic model has the level forced at the open boundaries by the FES2004 tidal atlas solution. The nested models On the left panel, the Western Iberia coast baroclinic model bathymetry. Bounded by [12.6 are forced at the open boundaries with S, T, u, v and η from the father 5.5] ºW x [34.4 45.0] ºN. 0.06º spatial resolution, model and/or the Mercator-Océan solution. labeled P. On the right panel, Portugal continental •A sponge layer is applied near the open boundaries where a Flow central regional coastal model bathymetry. Relaxation Scheme is employed and a higher horizontal turbulent Bounded by [11.2 8.8] ºW x [40.3 37.5] ºN. 0.02º viscosity is applied. spatial resolution, labeled C. Baseline data from ETOPO 2’. April 16th 2007 G. Riflet, EGU symposium Vienna 2007 3
  4. 4. Results The application is run weekly and provides 5 day forecast for the three-dimensional hydrodynamic circulation off the coast of Portugal. Results since November 2006 are available at http://data.mohid.com served by an Opendap server and a Live Access Server (LAS). The results shown are either instantaneous values, either a statistical average performed over the available set of weekly runs. Instantaneous results seem to evidence that the finer-scale model is more prone to generate internal waves. To the left, the interpolated temperature fields of the Mercator solution. To the right, the super-position of the temperature fields of the C model over the P model. The temperature scale's interval is [14.5 20.0] ºC at the surface (top) and [12.0 14.7] ºC at 250 m (bottom). The graphical tool is Mohid GIS. April 16th 2007 G. Riflet, EGU symposium Vienna 2007 4
  5. 5. Results The Mediterranean Waters (MW) spreading pathway are evidenced in currents at intermediate depth and with the salinity distribution at 1000 m. The models averaged results seem realistic when compared with observations reported in the literature. Color map and contours of salinity distribution ensemble average at 1000 m depth ranging in interval [35.6 36.2] showing the spreading pathway of the MO off western Iberia. Contour lines are valued [35.6; 35.78; 35.84; 35.9; 35.96; 36.02; 36.08; 36.14; 36.2] Horizontal distribution of velocity ensemble average at 2 m depth for the top panel and 645 m depth for the bottom panel. Tw o main branches of the MW spreading pathw ays are w ell pronounced in the bottom panel. the polew ard slope current branch, and the cyclonic recirculation f low ing southw ard. April 16th 2007 G. Riflet, EGU symposium Vienna 2007 5
  6. 6. Results The Mediterranean outflow (MO) in the model shifts from a bottom current to a buoyancy driven intermediate depth jet current in the Gulf of Cadiz at about 8 ºW. This is a known realistic scenario. On the left, ensemble averages of meridional velocity contours of 0.1 ms-1 apart and color maps in the interval [-.1 .1] ms-1 are shown. Positive velocities are equatorward and negative velocities are poleward. On the right, ensemble On the left panel, salinity contours of [35.5; 35.52; 35.83; 35.94; 36.05; averages of salinity contours of 36.16; 36.27; 36.38; 36.49; 36.6] and color maps in the interval [35.5 36.6]. [35.6; 35.66; 35.72; 35.78; 35.84; 35.90; 35.96; 36.02; On the right panel, ensemble averages of zonal velocity contours of [-.15; 36.08; 36.14; 36.2] and color maps in the interval [35.6 36.2] -.12; -.09; -.06; -.03; 0; .03; .06; .09;.12; .15] ms -1 and color maps in the are shown. The plots are zonal sections of the Portuguese interval [-.15 .15] ms -1. The plots are meridional sections in the Gulf of coast at 40.95 ºN for the top panels; and 38.25ºN for the Cadiz at longitude 7.83 ºW. The MO shifts from a bottom current to a bottom panels. The cross sections are shown in the buoyancy driven intermediate depth jet current. The cross sections are bathymetries figure. shown in the bathymetries figure. April 16th 2007 G. Riflet, EGU symposium Vienna 2007 6
  7. 7. Results Quality assessment can be performed with instantaneous results 4.5 4 agains tidal stations and remote-sensing SST imagery. 3.5 3 2.5 Water level (m) 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 09-02- 11-02- 13-02- 15-02- 17-02- 19-02- 21-02- 23-02- 25-02- 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 12:00 12:00 12:00 12:00 12:00 12:00 12:00 12:00 12:00 Time Sines tide gauge Operational model Water level from from a tidal station in pink located at 37º57’ ºN and 8º55’ ºW in Sines and illustrated in the the bathymetries figure. Water level from the pre-operational model in forecast mode for the same location. The correlation is 0.99 + 5e-3 and the RMSE is 0.19 + 5e-3 m. The Mercator solution sea surface temperature daily average on the September 9th 2006, at the left. A NOAA sea surface temperature satellite image taken during the same day, at the middle. At the right, the Mohid instantaneous solution taken the same day at 19h00 hours. The temperature scale is set to [17ºC 22ºC]. Note that the color palettes diverge between the satellite images and the model's fields. The graphical tool used is Mohid GIS. April 16th 2007 G. Riflet, EGU symposium Vienna 2007 7
  8. 8. Conclusions Future work • Perform calculus continuation instead of •The MW main spreading pathways seem weekly spin-up; realistic when compared with observations. Two • Calculate mass fluxes in predefined cross- expected main branches are reproduced by our sections; model. • Calculate TKE; •The salinity spreading pattern at 1000 m depth • Acquire SST from remote-sensing data in our model is typical of other models findings. (MODIS, MERIS); •The regional model with finer resolution seems • Gather available CTD, ADCP and RAFOS to be internal-wave permitting. data in order to compare with the models •The tidal forcing with FES2004 provides an results; added value to the Mercator-Océan solution. • Perform further analysis of the models •Comparison with SST imagery seems results against in-situ tidal stations data, promising in order to assess the quality of the • Implement the data plotting of the results operational model. operationally; • Eventually, implement a digital filter for the calculation of stable non-trivial initial conditions. April 16th 2007 G. Riflet, EGU symposium Vienna 2007 8
  9. 9. References • Blayo E. and L. Debreu (2005). Revisiting open boundary conditions from the point of view of characteristic variables. Ocean Modelling 9 231– 252, 2005. • Martins, F., R. Neves, P.C. Leitão, and A. Silva, 3D modeling in the Sado estuary using a new generic coordinate approach, oceanologica Acta, 24, S51-S62, 2001. • Flather, R.A., A tidal model of the northwest European continental shelf, Mem. Soc. R. Sci. Liege, 6 (10), 141-164, 1976. • Blumberg, A.F. and L.H. Kantha, 1985. Open boundary condition for circulation models. J. of Hydraulic Engineering, ASCE, 111, 237-2555. • Martinsen, E.A., and H. Engedahl., Implementation and testing of a lateral boundary scheme as an open boundary condition in a barotropic ocean model, Coastal Engineering, 11, 603-627, 1987. • Drillet, Y., Bourdallé-Badie, R., Siefridt, L., Le Provost, C., 2005, Meddies in the Mercator North Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea eddy-resolving model, Journal of Geophysical Research, VOL. 110, C03016, doi:10.1029/2003JC002170. • Stevens I., M. Hamann, J. A. Johnson and A.F.G. Fiúza, 2000, Comparisons between a fine resolution model and observations in the Iberian shelf-slope region. Journal of Marine Systems, 26 53–74, • Reynaud T., P. Legrand, H. Mercier, and B. Barnier. A new analysis of hydrographicdata in the Atlantic and its application to an inverse modelling study. International WOCE Newsletter, 32:29-31, 1998. • Coelho H. S., R. J. J. Neves, M. White, P. C. Leitão, and A. J. Santos. A model for ocean circulation on the iberian coast. Journal of Marine Systems, 32(1):153-179,2002. • Bower S. , N. Serra, and I. Ambar. Structure of the mediterranean undercurrent and mediterranean water spreading around the southwestern iberian peninsula. Journal of Geophysical Research, 107(C10), 2002. • Iorga M. C. and M. S. Lozier. Signatures of the Mediterranean outflow from a North Atlantic climatology 1. Salinity and density ¯elds. Journal of Geophysical Research, 104(C11):25985-26010, 1999 • Papadakis M. P., E. P. Chassignet, and R. W. Hallberg. Numerical simulations of the mediterranean sea outflow: impact of the entrainment parameterization in an isopycnic coordinate ocean model. Ocean Modelling, 5(4):325-356, 2003. Acknowledgements The authors w ish to thank Mercator-Océan for providing the ocean forecasts and reanalysis (http.//w w w .mercator-ocean.fr/), Meteo-IST (in particular J. J. Delgado Domingos) for providing the atmospheric forecasts (http.//meteo.ist.utl.pt/), Hidromod, for providing logistical support and in-situ data (http.//w w w .hidromod.pt/). This w ork is funded by the EU in the framew ork of FP6 GMES activities according the terms of the contract SST4-CT-2005-012336 (INSEA project). This w ork is funded by the EU in the framew ork of INTERREG III-B Espaço-Atlântico activities (EROCIPS and 207-EASY projects). G. Riflet, A.R. Trancoso and A. Canas acknow ledge grants SFRH/BD/17631/2004, SFRH/BD/17957/2004 and SFRH/BD/14185/2003, respectively, from Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia. April 16th 2007 G. Riflet, EGU symposium Vienna 2007 9