From Polysilicon to Power: The Solar Market in 2011 and Beyond
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Following a year of record growth in 2010, the solar industry is facing another period of uncertainty. In this session, GTM Research’s Solar Analyst Team will discuss the implications of their ...

Following a year of record growth in 2010, the solar industry is facing another period of uncertainty. In this session, GTM Research’s Solar Analyst Team will discuss the implications of their research findings on corporate strategy to help your company succeed in the increasingly dynamic solar market.

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From Polysilicon to Power: The Solar Market in 2011 and Beyond Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Greentech Media’s2011 Solar Summit
  • 2. From Polysilicon to Power: The Solar Market in 2011 and Beyond Greentech Media Solar Summit Shayle Kann, Managing Director, Solar Shyam Mehta, Senior Analyst, Solar MarketsCOPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!
  • 3. Agenda   Global PV Demand   2010 Recap   2011 Outlook   U.S. Market Focus   Global PV Supply   The Industrial Age   Manufacturing Costs: Current Benchmarks, Evolution, Revolution   Supply-Demand Dynamics   Thin Film PV: Time to Taste the Pudding   Supplier Competitive Positioning   Where is U.S. PV Manufacturing Heading?   Q&ACOPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!
  • 4. Global PV Demand: A Series of Gold Rushes Source: GTM ResearchCOPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! 4  
  • 5. Germany in 2011? Look at 2010 Source: Bundesnetzagentur, GTM ResearchCOPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!
  • 6. Are Other Gold Rush Markets Brewing?COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!
  • 7. 2011 and Beyond: Global Market Outlook Source: GTM Research Source: GTM Research   Current 2011 estimate: 20.6 GW (17% growth), but significant uncertainty   2012: flat given clamp-down of incentives in key FiT markets, followed by 12-20% growth in 2013-2015   Key trend is demand diffusionCOPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!
  • 8. U.S. Market Focus Source: GTM Research/SEIA® U.S. Solar Market Insight TM: 2010 Year-in-ReviewCOPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!
  • 9. The Growing Importance of the U.S. Market Source: GTM ResearchCOPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! 9  
  • 10. U.S. States With >10 MW of PV Installations, 2007 NJ   NV   CO   CA  Source: GTM ResearchCOPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!
  • 11. U.S. States With >10 MW of PV Installations, 2010 MA   OR   NY   PA   NJ   OH   NV   IL   CO   CA   NC   AZ   NM   TX   FL   HI  Source: GTM ResearchCOPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!
  • 12. U.S. Market in 2010 - by State & Segment Pie Size Represents Total Residential 258.9 Capacity Installed (MWdc) MWdc Non-Residential 2.2 MWdc UtilityCOPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!
  • 13. Will the Utility Market Take Over? Source: GTM ResearchCOPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! 13  
  • 14. U.S. Utility PV Project Developer Taxonomy   Foreign Entrants European PV Developers Utility Affiliates Vertically Integrated Manufacturers Upstream Entrants Traditional Entrants Pure Play U.S. PV Developers Independent Power Producers Divisions Joint Ventures of Other Corporate Parents Corporate Entrants JV EntrantsCOPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!
  • 15. Final Thoughts: We Have a Long Way to Go Source:  DOE,  GTM  Research  COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! 15  
  • 16. How a PV Module is Born Polysilicon Wafer Cell ModuleCOPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!
  • 17. PV Enters the Industrial Age Factories w/capacity above 1 GW   2009: 1 wafer, 1 cell, 1 module   2013: 22 wafer, 15 cell, 11 module   Vertically integrated wafer-cell- module facility is dominant model of the “gigawatt fab”   Distributed module assembly model still favored by many   Polysilicon: Absence of sustained bottleneck, capital risk, technical challenges  limited instances of integration   How important is downstream integration at this scale?COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!
  • 18. Manufacturing Costs: Current Benchmarks China Vertically Integrated (wafer-module) Crystalline Si Polysilicon Wafer Cell Module $0.42/W $0.28/W $0.23/W $0.30/W $1.23/W $60/kg at 7g/Wp, low-cost location, 750 MW scale, full utilization, 14% efficiency CdTe (First Solar) Materials Depreciation Labor Utilities, Overhead $0.47/W $0.11/W $0.06/W $0.11/W $0.75/W Low-cost location, 1 GW scale, 90%+ yield, high throughput, full utilization, 11.5% efficiencyCOPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!
  • 19. Manufacturing Costs: Evolution   Need to distinguish b/w incremental improvements (current technology) vs. step- function reduction (innovation)   Incremental drivers:   Cheaper poly (~$35/kg)   Thinner wafers (~145 ųm)   Efficiency up (~15%)   Vertical integration (wafer-module)   Scale-up (2 GW+)   Threats to cost reductions:   Poly bottlenecks   Commodity prices (Al, Ag, glass)   Cost/efficiency trade-offs   When does existing technology hit a plateau?COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!
  • 20. Manufacturing Costs: Revolution What technologies could drive step- function cost reductions in $/kWh? Polysilicon   FBR (MEMC, REC)   UMG (CaliSolar) Wafer   Diamond saws   Ultra-thin wafers (< 100 ųm)   Kerfless wafering (SiGen, 1366) Cell   N-type (Yingli, Suniva)   Ion implantation (Suniva)   Back-contact (Trina)   Selective emitter (Solarfun, Schott)   Other (PERL, EWT, MWT, Silicon ink) Module   High-efficiency glass (Corning)   Ultra-thin/reflective encapsulant (DuPont)   Glass-free front sheet (Saint-Gobain)COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!
  • 21. Supply-Demand Dynamics   Wafer/cell – need to distinguish between low-cost and high- cost supply; module – bankable supply vs. other   Acute undersupply of low-cost cells, wafers, and bankable low- cost modules in 2010; likely to continue in H1 2011 and gate demand; pricing, availability will be tight   H2 2011 more uncertain, but likely to see price drops, higher availability of modules   2012: The return of oversupply? Price reductions required to trigger demand elasticity?COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!
  • 22. Thin Film PV: Time to Taste the Pudding   2010 TF production: 1,454 MW CdTe, 1,543 MW a-Si, 395 MW CIGS/CIS   Stable c-Si pricing, strong demand drive high utilizations, cost reductions at 25-75 MW capacity   Multiple hurdles to cross to scale successfully:   Process optimized for high yield/throughput   Capital for expansion   Downstream partners   Product reliability (product bankability)   Financing partners (supplier bankability)   Who will drive the market?   CdTe: First Solar, Abound, GE   CIGS: Solar Frontier, Solibro, ~7 U.S. manufacturers   Amorphous Si: Sharp, ~20 Chinese producersCOPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!
  • 23. Supplier Competitive Positioning Canadian, Jinko, Solar Frontier SunPower Trina, Hanwha Yingli Suntech Sharp (tandem) First Solar REC (Singapore)COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! 23  
  • 24. Where is U.S. PV Manufacturing Headed? 2013 P Polysilicon   W     c -­‐Si  Wafer   C       c -­‐Si  Cell M c-­‐Si  Module   CdTe   CIGS   Amorphous  Si   i   Inverter  COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!
  • 25. Thank You!   Email: kann@gtmresearch.com mehta@gtmresearch.com   GTM Research: www.gtmresearch.com   SEIA/GTM Research U.S. Solar Market Insight: www.gtmresearch.com/solarinsightCOPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!