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ROBERT A. KNAKALChairman & Founding PartnerMassey Knakal Realty ServicesBACKGROUND:  • Wharton School of Business - 1984  ...
INVESTMENT SALESMARKET OVERVIEWROBERT A. KNAKAL
TABLE OF CONTENTS1. NEW YORK CITY OVERVIEW2. COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE METRICS  • Volume  • Value  • Distressed Assets  • Sec...
NEW YORK CITY COMMERCIAL PROPERTY SALES                             Top Brokerage Firms 2010                       Based o...
NEW YORK CITY COMMERCIAL PROPERTY SALES             Top Brokerage Firms 2001-2010                     Based on # of Transa...
CITYWIDE DOLLAR VOLUME                (AGGREGATE SALES PRICE)      2005 –2011, ALL SALES (IN BILLIONS)$70                 ...
NYC TOTAL SALE DOLLAR VOLUME1st Quarter 2011                   Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services
NYC TOTAL BUILDINGS SOLD6,000                         5,018                 4,8755,000        4,4434,000                  ...
% OF TOTAL STOCK SOLD3.50%                         3.04%                 2.96%3.00%        2.69%2.50%2.00%                ...
AVG. PRICE PER PROPERTY SOLD               (IN MILLIONS)$14.0                         $12.4$12.0$10.0             $9.1    ...
AVERAGE PPSFMANHATTAN – FROM PEAK TO 2009          -32%
AVERAGE PPSFMANHATTAN – FROM PEAK TO 2010          -38%
Why do people believe values    were rising in 2009?
Why do people believe values    were rising in 2009?  Core vs. Everything Else
Manhattan Leading the Way Expect:     •     +12% PPSF Basis Manhattan     •     Stabilization in Outer Boroughs
Why Are Values Rising?
Why Are Values Rising?1   Fundamentals Are Improving
Why Are Values Rising?1   Fundamentals Are Improving2   Supply / Demand Imbalance
Why Are Values Rising?1   Fundamentals Are Improving2   Supply / Demand Imbalance3   Interest Rates
Why Are Values Rising?1   Fundamentals Are Improving2   Supply / Demand Imbalance3   Interest Rates4   Financing is Availa...
2011 vs. 2010COMMERCIAL PROPERTY TYPES - MANHATTAN          Multi-Family                 Elevator   +18%                 W...
As we progress into 2011,    there are many reasons for:• Optimism• Pessimism              Half Full or Half Empty?
2011 and BEYOND10 THINGS TO KEEP AN EYE ON: 1. Unemployment          6. Housing Market 2. Corporate Profits     7. Inflati...
ROBERT A. KNAKALChairman & Founding PartnerMassey Knakal Realty Services     Massey Knakal Realty Services         275 Mad...
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The Glass Half Full - Robert Knakal

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Transcript of "The Glass Half Full - Robert Knakal"

  1. 1. ROBERT A. KNAKALChairman & Founding PartnerMassey Knakal Realty ServicesBACKGROUND: • Wharton School of Business - 1984 • Began Career 1984 – CB Richard Ellis • Massey Knakal Established 1988 BROKERAGE: • Over 1,150 Properties Sold • $7.4 Billion Aggregate Market Value • Two-Time Winner – Most Ingenious Deal of the Year • REBNY Lifetime Achievement Award
  2. 2. INVESTMENT SALESMARKET OVERVIEWROBERT A. KNAKAL
  3. 3. TABLE OF CONTENTS1. NEW YORK CITY OVERVIEW2. COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE METRICS • Volume • Value • Distressed Assets • Sector Performance3. OPTIMISM VS. PESSIMISM4. MACRO CONSIDERATIONS • Economic • Political
  4. 4. NEW YORK CITY COMMERCIAL PROPERTY SALES Top Brokerage Firms 2010 Based on # of Transactions (All Sales Over $500,000) # T ransactions T otal $ Volume 2010 2010 Massey Knakal Realty Services 215 $ 1,010,466,998 Marcus & Millichap 65 $ 191,126,513 Besen & Associates Inc. 63 $ 355,324,408 GFI Capital Resources Group, Inc. 45 $ 142,516,600 Rosewood Realty Group 43 $ 392,327,912 Eastern Consolidated 33 $ 407,713,629 Prudential Douglas Elliman 27 $ 310,502,475 CB Richard Ellis 25 $ 5,013,457,500 The Corcoran Group 19 $ 95,238,237 Newmark Knight Frank 17 $ 375,817,659 Greiner-Maltz Company, Inc. 14 $ 54,790,100 Kalmon Dolgin Affiliates, Inc. 14 $ 51,742,000 Eastdil S ecured 12 $ 3,074,835,000 Itzhaki Properties 12 $ 85,195,000 Time Equities, Inc. 10 $ 30,207,899 S Equities, LLC wig 9 $ 41,348,500 Angelo, Gordon & Co. 9 $ 8,851,775 Leslie J Garfield & Company . 8 $ 40,980,473 Jones Lang LaS alle 6 $ 856,500,000 Friedman-Roth Realty Corp. 6 $ 18,995,000 The Halstead Property Company 6 $ 18,882,550 City One Real Estate & Financing 6 $ 18,755,000 Winoker Realty Company, Inc. 6 $ 17,215,019 Murray Hill Properties LLC 5 $ 171,350,000 Cushman & Wakefield 4 $ 499,800,000 T otal Dollar Volume - (Brokers on Chart) 679 $ 13,283,940,247 T otal Dollar Volume - (All transactions tracked by CoStar Comps in 2010) 1058 $ 16,776,912,620
  5. 5. NEW YORK CITY COMMERCIAL PROPERTY SALES Top Brokerage Firms 2001-2010 Based on # of Transactions (All Sales) # T ransactions 2001-2010 Massey Knakal Realty Services 2,229 Besen & Associates Inc. 599 Eastern Consolidated 514 Marcus & Millichap 433 GFI Realty S ervices 421 Capin & Associates 259 CB Richard Ellis 184 Prudential Douglas Elliman 167 Cushman & Wakefield 153 Corcoran Group 145 Newmark Knight Frank 142 Lee Odell Real Estate Inc. 138 Itzhaki Properties 126 Greiner-Maltz Company of Long Island, Inc. 122 Kalmon Dolgin Affiliates Inc. 114 S holom & Zuckerbrot Realty Corp. 95 Eastdil Realty 93 S Equities, LLC. wig 64 S olar Realty Management Corp 62 Extreme Realty 55 WRA Properties 46 Rosewood Realty Group 43 Grubb & Ellis 40 GVA Worldwide, LLC. 37 John Anthony Group, Inc. 35 NAI Global 27 Other Brokerage Firms - Combined 309 T otal T ransaction Volume (Brokers on Charts) 6,652
  6. 6. CITYWIDE DOLLAR VOLUME (AGGREGATE SALES PRICE) 2005 –2011, ALL SALES (IN BILLIONS)$70 $62.2$60$50 $44.2$40 $32.6$30 $25.3$20 $14.5$10 $6.3 $3.9$0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services
  7. 7. NYC TOTAL SALE DOLLAR VOLUME1st Quarter 2011 Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services
  8. 8. NYC TOTAL BUILDINGS SOLD6,000 5,018 4,8755,000 4,4434,000 3,1443,0002,000 1,667 1,4361,000 433 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services
  9. 9. % OF TOTAL STOCK SOLD3.50% 3.04% 2.96%3.00% 2.69%2.50%2.00% 1.91%1.50% 1.01% 1.05%1.00% 0.87%0.50%0.00% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services
  10. 10. AVG. PRICE PER PROPERTY SOLD (IN MILLIONS)$14.0 $12.4$12.0$10.0 $9.1 $9.0 $8.0 $8.0 $7.3 $7.2 $6.0 $4.4 $4.0 $2.0 $0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services
  11. 11. AVERAGE PPSFMANHATTAN – FROM PEAK TO 2009 -32%
  12. 12. AVERAGE PPSFMANHATTAN – FROM PEAK TO 2010 -38%
  13. 13. Why do people believe values were rising in 2009?
  14. 14. Why do people believe values were rising in 2009? Core vs. Everything Else
  15. 15. Manhattan Leading the Way Expect: • +12% PPSF Basis Manhattan • Stabilization in Outer Boroughs
  16. 16. Why Are Values Rising?
  17. 17. Why Are Values Rising?1 Fundamentals Are Improving
  18. 18. Why Are Values Rising?1 Fundamentals Are Improving2 Supply / Demand Imbalance
  19. 19. Why Are Values Rising?1 Fundamentals Are Improving2 Supply / Demand Imbalance3 Interest Rates
  20. 20. Why Are Values Rising?1 Fundamentals Are Improving2 Supply / Demand Imbalance3 Interest Rates4 Financing is Available
  21. 21. 2011 vs. 2010COMMERCIAL PROPERTY TYPES - MANHATTAN Multi-Family Elevator +18% Walk-Up +13% Mixed-Use - 32% Retail +92% Office + 5% Office Condo +18% Hotel +15% Land - 15% Specialty Use + 7%
  22. 22. As we progress into 2011, there are many reasons for:• Optimism• Pessimism Half Full or Half Empty?
  23. 23. 2011 and BEYOND10 THINGS TO KEEP AN EYE ON: 1. Unemployment 6. Housing Market 2. Corporate Profits 7. Inflation 3. Banking 8. Fed Monetary Policy 4. Global Implications 9. Deleveraging 5. Supply vs. Demand 10. Deficits, Debt, Pensions
  24. 24. ROBERT A. KNAKALChairman & Founding PartnerMassey Knakal Realty Services Massey Knakal Realty Services 275 Madison Avenue New York, NY 10016 rknakal@masseyknakal.com
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