ROBERT A. KNAKALChairman & Founding PartnerMassey Knakal Realty ServicesBACKGROUND:  • Wharton School of Business - 1984  ...
NEW YORK CITY MULTI-FAMILYSALES MARKET OVERVIEWROBERT A. KNAKAL
CITYWIDE DOLLAR VOLUME                     (AGGREGATE SALES PRICE)        2005 –2011, ALL SALES Total            2005     ...
CITYWIDE DOLLAR VOLUME                (AGGREGATE SALES PRICE)      2005 –2011, ALL SALES (IN BILLIONS)$70                 ...
NYC TOTAL SALE DOLLAR VOLUME3rd QUARTER 2011                   Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services
CITYWIDE TURNOVER               (NUMBER OF PROPERTIES SOLD)     2005 –2011, ALL SALESTotal Market   2005    2006    2007  ...
NYC TOTAL BUILDINGS SOLD6,000                 4,875   5,0185,000        4,4434,000                                 3,1443,...
% OF TOTAL STOCK SOLD3.50%                2.96%   3.04%3.00%   2.69%2.50%                                1.91%2.00%1.50%  ...
AVG. PRICE PER PROPERTY SOLD         (IN MILLIONS)$14.0                      $12.4                                       $...
APARTMENT BUILDINGS WALK-UP and ELEVATOR SALES         (COMBINED)          # Buildings   # Units               $ Volume 20...
APARTMENT BUILDINGS    WALK-UP SALES2009                     # Buildings   # Units       $ Volume    Manhattan            ...
APARTMENT BUILDINGS    ELEVATOR SALES2009                     # Buildings   # Units       $ Volume    Manhattan           ...
MULTIFAMILY ANALYSIS                     CAP RATES    WALK-UP                                                      Change ...
MULTIFAMILY ANALYSIS                     GRM    WALK-UP                                                      Change from  ...
MULTIFAMILY ANALYSIS                     PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT    WALK-UP                                                 ...
MULTIFAMILY ANALYSIS     PRICE PER UNIT   WALK-UP                                                      Change from        ...
CAP RATES         MANHATTAN APARTMENT BUILDINGS (1984-2011)13%                                                            ...
WALK-UP CAP RATES                                       COMPARED TO GRM           MANHATTAN WALK-UP APARTMENT BUILDINGS (1...
ELEVATOR CAP RATES                                           COMPARED TO GRM      MANHATTAN ELEVATOR APARTMENT BUILDINGS (...
CAP RATES                                          COMPARED TO MORTGAGE RATES                MANHATTAN APARTMENT BUILDINGS...
NYC Market Update - Knakal
NYC Market Update - Knakal
NYC Market Update - Knakal
NYC Market Update - Knakal
NYC Market Update - Knakal
NYC Market Update - Knakal
NYC Market Update - Knakal
NYC Market Update - Knakal
NYC Market Update - Knakal
NYC Market Update - Knakal
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NYC Market Update - Knakal

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Opening presentation on the state of NYC Multifamily Market

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NYC Market Update - Knakal

  1. 1. ROBERT A. KNAKALChairman & Founding PartnerMassey Knakal Realty ServicesBACKGROUND: • Wharton School of Business - 1984 • Began Career 1984 – CB Richard Ellis • Massey Knakal Established 1988 BROKERAGE: • Over 1,175 Properties Sold • $7.8 Billion Aggregate Market Value • Two-Time Winner – Most Ingenious Deal of the Year • REBNY Lifetime Achievement Award
  2. 2. NEW YORK CITY MULTI-FAMILYSALES MARKET OVERVIEWROBERT A. KNAKAL
  3. 3. CITYWIDE DOLLAR VOLUME (AGGREGATE SALES PRICE) 2005 –2011, ALL SALES Total 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Market Q1 $4,687,088,438 $9,011,375,517 $20,113,620,906 $6,225,691,306 $1,876,791,798 $2,868,750,994 $4,007,498,481 Q2 $9,559,877,112 $10,405,687,994 $15,740,867,793 $8,244,255,279 $1,028,217,272 $3,534,753,921 $8,681,260,927 Q3 $8,247,073,803 $8,273,171,091 $11,800,478,891 $8,142,997,826 $1,685,574,291 $2,691,203,147 $6,503,948,793 $25.2 Q4 $10,109,336,284 $16,506,931,951 $14,537,251,297 $2,687,946,327 $1,500,606,697 $5,136,496,100 $12.6Total $32,603,375,638 $44,197,166,553 $62,192,218,888 $25,300,890,738 $6,091,190,058 $14,231,204,162 25,590,277,601* *Annualized Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services
  4. 4. CITYWIDE DOLLAR VOLUME (AGGREGATE SALES PRICE) 2005 –2011, ALL SALES (IN BILLIONS)$70 $62.2$60$50 $44.2$40 $32.6$30 $25.3 $25.6$20 $19.2 $14.2$10 $6.1$0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services
  5. 5. NYC TOTAL SALE DOLLAR VOLUME3rd QUARTER 2011 Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services
  6. 6. CITYWIDE TURNOVER (NUMBER OF PROPERTIES SOLD) 2005 –2011, ALL SALESTotal Market 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q1 964 1,320 1,353 951 289 443 495 Q2 1,154 1,284 1,385 938 413 428 505 Q3 1,259 1,149 1,242 680 353 377 548 $25.2 Q4 1,066 1,122 1,038 575 355 442 Total 4,443 4,875 5,018 3,144 1,410 1,690 2,064* *Annualized Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services
  7. 7. NYC TOTAL BUILDINGS SOLD6,000 4,875 5,0185,000 4,4434,000 3,1443,000 2,0642,000 1,690 1,410 1,5481,000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services
  8. 8. % OF TOTAL STOCK SOLD3.50% 2.96% 3.04%3.00% 2.69%2.50% 1.91%2.00%1.50% 1.16% 1.01%1.00% 0.87%0.50%0.00% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services
  9. 9. AVG. PRICE PER PROPERTY SOLD (IN MILLIONS)$14.0 $12.4 $12.4$12.0$10.0 $9.1 $8.0 $8.0 $7.3 $7.2 $6.0 $4.4 $4.0 $2.0 $0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services
  10. 10. APARTMENT BUILDINGS WALK-UP and ELEVATOR SALES (COMBINED) # Buildings # Units $ Volume 2009 467 10,504 $1.34 B 2010 546 15,849 $2.63 B1Q-3Q11 460 13,139 $3.46 BCHANGE* +12% +11% +75% *Annualized Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services
  11. 11. APARTMENT BUILDINGS WALK-UP SALES2009 # Buildings # Units $ Volume Manhattan 76 1,088 $ 252,563,208Northern Manhattan 42 1,039 $ 94,100,552 Bronx 57 1,635 $ 112,611,847 Brooklyn 132 1,317 $ 165,440,737 Queens 65 453 $ 73,075,375 TOTAL MARKET 372 5,532 $ 697,791,7192010 # Buildings # Units $ Volume Manhattan 74 983 $ 290,715,439Northern Manhattan 62 1,227 $ 119,251,275 Bronx 65 1,464 $ 98,038,423 Brooklyn 65 877 $ 195,924,468 Queens 149 1,551 $ 123,110,671 TOTAL MARKET 415 6,102 $ 827,040,2761Q-3Q 2011 # Buildings # Units $ Volume Manhattan 66 823 $ 296,229,000Northern Manhattan 49 818 $ 101,762,684 Bronx 42 1,008 $ 75,839,539 Brooklyn 150 1,995 $ 259,310,780 Queens 49 642 $ 87,310,391 *AnnualizedTOTAL MARKET 356 5,286 $ 819,452,394 Source: Massey Knakal CHANGE* +14% + 16% +32% Realty Services
  12. 12. APARTMENT BUILDINGS ELEVATOR SALES2009 # Buildings # Units $ Volume Manhattan 12 650 $ 239,675,000Northern Manhattan 22 615 $ 77,908,000 Bronx 34 2,009 $ 148,660,790 Brooklyn 22 1,192 $ 121,201,400 Queens 5 506 $ 54,792,500 TOTAL MARKET 95 4,972 $ 642,237,6902010 # Buildings # Units $ Volume Manhattan 24 2,459 $ 1,069,409,181Northern Manhattan 34 2,795 $ 315,576,019 Bronx 41 3,031 $ 229,261,142 Brooklyn 18 783 $ 105,152,500 Queens 14 679 $ 85,342,000 TOTAL MARKET 131 9,747 $ 1,804,740,8421Q-3Q 2011 # Buildings # Units $ Volume Manhattan 26 3,418 $ 2,066,883,641Northern Manhattan 10 235 $ 42,975,000 Bronx 30 1,888 $ 150,144,370 Brooklyn 26 1,380 $ 196,848,936 Queens 12 932 $ 180,803,247 *AnnualizedTOTAL MARKET 104 7,853 $ 2,637,655,194 Source: Massey Knakal CHANGE* +13% +7% + 95% Realty Services
  13. 13. MULTIFAMILY ANALYSIS CAP RATES WALK-UP Change from Change from 2007 2009 2010 2011 2010 2007 Manhattan 4.40% 5.46% 5.78% 5.20% -58 +80Northern Manhattan 5.43% 7.02% 7.52% 6.54% -98 +111 Bronx 7.45% 7.51% 8.08% 8.39% +31 +94 Brooklyn 5.91% 7.60% 7.17% 7.05% -12 +114 Queens 6.45% 6.72% 7.45% 6.80% -65 +35 ELEVATOR Change from Change from 2007 2009 2010 2011 2010 2007 Manhattan 3.18% 4.71% 4.80% 4.50% -30 +132Northern Manhattan 5.11% 5.53% 6.27% 5.88% -39 +77 Bronx 5.85% 7.84% 7.53% 7.25% -28 +140 Brooklyn 5.27% 6.14% 6.79% 6.03% -76 +76 Queens 5.32% 6.04% 6.08% 5.58% -50 +26 Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services
  14. 14. MULTIFAMILY ANALYSIS GRM WALK-UP Change from Change from 2007 2009 2010 2011 2010 2007 Manhattan 15.35 11.66 11.83 11.89 +0.06 -3.46Northern Manhattan 11.45 8.25 7.51 7.80 +0.29 -3.65 Bronx 7.81 7.16 6.59 6.42 -0.17 -1.39 Brooklyn 10.12 9.42 10.11 8.79 -1.32 -1.33 Queens 11.21 9.93 9.28 9.52 +0.24 -1.69 ELEVATOR Change from Change from 2007 2009 2010 2011 2010 2007 Manhattan 16.75 13.30 12.78 14.62 +1.84 -2.13Northern Manhattan 12.54 8.47 8.75 8.41 -0.34 -4.13 Bronx 8.45 6.94 7.25 6.99 -0.26 -1.46 Brooklyn 10.96 8.78 8.63 10.55 +1.92 -0.41 Queens 12.13 9.14 9.66 10.65 +0.99 -1.48 Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services
  15. 15. MULTIFAMILY ANALYSIS PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT WALK-UP Change from Change from 2007 2009 2010 2011 2010 2007 Manhattan $556 $505 $541 $592 +9% +6%Northern Manhattan $307 $161 $163 $211 +29% -31% Bronx $108 $88 $87 $97 +11% -10% Brooklyn $188 $160 $194 $163 -16% -13% Queens $220 $190 $202 $192 -5% -13% ELEVATOR Change from Change from 2007 2009 2010 2011 2010 2007 Manhattan $522 $434 $440 $628 +43% +20%Northern Manhattan $170 $124 $179 $166 -7% -2% Bronx $85 $69 $71 $84 +18% -1% Brooklyn $110 $126 $171 $145 -15% +32% Queens $117 $133 $176 $193 +10% +65% Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services
  16. 16. MULTIFAMILY ANALYSIS PRICE PER UNIT WALK-UP Change from 2009 2010 2011 2010 Manhattan $347,630 $373,315 $412,355 +10%Northern Manhattan $115,780 $104,627 $142,268 +37% Bronx $73,522 $73,578 $82,213 +12% Brooklyn $131,574 $132,876 $129,061 -3% Queens $143,450 $140,938 $142,519 +1% ELEVATOR Change from 2009 2010 2011 2010 Manhattan $355,181 $326,325 $583,265 +79%Northern Manhattan $92,733 $127,910 $182,811 +43% Bronx $70,643 $73,227 $84,343 +15% Brooklyn $129,672 $140,564 $176,425 +26% Queens $108,383 $133,986 $182,438 +37% Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services
  17. 17. CAP RATES MANHATTAN APARTMENT BUILDINGS (1984-2011)13% 12.34% WALK-UP12% 12.02% 11.54% 11.74% ELEVATOR 11.23% 10.83%11% 11.52% 10.67% 01-02 Current P 9.74% 10.02% Recession Recession R10% 10.31% 9.54% 10.13% 10.15% O 9.09% J 9.24% 8.92% 8.71% 9% 9.27% 9.25% 8.53% E 8.96% 8.22% 8.49% C 8.75% 8.52% 8.37% 7.92% T 8% 7.55% 7.58% E 7.75% 7.22% 7.50% D 7% 7.42% 7.45% 7.05% 7.19% 7.03% 6.27% 5.78% 6% 6.31% Major Tax 91-92 5.50% 5.20% 5.05% Code Change Recession 5% 4.75% 4.60% 4.50% 4.84% 5.00% 4.40% 4.52% 4.50% 4% 3.80% 3.90% 3.65% 3% 3.05% 2% 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services, Miller Cicero (2003-2008)
  18. 18. WALK-UP CAP RATES COMPARED TO GRM MANHATTAN WALK-UP APARTMENT BUILDINGS (1984-2011)16% 15.35% GRM 14.90% Major Tax 91-92 CAP RATE 14.25%14% Code Change Recession 13.80% 01-02 13.04% Recession 12.60% 12.34%12% 12.02% 11.74% 11.89% 11.87% 11.23% 10.67% 10.83% P10% 10.15% R 10.13% 9.32% 9.74% 9.25% 9.36% 9.58% O Current 9.09% 8.92% J 8.53% 8.49% 8.80% Recession 9.20% 8.85% 8.22% E 8.71%8% C 7.92% 7.50% 7.50% T 7.27% 6.89% 6.95% 7.37% 7.05% E 7.22% 7.19% D 5.93% 5.78%6% 6.02% 6.00% 5.31% 5.20% 4.52% 5.05% 4.73% 5.00% 4.50% 4.75% 4.60%4% 4.09% 4.40% 3.57%2% 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services, Miller Cicero (2003-2008)
  19. 19. ELEVATOR CAP RATES COMPARED TO GRM MANHATTAN ELEVATOR APARTMENT BUILDINGS (1984-2011)18% 17.10% 16.75% GRM 16.40%16% Major Tax 91-92 CAP RATE 16.00% Code Change Recession 14.62% 01-0214% 13.83% Recession 13.71% 12.74%12% 12.06% 12.06% 12.05% 11.52% 11.34% 11.54% P 11.55% 10.77% 10.75% R 10.52% 10.45% O 10.31% 10.15%10% 10.02% Current J 9.27% 9.54% 9.24% 9.05% Recession E 8.75% 8.54% 8.96% C 7.75%8% 8.52% 8.37% 7.92% T 7.55% 7.58% 7.31% 7.42% E 7.45% 6.70% D 7.03% 6.21% 6.27% 6.31%6% 5.60% 5.50% 5.25% 4.84% 4.52% 4.75% 3.90%4% 4.38% 3.80% 3.65% 4.50% 4.11% 3.05%2% 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services, Miller Cicero (2003-2008)
  20. 20. CAP RATES COMPARED TO MORTGAGE RATES MANHATTAN APARTMENT BUILDINGS (1984-2011) 14% ELEVATOR 12.34% 12.02% WALK-UP 12% 11.54% 11.74% 11.23% 10.83% P 11.52% 10.67% R 10.13% 9.74% O 10% 10.31% 10.02% 9.54% 9.09% 10.15% J 9.24% 8.92% 8.71% 8.53% 8.49% E 9.27% 9.25% 8.96% 8.22% C 8.75% 7.92% 8% 8.52% 7.55% 7.58% T 8.37% 7.22% 7.75% 7.50% E 7.05% 7.42% 7.45% 7.19% D 7.03% 6.27% 5.78% 6% 6.31% 5.50% 5.20% 5.05% 4.75% 4.60% 4.40%4.50% 5.00% 4.52% 4% 4.50% 3.65% 3.80% 3.90% 3.05% 2% 0% 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11Mortgage Rate 13.5213.2110.93 9.27 10.5010.85 9.96 9.67 8.37 7.92 6.94 9.25 7.12 7.80 7.06 6.79 8.17 7.12 6.87 5.73 5.45 5.52 6.11 6.30 6.02 5.89 4.86 4.36Elevator 11.5210.31 8.96 9.27 8.52 8.37 9.24 10.0211.5410.15 9.54 8.75 7.42 7.75 7.45 7.03 7.55 6.27 7.58 6.31 5.50 3.80 3.05 3.90 3.65 4.52 4.84 4.50Walk-Up 12.0211.2310.1310.67 9.09 8.71 9.74 10.8312.3411.74 9.25 8.92 8.53 8.22 7.92 8.49 7.19 7.22 7.50 7.05 5.00 4.75 4.60 4.40 4.50 5.05 5.78 5.20 Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services, Miller Cicero (2003-2008), Federal Reserve Bank

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