How Did We Get Here?

Matt Griffin
Pine Street Group
Via6
Via6
Via6
Mix of Inputs
• Personal experiences
• Assessment of the world 5-6 years ago
Bike Trip Around the World 1986-87
Interlaken Home 1977-2001
Seaboard 2001
Seaboard 2001
Manhattan 2006
NYC – Place to Hang Out
Community – Making Friends
5-6 Years Ago
• U.S running deficits – two wars
• Americans spending more than we make
• House appreciation taken as a giv...
World
•
•
•
•
•

Migration to cities
Jobs from intellectual capital
World is flat
Traffic
Energy costs
Financial Crisis
• Spend more than we make
• Pile up of debt
Financial Crisis
• Spend more than we make
• Pile up of debt
Mortgage availability
• Spend less than we make
• Lower cost...
US Household Debt as % of Disposable Income
Environmental
•
•
•
•
•
•

Green
Global warming
Energy efficiency
Density
Traffic
Tolls, carbon tax, MVET, gas tax
Work Force
•
•
•
•

Intellectual capital
Creative class
Shortage of talent
High tech talent is younger and more
mobile
Work Force
•
•
•
•

Intellectual capital
Creative class
Shortage of talent
High tech talent is younger and more
mobile
Yo...
Urban Centers Draw More Young-Educated Adults

In 2000, young adults with a four-year degree were about
61% more likely to...
Seattle
• Green
• Traffic (+ 520 & 99)
• Mass transit
Commute Seattle
Seattle
• Green
• Traffic (+ 520 & 99)
• Mass transit
Advance degrees
Education
U.S.
Bachelor’s degree or higher

Seattle

28%

56%

(persons age 25+, 2007-2011)

U.S. Census Bureau
Seattle
• Green
• Traffic (+ 520 & 99)
• Mass transit
• Advanced degrees
Higher Ed
• Shrinking families, more singles
U.S.

Seattle

People Living Alone

27%

41%

Age 18-64 (2011)

63%

74%

U.S. Census Bureau
Seattle
• Green
• Traffic (+ 520 & 99)
• Mass transit
• Advanced
• degrees
• Shrinking families, more singles
Pets
One Sea Change
What’s this mean for urban living?
• 25-40
• older
What’s this mean?
•
•
•
•

Own less
Live in less space
Walkability
Avoid that stinking, polluting, expensive
bummer
• Rent...
Economist 10/18/13 issue, US Driving
AAA ‘Your Driving Costs’ 2012
Cost to own and operate a vehicle in the U.S.

Based on
Driving 15,000
miles annually

Sedan...
WORLD

ENVIRONMENTAL

FINANCIAL

WORK FORCE
Result
•
•
•
•
•
•
•

Walkability
Borrow it or rent it
If not in my own place, nearby
City streets and hood as living room...
Social
•
•
•
•
•

Golf course for a café and pub
Third place
Ways to build community
Cul-de-sac and kids
Dog wash or nurse...
Older
• Is it much different?
• Flexibility
• Think younger
Via6
Via6
Via6
Via6
Via6
Via6
What could screw it up?
•
•
•
•
•
•

City doing stupid stuff with zoning
Cutting Metro funding
Not caring for infrastructu...
Matt Griffin: How Did We Get Here?
Matt Griffin: How Did We Get Here?
Matt Griffin: How Did We Get Here?
Matt Griffin: How Did We Get Here?
Matt Griffin: How Did We Get Here?
Matt Griffin: How Did We Get Here?
Matt Griffin: How Did We Get Here?
Matt Griffin: How Did We Get Here?
Matt Griffin: How Did We Get Here?
Matt Griffin: How Did We Get Here?
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Matt Griffin: How Did We Get Here?

  1. 1. How Did We Get Here? Matt Griffin Pine Street Group
  2. 2. Via6
  3. 3. Via6
  4. 4. Via6
  5. 5. Mix of Inputs • Personal experiences • Assessment of the world 5-6 years ago
  6. 6. Bike Trip Around the World 1986-87
  7. 7. Interlaken Home 1977-2001
  8. 8. Seaboard 2001
  9. 9. Seaboard 2001
  10. 10. Manhattan 2006
  11. 11. NYC – Place to Hang Out
  12. 12. Community – Making Friends
  13. 13. 5-6 Years Ago • U.S running deficits – two wars • Americans spending more than we make • House appreciation taken as a given
  14. 14. World • • • • • Migration to cities Jobs from intellectual capital World is flat Traffic Energy costs
  15. 15. Financial Crisis • Spend more than we make • Pile up of debt
  16. 16. Financial Crisis • Spend more than we make • Pile up of debt Mortgage availability • Spend less than we make • Lower cost/standard of living • Use less resources
  17. 17. US Household Debt as % of Disposable Income
  18. 18. Environmental • • • • • • Green Global warming Energy efficiency Density Traffic Tolls, carbon tax, MVET, gas tax
  19. 19. Work Force • • • • Intellectual capital Creative class Shortage of talent High tech talent is younger and more mobile
  20. 20. Work Force • • • • Intellectual capital Creative class Shortage of talent High tech talent is younger and more mobile Younger, college educated is more urban
  21. 21. Urban Centers Draw More Young-Educated Adults In 2000, young adults with a four-year degree were about 61% more likely to live in close-in urban neighborhoods than their less-educated counterparts. In 2011, they are about 94% more likely. USA Today
  22. 22. Seattle • Green • Traffic (+ 520 & 99) • Mass transit
  23. 23. Commute Seattle
  24. 24. Seattle • Green • Traffic (+ 520 & 99) • Mass transit Advance degrees
  25. 25. Education U.S. Bachelor’s degree or higher Seattle 28% 56% (persons age 25+, 2007-2011) U.S. Census Bureau
  26. 26. Seattle • Green • Traffic (+ 520 & 99) • Mass transit • Advanced degrees Higher Ed • Shrinking families, more singles
  27. 27. U.S. Seattle People Living Alone 27% 41% Age 18-64 (2011) 63% 74% U.S. Census Bureau
  28. 28. Seattle • Green • Traffic (+ 520 & 99) • Mass transit • Advanced • degrees • Shrinking families, more singles Pets
  29. 29. One Sea Change
  30. 30. What’s this mean for urban living? • 25-40 • older
  31. 31. What’s this mean? • • • • Own less Live in less space Walkability Avoid that stinking, polluting, expensive bummer • Rent vs. buy
  32. 32. Economist 10/18/13 issue, US Driving
  33. 33. AAA ‘Your Driving Costs’ 2012 Cost to own and operate a vehicle in the U.S. Based on Driving 15,000 miles annually Sedan Average SUV Minivan 4WD Cost Per Mile 59.6 cents 75.7 cents 63.4 cents Cost Per Year $8,946 $11,360 $9,504
  34. 34. WORLD ENVIRONMENTAL FINANCIAL WORK FORCE
  35. 35. Result • • • • • • • Walkability Borrow it or rent it If not in my own place, nearby City streets and hood as living room Social – maybe greater Trade – parking for Wi-Fi and cell Internet pipes – cable, cat X, etc.
  36. 36. Social • • • • • Golf course for a café and pub Third place Ways to build community Cul-de-sac and kids Dog wash or nursery
  37. 37. Older • Is it much different? • Flexibility • Think younger
  38. 38. Via6
  39. 39. Via6
  40. 40. Via6
  41. 41. Via6
  42. 42. Via6
  43. 43. Via6
  44. 44. What could screw it up? • • • • • • City doing stupid stuff with zoning Cutting Metro funding Not caring for infrastructure K-12 Higher Ed Etc.

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