Green Pearl Events Multifamily Investment Summit   Jason Bram Presentation
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Green Pearl Events Multifamily Investment Summit Jason Bram Presentation

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Green Pearl Events Multifamily Investment Summit Jason Bram Presentation

Green Pearl Events Multifamily Investment Summit Jason Bram Presentation

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    Green Pearl Events Multifamily Investment Summit   Jason Bram Presentation Green Pearl Events Multifamily Investment Summit Jason Bram Presentation Presentation Transcript

    • Overview of NYC's Economy Jason Bram, Federal Reserve Bank of New York December 3, 2009 The views expressed here are those of the presenter and do not necessarily represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.
    • Index of Coincident Economic Indicators Index: July 1992 = 100 Index: July 1992 = 100 170 170 NYC 160 160 150 150 140 140 NY 130 130 NJ 120 120 110 110 100 100 90 90 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Source: FRBNY Note: Shading represents local economic downturns.
    • Unemployment Rate: USA vs. Region Percent of Labor Force Percent of Labor Force 15 15 12 12 NYC 9 9 US NY 6 6 NJ 3 3 0 0 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 Source: NYS Dept. of Labor and FRBNY staff calculations Note: Shading represents U.S. recessions.
    • Private Sector Job Growth: U.S. and NYC Percent 12-Month Percent Change in Private Sector Employment Percent 8 8 6 6 U.S. NYC 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -4 -6 -6 -8 -8 1968 1976 1984 1992 2000 2008 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com
    • Finance Sector’s Share of NYC Employment and Earnings 40% Finance ex-Securities 35% Securities 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1972 1987 2000 2007 US 1972 1987 2000 2007 US 2007 2007 NYC Employment NYC Earnings
    • NYC Employment: Securities and All Other Thousands Thousands 3,300 220 NYC Securities Industry 3,200 200 Employment (left axis) 3,100 180 3,000 160 2,900 140 NYC Employment excluding 2,800 Securities 120 (right axis) 2,700 100 2,600 80 2,500 60 2,400 40 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Source: NYS Dept. of Labor and FRBNY staff calculations Note: Shading represents U.S. recessions.
    • NYC Employment Thousands Thousands 4,000 4,000 1969-1976 1989- 2001- 1992 2003 3,800 3,800 Total Employment 3,600 3,600 3,400 3,400 3,200 3,200 3,000 3,000 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 Source: NYS Dept. of Labor and FRBNY staff calculations Note: Shading represents local economic downturns.
    • NYC Employment Thousands Thousands 4,000 4,000 1969-1976 1989- 2001- 1992 2003 3,800 3,800 Total Employment 3,600 3,600 2001-2003 scenario 3,400 3,400 3,200 3,200 3,000 3,000 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 Source: NYS Dept. of Labor and FRBNY staff calculations Note: Shading represents local economic downturns.
    • NYC Employment Thousands Thousands 4,000 4,000 1969-1976 1989- 2001- 1992 2003 3,800 3,800 Total Employment 3,600 3,600 2001-2003 scenario 3,400 3,400 1989-1992 scenario 3,200 3,200 3,000 3,000 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 Source: NYS Dept. of Labor and FRBNY staff calculations Note: Shading represents local economic downturns.
    • Job Losses in Previous Major Financial Downturns (peak to trough) in New York City Decline in Decline in Decline in Total Downturn Securities Financial Sector Private-Sector Industry Employment Employment Employment August 1969 – 49,000 60,000 601,000 May 1976 (40%) (13%) (18%) September 1987 – 39,000 96,000 343,000 June 1993 (21%) (17%) (11%) December 2000 – 39,000 60,000 229,000 October 2003 (19%) (12%) (7%) March 2008 — 31,500 43,500 132,000 Oct.. 2009 (so far) (15%) (9%) (4%)
    • Annual Change in Real Earnings: NYC and U.S. 40% 40% NYC: Securities 30% 30% US: All 20% 20% Industries 10% 10% 0% 0% -10% -10% NYC: All Industries -20% -20% -30% -30% 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Source: BEA
    • House and Apartment Prices: U.S. and Region 4-Quarter % Change 4-Quarter % Change 50 50 40 40 30 30 House Price Index: Avg. Apartment Price: NY Metro Manhattan 20 20 10 10 0 0 House Prices Index: U.S. -10 -10 -20 -20 -30 -30 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 Source: S & P / Case Shiller; Miller Samuel, FRBNY staff calculations Recent figures for apartment price are based on resales only.
    • Summary • After past local & financial downturns, NYC’s economy has typically turned the corner 1-2 years after the US. • NYC has become increasingly dependent on high income securities sector • The effects of the financial turmoil continue to affect employment and income. • Past financial downturns have led to job losses of up to 17% and income declines of more than 30%; this one doesn’t seem to have been that severe, thus far.