Green Pearl Events Multifamily Investment Summit Art Cresce Presentation

Disclaimer
This presentation is being given to inform interested parties of research and to encourage discussion. Any views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of the U.S. Census Bureau.

Key Points Covered
What are the housing data sources produced by the Census Bureau?
What do the data tell us about trends in homeownership and renting?
Where do we go from here?
Proposed new multifamily housing finance survey

Sources of Data on Housing Tenure (Owner/Renter) Status and Other Housing Characteristics
Current Population Survey/Housing Vacancy Survey (CPS/HVS)
American Community Survey (ACS)
Survey of Market Absorption
Survey of Construction
New York City Housing Vacancy Survey
American Housing Survey (AHS)
2010 Census

Annual Rental and Homeowner Vacancy Rates for the United States: 1968–2008 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 Note: The data points are placed at the beginning of the respective time periods. Source for Recession Data: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 1050 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA. Source for Rental and Homeowner Vacancy Rates: Current Population Survey/Housing Vacancy Survey, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, DC 20233. Recession Percent

Quarterly Homeownership Rates for the United States: 1Q2007 – 3Q2009 Source for data: Current Population Survey Housing Vacancy Survey, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, D.C. Source for Recession Data: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 1050 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA

Quarterly Homeowner and Rental Vacancy Rates for the United States: 1Q1997 – 3Q2009 Source for data: Current Population Survey Housing Vacancy Survey, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, D.C. Source for Recession Data: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 1050 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA

Owner-Occupied Units: 1Q2005 – 3Q2009 (In thousands) Source: Current Population Survey Housing Vacancy Survey, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, DC 20233

Renter-Occupied Units: 1Q2005 – 3Q2009 (In thousands) Source: Current Population Survey Housing Vacancy Survey, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, DC 20233

Absorption Rates for New Multifamily 5+ Units for the United States: 2000-2008 Source: Survey of Market Absorption, U.S. Census Bureau , Washington, D.C.

Absorption Rates for New Multifamily 5+ Units for the South: 2000-2008 Source: Survey of Market Absorption, U.S. Census Bureau , Washington, D.C.

Homeownership Rates and Vacancy Rates: Boston Source: American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, DC 20233

Median Gross Rent for Boston: 2005-2008 (2008 Dollars) Source: American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, DC 20233

Homeownership Rates and Vacancy Rates: Chicago Source: American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, DC 20233

Median Gross Rent for Chicago: 2005-2008 (2008 Dollars) Source: American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, DC 20233

Homeownership Rates and Vacancy Rates: New York City Source: American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, DC 20233

Median Gross Rent for New York City: 2005-2008 (2008 Dollars) Source: American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, DC 20233

Homeownership Rates and Vacancy Rates: Tampa Source: American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, DC 20233

Median Gross Rent for Tampa: 2005-2008 (2008 Dollars) Source: American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, DC 20233

Where Do We Go From Here: Key Factors to Consider
Population movement back toward the central cities
Public policy
Response of homebuilders
Attitudes toward homeownership and renting
Historically high rental vacancy rate
Where will the Boomers go when they retire?
We have been there before

Population Movement Back Toward the Central Cities
Evidence of renewed growth in central cities
Work by William Frey using July 1, 2008 population estimates provided by the Census Bureau

Public policy
First-time buyers tax credit extended
Expansion of tax credit to homeowners who have lived in their house for at least 5 years
Mortgage interest tax deductions

Response of Homebuilders
What will be the response of homebuilders?
New home construction
Multiunit construction
Possible change in square footage of new homes

Completion of Single-Family Units: 2003-2008 (Numbers in thousands) Note: Relative Standard Error (RSE) is 2% for single-family units. Source: Survey of Construction, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, D.C.

Completion of Multifamily Units: 2003-2008 (Numbers in thousands) Note: Relative Standard Error (RSE) is 6% for owned units and 5% for rental units. Source: Survey of Construction, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, D.C.

Square Footage of Floor Area for New Privately Owned Single-Family Housing Units Started: 2003-2008 Source: Survey of Construction, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, D.C. Note: Relative Standard Error (RSE) is 2% for median and average

Historically high rental vacancy rate Source: Current Population Survey Housing Vacancy Survey, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, DC 20233

Attitudes Toward Homeownership and Renting
In response to the current spate of foreclosures, how will potential homebuyers respond?

What Will Boomers Do When They Retire?
Typically ownership declines in the older age groups of the 65+ population
Boomers will comprise an increasing percentage of the population 65+ over the next several decades
Warmer climates may not be quite as attractive as before – Frey (2009) notes that for the first time in recent memory outmigrants from Florida between 2007 and 2008 exceeded inmigrants

Many Options Available, Some of Them Involve Multifamily Housing
“ Aging in Place” – stay in current housing unit but make sure space accommodates limitations
“ Age restricted” communities – assumption of more independence – can be both single family and multifamily communities
Independent living/assisted living facilities – assumption that residents will need some level of assistance - many of these involve multifamily structures
Living with the children

We Have Been There Before
1990 Census was the first census since the 1950 Census to have a decline in the homeownership rate
Myers et al. (1992) raised the question about a potential retreat from homeownership
Housing prices rose dramatically on east and west coasts during the 1980’s
Householders under 45 experienced greatest decline
Issue of affordability

Proposed Multifamily Housing Finance Survey
Residential Finance Survey (RFS) – only statistically representative picture of multifamily (MF) housing finance in U.S.
No funding for a traditional RFS
No single, comprehensive source of information on MF financing
Proposed survey
Use properties in SOMA and AHS samples (maybe from ACS sample as well)
Ask questions similar to RFS and 1995 Property Owners and Managers Survey
Potential 2011 survey date – pending funding approval

For More Information:
American Community Survey –
http://www.census.gov/acs/www/
Housing Data –
http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing.html
My contact information:
email: [email_address]
phone: 301-763-3188

Green Pearl Events Multifamily Investment Summit Art Cresce Presentation

by Ryan Slack

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Green Pearl Events Multifamily Investment Summit Art Cresce Presentation Presentation Transcript