Brad Hunter - Residential Presentation

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The Residential Market in Florida and the Southeast – A Special Presentation by Brad Hunter

* Brad Hunter, Chief Economist, Nat’l Director of Consulting, Metrostudy

Published in: Real Estate
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Brad Hunter - Residential Presentation

  1. 1. Brad Hunter Chief Economist/ National Director of Consulting (561) 573-8351 bhunter@metrostudy.com Housing Overview For Investors in Subdivisions/MPCsLoan Portfolios, AD&C Debt, and CDDs © Copyright Metrostudy 2010
  2. 2. Residential InvestmentOpportunities• IRR potential• Contrarian Philosophy• Where are the best deals likely to be?• Where is risk highest?• Where is the collateral, and how well (or poorly positioned) is it?• What data can help you find the best risk-adjusted returns? © Copyright Metrostudy 2010
  3. 3. 3© Copyright Metrostudy 2010
  4. 4. 4© Copyright Metrostudy 2010
  5. 5. 5© Copyright Metrostudy 2010
  6. 6. 6© Copyright Metrostudy 2010
  7. 7. 7© Copyright Metrostudy 2010
  8. 8. How Much Excess Is Left?? © Copyright Metrostudy 2010
  9. 9. © Copyright Metrostudy 2010
  10. 10. 10© Copyright Metrostudy 2010
  11. 11. 11© Copyright Metrostudy 2010
  12. 12. 125,629,946 Total Lots © Copyright Metrostudy 2010
  13. 13. 13© Copyright Metrostudy 2010
  14. 14. 14© Copyright Metrostudy 2010
  15. 15. Focus on South Florida © Copyright Metrostudy 2010
  16. 16. Pockets of Strength:Top 10 Subdivisions in South Florida, ranked by Starts Starts Move-Ins1. Valencia Reserve 280 2062. Monterra 209 613. Parkland Reserve 150 1374. Abacoa 117 1235. Canyon Springs 98 1296. Artesia 95 1397. Oasis 73 948. Silver Palms 61 309. Pembroke Cay TH 59 2510. Greystone 58 126 © Copyright Metrostudy 2010
  17. 17. M iam i-Dade Quarterly Starts v. M ove-Ins of Detached Hom es1600 4Q10 starts – 421400 4Q10 move-ins – 15212001000 800 600 400 200 0 4Q02 4Q03 4Q04 4Q05 4Q06 4Q07 4Q08 4Q09 4Q10 Q starts Q move -ins © Copyright Metrostudy 2010
  18. 18. M iam i-Dade Detached - Units Under Construction v. Finished V acant Units3,000 4Q10 fin/vac – 2602,500 fin/vac M-O-S – 9.92,0001,5001,000 500 0 4Q02 4Q03 4Q04 4Q05 4Q06 4Q07 4Q08 4Q09 4Q10 U/C Fin Vac © Copyright Metrostudy 2010
  19. 19. M iam i-Dade Quarterly Starts v. M ove-Ins of Attached Hom es1200 4Q10 starts – 331000 4Q10 move-ins – 164 800 600 400 200 0 4Q02 4Q03 4Q04 4Q05 4Q06 4Q07 4Q08 4Q09 4Q10 Q starts Q move -ins © Copyright Metrostudy 2010
  20. 20. M iami-Dade Attached - Units Under Construction v. Finished V acant Units2,500 4Q10 fin/vac – 7732,250 fin/vac M-O-S – 21.82,0001,7501,5001,2501,000 750 500 250 0 4Q02 4Q03 4Q04 4Q05 4Q06 4Q07 4Q08 4Q09 4Q10 U/C Fin Vac © Copyright Metrostudy 2010
  21. 21. M iam i-Dade Attached - V acant Developed Lots3,0002,7502,5002,2502,0001,7501,5001,2501,000 750 500 250 0 4Q02 4Q03 4Q04 4Q05 4Q06 4Q07 4Q08 4Q09 4Q10 VDL © Copyright Metrostudy 2010
  22. 22. Palm Beach Quarterly Starts v. M ove-Ins of Detached Homes2,5002,250 4Q10 starts – 2012,000 4Q10 move-ins – 2411,7501,5001,2501,000 750 500 250 0 4Q02 4Q03 4Q04 4Q05 4Q06 4Q07 4Q08 4Q09 4Q10 Q sta rts Q move -ins © Copyright Metrostudy 2010
  23. 23. Palm Beach Detached - Units Under Construction v. Finished V acant Units4,000 4Q10 fin/vac – 2453,500 fin/vac M-O-S – 2.93,0002,5002,0001,5001,000 500 0 4Q02 4Q03 4Q04 4Q05 4Q06 4Q07 4Q08 4Q09 4Q10 U/C Fin Vac © Copyright Metrostudy 2010
  24. 24. Palm Beach Detached - V acant Developed Lots8,000 3,000 lots seems like a goodly supply, yet7,000 some builders are having difficulty finding lots to buy! Owners are either tough (Lehman, Starwood),6,000 or are completing entitlements (Blackrock).5,0004,0003,0002,0001,000 0 4Q02 4Q03 4Q04 4Q05 4Q06 4Q07 4Q08 4Q09 4Q10 VDL © Copyright Metrostudy 2010
  25. 25. Abacoa 4-mi. Radius Detached - All © Copyright Metrostudy 2010
  26. 26. Abacoa 4-mile Radius Detached – active only © Copyright Metrostudy 2010
  27. 27. Abacoa 4-mi. R adius Quarterly Starts v. M ove- Ins of Detached Hom es450 4Q10 starts: 27400 4Q10 move-ins: 47350300250200150100 50 0 4Q10 4Q02 4Q03 4Q04 4Q05 4Q06 4Q07 4Q08 4Q09 Q sta rts Q move -ins © Copyright Metrostudy 2010
  28. 28. Abacoa 4-m i. R adius Detached - Units Under Construction v. Finished V acant Units900800 4Q10 fin/vac – 35 fin/vac M-O-S – 2.5700600500400300200100 0 4Q10 4Q02 4Q03 4Q04 4Q05 4Q06 4Q07 4Q08 4Q09 U/C Fin Vac © Copyright Metrostudy 2010
  29. 29. Abacoa 4-m i. R adius Detached - V acant Developed Lots1,7501,5001,2501,000 750 500 250 0 4Q10 4Q02 4Q03 4Q04 4Q05 4Q06 4Q07 4Q08 4Q09 VDL © Copyright Metrostudy 2010
  30. 30. Boynton/Delray 4-mi. Radius Detached - All © Copyright Metrostudy 2010
  31. 31. Boynton/Delray 4-mile Radius Detached – active © Copyright Metrostudy 2010
  32. 32. Canyons 4-m i. R adius Quarterly Starts v. M ove-Ins of Detached Hom es600 4Q10 starts: 112500 4Q10 move-ins: 138400300200100 0 4Q10 4Q02 4Q03 4Q04 4Q05 4Q06 4Q07 4Q08 4Q09 Q starts Q move -ins © Copyright Metrostudy 2010
  33. 33. Canyons 4-mi. R adius Detached - Units Under Construction v. Finished V acant Units1,000 4Q10 fin/vac – 113 900 fin/vac M-O-S – 2.4 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 4Q10 4Q02 4Q03 4Q04 4Q05 4Q06 4Q07 4Q08 4Q09 U/C Fin Vac © Copyright Metrostudy 2010
  34. 34. Canyons 4-m i. R adius Detached - V acant Developed Lots1,2001,1001,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 4Q10 4Q02 4Q03 4Q04 4Q05 4Q06 4Q07 4Q08 4Q09 VDL © Copyright Metrostudy 2010
  35. 35. ForeclosuresCounties Committed to “Clean Out Backlogs!” Robo-signers may benefit homebuilders © Copyright Metrostudy 2010
  36. 36. Miami-Dade Foreclosure Filings and Certificates of Title Miami-Dade committed to "close out" 52,000 cases in the 12 months ended June 30, 2011.8,000 -- That equals an average of 4,333 per month!7,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,000 0 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 May-07 May-08 May-09 May-10 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 filings certs © Copyright Metrostudy 2010
  37. 37. Broward Mortgage Foreclosure Filings versus Certificates of T itle (Banks Only)9,0008,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,000 0 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Mar-06 May-06 Mar-07 May-07 Mar-08 May-08 Mar-09 May-09 Mar-10 May-10 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Filings by Banks Certs into Banks © Copyright Metrostudy 2010
  38. 38. P a lm B e a ch M o rt g a g e Fo re clo su re Filing s ve rsu s C e rt ifica t e s o f T it le3,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,000 500 0 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Aug-06 Aug-07 Aug-08 Aug-09 Aug-10 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Filing s Ce r t s int o Ba nks © Copyright Metrostudy 2010
  39. 39. Brad HunterChief Economist/National Director of Consulting(561) 573-8351bhunter@metrostudy.comTHANK YOU!! © Copyright Metrostudy 2010
  40. 40. About the PresenterBrad Hunter, Chief Economist/National Director of ConsultingBrad Hunter spearheads Metrostudy’s current work with the investmentcommunity and national developer/builder clients. A large part of his worklately has been with private equity funds, hedge funds, and pension fundadvisors. He supervises the bulk of the company’s multi-market studies, and hasorchestrated hundreds of site-specific or area-specific housing market studiesover the past twenty-plus years. Metrostudy is the nation’s premier advisor onlocal and regional housing market conditions. With 25 years worth of experiencein real estate analysis and local market economic forecasting, Mr. Hunter is a FullMember of the Urban Land Institute, has authored numerous articles and bookchapters for ULI, including Market Profiles, and serves on the Housing MarketForecast Panel for the Housing Market Report. He is regularly cited in local andnational journals, and has recently been featured in the Wall Street Journal andon Bloomberg News (including Bloomberg’s “On the Money” and “On theEconomy” radio shows). He graduated in 1985 from the Wharton School of theUniversity of Pennsylvania with a degree in economics and has been a guestlecturer at Harvard University. Hunter is a speaker at conferences on real estateopportunities and investing, as well as at ULI conferences, and is frequentlycalled upon by key regulatory agencies of the U.S. government for his insights onthe housing sector. Hunter has tracked and forecast housing markets anddemographic/economic trends at the local level for 24 years. © Copyright Metrostudy 2010

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