Climate Change Implications to the Sierra Nevada and the Central Valley Ryan Lucas Sierra Nevada Research Institute UC Merced [email_address]

Outline Greenhouse Effect Temperature Forecast Impacts Water/Snowpack Wildfire Vegetation Sea Level Summary

Greenhouse Effect

Temperature Forecast

Impacts

Water/Snowpack

Wildfire

Vegetation

Sea Level

Summary

Greenhouse Effect Increased concentration of greenhouse gasses in the earth’s atmosphere CO 2 – burning of fossil fuels H 2 O – natural, increase from melting of ice N 2 O – manure breakdown CH 4 – landfills, manure breakdown

Increased concentration of greenhouse gasses in the earth’s atmosphere

CO 2 – burning of fossil fuels

H 2 O – natural, increase from melting of ice

N 2 O – manure breakdown

CH 4 – landfills, manure breakdown

Incoming Solar Radiation Incoming Solar Radiation is absorbed by Earth’s surface. Surface emits long wave radiation to atmosphere A fraction of the long wave radiation escapes from the atmosphere; greenhouse gases absorb the remaining long wave radiation and emit long wave radiation in all directions. Increase of greenhouse gases results in more long wave radiation absorbed and re-emitted and warmer global surface temperatures. Greenhouse Effect

Source: Bales et al 2006

Source: Stewart et al 2005

Water Impacts Early onset of spring Early stream flow Loss of reservoir and groundwater storage Loss of hydroelectric generated power Large winter storms produce rain Loss of storage in snow pack Induction of floods, rain on snow events Longer, drier summers Crop and stock stresses

Early onset of spring

Early stream flow

Loss of reservoir and groundwater storage

Loss of hydroelectric generated power

Large winter storms produce rain

Loss of storage in snow pack

Induction of floods, rain on snow events

Longer, drier summers

Crop and stock stresses

Wildfires Source: Westerling 2006

Source: Westerling et al 2006

Fire Impacts More frequent wildfires More intense/larger wildfires Decrease in Central Valley air quality Loss of vegetation Loss of wildlife habitat Release of CO 2 to atmosphere

More frequent wildfires

More intense/larger wildfires

Decrease in Central Valley air quality

Loss of vegetation

Loss of wildlife habitat

Release of CO 2 to atmosphere

Vegetation Source: Linehan et al 2006

Source: Linehan et al 2006 Vegetation

Vegetation Impacts Potential migration of plant species Potential loss of plant species. Migration and/or loss of plant species may lead to migration and/or loss of animal species.

Potential migration of plant species

Potential loss of plant species.

Migration and/or loss of plant species may lead to migration and/or loss of animal species.

Sea Level Potential for 1-3 feet sea level rise by the end of the century (Hanak and Lund 2008) Alter salinity, depth, and flood potential in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta

Potential for 1-3 feet sea level rise by the end of the century (Hanak and Lund 2008)

Alter salinity, depth, and flood potential in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta

Impacts to Sierra Nevada and the Central Valley Reduction in water supply Major implications for agricultural and urban communities Impacts to water cycle affects species habitats (i.e. early spring stream pulse effects in salmonid fish) Reduced capacity for hydroelectric power production Decreased air quality Major implications for public health sector Changes to “natural” habitats Major implications on indigenous plant and animal species Sea level rise major effects on Sacramento/San Joaquin Delta, plants and aquatic species

Reduction in water supply

Major implications for agricultural and urban communities

Impacts to water cycle affects species habitats (i.e. early spring stream pulse effects in salmonid fish)

Reduced capacity for hydroelectric power production

Decreased air quality

Major implications for public health sector

Changes to “natural” habitats

Major implications on indigenous plant and animal species

Sea level rise

major effects on Sacramento/San Joaquin Delta, plants and aquatic species

Thank You!