Berry Climate Change Projections And Implication
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Berry Climate Change Projections And Implication

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Presentation at "The River, the Bay and the Strait" public forum, 5 October, 2008, Hervey Bay

Presentation at "The River, the Bay and the Strait" public forum, 5 October, 2008, Hervey Bay

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  • 1. Climate Change Projections and Implication The River, the Bay and the Strait Forum
  • 2. Up Front
    • This presentation is not about the science of climate change.
    • Assuming that the climate is already changing and it will continue to do so even with mitigation.
    • Projection not fact. Still requires development of peer review process and adoption into policy.
  • 3. Problems
    • Differing projections depending on model used.
    • State Government guaranteeing flow rates and yield based on CSIRO projections.
    • 78% of catchment area does not correspond to 78% of flow.
    • Removing 22% of a catchment area will have an impact, especially in addition to reduced rainfall.
  • 4. SimCLIM Family Tree VANDACLIM ( island version ) Source: CLIMsystems BDCLIM ( Bangladesh ) VANDACLIM ( fictitious country ) OZCLIM (CSIRO) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 CLIMPACTS CHAMP (New Zealand ) CANCLIM ( Canada ) SimCLIM SriLankaCLIM HOTSPOTS (NZ) TopoCLIM Hard-wired Open-system DryCLIM COMMERCIAL VERSION
  • 5. Climate Modelling
    • Where computer programs make projections about future climate using:
      • 1. Global circulation models (GCMs),
      • 2. Emission scenarios, and
      • 3. Climatic sensitivity.
  • 6. Global Circulation Models (GCMs)
    • Physically based, complex, 3D models.
    • Take into account as many factors as possible that could influence climate and hence simulate the global climate system.
    • Climate factors include: wind patterns and ocean currents, cyclones, El Nino, ice-sheets, clouds, ecosystems etc.
    • Source: CLIMsystems
  • 7. Emission Scenarios Source: http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/index.htm
  • 8. 2008 2020 2050 2100 Kandanga Imbil Kenilworth Maleny Kandanga Imbil Kenilworth Maleny Kandanga Imbil Kenilworth Maleny Kandanga Imbil Kenilworth Maleny
  • 9. Annual Average Change in Precipitation (mm): 1374.0 – 1550.6 844.3 – 1020.9 844.3 – 1020.9 844.3 – 1020.9 2100 1727.2 – 1903.8 1197.5 – 1374.0 1020.9 – 1197.5 1197.5 – 1374.0 2020 1550.6 - 1727.2 1727.2 – 1903.8 Maleny 1020.9 – 1197.5 1197.5 – 1374.0 Kenilworth 1020.9 – 1197.5 1020.9 – 1197.5 Imbil 1020.9 – 1197.5 1197.5 – 1374.0 Kandanga 2050 2008
  • 10. Annual Average Change in Precipitation (mm/year): 535 702 Monto 550 725 Gayndah 612 790 Kingaroy 955 1185 Gympie 920 1148 Maryborough 840 1060 Bundaberg 2100 1990
  • 11. 2008 2020 2050 2100 Kandanga Imbil Kenilworth Maleny Kandanga Imbil Kenilworth Maleny Kandanga Imbil Kenilworth Maleny Kandanga Imbil Kenilworth Maleny
  • 12. Annual Average Maximum Temperature Change ( 0 C) : 29.1 – 30.4 29.1 – 30.4 31.7 – 33.0 31.7 – 33.0 2100 22.7 – 24.0 24.0 – 25.3 25.3 – 26.6 25.3 – 26.6 2020 24.0 – 25.3 21.5 – 22.7 Maleny 25.3 – 26.6 22.7 – 24.0 Kenilworth 26.6 – 27.9 24.0 – 25.3 Imbil 26.6 – 27.9 24.0 – 25.3 Kandanga 2050 2008
  • 13. Annual Average Maximum Temperature Change: 30.71 - 34.66 27.33 Monto 30.98 - 34.95 27.59 Gayndah 28.21 - 32.19 24.82 Kingaroy 28.82 - 32.38 25.78 Gympie 29.49 - 32.99 26.50 Maryborough 29.71 - 33.31 26.63 Bundaberg 2100 1990
  • 14. Number of days over 35 0 C /year Kandanga, Cooroy, Kenilworth and Maleny – no temperature data recorded. 72 2100 45 20 12 7 Imbil 2075 2050 2030 2008
  • 15. Number of days over 40 0 C / year Kandanga, Cooroy, Kenilworth and Maleny – no temperature data recorded. 14 2100 6 1.7 0.7 0.1 Imbil 2075 2050 2030 2008
  • 16. Number of days over 35 0 C / year 164 118 62 28 19 Monto 193 140 77 33 22 Gayndah 108 65 24 7 4 Kingaroy 91 114 123 2100 59 30 14 10 Gympie 66 37 5 3 Maryborough 59 10 2 1 Bundaberg 2075 2050 2020 1990
  • 17. Conclusions
    • Impossible to guarantee water above or below dam.
    • Different software packages, models and scenarios can give different projections.
    • Higher temperatures mean higher levels of evaporation and evapotranspiration.
    • Longer growing seasons for aquatic weeds.
    • Higher demand for water.
  • 18. Future Research
    • Increase accuracy of rainfall projections to local areas i.e. models & data used.
    • Flow rate projections for the Mary River to be determined.