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Energy Then Now Soon
Energy Then Now Soon
Energy Then Now Soon
Energy Then Now Soon
Energy Then Now Soon
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Energy Then Now Soon

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Walks through our 35 year history of energy policy and funding, and on part of our solution

Walks through our 35 year history of energy policy and funding, and on part of our solution

Published in: Technology, Business
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  • 1. Energy: Then, Now, Soon Glenn Rambach
  • 2. How does all our energy flow through the United States to move our vehicles, heat our homes and run our industry?
  • 3. U.S. Energy Flow Trends – 2002 Net Primary Resource Consumption ~ 97 Quads
  • 4. U.S. Energy Flow Trends – 2002 Net Primary Resource Consumption ~ 97 Quads Energy sources for USA (97 Q total)
  • 5. U.S. Energy Flow Trends – 2002 Net Primary Resource Consumption ~ 97 Quads Energy’s destiny Energy sources for USA (97 Q total)
  • 6. U.S. Energy Flow Trends – 2002 Net Primary Resource Consumption ~ 97 Quads 1 Quad = 1 quadrillion BTU = 1015 BTU
  • 7. U.S. Energy Flow Trends – 2002 Net Primary Resource Consumption ~ 97 Quads Import reduction with all ICE hybrid vehicles 1 Quad = 1 quadrillion BTU = 1015 BTU
  • 8. U.S. Energy Flow Trends – 2002 Net Primary Resource Consumption ~ 97 Quads Import reduction with 50% H2 fuel cell vehicles Import reduction with all ICE hybrid vehicles 1 Quad = 1 quadrillion BTU = 1015 BTU
  • 9. U.S. Energy Flow Trends – 2002 Net Primary Resource Consumption ~ 97 Quads Import reduction with 50% H2 fuel cell vehicles Import reduction with all ICE hybrid vehicles 1 Quad = 1 quadrillion BTU = 1015 BTU
  • 10. U.S. Energy Flow Trends – 2002 Net Primary Resource Consumption ~ 97 Quads So, what silver bullet will solve all this? Import reduction with 50% H2 fuel cell vehicles Import reduction with all ICE hybrid vehicles 1 Quad = 1 quadrillion BTU = 1015 BTU
  • 11. U.S. Energy Flow Trends – 2002 Net Primary Resource Consumption ~ 97 Quads Import reduction with 50% H2 fuel cell vehicles Import reduction with all ICE hybrid vehicles 1 Quad = 1 quadrillion BTU = 1015 BTU
  • 12. U.S. Energy Flow Trends – 2002 Net Primary Resource Consumption ~ 97 Quads There is NO silver bullet that will solve our energy security problems and satisfy this level of complexity in our nation’s network of energy flows. There ARE individual solutions that, in aggregate will solve all our problems. Import reduction with 50% H2 fuel cell vehicles Import reduction with all ICE hybrid vehicles 1 Quad = 1 quadrillion BTU = 1015 BTU
  • 13. “We Need an Apollo Program to Solve Our Energy Problems”
  • 14. “We Need an Apollo Program to Solve Our Energy Problems” . . . . . . . . Oh really?
  • 15. “We Need an Apollo Program to Solve Our Energy Problems” Big, National, Goal-Driven Programs Announcement of Goal Goal Line Time Distance From Goal
  • 16. “We Need an Apollo Program to Solve Our Energy Problems” Announcement of Goal Goal Line 1) Goal to Land on the Moon Apollo Program Goal: Announced May 25, 1961 The Moon
  • 17. “We Need an Apollo Program to Solve Our Energy Problems” Announcement of Goal Goal Line 1) Goal to Land on the Moon Distance Apollo Program From Goal: Announced May 25, 1961 Goal The Moon First US manned sub-orbital flight, 1961
  • 18. “We Need an Apollo Program to Solve Our Energy Problems” Announcement of Goal Goal Line 1) Goal to Land on the Moon Apollo Program Goal: Announced May 25, 1961 The Moon First US manned sub-orbital flight, 1961
  • 19. “We Need an Apollo Program to Solve Our Energy Problems” Announcement of Goal Goal Line 1) Goal to Land on the Moon Project Apollo Apollo Program Announced May 25, 1961 Project Gemini Project Mercury First US manned sub-orbital flight, 1961
  • 20. “We Need an Apollo Program to Solve Our Energy Problems” Apollo11 Announcement Lunar Landing Time: 8 years of Goal Goal Line Cost: $114B (2006$) 1) Goal to Land on the Moon Project Apollo Apollo Program Announced May 25, 1961 Project Gemini Project Mercury First US manned sub-orbital flight, 1961
  • 21. “We Need an Apollo Program to Solve Our Energy Problems” Apollo11 Announcement Lunar Landing Time: 8 years of Goal Goal Line Cost: $114B (2006$) $20 B 1) Goal to Land on the Moon Project Apollo Apollo Program Announced May 25, 1961 Project Gemini Project Mercury First US manned sub-orbital flight, 1961 Budgets are a true measure of priorities $10 B
  • 22. “We Need an Apollo Program to Solve Our Energy Problems” Apollo11 Announcement Lunar Landing Time: 8 years of Goal Goal Line Cost: $114B (2006$) $20 B 1) Goal to Land on the Moon Project Apollo Apollo Program Announced May 25, 1961 Project Gemini Project Mercury First US manned sub-orbital flight, 1961 Budgets are a true measure of priorities $10 B Cost from 1961 Through Apollo 11 Mission (2006$) 1961 1969
  • 23. “We Need an Apollo Program to Solve Our Energy Problems” Apollo11 Announcement Lunar Landing Time: 8 years of Goal Goal Line Cost: $114B (2006$) 1) Goal to Land on the Moon Project Apollo Apollo Program Announced May 25, 1961 Project Gemini Project Mercury First US manned sub-orbital flight, 1961
  • 24. “We Need an Apollo Program to Solve Our Energy Problems” Announcement of Goal Goal Line 1) Goal to Land on the Moon 2) Goal to Reduce U.S. Energy Goal: Dependence From 30% to 0% 0% Oil Project Independence Dependence Announced Nov. 7, 1973
  • 25. “We Need an Apollo Program to Solve Our Energy Problems” Announcement of Goal Goal Line 1) Goal to Land on the Moon Distance 2) Goal to Reduce U.S. Energy From Goal: Dependence From 30% to 0% Goal 0% Oil Project Independence Dependence Announced Nov. 7, 1973 30% oil dependence, 1973.
  • 26. “We Need an Apollo Program to Solve Our Energy Problems” Announcement of Goal Goal Line 1) Goal to Land on the Moon 2) Goal to Reduce U.S. Energy Goal: Dependence From 30% to 0% 0% Oil Project Independence Dependence Announced Nov. 7, 1973 30% oil dependence, 1973.
  • 27. “We Need an Apollo Program to Solve Our Energy Problems” Announcement of Goal Goal Line 1) Goal to Land on the Moon 2) Goal to Reduce U.S. Energy Goal: Dependence From 30% to 0% 0% Oil Project Independence Dependence Announced Nov. 7, 1973 30% oil dependence, 1973.
  • 28. “We Need an Apollo Program to Solve Our Energy Problems” Announcement of Goal Goal Line 1) Goal to Land on the Moon 2) Goal to Reduce U.S. Energy Goal: Dependence From 30% to 0% 0% Oil Project Independence Dependence Announced Nov. 7, 1973 30% oil dependence, 1973. 61% Oil Dependence. Time: 34 years Cost: $147B
  • 29. “We Need an Apollo Program to Solve Our Energy Problems” Announcement of Goal Goal Line $20 B 1) Goal to Land on the Moon 2) Goal to Reduce U.S. Energy Goal: Dependence From 30% to 0% 0% Oil Project Independence Dependence Announced Nov. 7, 1973 30% oil dependence, 1973. Budgets are a true measure of priorities $10 B 61% Oil Dependence. Time: 34 years 1986 1982 1994 1990 1980 1978 1974 Cost: $147B $6 B Fossil $4 B Renewable 2007 DOE $2 B Energy Budget Fission $0 Fed Budgets (Political Will) for All Energy Development, 1973 - 1997
  • 30. “We Need an Apollo Program to Solve Our Energy Problems” Announcement of Goal Goal Line 1) Goal to Land on the Moon 2) Goal to Reduce U.S. Energy Goal: Dependence From 30% to 0% 0% Oil Project Independence Dependence Announced Nov. 7, 1973 30% oil dependence, 1973. 61% Oil Dependence. Time: 34 years Cost: $147B Since “Project Energy Independence” was announced Nov 7, 1973: We’ve spent • 130% the Apollo Program in cost, and • 415% the Apollo Program in time, and are • Twice as far from goal than at beginning
  • 31. “We Need an Apollo Program to Solve Our Energy Problems” Announcement of Goal Goal Line 1) Goal to Land on the Moon 2) Goal to Reduce U.S. Energy Goal: Dependence From 30% to 0% 0% Oil Project Independence Dependence Announced Nov. 7, 1973 30% oil dependence, 1973. 61% Oil Dependence. Time: 34 years Cost: $147B Since “Project Energy Independence” was announced Nov 7, 1973: We’ve spent • 130% the Apollo Program in cost, and • 415% the Apollo Program in time, and are • Twice as far from goal than at beginning Energy is far more difficult a challenge than simply landing on the moon, ending wars or curing diseases. An Apollo Program approach is a noble idea, BUT is fiscally inadequate to address humanity’s most difficult challenge ever, energy.
  • 32. A Short Stop On The Way To $8.00 A Gallon
  • 33. A Short Stop On The Way To $8.00 A Gallon For 35 years, gasoline price was mistakenly considered the problem to solve. It is merely a symptom, like the pressure reading on a barometer that can really mean there’s a hurricane coming. Trying to solve gas prices is the same as trying to fix the barometer, while ignoring the hurricane . Far greater than $5.00 a gallon is likely.
  • 34. A Short Stop On The Way To $8.00 A Gallon For 35 years, gasoline price was mistakenly considered the problem to solve. It is merely a symptom, like the pressure reading on a barometer that can really mean there’s a hurricane coming. Trying to solve gas prices is the same as trying to fix the barometer, while ignoring the hurricane . Far greater than $5.00 a gallon is likely. WRONG PROBLEM DEFINITION!
  • 35. A Short Stop On The Way To $8.00 A Gallon For 35 years, gasoline price was mistakenly considered the problem to solve. It is merely a symptom, like the pressure reading on a barometer that can really mean there’s a hurricane coming. Trying to solve gas prices is the same as trying to fix the barometer, while ignoring the hurricane . Far greater than $5.00 a gallon is likely. THE problem to solve is the growth in instability of the energy supply and its geopolitical disruption.
  • 36. Global Supply-Demand Challenge Barrels of Oil Per Second
  • 37. Global Supply-Demand Challenge Barrels of Oil Per Second
  • 38. Global Supply-Demand Challenge Barrels of Oil Per Second
  • 39. Global Supply-Demand Challenge Barrels of Oil Per Second
  • 40. Per Capita Oil Consumption - 2006 Per Capita Oil Demand Barrels Per Person Per Year http://www.theoildrum.com/files/WSJ_consumption.png
  • 41. Per Capita Oil Consumption - 2006 Per Capita Oil Demand Barrels Per Person Per Year 1.32B 45% of the .235B World’s Population 1.13B http://www.theoildrum.com/files/WSJ_consumption.png
  • 42. Per Capita Oil Consumption - 2006 Per Capita Oil Demand Barrels Per Person Per Year 1.32B 45% of the .235B World’s Population 1.13B http://www.theoildrum.com/files/WSJ_consumption.png
  • 43. Per Capita Oil Consumption - 2006 Per Capita Oil Demand Barrels Per Person Per Year + 8.83 1.32B 45% of the + 8.86 .235B World’s Population 1.13B + 9.94 http://www.theoildrum.com/files/WSJ_consumption.png
  • 44. Per Capita Oil Consumption - 2006 Per Capita Oil Demand Barrels Per Person Per Year + 8.83 1.32B 45% of the + 8.86 .235B World’s Population 1.13B + 9.94 http://www.theoildrum.com/files/WSJ_consumption.png If the populations of China, India and Indonesia increase oil consumption to the level of Italy, world oil consumption would increase from 87 to 113 million barrels a day. Like adding 1.2 X United States to world consumption.
  • 45. Per Capita Oil Consumption - 2006 Per Capita Oil Demand Barrels Per Person Per Year + 8.83 1.32B 45% of the + 8.86 .235B World’s Population 1.13B + 9.94 http://www.theoildrum.com/files/WSJ_consumption.png If the populations of China, India and Indonesia increase oil consumption to the level of Italy, world oil consumption would increase from 87 to 113 million barrels a day. Like adding 1.2 X United States to world consumption.
  • 46. Russian Oil Production and Consumption 2006: Thousand Barrels a Day Russia exported 6.86 million barrels of oil a day. If that is the same today, then at $100 a barrel, Russia is netting $250B a year in hard cash. While at the same time the USA is spending $498B a year to import oil. www.eia.doe.gov http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/country/country_energy_data.cfm?fips=RS
  • 47. Russian Oil Production and Consumption 2006: Thousand Barrels a Day Russia exported 6.86 million barrels of oil a day. If that is the same today, then at $100 a barrel, Russia is netting $250B a year in hard cash. While at the same time the USA is spending $498B a year to import oil. www.eia.doe.gov http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/country/country_energy_data.cfm?fips=RS
  • 48. Russian Oil Production and Consumption 2006: Thousand Barrels a Day Russia exported 6.86 million barrels of oil a day. If that is the same today’s $50/barrel, Russia is netting $125B a year in hard cash. While at the same time the USA is spending $235B a year to import oil. www.eia.doe.gov http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/country/country_energy_data.cfm?fips=RS
  • 49. Russian Oil Production and Consumption 2006: Thousand Barrels a Day Russia exported 6.86 million barrels of oil a day. If that is the same today’s $50/barrel, Russia is netting $125B a year in hard cash. While at the same time the USA is spending $235B a year to import oil. www.eia.doe.gov http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/country/country_energy_data.cfm?fips=RS
  • 50. OK, So Much for the Downers (Challenges)
  • 51. OK, So Much for the Downers (Challenges) Now Part of the Upside and Opportunity
  • 52. OK, So Much for the Downers (Challenges) Now Part of the Upside and Opportunity - Fuel Cells and Hydrogen -
  • 53. Hydrogen Fuel Cell Cars in the News in 1993 1993 Energy Partners’ Green Car • Hydrogen fuel • Three 5-kW PEM fuel cells
  • 54. Small Sample of Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Cars in the News in 2008
  • 55. Redesigning the Way We Design Cars GM Sequel Hydrogen Fuel Cell SUV ALL the Car Stuff is Inside the “Skateboard”
  • 56. 2009 Honda Clarity Key Components 134 HP Electric Motor and Transmission 134 HP Fuel Cell Stack
  • 57. Solar Powered Hydrogen Refueling Station
  • 58. New Driver in 2017 We need to be producing about 1 - 3 million non-fossil powered cars per year when he begins driving.
  • 59. New Driver in 2017 We need to be producing about 1 - 3 million non-fossil powered cars per year when he begins driving. Salami sandwich provided for scale.
  • 60. What Choice do We Make NOW to “Save the World”?
  • 61. What Choice do We Make NOW to “Save the World”? With all the technology, economic, strategic and policy options we have, WHAT choice do we make to finally provide a sustainable and independent energy economy?
  • 62. What Choice do We Make NOW to “Save the World”? With all the technology, economic, strategic and policy options we have, WHAT choice do we make to finally provide a sustainable and independent energy economy? •Your action •The education of others •The public •Politicians •Industry and financial leaders
  • 63. Thank You Very Much
  • 64. Civilization’s Development in Food and Energy With abundant food and low populations, we existed as: Hunters and Food gatherers of food During the last ice age we developed the tools and Cultivators of food techniques to become: Hunters and gatherers of energy Fire Whale oil Peat Coal Oil Nat gas Fissile mat’l Energy Cultivators of New technologies now energy permit us to be: Hydro Wind/Solar/Biomass/OTEC 1,000,000 100,000 10,000 1,000 100 10 1 Years before present

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