A novel method for time-binning
rates of continuous character
evolution on a phylogeny
Graeme T. Lloyd and Matt Friedman
Coming soon…
Fossilworks Intensive Workshop in Analytical
Paleobiology
June-July 2014
University of Macquarie, Sydney
foss...
Acknowledgements

Chris
Organ

Graham
Slater
Phylogeny in macroevolution
Variable-rate models

Trait

Early Burst

Late Burst

Time
Rate

Continuous rates

Time
Rate

Continuous rates

Time
Continuous rates

Raia et al. 2013
Guts

Harmon et al. 2008
Method
Method
Method
Method
Method

S1

S2

1

S3
Data

Anderson et al. 2013
Data

Anderson et al. 2013
“Equal” time-scaling

Share time with preceding
(non-zero length) branch

Traditional approach first

τ8

τ8

τ7

τ7

τ6

...
Probabilistic time-scaling
τ6
τ5
τ4
τ3

τ2
τ1
τ0

Hedman 2010
Probabilistic time-scaling
τ6
τ5
τ4
τ3

τ2
τ1
τ0

Age (Ma)

τ0
Hedman 2010
“Equal” time-tree
Probabilistic time-tree
Rates
“Equal” timetree
Rates
“Equal”
timetree
Rates
“Equal” timetree
Probablistic timetree
“Equal” rates with error
Probabilistic rates with error
Model complexity

S1

S2
Change in mode

Ornstein-Uhlenbeck

Brownian

Slater 2013
Conclusions
Conclusions
Conclusions
Conclusions
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A novel method for time-binning rates of continuous character evolution on a phylogeny

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A novel method for time-binning rates of continuous character evolution on a phylogeny

  1. 1. A novel method for time-binning rates of continuous character evolution on a phylogeny Graeme T. Lloyd and Matt Friedman
  2. 2. Coming soon… Fossilworks Intensive Workshop in Analytical Paleobiology June-July 2014 University of Macquarie, Sydney fossilworks.org
  3. 3. Acknowledgements Chris Organ Graham Slater
  4. 4. Phylogeny in macroevolution
  5. 5. Variable-rate models Trait Early Burst Late Burst Time
  6. 6. Rate Continuous rates Time
  7. 7. Rate Continuous rates Time
  8. 8. Continuous rates Raia et al. 2013
  9. 9. Guts Harmon et al. 2008
  10. 10. Method
  11. 11. Method
  12. 12. Method
  13. 13. Method
  14. 14. Method S1 S2 1 S3
  15. 15. Data Anderson et al. 2013
  16. 16. Data Anderson et al. 2013
  17. 17. “Equal” time-scaling Share time with preceding (non-zero length) branch Traditional approach first τ8 τ8 τ7 τ7 τ6 τ6 τ5 τ5 root age Ruta et al. 2006; Brusatte et al. 2008
  18. 18. Probabilistic time-scaling τ6 τ5 τ4 τ3 τ2 τ1 τ0 Hedman 2010
  19. 19. Probabilistic time-scaling τ6 τ5 τ4 τ3 τ2 τ1 τ0 Age (Ma) τ0 Hedman 2010
  20. 20. “Equal” time-tree
  21. 21. Probabilistic time-tree
  22. 22. Rates “Equal” timetree
  23. 23. Rates “Equal” timetree
  24. 24. Rates “Equal” timetree Probablistic timetree
  25. 25. “Equal” rates with error
  26. 26. Probabilistic rates with error
  27. 27. Model complexity S1 S2
  28. 28. Change in mode Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Brownian Slater 2013
  29. 29. Conclusions
  30. 30. Conclusions
  31. 31. Conclusions
  32. 32. Conclusions

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