Bias in estimates ofpalaeobiodiversity: beyond the  marine macrofossil record        Graeme T. Lloyd
Modern diversity is vast…
…but all stems from a single ancestor
How did life get so diverse?  LastUniversalCommonAncestor                 ?
How did life get so diverse?  LastUniversalCommonAncestor
Extant vs. fossil record                   Red – lineage through time plot based                   on extant data only    ...
Sepkoski’s compendia
But can we trust the curves?David Raup                      Miller 2009, after Raup 1972
Raup’s two solutions           Subsampling           Modeling                         Alroy 2010; Lloyd 2012
Common cause hypothesisCollating the data –early curves                               Peters 2005
Beyond the marine macrofossils…Collating the data –early curves     ?                      ? Open ocean   Shelf     Terres...
Dinosaurs data –early curvesCollating the Open ocean   Shelf     Terrestrial
Dinosaurs – data –early curvesCollating the common cause         Non-marine     Haq SL         surface area          Packa...
Dinosaurs – data –early curvesCollating the sampling bias                    Dinosaur-bearing localities                  ...
Dinosaurs - subsamplingCollating the data –early curves                Raw + ghosts        Raw                      Subsam...
Dinosaurs - modeling curvesCollating the data –early                           Lloyd 2012
Coccolithophores–early curvesCollating the data Open ocean    Shelf     Terrestrial
Coccolithophores–early curvesCollating the data                           Lloyd et al. 2012
Coccolithophores–early curvesCollating the data            vs.
Coccolithophores–early curvesCollating the data - database                      Yellow pins – ODP/DSDP                  Gr...
Coccolithophores–early curvesCollating the data – species                           Lloyd et al. 2012
Coccolithophores–early curvesCollating the data – sampling                           Lloyd et al. 2012
Coccolithophores–early curves    Collating the data – correlation  richness             rho = 0.02                        ...
Coccolithophores–early curvesCollating the data – subsampling J   K   Pg+Ng    J   K   Pg+Ng                           Llo...
Coccolithophores–early curvesCollating the data – modeling J   K   Pg+Ng    J    K   Pg+Ng                            Lloy...
Fishes the data –early curvesCollating Open ocean    Shelf     Terrestrial
Fishes – the data –early curvesCollating global curves    Agassiz 1843         Carroll 1988    Benton 1993         Sepkosk...
Fishes – the data –early curvesCollating global curves    Agassiz 1843                  Carroll 1988                      ...
Fishes - database–early curvesCollating the data                      Lloyd and Friedman, accepted
Fishes – the data –early curvesCollating raw diversity                       Lloyd and Friedman, accepted
Fishes – the data –early curvesCollating proxies    Formations    Localities    Grids                           Lloyd and ...
Fishes – the data –early curvesCollating correlations                                    Formations                    rho...
Fishes – the data –early curvesCollating multivariate modeling                       Lloyd and Friedman, accepted
Fishes – the data –early curvesCollating subsampling                       Lloyd and Friedman, accepted
Fishes – the data –early curvesCollating modeling    Formations    Localities    Grids                           Lloyd and...
Fishes – the data –early curvesCollating cartilage vs. bone                       Lloyd and Friedman, accepted
Fishes – the data –early curvesCollating cartilage vs. bone              rho = 0.83   rho = 0.44Formations             rho...
Conclusions data –early curvesCollating the                           ?        Sampling bias                  Sampling bia...
Acknowledgements  Collating the data –early curves   Michael     Steve      Katie        Matt     Dave      Rachel   Bento...
Papers, data, R code etc.Collating the data –early curves  http://www.graemetlloyd.com/
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Bias in estimates of palaeobiodiversity: beyond the marine macrofossil record

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Bias in estimates of palaeobiodiversity: beyond the marine macrofossil record

  1. 1. Bias in estimates ofpalaeobiodiversity: beyond the marine macrofossil record Graeme T. Lloyd
  2. 2. Modern diversity is vast…
  3. 3. …but all stems from a single ancestor
  4. 4. How did life get so diverse? LastUniversalCommonAncestor ?
  5. 5. How did life get so diverse? LastUniversalCommonAncestor
  6. 6. Extant vs. fossil record Red – lineage through time plot based on extant data only Navy – lineage through time plot based on fossil data Ezard et al. 2011
  7. 7. Sepkoski’s compendia
  8. 8. But can we trust the curves?David Raup Miller 2009, after Raup 1972
  9. 9. Raup’s two solutions Subsampling Modeling Alroy 2010; Lloyd 2012
  10. 10. Common cause hypothesisCollating the data –early curves Peters 2005
  11. 11. Beyond the marine macrofossils…Collating the data –early curves ? ? Open ocean Shelf Terrestrial
  12. 12. Dinosaurs data –early curvesCollating the Open ocean Shelf Terrestrial
  13. 13. Dinosaurs – data –early curvesCollating the common cause Non-marine Haq SL surface area Packages Miller SL DBCsDBFs Butler et al. 2011
  14. 14. Dinosaurs – data –early curvesCollating the sampling bias Dinosaur-bearing localities Palaeoarea covered Phylogenetic diversity Taxonomic diversity Dinosaur-bearing formations Benton et al. 2011
  15. 15. Dinosaurs - subsamplingCollating the data –early curves Raw + ghosts Raw Subsampled Lloyd et al. 2008
  16. 16. Dinosaurs - modeling curvesCollating the data –early Lloyd 2012
  17. 17. Coccolithophores–early curvesCollating the data Open ocean Shelf Terrestrial
  18. 18. Coccolithophores–early curvesCollating the data Lloyd et al. 2012
  19. 19. Coccolithophores–early curvesCollating the data vs.
  20. 20. Coccolithophores–early curvesCollating the data - database Yellow pins – ODP/DSDP Green pins – Land-based localities
  21. 21. Coccolithophores–early curvesCollating the data – species Lloyd et al. 2012
  22. 22. Coccolithophores–early curvesCollating the data – sampling Lloyd et al. 2012
  23. 23. Coccolithophores–early curves Collating the data – correlation richness rho = 0.02 richness sampling samplingrho = 0.40 rho = 0.48 Lloyd et al. 2012
  24. 24. Coccolithophores–early curvesCollating the data – subsampling J K Pg+Ng J K Pg+Ng Lloyd et al. 2012
  25. 25. Coccolithophores–early curvesCollating the data – modeling J K Pg+Ng J K Pg+Ng Lloyd et al. 2012
  26. 26. Fishes the data –early curvesCollating Open ocean Shelf Terrestrial
  27. 27. Fishes – the data –early curvesCollating global curves Agassiz 1843 Carroll 1988 Benton 1993 Sepkoski 2002 Lloyd and Friedman, accepted
  28. 28. Fishes – the data –early curvesCollating global curves Agassiz 1843 Carroll 1988 R^2 = 0.74 Benton 1993 Sepkoski 2002 R^2 = 0.91 Lloyd and Friedman, accepted
  29. 29. Fishes - database–early curvesCollating the data Lloyd and Friedman, accepted
  30. 30. Fishes – the data –early curvesCollating raw diversity Lloyd and Friedman, accepted
  31. 31. Fishes – the data –early curvesCollating proxies Formations Localities Grids Lloyd and Friedman, accepted
  32. 32. Fishes – the data –early curvesCollating correlations Formations rho = 0.64 rho = 0.71 Localities Grids Lloyd and Friedman, accepted
  33. 33. Fishes – the data –early curvesCollating multivariate modeling Lloyd and Friedman, accepted
  34. 34. Fishes – the data –early curvesCollating subsampling Lloyd and Friedman, accepted
  35. 35. Fishes – the data –early curvesCollating modeling Formations Localities Grids Lloyd and Friedman, accepted
  36. 36. Fishes – the data –early curvesCollating cartilage vs. bone Lloyd and Friedman, accepted
  37. 37. Fishes – the data –early curvesCollating cartilage vs. bone rho = 0.83 rho = 0.44Formations rho = 0.53 rho = 0.20Localities rho = 0.56 rho = 0.21Grids Lloyd and Friedman, accepted
  38. 38. Conclusions data –early curvesCollating the ? Sampling bias Sampling bias Common cause
  39. 39. Acknowledgements Collating the data –early curves Michael Steve Katie Matt Dave Rachel Benton Brusatte Davis Friedman Hone JenningsDavide Paul Marcello Manabu Andrew James JeremyPisani Pearson Ruta Sakamot Smith Tarver Young o
  40. 40. Papers, data, R code etc.Collating the data –early curves http://www.graemetlloyd.com/

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