Beyond the lower-bound: the fossil record can provide empirically-informed prior distributions on node ages in poorly-sampled groups
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Beyond the lower-bound: the fossil record can provide empirically-informed prior distributions on node ages in poorly-sampled groups

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Beyond the lower-bound: the fossil record can provide empirically-informed prior distributions on node ages in poorly-sampled groups Beyond the lower-bound: the fossil record can provide empirically-informed prior distributions on node ages in poorly-sampled groups Presentation Transcript

  • Beyond the lower-bound: the fossilrecord can provideempirically-informed priordistributions on node ages inpoorly-sampled groupsGraeme T. Lloyd, Matt Friedman andMark A. Bell
  • Credit/blameMatt Friedman Mark Bell
  • When?
  • When?
  • When?Olenekian247.2251.2
  • Prior distribution247.2
  • Prior distribution247.2?
  • Fossil dating approaches #1Nowak et al. 2013
  • Fossil dating approaches #2Bapst in pressTime
  • Required dataTreeTip agesSampling rateBranching rateExtinction rateExtant diversity
  • Required dataTreeTip agesSampling rateBranching rateExtinction rateExtant diversity
  • Fossil dating approaches #3τ6τ5τ4τ2τ1τ3Hedman 2010τ0
  • Fossil dating approaches #3τ0τ6τ5τ4τ2τ1τ3Hedman 2010Age (Ma)τ0
  • Problemτ6τ5τ4τ2τ1τ3τ0Hedman 2010
  • Solution #1τ6τ5τ4τ2τ1τ3τ0Hedman 2010
  • Solution #2τ6τ5τ4τ2τ1τ3τ0Hedman 2010
  • Solution #2τ6τ5τ4τ2τ1τ3τ0Hedman 2010=
  • Frequency of problemLloyd et al. 2008135/416 ‘unique’ nodes
  • Frequency of problem135/416 ‘unique’ nodesWhat about theother two thirds?Lloyd et al. 2008
  • Modified approach
  • Modified approach
  • Modified approach123
  • Modified approach123Min Max
  • Modified approach1 2 3123Min Max
  • Modified approach123
  • Data• Informal supertree• Molecular backbone• 29 source trees• 567 taxa (483 fossil)• c. 10 minutes
  • Dated tree
  • Testing t0
  • Testing t0
  • Cambrian vs. Jurassic t0: Median
  • Cambrian vs. Jurassic t0: Mean
  • Cambrian vs. Jurassic t0: L95%
  • Cambrian vs. Jurassic t0: U95%
  • Molecular divergences #1Meredith et al. 2011
  • Molecular divergences #2dos Reis et al. 2012
  • Molecular comparisonThis studyMeredithet al. 2011dos Reiset al. 2012This study -Meredithet al. 20111.07-1.17 -dos Reiset al. 20121.00-1.09 1.00-1.16 -
  • Molecular comparisonThisstudyMeredith et al. 2011 dos Reis et al. 2012
  • Conclusionsτ6τ5τ4τ2τ1τ3τ0
  • Conclusionsτ6τ5τ4τ2τ1τ3τ0
  • Conclusions