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Are our estimates of palaeobiodiversity more apparent than real?

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  • 1. Are our estimates ofpalaeobiodiversity more apparent than real? Graeme T. Lloyd
  • 2. Modern diversity is vast…
  • 3. …but all stems from a single ancestor
  • 4. How did life get so diverse? LastUniversalCommonAncestor ?
  • 5. How did life get so diverse? LastUniversalCommonAncestor
  • 6. Extant vs. fossil record Red – lineage through time plot based on extant data only Navy – lineage through time plot based on fossil data Ezard et al. 2011
  • 7. Extant vs. fossil record Near et al. 2012
  • 8. Earliest diversity curves Agassiz 1843
  • 9. Earliest diversity curves Philips 1860
  • 10. Early diversity curves Valentine 1970
  • 11. But can we trust the curves?David Raup Miller 2009, after Raup 1972
  • 12. Raup’s two solutions Subsampling Modeling Alroy 2010; Lloyd 2012
  • 13. Sepkoski’s compendia
  • 14. The consensus paper Median trace fossil Dolf Seilacher assemblage richness Species richness David Raup (Zoological record data) Median open-marine Richard Bambach community species richness David Raup Genus diversity Jack Sepkoski Family diversitySepkoski et al. 1981
  • 15. 2000s: a the data –early solutionsCollating return to Raup’s curves Alroy et al. 2001 Peters and Foote 2001
  • 16. 2000s: a the data –early solutionsCollating return to Raup’s curves Alroy et al. 2001 Peters and Foote 2001
  • 17. SubsamplingCollating the data –early curves Alroy et al. 2008 Alroy 2010
  • 18. Modeling data –early curvesCollating the Smith and McGowan 2007
  • 19. Common cause hypothesisCollating the data –early curves Peters 2005
  • 20. (Common) causal–early curvesCollating the data arrows Genera/ Packages O C S Sr Sea- level Hannisdal and Peters 2011
  • 21. The rest thethe story… curvesCollating of data –early ? ? Open ocean Shelf Terrestrial
  • 22. Dinosaurs data –early curvesCollating the Open ocean Shelf Terrestrial
  • 23. Dinosaurs - sampling curvesCollating the data –early Dinosaur-bearing localities Palaeoarea covered Phylogenetic diversity Taxonomic diversity Dinosaur-bearing formations Benton et al. 2011
  • 24. Dinosaurs - subsamplingCollating the data –early curves Raw + ghosts Raw Subsampled Lloyd et al. 2008
  • 25. Dinosaurs - modeling curvesCollating the data –early Lloyd 2012
  • 26. Dinosaurs – data –early curvesCollating the common cause Non-marine Haq SL surface area Packages Miller SL DBCsDBFs Butler et al. 2011
  • 27. Coccolithophores–early curvesCollating the data Open ocean Shelf Terrestrial
  • 28. Coccolithophores–early curvesCollating the data Lloyd et al. 2012
  • 29. Coccolithophores–early curvesCollating the data
  • 30. Coccolithophores–early curvesCollating the data - database Yellow pins – ODP/DSDP Green pins – Land-based localities
  • 31. Coccolithophores–early curvesCollating the data – sp.:genus Lloyd et al. 2012
  • 32. Coccolithophores–early curvesCollating the data – sp.:genus Species:Genus N Sites N Authors Lloyd et al. 2012
  • 33. Coccolithophores–early curves Collating the data – sp.:genusRarefied with respect to N localities Rarefied with respect to N taxonomists Lloyd et al. 2012
  • 34. Coccolithophores–early curvesCollating the data vs.
  • 35. Coccolithophores–early curvesCollating the data – species Lloyd et al. 2012
  • 36. Coccolithophores–early curvesCollating the data – sampling Lloyd et al. 2012
  • 37. Coccolithophores–early curves Collating the data – correlation richness rho = 0.02 richness sampling samplingrho = 0.40 rho = 0.48 Lloyd et al. 2012
  • 38. Coccolithophores–early curvesCollating the data – subsampling J K Pg+Ng J K Pg+Ng Lloyd et al. 2012
  • 39. Coccolithophores–early curvesCollating the data – modeling J K Pg+Ng J K Pg+Ng Lloyd et al. 2012
  • 40. Fishes the data –early curvesCollating Open ocean Shelf Terrestrial
  • 41. Fishes – the data –early curvesCollating old curves Agassiz 1843
  • 42. Fishes – the data –early curvesCollating old curves Thomson 1977
  • 43. Fishes – the data –early curvesCollating global curves Agassiz 1843 Carroll 1988 Benton 1993 Sepkoski 2002 Lloyd and Friedman, submitted
  • 44. Fishes – the data –early curvesCollating global curves Agassiz 1843 Carroll 1988 R^2 = 0.74 Benton 1993 Sepkoski 2002 R^2 = 0.91 Lloyd and Friedman, submitted
  • 45. Fishes – the data –early curvesCollating global curves Agassiz 1843 R^2 = -0.21 Carroll 1988 R^2 = -0.15 Benton 1993 Sepkoski 2002 Lloyd and Friedman, submitted
  • 46. Fishes - database–early curvesCollating the data Lloyd and Friedman, submitted
  • 47. Fishes – the data –early curvesCollating collector curve Lloyd and Friedman, submitted
  • 48. Fishes – the data –early curves Collating grids sampled 1 2 3 40.5-degree net Plot localities Identify grids Count grids Lloyd and Friedman, submitted
  • 49. Fishes – the data –early curvesCollating raw diversity Lloyd and Friedman, submitted
  • 50. Fishes – the data –early curvesCollating proxies Formations Localities Grids Lloyd and Friedman, submitted
  • 51. Fishes – the data –early curvesCollating correlations Formations rho = 0.64 rho = 0.71 Localities Grids Lloyd and Friedman, submitted
  • 52. Fishes – the data –early curvesCollating multivariate modeling Lloyd and Friedman, submitted
  • 53. Fishes – the data –early curvesCollating subsampling Lloyd and Friedman, submitted
  • 54. Fishes – the data –early curvesCollating modeling Formations Localities Grids Lloyd and Friedman, submitted
  • 55. Fishes – the data –early curvesCollating cartilage vs. bone Lloyd and Friedman, submitted
  • 56. Fishes – the data –early curvesCollating cartilage vs. bone rho = 0.83 rho = 0.44Formations rho = 0.53 rho = 0.20Localities rho = 0.56 rho = 0.21Grids Lloyd and Friedman, submitted
  • 57. Conclusions data –early curvesCollating the ? Sampling bias Sampling bias Common cause
  • 58. Acknowledgements Collating the data –early curves Michael Steve Katie Matt Dave Rachel Benton Brusatte Davis Friedman Hone JenningsDavide Paul Marcello Manabu Andrew James JeremyPisani Pearson Ruta Sakamot Smith Tarver Young o
  • 59. Fishes – the data –early curvesCollating bone vs. cartilage Lloyd and Friedman, submitted