Search engine keyword traffic estimate correlation study

Stormy Weather The Accuracy of Search Volume Estimation and Forecasting Graeme Benstead-Hume @mrgraeme

Introduction
We wanted to compare the actual traffic of a number of keywords against the figures provided by the keyword traffic volume estimation tools we use.
Gauge accuracy
Estimate correlation
Find ways to produce more accurate results

How we might use estimations
We might use estimates to:
Choose the best performing keywords for a campaign
To estimate traffic volume at various rankings
To estimate ROI for these terms

How we have used results in the past
When we have needed more accurate results:
Segmenting key-terms by type and traffic volume
Create coefficient based on know traffic volumes

The Study
Took 50 keywords ranking at position 1 on Google UK
Took average monthly traffic of terms over 12 months & updated based on CTR
Gathered monthly search volume estimation data from:
Google Keyword Tool
Wordtracker
SEOBook

Actual results vs. Google Keyword Tool data

Actual results vs. Google Keyword Tool statistics
Avg. % Accuracy 13403%
St dev. 45623%
Mean accuracy 1066%
Accuracy of total traffic 982%
Correlation of datasets 74%

Actual results vs. Wordtracker data

Actual results vs. Wordtracker statistics
Avg. % accuracy 1099%
St dev. 2459%
Mean accuracy 156%
Correlation of datasets 85%

Actual Results vs. SEOBook data

Actual Results vs. SEOBook statistics
St dev. 18710%
Mean accuracy 44%
Accuracy of total traffic 313.31%
Correlation 80%

Comparing the tools
Average % accuracy
Wordtracker – 1099%
SEOBook - 4232%
Google – 13403%
Correlation to actual data
Wordtracker – 85%
SEOBook – 80%
Google – 74%

Correlations between the tools Correlation between tools Google – Wordtracker 0.73 Word Tracker – SEOBook 0.97 SEOBook - Google 0.63

How to fiddle with the results We were hoping for more consistent results… Especially if we were going to be presenting our finding in front of 600 clever SEO types… So we got to fiddling…

Playing with coefficients Google * 0.25
St dev. 5706%
Mean accuracy 77%

Getting rid of the data we didn’t like Estimations for keywords below ~50 search volume a month seem least accurate I.e. Our estimation tools do not perform so well with long-tail terms

Disregarding low traffic volume keywords
St dev. 379%
Mean accuracy 44%

Did we learn anything?
Alone these estimations are far from reliable
Estimations for low volume keywords are especially unreliable
To get the best results we must use existing real life data

Limitations of study
Keywords came from a variety of industries
Not all keywords had a years’ worth of data to be averaged
All tools sample slightly different data for estimations

Thank you! @mrgraeme Presentation available at sitevisibility.co.uk/blog

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Search engine keyword traffic estimate correlation study

by Graeme Benstead-Hume on Sep 08, 2011

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Search engine keyword traffic estimate correlation study — Presentation Transcript