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    Module 1 power point presentation Module 1 power point presentation Presentation Transcript

    • Module 1 Introduction to Climate Change Science One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn 1
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn Learning Objectives 1. Explain the basic concepts of climate change science 2. Identify the anthropogenic drivers of climate change 4. Analyze different climate change scenarios and their implications 3. Explain observed and projected trends in the climate By the end of the module participants will be able to: Module 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science 2
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn OVERVIEW Section 1 Introduction to Climate Change Science Section 2 Anthropogenic Drivers of Climate Change Section 3 Observed Trends and Impacts of Climate Change Section 4 Projected Trends and Impacts of Climate Change Section 5 Sources of Scientific Data Overview Module 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science 3
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn Introduction to Climate Change Science Section 1 Module 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science 4
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn What Is Climate? Weather “What is happening in the atmosphere at any given time” Climate “Average weather over longer time frames” Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science Source: World Meteorological Organization 5
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn Complexity of the Global Climate System Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science Source: IPCC 2007, p96. Further information: WMO Website 6
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn What Is the Greenhouse Effect? Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science Source: IPCC 2007. Further info: WMO Website 7
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn NASA Video on the Greenhouse Effect URL: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZzCA60WnoMk Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science 8 Video: Understand how water vapor, carbon dioxide, and other gases cause the Earth’s greenhouse effect
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn Factors Shaping the Climate – “Climate Forcings” Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science Source: NOAAA National Climatic Data Center 9
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn Natural Climate Fluctuations – Example of El Niño and La Niña Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science Source: NOAA. Further information: WMO Website 10
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn Climate Change and Global Warming Global Warming Refers to the overall warming of the planet, based on average temperature over the entire surface of the Earth Climate Change Refers to changes in climate characteristics, including temperature, humidity, rainfall, wind, and severe weather events over long term periods Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science 11 Further information: WMO Website
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn Observed Change in Surface Temperature (1901–2012) Source: Source: IPCC 2013, p4 12 Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn Tools to Predict and Project Changes in the Climate • A climate prediction or climate “forecast” is an attempt to produce an estimate of the actual evolution of the climate in the future. Climate Prediction • Emissions scenarios describe future releases to the atmosphere of greenhouse gases, aerosols, and other pollutants and, along with information on land use and land cover, provide inputs to climate models. Emissions Scenario • A numerical representation of the climate system based on the physical, chemical and biological properties of its components, their interactions and feedback processes, and accounting for some of its known properties. Climate Model • A climate projection is the simulated response of the climate system to a scenario of future emission or concentration of greenhouse gases and aerosols, generally derived using climate models. Climate Projection Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science Source: IPCC 2013 and IPCC Website. Further info: WMO Website 13
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn Projected Change in Average Surface Temperature Source: IPCC 2013, p20 Scenario RCP 8.5Scenario RCP 2.6 Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science 14 Time Period: 1986-2005 to 2081-2100
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn Climate Change Has an Impact on: • Biodiversity, carbon storage, habitats, …Ecosystems • Agriculture, fresh water, health, …Human systems • Transport, buildings, lifestyle, …Urban systems • Energy, manufacturing, natural capital industries, …Economic systems • Equity, migration, peace and conflict, …Social systems Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science 15
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn Climate Change Science Allows Us to:  Understand how and why the climate is changing  Assess how humans are influencing the climate  Project how the climate may change in the future  Support policy/decision-making and changes in behaviors Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science Source: National Science Foundation Photo Credit: Niwot Ridge lter site/John W. Marr 16
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn Why is Climate Change Science Important?  Sound weather data and forecasts important for:  Short-term planning  Emergency response  Climate models help to forecast long term climate scenarios  Important input for vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning  Fosters climate resilient development and avoids mal-adaption Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science 17
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn History of Climate Change Science • Argument raised that the temperature of the Earth can be augmented by the interposition of the atmosphere1824 • Indication that CO2 and H2O can cause changes in the climate1861 • First proposal of the idea of a man-made greenhouse effect1895 • Proof that doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration resulted in an increase in the mean global temperature of 2°C1938 • Start of interdisciplinary field of carbon cycle science1950s • The high-accuracy measurements of atmospheric CO2 concentration1958 • Other greenhouse gases widely recognised1970s • The first World Climate Conference in Geneva1979 • Establishment of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)1988 • The first IPCC report1990 Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science 18 Further information: BBC Website
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn Anthropogenic Drivers of Climate Change Section 2 Module 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science 19
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn IPCC Video on the Human Influence on the Climate System URL: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6yiTZm0y1YA&feature=youtu.be Video: The video summarizes the main findings of the 2013 IPCC Report on the physical science basis of climate change. 20 Section 2: Anthropogenic Drivers of Climate Change
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn Overview of Greenhouse Gases Regulated under the Kyoto Protocol 21 Greenhouse Gas Global Warming Potential (GWP) (over 100 years) % of Total Anthropogenic GHG Emissions (2010) Carbon dioxide (CO2) 1 76% Methane (CH4) 25 16% Nitrous oxide (N2O) 298 6% Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) 124-14,800 < 2% Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) 7,390-12,200 < 2% Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) 22,800 < 2% Nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) 17,200 < 2% Source: Reproduced from IPCC 2007 and UNEP 2012 Section 2: Anthropogenic Drivers of Climate Change
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn Important Greenhouse Gases: Carbon Dioxide (CO2)  Most important greenhouse gas (contributes ~64% to total radiative forcing by long- lived GHGs)  Half of CO2 emitted by human activities is being absorbed in the biosphere and in the oceans  Rest remains in the atmosphere for hundreds to thousands of years Source: WMO 2013 22 Section 2: Anthropogenic Drivers of Climate Change
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn CO2 Concentration in the Atmosphere and Annual Growth Rates Source: WMO 2013 23 Section 2: Anthropogenic Drivers of Climate Change Since 1750 CO2 concentration in the atmosphere has increased by 40%.
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn Important Greenhouse Gases: Methane (CH4)  Second most significant greenhouse gas (contributes ~18% to total radiative forcing by long-lived GHGs)  Approximately 40% of methane is emitted into the atmosphere by natural sources  About 60% comes from human activities  Stays in the atmosphere for approximately 12 years 24 Section 2: Anthropogenic Drivers of Climate Change Source: IPCC 2007 and WMO 2013
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn CH4 Concentration in the Atmosphere and Annual Growth Rates 25 Section 2: Anthropogenic Drivers of Climate Change Source: WMO 2013 Since 1750 CH4 concentration in the atmosphere has increased by 150%.
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn In Focus: The Carbon Cycle Source: UNEP Section 2: Anthropogenic Drivers of Climate Change 26
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn Important Greenhouse Gases: Nitrous Oxide (N2O)  The third most significant greenhouse gas (contributes ~6% to total radiative forcing by long-lived GHGs)  Stays in the atmosphere for approximately 114 years  Nitrous oxide is emitted into the atmosphere from both natural (about 60%) and anthropogenic sources (approximately 40%) 27 Section 2: Anthropogenic Drivers of Climate Change Source: IPCC 2007 and WMO 2013
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn N2O Concentration in the Atmosphere and Annual Growth Rates 28 Section 2: Anthropogenic Drivers of Climate Change Source: WMO 2013 Since 1750 N2O concentration in the atmosphere has increased by 20%.
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn Important Greenhouse Gases: Fluorinated Gases  Global warming effect up to 23,000 times greater than carbon dioxide  Stay in the atmosphere up to 50,000 years  Three main groups: hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6)  Mainly developed as substitutes for ozone-depleting substances 29 Section 2: Anthropogenic Drivers of Climate Change Source: IPCC 2007. Further info EPA, EC
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn Greenhouse Gases Controlled by the Montreal Protocol  Montreal Protocol aimed to phase out substances that deplete the ozone layer  Substances regulated under the Montreal Protocol are also powerful greenhouse gases  For example, chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) contribute ~12% to radiative forcing by long-lived GHGs 30 Section 2: Anthropogenic Drivers of Climate Change Source: IPCC 2007 and WMO 2013. Further info: NOAA Website Source: EPA
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn Concentration of SF6 and Halocarbons in the Atmosphere 31 Section 2: Anthropogenic Drivers of Climate Change Source: WMO 2013
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn It is extremely likely that more than 50% of the warming since 1951 is due to the increase in greenhouse gases and other anthropogenic forcings together. Human Influence on the Climate System Source: IPCC 2013. Further info: WMO website 32 Section 2: Anthropogenic Drivers of Climate Change
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn Observed Trends and Impacts of Climate Change Section 3 Module 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science 33
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn Observed Surface Temperature Anomaly (1850-2012) Source: IPCC 2013, p4 Section 3: Observed Trends and Impacts of Climate Change 34 Globally averaged land and ocean surface temperature Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850.
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn Observed Change in Annual Precipitation Over Land Source: IPCC 2013, p6 Section 3: Observed Trends and Impacts of Climate Change 35
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn Observed Ocean Warming (1950-2010) Section 3: Observed Trends and Impacts of Climate Change Source: IPCC 2013, p8 36 More than 60% of the net energy increase in the climate system is stored in the upper ocean (period 1971-2010).
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn Observed Ocean Acidification Section 3: Observed Trends and Impacts of Climate Change Source: IPCC 2013, p10 37
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn Observed Sea Level Rise (1900 to 2010) Section 3: Observed Trends and Impacts of Climate Change Source: IPCC 2013, p8 38 Over the period 1901 to 2010, global mean sea level rose by 0.19m.
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn Observed Decrease in Arctic Sea Ice Extent (1900-2010) Section 3: Observed Trends and Impacts of Climate Change Source: IPCC 2013, p8 39
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn Observed Changes in Physical and Biological Systems Section 3: Observed Trends and Impacts of Climate Change 40 Source: UNEP 2009, p13
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn In Focus: Is Climate Change to Blame for Extreme Weather Events? Source: UNEP 2009, p12. Further info: WMO Website Section 3: Observed Trends and Impacts of Climate Change 41 Year NumberofEvents
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn Projected Trends and Impacts of Climate Change Section 4 Module 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science 42
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn In Focus: Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) Section 4: Projected Trends and Impacts of Climate Change 43  Set of four new scenarios defined by the scientific community for the Fifth IPCC Assessment Report.  Four RCPs include:  one mitigation scenario leading to a very low forcing level (RCP2.6),  two stabilization scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP6), and  one scenario with very high greenhouse gas emissions (RCP8.5).  RCPs represent a range of 21st century climate policies.
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn Global surface temperature change for the end of the 21st century is likely to reach 4°C if no action is taken. Projected Change in Average Surface Temperature Source:IPCC2013,p19 Section 4: Projected Trends and Impacts of Climate Change 44
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn Projected Change in Average Precipitation Source: IPCC 2013, p20 Scenario RCP 8.5Scenario RCP 2.6 Section 4: Projected Trends and Impacts of Climate Change 45 Time Period: 1986-2005 to 2081-2100
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn Temperature and Precipitation Projections for the 21st Century URL: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bFqO3_2dYxA Video: This NASA video shows how temperature and precipitation patterns could change throughout the 21st century. Section 4: Projected Trends and Impacts of Climate Change 46
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn Projected Change in Ocean Surface pH Source: IPCC 2013, p20 Scenario RCP 8.5Scenario RCP 2.6 Section 4: Projected Trends and Impacts of Climate Change 47 Time Period: 1986-2005 to 2081-2100
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn Projected Sea Level Rise Source: IPCC 2013, p24 Section 4: Projected Trends and Impacts of Climate Change 48 Global mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21st century.
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn Projected Northern Hemisphere September Sea Ice Extent Source: IPCC 2013, p20 Scenario RCP 8.5Scenario RCP 2.6 Section 4: Projected Trends and Impacts of Climate Change 49 Average 2081-2100
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn Projected Impacts of Climate Change in Africa Source: UNEP 2009, p32 Section 4: Projected Trends and Impacts of Climate Change 50
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn Projected Impacts of Climate Change in Asia Section 4: Projected Trends and Impacts of Climate Change 51 Source: UNEP 2009, p34
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn Projected Impacts of Climate Change in Latin America Section 4: Projected Trends and Impacts of Climate Change 52 Source: UNEP 2009, p37
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Small Islands  Sea level rise exacerbating inundation, storm surge, erosion and other coastal hazards Section 4: Projected Trends and Impacts of Climate Change Source: UNEP 2006, p185 53  Reduced freshwater resources  Invasion by non-native species  Effects on food and income security
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn 54 “Carbon Crossroads” Source: Cambridge University 2013, p 14 Section 4: Projected Trends and Impacts of Climate Change
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn Global Warming by 2100 and Beyond: A Function of Cumulative CO2 Emissions Section 4: Projected Trends and Impacts of Climate Change 55 Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions. Source: IPCC 2013, p26
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn Sources of Scientific DataSection 5 Module 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science 56
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Leading body for the assessment of climate change Established in 1988 by UNEP and WMO Assesses relevant scientific, technical and socio-economic information Does not conduct any research itself Thousands of scientists from all over the world contribute to its work Section 5: Sources of Scientific Data 57
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn Important Reports Published by the IPCCAssessmentReports • First assessment report (FAR) • Second assessment report (SAR) • Third assessment report (TAR) • Fourth assessment report (AR4) • Fifth assessment report (AR5) SpecialReportson: • Renewable energy sources • Extreme events and disasters • Emission scenarios • Aviation • Carbon capture and storage MethodologyReports • Guidance for national greenhouse gas inventories • Guidance for assessing impacts of climate change • Land use, land-use change and forestry TechnicalPapers • Climate change and water • Implications of proposed CO2 emissions limitations • Technologies, policies and measures for mitigating climate change 58 Section 5: Sources of Scientific Data
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn World Meteorological Organization (WMO) – Global Climate Programmes 59 Section 5: Sources of Scientific Data  World Climate Programme (WCP)  World Climate Research Programme  Global Climate Observing System  World Climate Services Programme  Programme of Research on Climate Change Vulnerability, Impacts and Adaptation  Atmospheric Research and Environment Programme (AREP)  Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS)  Advisory Body: Commission for Climatology (CCI)
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn In Focus: Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) 60 URL: http://www.gfcs-climate.org/content/about-gfcs Section 5: Sources of Scientific Data
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn WMO Global Atmosphere Watch: Measurement Stations Worldwide 61 Section 5: Sources of Scientific Data
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn WMO Regional Climate Centers and Outlook Forums 62 Section 5: Sources of Scientific Data  WMO Regional Climate Centres (RCCs)  WMO Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs)
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn National Climate Data  National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS)  Collect and manage national climate data to help with forecasting and predictions Norfolk Island Meterological Office, Source: Australian Government: Bureau of Meteorology 63 Section 5: Sources of Scientific Data
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn Annex Additional Resources Module 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science 64
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn Module Summary 65 Additional Resources  Weather and climate are the results of complex interactions between anthropogenic and natural factors.  Evidence of global climate change include higher average temperatures, changes in precipitation, ocean warming, ocean acidification, sea level rise, decreasing sea ice, and changes in physical and biological systems.  Observed climate change can be linked with the increase of greenhouse gase concentrations in the atmosphere since the industrial revolution.  Global surface temperature change for the end of the 21st century is likely to reach 4°C if no drastic mitigation actions are taken.  Various sources of climate data exist that can support planning for climate change.
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn Useful Links IPCC Website WMO Climate Pages Global Framework For Climate Services (GFCs) World Climate Programme (WCP) World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal NASA Global Climate Change ESA Climate Change Initiative NCAR Community Data Portal Max Planck: The Atmosphere in the Earth System The Guardian Climate Change Pages The National Geographic - Global Warming UN CC:Learn Additional Resources 66
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn Recommended Readings  Cambridge University (2013). Climate Change: Action, Trends and Implications for Business  IPCC (2013). Climate Change 2013, The Physcial Science Basis - Summary for Policymakers  UNEP (2009). Climate Change Science Compendium  UNEP (2009). Climate in Peril, A Popular Guide to the Latest IPCC Reports  WMO (2013). The Global Climate 2001–2010, A Decade of Climate Extremes Additional Resources 67
    • One UN Training Service Platform on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn Main References  IPCC (2007). Climate Change 2007 - Synthesis Report  IPCC (2013). Climate Change 2013, The Physcial Science Basis - Summary for Policymakers  UNEP (2009). Climate in Peril, A Popular Guide to the Latest IPCC Reports  UNEP (2012). The Emissions Gap Report 2012  WMO (2012): Greenhouse Gas Bulletin  WMO (2009). A History of Climate Activities  WMO Website: Climate Additional Resources 68