Era Real Estate Trends September 09

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Trends in Real Estate in Tampa, Florida

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Era Real Estate Trends September 09

  1. 1. Click Here & Upgrade Expanded Features PDF Unlimited Pages Documents Complete Real EstateTrends Real Estate Trends For the Hillsborough & Pasco County Markets September 2009 The data provided has been researched from the Greater Tampa Association of Realtors Mid-Florida Regional Multiple Listing Service. The opinions and forecast of future Real Estate Trends are provided by Mario Polo.
  2. 2. Click Here & Upgrade Expanded Features PDF Unlimited Pages Documents Complete Where Is The Market Going? Where Are We Going September 2009 August numbers are in and we had a 14.6% increase in activity compared to August 2008. Compared to 2008, our market has shown a steady increase in units sold. POSITIVE NEWS: August home sales slowed down when compared to the previous two months, according to statistics released by the Greater Tampa Association of Realtors (GTAR). Sales totaled 1620 for the month. The number of sales reduced the available inventory of homes for sale in the county. The current inventory of 14588 homes for sale is the lowest since April 2006. Commentary continued on page 2 1
  3. 3. Click Here & Upgrade Expanded Features PDF Unlimited Pages Documents Complete Where Is The Market Going? Where Are We Going September 2009 Commentary continued from page 1 The 2009 Tax Credit is definitely increasing sales in the Tampa area. These are positive signs which we will watch closely in the months ahead. The new $8000 Advance Tax Credit has been a failure to date. No system has been implemented that allows the consumer to use their Tax Credit at time of purchase. NOTE: The following is a recap of the listing and sales history from January 2004 through August 2009. This information is provided from our Mid-Florida Regional Multiple Listing Service and most of these transactions occurred in Hillsborough and Pasco Counties. A new vendor is now supplying board members with the sales information. The new vendor has a different method of calculating the data and some differences may appear. 2
  4. 4. Click Here & Upgrade Expanded Features PDF Unlimited Pages Documents Complete Monthly Closed Sales Monthly Closed Sales September 2009 MONTHLY SALES ARE: The number of closed sales that have taken place in a particular month. This is a strong indicator in determining the direction of the market. The data on the following pages suggest that 2009 will be a much better sales year than the previous 2 years. POSITIVE NEWS: August 2009 Closed Sales were 1620 which was a 14.6% increase of August 2008 Closed Sales. Year-to-date Closed Sales have increased by 2140 units, which reflects a 21.3% increase in units sold. 3
  5. 5. Click Here & Upgrade Expanded Features PDF Unlimited Pages Documents Complete Monthly Closed Sales Monthly Closed Sales Line Prepared by Mario Polo 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 2004 1336 1557 2043 2067 2163 2716 2453 2216 1722 1909 1750 2304 2005 1652 1948 2644 2783 3003 3203 2932 2937 2710 2234 2298 2646 2006 1681 1718 2403 2108 2371 2340 1887 1895 1718 1577 1470 1898 2007 1121 1209 1357 1249 1301 1446 1268 1384 1006 1133 977 1099 2008 846 976 1221 1320 1390 1474 1424 1414 1428 1279 1075 1332 2009 1033 1208 1511 1557 1554 1861 1861 1620
  6. 6. Click Here & Upgrade Expanded Features PDF Unlimited Pages Documents Complete Projected Closed Sales Projected Closed Sales September 2009 PROJECTED CLOSED SALES: At the start of 2009, I added my projection of closed sales for 2009. This was in addition to our previous reports. I am somewhat pleased to report that my projections have been exceeded by actual sales. My Year-to-date Projections called for an 18% increase in closed sales through August 2009. Actual sales closed were 21.3% increased over the first six months of 2008. Unfortunately, August closings were below my predictions for August. This was the first month in 2009 that actual sales were below my projection. New FHA guidelines and lower appraisals may be the cause of this. 5
  7. 7. Click Here & Upgrade Expanded Features PDF Unlimited Pages Documents Complete Projected Closed Sales Projected Closed Sales Line Chart Prepared by Mario Polo 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 2007 1121 1209 1357 1249 1301 1446 1268 1384 1006 1133 977 1099 2008 846 976 1221 1320 1390 1474 1424 1414 1428 1279 1075 1332 2009 Projected 900 1100 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1800 1600 1700 1800 2009 Actual 1033 1208 1511 1557 1554 1861 1861 1620
  8. 8. Click Here & Upgrade Expanded Features PDF Unlimited Pages Documents Complete Average Sales Price Average Sales Price September 2009 BAD NEWS: Our average sales price for August 2009 was $165,058 which was a decrease of $11,370 when compared to July 2009. Since January 2009 through August 2009, we have been trending from a low of $157,089 to $173,544. This suggests that values may continue bouncing along in this range for the rest of 2009. 7
  9. 9. Click Here & Upgrade Expanded Features PDF Unlimited Pages Documents Complete Average Sales Price Average Sales Price Line Prepared by Mario Polo $300,000.00 $275,000.00 $250,000.00 $225,000.00 $200,000.00 $175,000.00 $150,000.00 $125,000.00 $100,000.00 Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 2004 $192,910.00 $182,812.00 $180,227.00 $190,980.00 $195,350.00 $215,389.00 $214,660.00 $208,023.00 $206,724.00 $208,495.00 $206,575.00 $209,059.00 2005 $219,186.00 $213,087.00 $225,553.00 $228,809.00 $237,533.00 $257,600.00 $260,221.00 $248,690.00 $257,283.00 $269,403.00 $264,381.00 $261,815.00 2006 $256,189.00 $258,271.00 $261,635.00 $266,072.00 $269,312.00 $287,019.00 $275,266.00 $274,378.00 $263,973.00 $265,923.00 $262,666.00 $259,363.00 2007 $259,065.00 $265,149.00 $254,856.00 $261,731.00 $266,082.00 $273,190.00 $269,058.00 $262,629.00 $249,042.00 $259,460.00 $250,283.00 $267,117.00 2008 $249,025.00 $235,290.00 $230,166.00 $221,384.00 $243,108.00 $227,152.00 $224,055.00 $209,341.00 $205,121.00 $186,425.00 $181,867.00 $183,241.00 2009 $160,775.00 $157,761.00 $165,661.00 $154,103.00 $162,086.00 $170,349.00 $176,428.00 $165,058.00
  10. 10. Click Here & Upgrade Expanded Features PDF Unlimited Pages Documents Complete Current Inventory Current Inventory September 2009 NORMAL MARKET: A normal market is widely considered to be one that has six months of homes available for sale. Our current availability of homes for sale is 14,588, which is 4862 more homes available than our current monthly sales can absorb. A vast improvement compared to August 2008. POSITIVE NEWS: Compared to August 2008, our Current Inventory has decreased by 6086 units. Hopefully this trend will continue. August 2009 compared to July 2009 also reflected a decrease in current inventory of 939 units, a 6% decrease. 9
  11. 11. Click Here & Upgrade Expanded Features PDF Unlimited Pages Documents Complete Current Inventory Current Inventory Line Prepared by Mario Polo 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 2004 9252 5896 5697 5317 5102 4921 4626 4474 4405 4686 4707 4433 2005 4687 4386 4084 3772 3709 3835 4047 4457 5318 6886 7420 7858 2006 9656 10865 12230 13707 14112 16082 17036 17785 16991 18029 18090 17154 2007 18707 19234 19814 20409 20793 20821 20649 20680 20218 20942 20768 19354 2008 21079 21236 21335 21214 20968 20901 20893 20674 20880 20727 20534 19929 2009 19434 19084 18631 17987 17096 16280 15527 14588
  12. 12. Click Here & Upgrade Expanded Features PDF Unlimited Pages Documents Complete Months of Inventory Months of Inventory September 2009 NORMAL MARKET: As stated previously, a normal market is considered to be one that has six months of homes available for sale. This is considered to be a balanced market where neither buyer or seller has an advantage based on available supply. POSITIVE NEWS: When we compare August 2008 to August 2009, we can see a decrease of almost 5.6 months of inventory. A Huge Difference. We expect this trend to continue in the months ahead. When we compare August 2009 to July 2009, our months of inventory continues to decrease. Many would argue that inventory has been our number one problem over the previous 3 years. We can expect values to increase as inventory of homes, short sales and foreclosures decrease. This will be a long, slow process. 11
  13. 13. Click Here & Upgrade Expanded Features PDF Unlimited Pages Documents Complete Months of Inventory Months of Inventory Line Prepared by Mario Polo 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 2004 6.93 3.79 2.79 2.57 2.36 1.81 1.89 2.02 2.56 2.45 2.69 1.92 2005 2.84 2.25 1.54 1.36 1.24 1.2 1.38 1.52 1.96 3.08 3.23 2.97 2006 5.74 6.32 5.09 6.5 5.95 6.87 9.03 9.39 9.89 11.43 12.31 9.04 2007 16.69 15.91 14.6 16.34 15.98 14.4 16.28 14.94 20.1 18.48 21.26 17.61 2008 24.9 21.8 17.5 16.1 15.1 14.2 14.7 14.6 14.6 16.2 19.1 15.0 2009 18.8 15.8 12.3 11.6 11.0 8.7 8.3 9.0
  14. 14. Click Here & Upgrade Expanded Features PDF Unlimited Pages Documents Complete Summation Summation September 2009 OVER ALL POSITIVE NEWS: 1. August 2009 Monthly Sales increased 14.6% compared to August 2008. 2. Compared to August 2008, our Current Inventory has decreased by 6086 units. 3. Months of Inventory, when compared to August 2008, has decreased by 5.6 months. 4. $8000 Tax Credit Bill is starting to improve sales. a. The Federal Government has approved a program to advance the $8000 tax credit at closing. See attached article. http://www2.tbo.com/content/2009/may/13/sp-home-sales-may-get-a-push/ b. Only 2.5 months remain for First Time Home Owners to take advantage of this program. 5. Average Sales Price decreased by 6.4% when compared to July 2009. As Sales improve in 2009, all of these indicators, we believe, may continue to create further positive trends for 2009. Summation continued on page 14 13
  15. 15. Click Here & Upgrade Expanded Features PDF Unlimited Pages Documents Complete Summation Summation September 2009 Summation continued from page 13 The data suggests that our market may improve in the months ahead. We have experienced increased sales and the August numbers suggest that there may be a similar increase in sales in the months ahead. •Our Financial System is still under stress •The $8000 Stimulus for Home Buyers is improving sales for First-Time Homebuyers. The $8000 Advance Tax Credit has not been implemented at this time. •The World Economies are struggling for answers. •September closings will be a further indicator of how strong sales will be this fall. •Short Sales and Foreclosures are still a major challenge to our market. Short Sales are becoming more difficult to complete as lenders have taken a more unrealistic approach to close on these units. We look forward to an exciting year in home sales for Tampa Bay, even though our unemployed numbers are still high and lenders are still being very restrictive with loans. Appraisals have become a major challenge in the past 60 days. 14

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