Road to Analytical Stardom

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Government agencies are using the power of analytics to understand government performance as well as analyze key trends, catch fraud, and drive better citizen engagement. In this session, you will learn tips on using data to effectively do your job better. Learn key analytical strategies that will help you become an analytical star within your agency or organization.

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  • Most popular types of datasets: geography and environment, health and nutrition, and national security and veterans affairs
  • 1 The Individuals with Disabilities Education Act (IDEA) requires states to ensure children with disabilities, to the maximum extent possible, are educated with children who are not disabled. That ideal scenario is considered the “least restrictive environment” under Federal law; therefore, the “most restrictive environment” is one where students with disabilities are educated in total isolation from their non-disabled peers.2 The $154 million includes tuition only, and does not include administrative costs and some expenditures on related services. The total amount spent in the non-public tuition fund in FY 2010 was $167 million: District of Columbia Government FY 2013 Proposed Budget and Financial Plan, Non-Public Tuition, page D-97. http://cfo.dc.gov/cfo/frames.asp?doc=/cfo/lib/cfo/budget/fy2013/chapter/public_education_system/gn_npt_chapter.pdf
  • 3 Graphic on non-public student enrollment extracted from July 20, 2011 SPEDSTAT on Non-Public Tuition.
  • 3 FY 2011 spending graphic extracted from July 20, 2011 SPEDSTAT on Non-Public Tuition4 District of Columbia Government FY 2013 Proposed Budget and Financial Plan, Non-Public Tuition, page D-97. http://cfo.dc.gov/cfo/frames.asp?doc=/cfo/lib/cfo/budget/fy2013/chapter/public_education_system/gn_npt_chapter.pdf
  • 5 Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, HIV Infection Reporting web-article, accessed on July 25, 2012: http://www.cdc.gov/hiv/topics/surveillance/reporting.htm
  • 6 All charts and data extracted from the District of Columbia Department of Health HIV/AIDS, Hepatitis, STD, and TB Administration (HAHSTA) Annual Report 2011: http://doh.dc.gov/doh/frames.asp?doc=/doh/lib/doh/services/administration_offices/hiv_aids/pdf/HAHSTA_ANNUAL_REPOR_2012.pdf
  • 6 All charts and data extracted from the District of Columbia Department of Health HIV/AIDS, Hepatitis, STD, and TB Administration (HAHSTA) Annual Report 2011: http://doh.dc.gov/doh/frames.asp?doc=/doh/lib/doh/services/administration_offices/hiv_aids/pdf/HAHSTA_ANNUAL_REPOR_2012.pdf
  • 6 All charts and data extracted from the District of Columbia Department of Health HIV/AIDS, Hepatitis, STD, and TB Administration (HAHSTA) Annual Report 2011: http://doh.dc.gov/doh/frames.asp?doc=/doh/lib/doh/services/administration_offices/hiv_aids/pdf/HAHSTA_ANNUAL_REPOR_2012.pdf
  • 7. Best Places to Work from: http://bestplacestowork.org/BPTW/rankings/detail/HS188.Retention from Federal Employee Viewpoint Survey
  • 9 FEMASTAT Presentation on Employee Satisfaction, December 7, 2011.
  • 9 FEMASTAT Presentation on Employee Satisfaction, December 7, 2011.
  • For State and Local Prospects
  • Road to Analytical Stardom

    1. 1. Road to AnalyticalStardom: Using Dataof All Sizes toIlluminate InsightsMelissa Kline-LeeChris MusialekCarter HewgleyDennis Still
    2. 2. Introduction #nextgengov
    3. 3. Driving Innovation with Open Data Chris Musialek July 26th, 2012
    4. 4. Data.gov • Open government flag project for the administration • Provides instant access to over 450,000 datasets in easy to use formats • Contributions from UN, World Bank, and 172 agencies • Encourage development of innovative applications • Drive innovation and“A Strategy for American knowledge use acrossInnovation” publishedSeptember 2009 the globe May 2012 4
    5. 5. Be an Analytics StarThe smartest people don‟t work for youHarness the energy of the public to do amazing things May 2012 5
    6. 6. Creating a Data Ecosystem1. Make data discoverable – and give it freely to developers, scientists, and citizens2. Connect the community – to allow collaboration through social media, events, platforms3. Provide an infrastructure – built on standards – backed by APIs4. Encourage developers – to create apps that empower people‟s choices – with easy documentation5. Tell data stories – of what others have done/can do May 2012 6
    7. 7. Easy to Find Data• Keyword search• Faceted search • Filter by category • Filter by type May 2012 7
    8. 8. Open Communities Community Health ✓ Law ✓ Energy ✓ Education ✓ Ocean ✓ Safety ✓ BusinessUSA ✓ Manufacturing ✓ Open Data ✓ Semantic Web ✓ Developers ✓ Ethics ✓ Cities Research and Development Human rights + many more…May 2012 8
    9. 9. Cool Things Communities Highlight• Data that community experts have deemed best-of- the-best• Apps that transform data in understandable ways to help people make decisions• Challenges inspire citizens to create new and unthought-of ways to visualize and present data• Blogs that tell stories about uses of data• Maps providing interesting visualization ideas and ways to reuse those map services May 2012 9
    10. 10. Challenges Spark Ideas• Energy.Data.gov connects works with challenges across the nation to integrate federal data and bring government personnel to code-a-thons• www.challenge.gov May 2012 10
    11. 11. Data APIs• API Catalog• API Key Management – Register once, use everywhere across the Federal government – Basic API Key Auth • Central Proxy capability • Key validation service – Basic application statistics• Developer Documentation – Use of templates describing parameters May 2012 11
    12. 12. Open Government Platform• www.opengovplatform.org• Bilateral partnership with Government of India’s National Informatics Centre• Open source version of Data.gov• Offered free (as in speech and beer) to any city or nation• Government participation in Open Source Software July 28, 2011 12
    13. 13. Open Government Platform (cont’d)• Public commits on Github• Public bug tracker• Public mailing list where discussion happens• Source code on Github – https://github.com/opengovplatform• US Data.gov has implemented a component of the platform already onto its site• Coordinating with other open data platforms and data providers July 28, 2011 13
    14. 14. Managing Open Data Tomorrow• Bring data up and out of government to the public ★• Make data accessible and linked ★★★★★• Provide simple ways to visualize the data• Create communities to understand and apply data• Connect and collaborate with small businesses, industry, and academia to drive innovation• Develop open source open government data platform with India for global use and further community development• Share with others to understand global issues Be the change you want to see in the world – Ghandi May 2012 14
    15. 15. Be Change Drivers!1. Get others in your agency excited about making interesting datasets public2. Create a challenge of your own to launch innovation3. Get connected with the Data.gov communities - there are over 22 now! May 2012 15
    16. 16. Let’s work together to set the data free! www.Data.Gov christopher.musialek@gsa.gov @usdatagov @cmoose May 2012 16
    17. 17. LETTING DATA LEAD DECISIONSImproving Government Performance at the Local, State andFederal levelsCarter HewgleyFEMASTAT DirectorDepartment of Homeland Security July 26, 2012
    18. 18. LOCAL PERSPECTIVEPromoting Inclusion at DC Public Schools (DCPS)  In 2009, ~26% of special education students in DCPS were being educated in the most “restrictive environment”1  In FY 2010, the District spent $154 million on private tuition for these students2
    19. 19. DCPS reduced non-public enrollment by Non-Public Enrollmentimproving and analyzing student data, and declined by 23% or 596 students in two schoolthen targeting interventions toward trends years through:and needs3 • Increased graduation rates among older students • Preventing younger At the beginning of SY 2009, placements through more inclusive practices at their DCPS was not tracking home schools enrollment data on non-public students – so we built a tracking system and started • Improved accuracy of studying the data. enrollment records
    20. 20. Reduced non-public enrollment createdsignificant savings, which could beredirected toward inclusive services withinpublic schools 3,4 DCPS began comparing enrollment and expenditure data to reduce Expenditures on Non- Public Tuition dropped errors, waste, fraud and abuse by $19 million or 12% between FY 2010 and FY 2011
    21. 21. STATE PERSPECTIVEReducing HIV Transmissions in the District ofColumbia  In 1999, the CDC recommended all states use confidential names-based reporting of HIV testing/transmission to improve surveillance accuracy 5  As late as 2006, DC Government had not transitioned to names-based reporting of HIV transmissions  Based on AIDS data, it was estimated that 5% of the District‟s population had HIV or AIDS in 2006 – the highest infection rate in the nation
    22. 22. Until 2007, DC government‟s response  DC officialsto the HIV/AIDS Epidemic was not knew AIDS prevalence wasdriven by sound epidemiological higher than anysurveillance on HIV transmissions6 other city or state, but did not empirically HIV Cases, Deaths, and Prevalence in DC know new 2000 16,000 infections were Newly Diagnosed Cases 12466 14,000 on the rise Living HIV Cases 11,552 1500 12,000 Newly Diagnosed 10,000 1332 Deaths 1000 8,000 1103 6,000 Living HIV Cases  Many assumed 500 4,000 it was a 399 423 2,000 “younger” 0 0 epidemic 2006 2007 600 New HIV Cases in DC by Mode of Transmission  Federal law 500 prohibited DC fromNewly Diagnosed MSM/IDU 400 IDU implementing Cases 300 Risk Not Identified needle 200 Heterosexual Contact exchange 100 MSM programs 0 2006 2007
    23. 23. As HIV transmission data became more accurate, the Districtstarted evidence-based interventions that slowedtransmission rates considerably6 New HIV Cases in 2010 (by age) HIV Cases, Deaths, and Prevalence in DC 2000 15,000 Living HIV Cases 3%New HIV Cases 5% 1500 10,000 15% 13-19 1332 1000 1103 1149 29% 20-29 853 835 5,000 30-39 500 399 423 40-49 343 288 207 0 0 24% 50-59 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 >60 24% Newly Diagnosed Deaths Living HIV Cases New HIV Cases in DC by Mode of Transmission 600 Among new cases, 20- 500 somethings account for the largest share ofNew HIV Cases 400 MSM/IDU new infections – so IDU 300 Risk Not Identified prevention strategies 200 Heterosexual Contact must account for 100 MSM behavior trends in this 0 age cohort. 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
    24. 24. District youth age 15-19 are at growing risk of transmitting chlamydia andgonorrhea, so understanding transmission behavior is key to preventingfurther HIV prevalence in that age cohort.6 DC Chlamydia Cases by Age and Year100% 191 311 368 306 280 350 641 693 658 495 80% 465 865 1007 878 712 >40 60% 1985 1980 1650 30-39 1041 1895 25-29 40% 20-24 2694 2610 2351 15-19 20% 1239 2215 0-14 0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 DC Gonorrhea Cases by Age and Year100% 260 230 167 216 26780% 324 369 364 328 244 310 >40 9.5% of the District‟s 370 36560% 299 368 30-39 25-29 population is age 13- 732 60040% 512 693 712 20-24 19, and interventions that20% 495 638 880 871 743 15-19 13-14 prevent gonorrhea and 0% 0-12 chlamydia may also 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 lessen HIV prevalence
    25. 25. FEDERAL PERSPECTIVEImproving Employee Satisfaction at the FederalEmergency Management Agency (FEMA)  In 2010, FEMA ranked #206 out of 224 agencies on the Best Places to Work (BPTW)  In 2011, FEMA‟s position fell to #231 out of 240 ranked agencies 7, 8 Are you Considering Leaving in the DHS & FEMA BPTW Score Next Year? 100% 58.6 56.6 54.4 56.2 55.9 41% 49.1 49.8 51.1 48.3 80% 47.5 YES 60% 40% 71% 67% 59% 20% No No No 0% 2005 2007 2009 2010 2011 Government DHS FEMA No DHS FEMA Yes, to take another job within the Federal Government Yes, to retire Yes, other Yes, to take another job outside the Federal Government
    26. 26. FEMA uses a performance management processcalled FEMASTAT to evaluate progress againststrategic objectives – improving employeesatisfaction is a major strategic priority  69% of FEMA‟s workforce was not included in the First survey pool FEMASTAT evaluated who was surveyed9  White men at the GS 13-15 level were slightly over- represented among survey respondents  Respondents were representative of a cross-section of Next FEMASTAT the agency‟s analyzed the representative programs nature of respondents
    27. 27. To accurately highlight negative and positive  Three types oftrends, FEMASTAT analyzed scores three analysisdifferent ways for all 71 survey questions 9 included:  Highest & Lowest Scores  Biggest Increases & Decreases  Largest variance from DHS or Government averages  The analysis revealed two areas of strength and three opportunities for improvement  FEMA senior leadership reviewed the analysis and developed actions to address concerns about leadership, fairness, and professional development
    28. 28. In December 2010, FEMA senior leaders decided on thefollowing actions:  Increase transparency by televising key senior leadership meetings (including FEMASTAT)  Seek more employee input by expanding the Employee Viewpoint Survey to 100% of FEMA‟s workforce  Enhance visibility of FEMA‟s professional development and emerging leader programs  Promote fairness within the employee awards program by setting standards for qualification, allocation and distribution  Establish a two-way “culture of communication” at FEMA Employees are currently completing the 2012 survey and FEMASTAT will review those results in December 2012 to evaluate the impact of these decisions.
    29. 29. In summary:  At every level of government, in every organization, you can use data to drive decision making and to demonstrate the impact of those decisions  The key is to (1) pick a problem you want to solve, (2) commit your organization to solving it, and (3) demand that data be used to inform decisions along the way  Sometimes this requires investing in the data first  “Optimism, without data, is just an emotion.” - - Dan Tangherlini, City Administrator, Washington DC, 2007-2009  Questions?
    30. 30. REFERENCES & NOTESCitation Slide Reference/Note The Individuals with Disabilities Education Act (IDEA) requires states to ensure children with disabilities, to the maximum extent possible, are educated with children who are not disabled. That ideal scenario is considered 1 2 the “least restrictive environment” under Federal law; therefore, the “most restrictive environment” is one where students with disabilities are educated in total isolation from their non-disabled peers. The $154 million includes tuition only, and does not include administrative costs and some expenditures on related services. The total amount spent in the non-public tuition fund in FY 2010 was $167 million: District of 2 2 Columbia Government FY 2013 Proposed Budget and Financial Plan, Non-Public Tuition, page D-97. http://cfo.dc.gov/cfo/frames.asp?doc=/cfo/lib/cfo/budget/fy2013/chapter/public_education_system/gn_npt_chapte r.pdf 3 3, 4 Graphic on non-public student enrollment extracted from July 20, 2011 SPEDSTAT on Non-Public Tuition. District of Columbia Government FY 2013 Proposed Budget and Financial Plan, Non-Public Tuition, page D-97. 4 4 http://cfo.dc.gov/cfo/frames.asp?doc=/cfo/lib/cfo/budget/fy2013/chapter/public_education_system/gn_npt_chapte r.pdf Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, HIV Infection 5 5 Reporting web-article, accessed on July 25, 2012: http://www.cdc.gov/hiv/topics/surveillance/reporting.htm All charts and data extracted from the District of Columbia Department of Health HIV/AIDS, Hepatitis, STD, and TB Administration (HAHSTA) Annual Report 2011: 6 6, 7, 8 http://doh.dc.gov/doh/frames.asp?doc=/doh/lib/doh/services/administration_offices/hiv_aids/pdf/HAHSTA_ANNU AL_REPOR_2012.pdf 7 9 Best Places to Work from: http://bestplacestowork.org/BPTW/rankings/detail/HS18 8 9 Retention data from Federal Employee Viewpoint Survey 9 10, 11 FEMASTAT Presentation on Employee Satisfaction, December 7, 2011.
    31. 31. GovDelivery Analytic Star Potential – Go for the Extraordinary NextGen Conference – July 2012 Dennis R. Still, Client Performance Analyst31
    32. 32. Where would you like to fall? AVERAGE = a typical amount, rate, degree; norm EXTRAORDINARY = exceptional in character, amount, extent, degree; noteworthy; remarkable Trying to push ourselves to think beyond what is “average, comfortable, or easy” is difficult. At GovDelivery, we believe that governments can achieve extraordinary levels of engagement with their citizens. Helping them is what we do best.32
    33. 33. How GovDelivery Works1. Utilize existing 2. Place 3. Public selects 4. PersonalizedWeb and Social subscription links specific types of messages are sentMedia Content. and maximize information of automatically via signup rates. interest they want to email, SMS, social receive. media, & RSS Content from Distribute content in across Broad range of topics across multiple channels; Website and enterprise; connect across post to social outside Social the entire agency or level of media, enable Media government to reach more sharing on consumer web Properties people33
    34. 34. Settling for Average City A - Average Opens & Clicks (Jan - Nov 2011)* Average Open Rate Average Click Rate 35.25% 12.12% GovDelivery Clients by Market (Jan - Nov 2011)* Average Open Rate - All Average Click Rate - All 25.25% 10.25% Average Open Rate - State & Local Average Click Rate - State & Local 24.20% 7.20% Average Open Rate - Federal Average Click Rate - Federal 45.40% 22.40% Average Open Rate - Europe Average Click Rate - Europe 10.00% 7.10% *Data is not real and only presented for demonstration purposes Findings:  City A has much better Average Open & Click Rates than all other clients34
    35. 35. Presenting Extraordinary – When you can do this... County # of New Subscribers # topicsPopulation Subscribers Per Month offered Automation Top Topics • Sheriff ~250,000 • Bid invitations • Employment Launched: 6,595 150-250 82 90%+ • News March ‟ 07 • Crime • Public Health • Commissioner‟ s Newsletter ~200,000 • Planning notices Launched: 4,728 250-300 35 ~25% • Safe Kids • Calendar of Events April ‟ 10 • Solid Waste • Public Library ~170,000 • Employment • Parks Launched: 3,211 150-200 55 ~80% • Farm Museum July ‟ 06 • Capital Projects • County Newsletter • Parks • Jobs ~90,000 • Employment • Crime Launched: 9,886 125-150 65 ~50% • Camping January ‟ 07 • Taxes • Flood alerts • Public Health City A • Jobs • Tax Forfeited Properties 147,076 9,508 75-125 117 ~75% • Convictions / Ten Most Wanted Launched: • BidSeptember ‘01 • Calendar Compare City A to other cities and counties of comparable population size. Benchmark their performance against comparable agencies.35
    36. 36. Presenting Extraordinary – Benchmarking cont. Avg. New # of Subscribers / # topics Population Subscribers Month offered Automation Top Topics • General Newsletter ~300,000 >500 • Arts Council • Libraries Launch: 158,676 (some months over 139 ~60% • Jobs October ‟ 06 1,000) • Utilities • Parks/Rec/Museums • Events ~250,000 >400 • Library • Services & Facilities Launch: 45,007 (some months over 109 ~70% • Jobs March ‟ 03 1,000) • Public Auction • Elected Of f icials ~135,000 >400 • Seasonal Programs (Parks) • Leagues / Events Launch: 26,648 (some months over 105 ~50% • Theatre / Culture Sept. ‟ 09 2,000) • Community Programs • Community events ~260,000 ~20% • General newsletter Launch: 56,884 1,000 – 2,000 203 (still adding • Elected of ficials • Public health February ‟ 11 automation) • Parks • Parks ~120,000 >350 • Jobs Launch 31,316 (some months over 150 ~80% • Emergencies • Weather Response August „ 07 1,000) • Neighborhood Newsletter Now, compare City A to Top Performers within criteria. Benchmark their36 performance against those agencies – power of influence.
    37. 37. Presenting Extraordinary: Key Observations From Benchmark Comparison City A performs high on many levels • Large # of topics offered • Topics consistent with what works in other local governments with minor exceptions Clear room for improvement, particularly in growing outreach base • More recent implementations have higher new subscriber rates • Newsletters, events, health, and parks content all do very well in top performing local governments Highlight what department/agency is doing well – praise those efforts. At the same time, highlight the importance of how they might improve based upon metrics accessed. Make it actionable!37
    38. 38. Presenting Extraordinary – GovDelivery Network • 114,247 new subscribers in first half of 2011 • Accounts using the network got 50% of new subscribers from the GovDelivery Network • The Governor of TX gets over 90% of new 17 Texas Agencies subscribers from the GovDelivery Network use GovDelivery 1.5M total subscribers • Los Alamos National Laboratories gets almost all of its new subscribers via cross promotion with NASA • Even small percentage increases in new subscribers via GovDelivery Network can lead to thousands of engaged consumers of agency information – creating mission value38
    39. 39. Presenting Extraordinary: Strong Vital Stats 2012 TotalImpact: Subscribers 125,1121) Agency A continues to GovDelivery Total Network experience significant Subscribers Subscriptions growth in 605,250 55,980 subscribers, opens, and clicks.2) The Average Engagement Agency Rate for Q1 2012 for Federal Current A Total Engagement Messages Agencies is 52%. In the last Rate Sent 15,498,172 90 Days, Agency A’s 65% Engagement Rate is 65%. Total Opens Total Clicks 792,456 344,16039
    40. 40. Presenting Extraordinary: Pre/Post Testing Weighted Average Growth Across Testing: Network Givers = +146% Network Receivers = +45% Network Givers = +125% Beta 1 (12 accounts) Switched: 4/30/2012 Network Receivers = +45% Network Givers = +85% Network Receivers = +26% Beta 2 (30 accounts) Switched: 5/25/2012 Network Givers = +117% Network Receivers = +52% All Other Accounts Switched: 6/6/201240
    41. 41. Presenting Extraordinary: New Tools & Impact Tax Tips - Web App & UI - Since Launch 2/8/20121,000 900 61% Average of New Subscribers coming via Web App 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 UI New Subscribers App New Subscribers 41
    42. 42. Movement from Average to Extraordinary Examine & Understand What Data You Have Move Toward Leveraging That Data For Better Understanding42
    43. 43. Going Beyond Descriptive Analyses Analysis: Two Streams Descriptive Predictive Concerned with summarizing the properties of a sample of Apply mathematical theory of probability to make decisions observations/actions – What has occurred in the past and about the likely properties of populations – What can we do can be counted in some way to help department/agency achieve better results Mean/Median Sums/Averages Percentages Order Move toward this Try to move away from just descriptive patterns – predictive model need to get data integrity established to allow organization to mature in terms of analyses43
    44. 44. Conclusion Strive for Extraordinary – Think about impact for your intended audience, examine what questions you want to answer (hypothesis) Don’t Settle – For bad data or lack of data, drive for results by examining what you have and where you might find more Start “Small” and Work Toward “Big” – Big Data can be daunting at first, think about what you can do right now with smaller data, just start examining44

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