• Share
  • Email
  • Embed
  • Like
  • Private Content
GovLoop training analytics
 

GovLoop training analytics

on

  • 1,030 views

 

Statistics

Views

Total Views
1,030
Views on SlideShare
1,030
Embed Views
0

Actions

Likes
0
Downloads
16
Comments
0

0 Embeds 0

No embeds

Accessibility

Upload Details

Uploaded via as Adobe PDF

Usage Rights

© All Rights Reserved

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Processing…
Post Comment
Edit your comment

    GovLoop training analytics GovLoop training analytics Presentation Transcript

    • Analytics to Outcomes:Leveraging Predictive and Prescriptive Analytics September 8, 2011 Brought to you by:
    • Today’s SpeakersSteve ResslerPresident and FounderGovLoopChrister JohnsonIBM Global Business Services, PartnerAdvanced Analytics Services Leader, N. AmericaShaun BarryIBM Global Business Services, Associate PartnerGlobal Leader for Fraud Management Solutions
    • Housekeepingo Twitter Hash Tag: #gltraino At any time during the next hour, if you would like to submit a question, just look for the "Ask a question" console. The presenters will field your questions at the end.o If you have any technical difficulties during the Webinar, click on the Help button located below the slide window and you’ll receive technical assistance.o And finally, after this session is complete, we will be e- mailing you a link to the archived version of this Webinar, so you can view it again or share it with a colleague and a GovLoop training certificate.
    • IBM Advanced Analytics SoftwareAnalytics to Outcomes:Leveraging Predictive and Prescriptive Analytics September 8, 2011 Christer Johnson IBM Global Business Services, Partner Advanced Analytics Services Leader, N. America Shaun Barry IBM Global Business Services, Associate Partner Global Leader for Fraud Management Solutions 4
    • IBM Advanced Analytics & OptimizationWhat types of questions do we try to solve with Advanced Analytics? Analytics Sophistication What happened? What could happen if? Simulation Captured How can we How many, achieve the best how often, outcome? Detected where? What Optimization trends will Inferred What continue? exactly is Forecasting the problem?Use Structured Data & Simplified to be How can weUnstructured Data consumable and What will achieve the best happen• Numeric accessible to everyone, What next if? outcome and optimized for their actions are address variability?• Text Predictive needed? Stochastic specific purpose, at the Modelling Optimization• Image point of impact, to• Audio deliver better decisions Descriptive Predictive Prescriptive• Video and actions through: Analytics Analytics Analytics 5
    • IBM Advanced Analytics & Optimization Three Areas of Benefit for Analytics Solutions Data Infrastructure Productivity Analytics Simplification / Take-out cost and BAO Foundation improve efficiency Finance / Risk / Fraud Government Analytics Efficiency Improve control, bottom Supply Chain / line and stop losses Operational Analytics Citizen Service Government Analytics Responsiveness Better service Human Capital citizens needs Analytics 6
    • IBM Advanced Analytics & Optimization Three Areas of Benefit for Analytics Solutions Data Infrastructure Productivity Analytics Simplification / Take-out cost and BAO Foundation improve efficiency Finance / Risk / Fraud Government Analytics Efficiency Improve control, bottom Supply Chain / line and stop losses Operational Analytics Citizen Service Government Analytics Responsiveness Better service Human Capital citizens needs Analytics 7
    • IBM Advanced Analytics & Optimization Veterans Administration (VA) Agent Orange Fast Track Claims Processing System Background Challenges  Second largest federal agency  VA has a large disability benefits paper claims supporting our nation’s veterans backlog that continues to grow, even with 15,000 people manually processing.  500,000 staff, and 15,000 paper claims processors  Needed a way to quickly process Agent Orange related claims  58 Regional Office processing centers  “…we have to get beyond just sort of the brute-force approach to this and … get better business processes, automation in place.” -General Eric Shinseki, VA Secretary 5/14/10 Solution Benefits and Results  Fast Track is comprised of:  System up and running in 120 days –An external website which both Veterans and  34,000 claims (150,000 documents) Medical Providers access to support information processed through the Fast Track system or evidence to a claim.  Reduced the VA end-to-end claim processing –An internal VA FileNet system where users can process these disability claims. time without decreasing the quality and consistency of the program via Fast Track –An IBM scanning facility in Rocket Center, WV where hardcopies can be digitized and included electronic claims with the Veteran‟s claim and supporting  Veterans have 24x7 online access to the evidence. status of their claims and now have a much less complex application process 8
    • IBM Advanced Analytics & Optimization A Large US Bank Current State: “I have an offer – let me find a customer to sell to” Offer Offer Direct Mail Relevance? DEPOSITS Offer Offer Awareness? Value?Customer Needs & Segment Strategies Offer Offer Mass Market | Mass Affluent | Small Business Understanding? Mass Market BC Clarity?  “You do not know me & ask me multiple times about the Offer Offer same thing.” CARD Offer Offer Agent, IVR Mass Affluent Offer Offer  They don’t really know me - Customers are offered products that may feel irrelevant and Offer Offer Online, Email disconnected vs. solutions MORTGAGE Offer Offer Small Business Offer Offer  “I use Large US Bank for ATM convenience but primarily use another bank. “ Offer Offer  “The Bank doesn’t understand INVESTMEN Mobile, SMS me, my industry or my business. “ Offer Offer TS  The Bank’s associates can’t Offer Offer address all of my business needs Chat 9 9
    • IBM Advanced Analytics & Optimization A Large US Bank Target Vision: “I have a customer – what do they need most?” “The bank knows CIM me and values Direct Mail DEPOSITS Governance, my relationship“ Prioritization Customer Needs & Segment Strategies Mass Market | Mass Affluent | Small Business & BC “They seem to Optimization Brilliant! know what I CARD need and when I Agent, IVR need it.” “The bank isn’t MORTGAGE Online, Email always selling something.” “They always get ATM INVESTMENTS me to the right place and never Customer Analytics fail to follow up.” Customer Mobile, SMS Experience & Treatment “There is real Strategies Integrated Data value to me in Chat getting all my needs met by one bank.” 1010
    • IBM Advanced Analytics & Optimization Three Areas of Benefit for Analytics Solutions Data Infrastructure Productivity Analytics Simplification / Take-out cost and BAO Foundation improve efficiency Finance / Risk / Fraud Government Analytics Efficiency Improve control, bottom Supply Chain / line and stop losses Operational Analytics Citizen Service Government Analytics Responsiveness Better service Human Capital citizens needs Analytics 11
    • IBM Advanced Analytics & OptimizationReal-Time Pattern Recognition of Streaming Data in a Neo-Natal Unit(Toronto Hospital)
    • IBM Advanced Analytics & OptimizationTransforming Education – Gwinnett County Public Schools Client Gwinnett County Public Schools (GCPS) Industry Education Challenge Education delivery has traditionally been „brick and mortar‟ classrooms and instruction by textbook. Typically student challenges are identified after they occur. GCPS‟ vision is to identify student challenges and opportunities for improvement before they occur – applying the appropriate interventions or enrichment to enhance learning for each student. Solution For a pilot student population, IBM developed a model to identify factors that potentially predict a student‟s success in Algebra. These predictors were used to determine „at-risk‟ student groups, and thus assist educators in determining the remediation and/or instructional guidance for different student populations. Benefits The results of the analytical model convinced GCPS to expand the scope to ensure integration of predictive analytics into the future teaching and learning model for the school system. In addition, with the integration of appropriate instructional content, GCPS has embarked on a path toward differentiated and focused student instruction based on student needs – potentially before the needs are identified. The goal is to enhance student learning and ultimately improve student achievement. 13
    • IBM Advanced Analytics & OptimizationNorth Carolina Medicaid – Fraud and Overpayment Detection Client State of North Carolina Industry Government Challenge The current business process and technology used to fight fraud, waste, and abuse in Medicaid is ineffective – producing only around $25 million annually in recoupment letters. This leakage, combined with a significant state budget deficit, motivated the state to aggressively pursue cost takeout projects. Solution The state implemented a comprehensive fraud analytics solution, based on IBM technologies. The IBM solution examines claims for suspicious patterns of behavior, and it identifies organized criminal rings and collusive behaviors. Benefits $75 million in recoupment letters issued in first 12 months 14
    • IBM Advanced Analytics & Optimization An example of how this analysis works  SCHEME – Services Not Rendered 15
    • IBM Advanced Analytics & Optimization An example of how this analysis works  SCHEME – Pop-up Provider/Storefront Scheme 16
    • IBM Advanced Analytics & Optimization An example of how this analysis works  SCHEME – Doctor Shopping 17
    • IBM Advanced Analytics & OptimizationState of New York – Income Tax Refund FraudChallenge New York wanted to enhance current audit case selection methods for detection of audit issues at the time a return is processed. Specific audit programs include Earned Income Credit, Dependent Child Care Credit, Itemized Deductions, Wage/Withholding, and Identity Theft.Solution IBM‟s fraud analytics solutions. Our solution applies business rules and predictive models to categorize and score returns nightly and identifies the „next best case‟ for audit selection. In addition, a separate web based portal provides screening and resolution of cases.Benefits  $1.6 billion increase in refund denials  Increased screener and auditor productivity  “Honest” taxpayers have refunds quickly processed with less hassleLessons  Real-time analytics are complex but provide great benefitLearned  Benefits can be gained without substantial increase in staff  Don‟t believe the “we‟re already doing that” argument  Having an aggressive Business Champion is essential 18
    • IBM Advanced Analytics & OptimizationAetna – Medical Cost Trend Analysis Client Aetna Industry Healthcare Challenge With the goal to better manage medical cost, Aetna wanted to enhance its capability to identify and diagnose changes or patterns in cost trends in a more automated and timely basis. Solution For a pilot set of data, IBM built a multiplicative regression model that can simultaneously evaluate the impact that all possible factors have on changes to overall medical costs. Used optimization to determine the best fit regression model. Benefits While only in pilot, the results of the model were enough to convince Aetna to expand the scope of the model and pursue a path towards implementing the model as part of their ongoing cost trending analysis 19
    • IBM Advanced Analytics & Optimization An example of how this analysis worksLet‟s say that:2008 Cost = $100 and 2009 Cost = $180 $ Cost Impact $ Cost of Factor 1 = Impact of $60 Factor 2 = $30 20
    • IBM Advanced Analytics & Optimization An example of how this analysis worksLet‟s say that: 2008 Cost = $100 and 2009 Cost = $180 Total Cost Impact of Factor 1 & Factor 2 Factor 1 Factor 2 Individual Cost Individual Cost Impact = $60 Impact = $30 Factor 1 Factor 2 remaining impact, Combined remaining with Factor 2 Cost Impact impact, with removed Factor 1 $50 $10 removed $20 21
    • IBM Advanced Analytics & Optimization Network Modelling and Optimization at USPS  Developed optimization and simulation models (NIA) used to design future network structure  Developing a transportation optimization and (NIA) planning system (TOPS) to improve utilization Strategic and reduce costs of the USPS‟s transportation • Node Optimization network Tactical (TOPS) • Route Plans & Schedules  Benefits to the Client • Routing Decision Rules – Estimated operational savings of 10- 20 percent – Better understanding of excess capacity Operational • Dispatch & Routing Execution (SAMS) • Track & Trace Visibility (SASS) Operations Statistics Economics Research Data Mining / Data Cost / Benefit Analysis Optimization Analysis Econometrics Simulation Estimating actual mail Micro Economics Discrete-Event flows 22
    • IBM Advanced Analytics & Optimization USPS Highway Corridor Analytical Program Client U.S. Postal Service (USPS) Challenge Needed to identify quick-hit savings for the plant to plant transportation for a region of the country by increasing utilization on each truck. Solution Built an optimization model using ILOG CPLEX to evaluate transportation between approximately 20 sorting centers. HCAP was designed as a transportation optimizer to identify opportunities to consolidate USPS highway transportation in order to save costs. Complex data mining and predictive analytics were required to estimate mail volume flows. Benefits Within the first year of implementation, USPS realized transportation cost savings that resulted in a 400% return on investment. 23
    • IBM Advanced Analytics & Optimization Three Areas of Benefit for Analytics Solutions Data Infrastructure Productivity Analytics Simplification / Take-out cost and BAO Foundation improve efficiency Finance / Risk / Fraud Government Analytics Efficiency Improve control, bottom Supply Chain / line and stop losses Operational Analytics Citizen Serivce Government Analytics Responsiveness Better service Human Capital citizens needs Analytics 24
    • IBM Advanced Analytics & Optimization Background – U.S. Social Security Administration (SSA) Number of Recipients: 12.4 Million Total benefits: $105 Billion Administrative costs: $5 Billion 25
    • IBM Advanced Analytics & Optimization Historically - Lengthy Disability Approval Process 97 days to 17 months 738,000 cases in backlog Initial Federal Application Reconsideration Hearing Appeals District Court Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5 Up to 5 years 26
    • IBM Advanced Analytics & Optimization Quick Disability Determination (QDD) – an new process Clearly Disabled Decision and QDD Unit benefits in 11 days Scoring Model: All Is Applicant Applications Clearly Normal Disabled? Decision: 97 Adjudication days on and average, up Not Clearly application to 5 years Disabled levels • SSA conceived of a new • Request additional process medical records • Create a centralized • Request medical examination team for expedited review of cases • Automatically send workload to this group 27
    • IBM Advanced Analytics & Optimization The Specific Algorithms Used for QDD Two were needed: Robust Risk Minimizer Misspelled Vocabulary (RRM) Correction (MVC) • Analysis tool that “reads” the • Essentially a spell checker text from the allegations field and numeric data found on • Ensures the RRM does not the application use the two or more different spellings of the same • Computes the probability of impairment as if they were being a QUICK DECISION totally different impairments • Example of a Probabilistic Classifier 28
    • IBM Advanced Analytics & Optimization Social Security Administration – Disability Benefits Has reduced the cycle time to process 10% of applications for disability from: 97 days to 20 days Has used predictive modeling to save $2 billion in disability benefit renewal costs since 2000. 29
    • IBM Advanced Analytics & OptimizationFederal Housing Administration – Insurance Pricing Client FHA Industry Government Agency: Mortgage Finance Challenge To accommodate the growing baby boomer population and changes in the housing market, Federal Housing Administration (FHA) re-analyzed the reverse mortgage (HECM) design and pricing structure to better align insurance prices to the current conditions. Solution IBM developed a simulation model for mortgage loan performance of various premium structures. Then, IBM integrated the simulation with an optimization algorithm to determine the optimal pricing structure. IBM also leveraged grid-computing technology to boost computation power and complete the re-pricing effort in a timely manner Benefits FHA used the model to determine an array of insurance pricing and risk management options to lower front-end insurance cost for the borrowers, increasing the program‟s attractiveness to new enrollees. It also strengthened the financial soundness of the program, allowing HECM to maintain as a risk-neutral program in the volatile market environment. 30
    • IBM Advanced Analytics & OptimizationBest Buy Case Study: Segmentation Approach • Start with 30-40 modeled variables – “Feature Vectors” – The customers response to the firm‟s value proposition • Each feature vector is like a gene strand, which describes a facet, or set of customer behavior traits Most segmentation approaches only Time until focus here Repurchase Econometric: Annual Age + Annual in Key Real-estate & Unemployment Spend Transactions Income + Preferred Categories Level Geography Product Preferred Categories Length of Channel Time as Customer Participation in Use of In- Loyalty Return / Use of Service House Credit Program Breadth of Exchange Programs Behavior Card Categories Response to Shopped Recency + Media Frequency + Value 3131
    • IBM Advanced Analytics & OptimizationA Major Health Insurer: Customer Analytics Industry Healthcare Challenge With the changing in healthcare environment, the Payer is transforming its traditional group-based engagement approach to a more consumer- centric engagement approach. Solution Leveraging predictive and customer analytics, IBM developed several analytical models to extract key consumer insights for every customer, including health insurance status, channel preferences, education needs. Benefits Data-driven approach played a critical role in new customer engagement strategy and enabled a more personalized and relevant consumer engagement experience. Specifically: – Insights into prospects‟ health insurance status enable a more targeted and effective acquisition approach – Insights into consumer‟s channel preference enable Payer to engage prospect and members in the most effective channel for different messaging context – Insights into members‟ education needs enable Payer to help member to understand plan value and promote wellness, building trust and loyalty. 32
    • IBM Advanced Analytics & Optimization How to get started Pick your spot Biggest and highest value opportunity Prove the value Start with questions Embed insights Roll it out over time Add capabilities Information agenda Source: Analytics: The New Path to Value, a joint MIT Sloan Management Review and IBM Institute of Business Value study. Copyright © Massachusetts Institute of Technology 2010. 33
    • IBM Advanced Analytics & Optimization Next Steps Join the IBM GovLoop User Group Today: Analytics to Outcomes For those in the Washington D.C. area on September 15th join us for a complementary analytics event: Time: 7:30 a.m.-9:30 a.m. Venue: Ronald Reagan Building ~ The Rotunda, 8th Floor (North Tower) 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW, Washington, DC To Register: "Tough Choices, Hard Numbers: How Does Your Agency Cut Costs Without Losing Effectiveness?" 34
    • Audience Q&A
    • Today’s SpeakersSteve ResslerPresident and FounderGovLoopChrister JohnsonIBM Global Business Services, PartnerAdvanced Analytics Services Leader, N. AmericaShaun BarryIBM Global Business Services, Associate PartnerGlobal Leader for Fraud Management Solutions
    • Thank You!