Good Day! Please pick notebooks! DRAW A LINE SEPARATING TODAY & YESTERDAY 1) Write: Date: 10/07/09 , Topic: Public Opinion 2) On the next line, write “ Opener #25 ” and then: 1) Plot your mood, reflect in 1 sent . 2) Respond to the opener by writing at least 2 sentences about : Your opinions/thoughts OR/AND Questions sparked by the clip OR/AND Summary of the clip OR/AND Other things going on in the news. Announcements: None Intro Music: Untitled
Peer Edit (5): 1) Use a highlighter 2) Check if sections are in order and on the cover sheet, highlight each of the sections you see 3) Read and highlight thesis + all topic sentences (1 st sen of para) + highlight any confusing sentences or citation irregularities . 4) Write 1-4 sentence(s) opinion/suggestions on their concept on the essay (para 3). 5) Write your name on their coversheet , hand back to owner.
Essay: Turn in work in the order of the cover sheet. If too thick to staple all together, staple that separate sections. Place in 1 stack on the back table by the number for your period. Place 2 nd stk: Film Notes
Agenda 1) Study Guide Test 2 2) Public Opinion This Week: Special Interest + Parties Next Week: Electoral System Two Weeks from Now: Mock Election What you will be able to do: 1) Where do people’s ideas come from? Reminder 1) No HW this week, Test 2 on Friday
Mock Quiz 1) Your political ideology is most determined by a) School b) Wealth c) Family 2) People are themselves the best qualified to secure a good future for themselves. a) Democratic Party b) Republican Party c) Libertarian Party
Review 1) Democratic Party : DEM, Liberal, Left, Donkey, Blue, 36% 2) Republican Party : GOP, Conservative, Right, Elephant, Red, 24% How to Join : Check box on voter registration form 3) Independents : DTS, don’t pick any party, 40% 4) Political Socialization : The strongest to weakest influences on your politics: a) Family b) Friends c) Orgs/Church d) Class (research is conflicted on if school does anything) Once socialized, you easily accept news that fit your view, and easily reject news that doesn’t.
Notes #25a , Title: “ Public Opinion Notes ” 1) Impact of Age : Ppl tend to start liberal, and get more conservative. Young Vote 49%, Sr Vote: 70% 2) Impact of Gender : Slightly more liberal Women Vote More 3% Oten DEM 56% GOP 43% 3) Impact Race : White Vote: DEM 43% GOP 55% Black Vote : DEM 95% GOP 4% (vote 60%) Latino Vote : DEM 67% GOP 31% (vote 47%) Asian Vote : DEM 62% GOP 35% (least vote 44%) 4) Impact of Income : Poor more liberal, vote less 5) Impact of Religion : Religious more conservative (except Jewish more liberal) 6) Impact of Education : Uneducated and PhD more liberal. BA/BS educated conservative.
Notes #25a , Title: “ Public Opinion Notes ” 1) Impact of Age : Ppl tend to start liberal, and get more conservative. Young Vote 49%, Sr Vote: 70%
Notes #25a , Title: “ Public Opinion Notes ” 2) Impact of Gender : Slightly more liberal Women Vote More 3% Often DEM 56% GOP 43%
Notes #25a , Title: “ Public Opinion Notes ” 3) Impact Race : White Vote: DEM 43% GOP 55% Black Vote : DEM 95% GOP 4% (vote 60%) Latino Vote : DEM 67% GOP 31% (vote 47%) Asian Vote : DEM 62% GOP 35% (least vote 44%)
Notes #25a , Title: “ Public Opinion Notes ” 4) Impact of Income : Poor more liberal, vote less
Notes #25a , Title: “ Public Opinion Notes ” 5) Impact of Religion : Religious more conservative (except Jewish more liberal)
Notes #25a , Title: “ Public Opinion Notes ” 6) Impact of Education : Uneducated and PhD more liberal. BA/BS educated conservative.
Notes #25a , Title: “ Public Opinion Notes ” 7) Impact of Media : Media not effective at changing views, but very effective and amplifying views we already hold
Notes #25a , Title: “ Public Opinion Notes ” 8) Crisis : Ppl tend to support gov during crisis
Work #25a , Title “ Where your thoughts came from ” Ask and Write down: 1) Ask your partner who/what shaped their current political beliefs ( include their name ). (you need not know if which party, just your general views on politics, your socialization) 2) Together discuss, then write, why do you think more people over time have become DTS ? 3) Together discuss, then write, why do you think age changes people’s party preference? 4) Together discuss, then write, why do you think certain races are more liberal? 5) Together discuss, then write, why do you think econ class changes people’s party preference? http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls
Notes #25a , Title: “ Polling Notes ” 9) Polling : Statistical method to get info on a larger group by asking a random sample of it. a) Develop a list of ALL the people in your target population b) Number those on that list 1-X c) Randomly pick ( www.randomizer.org ) the numbers you wish to sample (bigger sample = more accurate) d) Contact everyone randomly selected Exit Poll: Ask random voters as they leave voting plc Focus Group: Small group questioned in-depth Straw Poll: Non-random, not accurate ( often online ) Census: Ask everyone, 100% accurate ( each 10 yrs )
Polling < Exit Poll Focus Group Straw Poll Census
10) Polling Reliability: 4% error means results can be 4+ or 4-. Error rate depends on sample size and how many of the sample group were successfully reached and if questions’ wording was unbiased. Example: 9/22 Fox Poll: Obama: 47% Is Really: 43-51% McCain: 43% Is Really: 39-47% Halo Effect: Ppl say what sounds good ( Bradley Effect: Minorities poll higher than what the outcome is in the real vote )
Work #25a , Title “ Wording of Questions ” Polls are only as accurate as their questions. A good poll tries to be neutral in wording. A PUSH POLL is purposely bias, because is an ad acting as a poll . 1) Work with your partner, write a unbiased poll question to gauge support for President Obama. 2) Work with your partner, write a biased poll question to gauge his support. 3) Write a push poll question that plants negative information trying to hurt Obama.
Work #25c , Title “ National Polls ” 1) Work with your partner, pick a campaign : Obama or McCain , look over the Ohio polls , and write what the campaign’s policy theme that would appeal to Ohioans (write partner’s name) . 2) Look over the 2004 exit polls , and determine: Assuming…. Bush=McCain Kerry=Obama a) Who for sure will back you b) Who might back you if you work for it c) Who will never back you 3) Ask your partner, and write down, should politicians use polls to help them make decisions? Is that a sign of respect for democracy or lack of leadership ? http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/OH/P/00/epolls.0.html
Work #25b , “ Polls Debate ” 1) Read the 2 sides, choose 1 side, and write which you choose and explain why . 2) Then write down what your partner thinks ( include their name at the end ). 1 2 3 4 5 CON: Assuming polls are accurate, leaders should still ignore them 1) US is a republic, we elect representatives to run the country 2) The best leader is someone who leads her ppl to a better place PRO: Assuming polls are accurate, leaders should follow them 1) US is a democracy, so the leaders should follow the ppl’s wishes 2) The best leader is someone who puts the needs of the ppl first