Derivatives session lect i iv


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Derivatives session lect i iv

  1. 2. <ul><li>Derivatives </li></ul>
  2. 3. Discussion Points <ul><li>What are Derivatives: An Introduction </li></ul><ul><li>Global growth of Derivatives </li></ul><ul><li>Domestic Derivatives Market </li></ul><ul><li>Overview of different types of derivatives </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Forwards </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Futures </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Options </li></ul></ul>
  3. 4. Derivatives Defined <ul><li>An instrument whose value is derived from another security or any other variable </li></ul><ul><li>Is has no independent value </li></ul><ul><li>The underlying could be financial instruments, metals, agri products, oil etc. </li></ul><ul><li>Example </li></ul>
  4. 5. <ul><li>Dependence on other variables and pre-defined nature of contract make it an excellent vehicle for managing risk </li></ul><ul><li>In the preceding example: </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Wheat was the underlying asset </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>The predefined contract provides certainty to both the farmer and the baker about the future proceeds and help them mitigate risk associated with uncertainty </li></ul></ul></ul>
  5. 6. Development and Growth of Derivatives Market <ul><li>Increase in Macroeconomic instability during the crisis of 1970s </li></ul><ul><li>Oil crisis of 1970s exposed the financial systems to the risk inherent in commodities </li></ul><ul><li>Collapse of Bretton Woods system that led to most currencies adopting free-float exchange rate </li></ul><ul><li>Increased currency risk </li></ul><ul><li>Increased Globalization of Business Activities resulting in higher foreign trade and a need for managing FX exposure </li></ul>
  6. 7. <ul><li>First Option Pricing formula was given by Black Scholes in 1970 </li></ul><ul><li>Markets were flooded with various refined and sophisticated and complex derivative pricing models </li></ul><ul><li>Advanced computation facilities </li></ul>
  7. 8. Derivatives Contract <ul><li>Primarily of 2 kinds </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Traded on Exchange (organized derivatives trading) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Traded on OTC (unorganized trading) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>OTC is a generic term used for the market outside the exchange </li></ul>
  8. 9. Derivatives in India <ul><li>Exchange Traded Equity Derivatives (derivatives whose value is dependent on equities / stocks) – Launched in year 2000 </li></ul><ul><li>Index Derivatives (underlying is an Index like Nifty or Sensex) – Launched in year 2001 </li></ul><ul><li>The most preferred products </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Single stock futures account for about 55% of total volume </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Nifty Futures account for about 35% of total volume </li></ul></ul>
  9. 10. Commodity Derivatives <ul><li>Commodity Derivatives are contracts where the underlying asset is a commodity like oil, gold, metals etc. </li></ul><ul><li>FCRA – Forward Contract Regulation Act governs Commodity Derivatives in India </li></ul><ul><li>Two nationwide online commodity exchanges </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>NCDEX – National Commodity and Derivatives exchange (mostly agri products are traded) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>MCX – Multi Commodity Exchange (trading mostly bullion, metals and energy products) </li></ul></ul></ul>
  10. 11. Currency Derivatives <ul><li>Underlying asset is currency of a country </li></ul><ul><li>Recently launched in India </li></ul><ul><li>OTC currency derivative market large and active </li></ul><ul><li>Participation is mainly by Banks who trade on behalf of their clients (mostly companies) </li></ul>
  11. 12. Interest Rate Derivatives <ul><li>Value is derived from future interest rates </li></ul><ul><li>Underlying instrument is Interest Rate </li></ul><ul><li>Might be launched in India in coming years </li></ul><ul><li>Active in OTC market </li></ul>
  12. 13. Need for Derivative Products <ul><li>Need for products which can be used to mitigate risk exposure </li></ul><ul><li>To guard against uncertainties arising out of fluctuations in asset prices </li></ul><ul><li>Products that work in both domestic as well as in the global markets </li></ul>
  13. 14. <ul><li>Types of derivatives </li></ul><ul><li>Derivative Products </li></ul><ul><li>Case Studies on application of derivatives </li></ul><ul><li>Forwards Contracts </li></ul><ul><li>Disadvantages and Advantages </li></ul><ul><li>Futures Contract </li></ul><ul><li>Forwards versus Futures: Comparison Chart </li></ul>
  14. 15. Types of Derivatives <ul><li>Forward Contract </li></ul><ul><li>Futures Contract </li></ul><ul><li>Option Contract </li></ul>
  15. 16. Derivatives Products <ul><li>Products Underlying </li></ul><ul><li>Equity Derivative Stocks </li></ul><ul><li>Commodity Derivative Metals, Bullion, Oil </li></ul><ul><li>Exchange Rate Derivative Exchange Rate </li></ul><ul><li>Interest rate Derivative Interest Rates </li></ul><ul><li>Index Derivative Market Index (e.g. Nifty) </li></ul>
  16. 17. Illustrations <ul><li>Example 1. </li></ul><ul><li>Scenario - Tata Steel plans to obtain bank loan of </li></ul><ul><li> INR 500 crores two months from now </li></ul>
  17. 18. <ul><li>Risk – Interest Rate uncertainty </li></ul><ul><li>If interest rate climbs by 1% Tata Steel will have to pay additional INR 5 crores for the loan (1% on 500 crores) </li></ul>
  18. 19. <ul><li>Solution: The company would like to lock in the prevailing interest rate for obtaining the loan using an interest rate derivative contract and hedge the risk exposure </li></ul>
  19. 20. <ul><li>Example 2. </li></ul><ul><li>Scenario – An investor expects a cash outflow of INR 50 thousand one month from now </li></ul><ul><li>To meet the cash requirement she has to sell a part of her portfolio (say shares of Stock X) </li></ul><ul><li>Stock X is currently trading at INR 1000 (she is required to sell 50 stocks to make the payment) </li></ul>
  20. 21. <ul><li>Risk – Asset price (Stock Volatility) uncertainty </li></ul><ul><li>If price of the stock falls to INR 900 after one month she will have to sell 56 shares resulting in further liquidation of her portfolio </li></ul>
  21. 22. <ul><li>Solution – She would like to lock in the prevailing market price using a equity derivative contract and hedge the risk exposure today rather than wait for one month and suffer loss from adverse price movements </li></ul>
  22. 23. <ul><li>Example 3. </li></ul><ul><li>Scenario – A company providing IT services (mainly exporting to US) would sell product worth USD 50 million in 3 months from now. Prevailing exchange rate is INR 50 per USD. </li></ul><ul><li>So, after three months the company will get a cash inflow of INR 250 crores from selling the product </li></ul>
  23. 24. <ul><li>Risk – Exchange Rate Risk </li></ul><ul><li>If after three months the Rupee appreciates to INR 45 / dollar. The company would make a loss of INR 25 crores </li></ul>
  24. 25. <ul><li>Solution – The company would like to lock in the prevailing exchange rate using currency derivative contract and hedge the risk exposure today rather than wait for three month and suffer loss from exchange rate movements </li></ul>
  25. 26. <ul><li>Example 4. </li></ul><ul><li>Scenario – A domestic airlines company needs to import 2 million barrels of oil for meeting operational requirements in two months from now. </li></ul><ul><li>Oil is trading at $65/bbl in the international market and INR USD exchange rate is INR 45/USD. </li></ul><ul><li>Company is required to have approx INR 585 crores to purchase oil </li></ul>
  26. 27. <ul><li>Risk – Oil price risk and exchange rate risk </li></ul><ul><li>If after two months Oil prices rise to $75/bbl and exchange rate moves to INR 50/ USD, the company would end up paying INR 750 crores (excess of INR 165 crores) to purchase 2MMbbl oil. </li></ul>
  27. 28. <ul><li>Solution – The company would like to lock in the prevailing spot price of Oil ($65/bbl) in the international markets using commodity derivatives on oil. </li></ul><ul><li>Further, the company shall use currency derivatives to sell INR and buy USD two months in future at the prevailing exchange rate of INR45/$. </li></ul><ul><li>The strategy will help the company to hedge the risk exposure of the firm from any uncertain movement in asset price or exchange rate. </li></ul>
  28. 29. Three Types of Derivatives <ul><li>Forward Contract </li></ul><ul><li>Futures Contract </li></ul><ul><li>Options Contract </li></ul>
  29. 30. <ul><li>Forwards Contracts </li></ul>
  30. 31. Forward Contract <ul><li>Agreement to buy/sell (transact) an asset at a pre-determined price and quantity on a pre-specified date in future </li></ul><ul><li>Price, quantity and date are pre-specified at the time of entering into the contract (generally spot unless and otherwise specified) </li></ul><ul><li>The contract is obligatory in nature and default warrants legal action </li></ul>
  31. 32. Terminologies <ul><li>Technically speaking: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The party agreeing to buy the asset assumes a Long position </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The party agreeing to sell the asset assumes a Short position </li></ul></ul>
  32. 33. <ul><li>Contract is traded off-exchange i.e. in the OTC market and settlement takes place as per mutual agreements (pre-decided terms and conditions) </li></ul><ul><li>Customization of contract along with risk hedging makes it an attractive product </li></ul><ul><li>No standardization of terms and condition is required for forward contracts </li></ul>
  33. 34. Example <ul><li>(asset/goods) </li></ul><ul><li> Party A <<<<<<< Party B </li></ul><ul><li> Buyer Seller </li></ul><ul><li> Long Position Short Position </li></ul><ul><li>T = After 2 months (specific date) </li></ul><ul><li>P = @ INR 350/unit </li></ul><ul><li>Q = 100 units </li></ul><ul><li>Contrary to spot contracts T, P and Q are pre-determined. At the time of delivery the goods and cash shall exchange hands. </li></ul>
  34. 35. <ul><li>Disadvantages of Forward Contracts </li></ul>
  35. 36. Common concerns while using forward contracts <ul><li>Two major risks involved in Forward Contracts: </li></ul><ul><li>1/ Liquidity </li></ul><ul><ul><li>No secondary market </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Customization makes it a non-standard product </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Trading happens on a one-on-one basis </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Non-availability on exchange makes it extremely difficult to locate counterparty for transaction </li></ul></ul>
  36. 37. <ul><li>2/ Default Risk </li></ul><ul><ul><li>No exchange driven clearing and settlement procedure </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Adverse price movements might tempt either counterparty to dishonor the contract </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>At any time, only one counter-party has the incentive to default </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>In the previous example if the spot price after two months rises to INR 400/unit, seller would gain by selling on spot and shall default on the contract </li></ul></ul>
  37. 38. <ul><li>Advantages of Forward Contracts </li></ul>
  38. 39. Advantages of Forward Contracts <ul><li>No listing requirement </li></ul><ul><li>Activity is highly customized and negotiable (non-standardized) </li></ul><ul><li>Counterparties can mutually decide upon </li></ul><ul><ul><li>What to trade (asset / product and type) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Where to trade (delivery location) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>How much to trade (quantity) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>What price to trade (price) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>When to trade (date) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>No transaction cost, taxes etc. </li></ul><ul><li>No margin requirement </li></ul>
  39. 40. <ul><li>Futures Contract </li></ul>
  40. 41. Futures Contract <ul><li>Agreement to buy/sell (transact) an asset at a pre-determined price and quantity on a pre-specified date in future </li></ul><ul><li>Price, quantity and date are pre-specified at the time of entering into the contract </li></ul><ul><li>The contract is obligatory in nature and default warrants for legal action </li></ul>
  41. 42. Understanding Futures Contract w.r.t. Forward Contracts <ul><li>Exchange traded forward contracts </li></ul><ul><li>Standardized forward contracts </li></ul><ul><li>Attractive for large set of market participants </li></ul><ul><li>High liquidity </li></ul><ul><li>No counter-party risk or default risk as counterparty is the exchange itself </li></ul>
  42. 43. Comparison Chart Futures Forwards
  43. 44. One major advantage of Futures contract over Forward contracts <ul><li>Complication of final settlement if the contract is traded subsequently can be avoided in Futures contract </li></ul><ul><li>Futures market would account the net final positions and declare two counterparties thereby facilitating hassle free transaction </li></ul>
  44. 45. Key Terminologies <ul><li>Forward Contract </li></ul><ul><li>Futures Contract </li></ul><ul><li>Long Position </li></ul><ul><li>Short Position </li></ul><ul><li>Underlying </li></ul><ul><li>OTC </li></ul><ul><li>Mark-to-market </li></ul><ul><li>Hedgers </li></ul><ul><li>Speculators </li></ul><ul><li>Arbitragers </li></ul>
  45. 46. Commonly Traded futures contracts <ul><li>Index Futures </li></ul><ul><li>Single stock futures </li></ul><ul><li>Interest Rate Futures </li></ul><ul><li>Commodity Futures </li></ul>
  46. 47. Futures on Financial Assets <ul><li>At any time three Futures contract trade in the market on Stock Futures and Index Futures </li></ul><ul><li>1 month, 2 months and 3 months </li></ul><ul><li>E.g. November Futures, December Futures and January Futures </li></ul><ul><li>Futures contract expire on the last Thursday of the month. E.g. Nov Futures contract will expire on Thursday, 20 Nov 08. </li></ul><ul><li>On expiry a new 3 month contract is formed, the 2 months contract becomes the 1 month contract and 3 months contract becomes the 2 months contract </li></ul>
  47. 48. Positions <ul><li>Opening a Position </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Having a long or short position in a contract. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Eg. Mr X shorts 5 Jan Futures contracts on Infosys </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Outstanding or unsettled long or short positions </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Closing a Position </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Buying or selling a contract that results in the reduction of open positions e.g. Buying or selling two contra futures </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>E.g. Mr X longs 5 Jan Futures contacts on Infosys </li></ul></ul></ul>
  48. 49. Terminologies <ul><li>Basis – Spot Price minus the Futures Price </li></ul><ul><li>Spread – Difference between the prices of two futures contract </li></ul><ul><li>Cost of Carry – The cost incurred to finance the trading in derivatives. E.g. transaction cost, opportunity cost (interest lost on the balance in the margin account), storage cost (physical commodities) etc. </li></ul>
  49. 50. Measure of Liquidity <ul><li>Open Interest </li></ul><ul><li>Volume </li></ul>
  50. 51. Open Interest <ul><li>Open Interest: Number of outstanding and unsettled positions in a contract </li></ul><ul><li>Total number of contracts that have not expired or squared-off </li></ul><ul><li>Contract specific measure </li></ul><ul><li>Total of long position would exactly offset total of short positions and hence only one side of the contract is counted for the purpose of calculating the open interest </li></ul>
  51. 52. Interpretation of Open Interest <ul><li>Indicates level of trading activity in the F&O segment of the underlying security </li></ul><ul><ul><li>E.g. Sudden increase in Open Interest indicates increase in security’s volatility in near term on account of corporate news (insider) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Open Interest indicates that new money is flowing into the marketplace </li></ul>
  52. 53. General Interpretations of OI <ul><li>An increase in Open Interest along with an increase in price is said to confirm an upward trend (market is strong) </li></ul><ul><li>An decrease in Open Interest along with a rise in price is said to confirm (signals) a downward trend </li></ul><ul><li>An increase in Open Interest along with decrease in price indicates market is weak </li></ul><ul><li>A decrease in both Open interest and Prices indicates market is strengthening </li></ul>
  53. 54. Volume <ul><li>Trading activity in the market with regard to a specific contract, over a period of time, e.g. a day, a week or the entire life of the contact </li></ul><ul><li>Defined in terms of either: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Number of contracts traded during a specific period of time, or </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Value of all the contracts traded </li></ul></ul>
  54. 55. Open Interest and Volume <ul><li>Increase in Open Interest along with increase in volume when prices rise indicates that more traders likely entering long positions </li></ul><ul><li>Thumb rules for interpreting changes in volume and open interest in futures market: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Rising Vol. and rising OI confirms a trend </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Rising Vol. and falling OI indicates position liquidation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Falling Vol. and rising OI indicates cautious and slow accumulation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Falling Vol. and falling OI depicts a congestion phase </li></ul></ul>
  55. 56. Daily Price Movement Limits – Price Band <ul><li>Daily Price Movement Limits are specified by the exchange for every contract </li></ul><ul><li>If the price hits lower limit it is called Limit Down </li></ul><ul><li>If the price hits upper limit it is called Limit Up </li></ul><ul><li>Normally trading ceases for the day in that contract once the contract is limit up or limit down </li></ul><ul><li>Purpose of limits is to prevent large price movements occurring because of speculative excess </li></ul>
  56. 57. What do Futures Prices indicate? <ul><li>Futures are normally traded daily as stocks and laws of supply and demand apply to arrive at the price of the contract </li></ul><ul><li>Assume a Nifty November 2008 Futures Contract is trading at 3123 on 10 Nov 2008. What does that indicate? </li></ul>
  57. 58. <ul><li>As the contract is trading for the settlement on the last Thursday of November 2008, the trading level of 3123 indicates that at the close of market on expiry, the market expects the cash index to settle at 2989 </li></ul><ul><li>All market participants seek to predict the cash index level at contract maturity </li></ul><ul><li>This results in price discovery of the cash index at a specific point </li></ul><ul><li>Futures prices are essentially the expected cash prices of the underlying asset at the maturity of the futures contract </li></ul>
  58. 59. Convergence of Futures Price to Spot Price <ul><li>Futures price converge to spot price as the expiry approaches </li></ul><ul><li>On expiry the futures price equals the spot price and all futures contract are settled at the underlying cash market settlement price </li></ul><ul><li>Non convergence would result in an arbitrage opportunity </li></ul>
  59. 60. Convergence of Futures Price to Spot Price <ul><li>Example of an Arbitrage: </li></ul><ul><li>Suppose the futures price is above the spot price at expiry. The arbitragers would </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Short a futures contract </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Buy the asset </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Deliver the assets </li></ul></ul>
  60. 61. <ul><li>Margins </li></ul>
  61. 62. Margin Requirement <ul><li>Futures contract settlement on the exchange is the responsibility of the exchange clearing house </li></ul><ul><li>To minimize the default risk on a contract due to unfavorable price movements the exchange mandates the counterparties to deposit a minimum amount as specified by the exchange </li></ul><ul><li>The amount is deposited in the margin account </li></ul><ul><li>This minimum amount deposited at the time of contract initiation is called the Initial Margin </li></ul>
  62. 63. <ul><li>Margin requirements might vary depending upon the volatility in the markets. Securities can also be deposited in lieu of cash. </li></ul><ul><li>Minimum initial margins on different positions are prescribed by the clearing house based on specified risk algorithm using Standard Portfolio Analysis of Risk (SPAN) </li></ul>
  63. 64. <ul><li>Maintenance Margin – Minimum margin level to be always maintained in the margin account </li></ul><ul><li>MM requirement is lower than the initial margin and it ensures that the margin account never becomes negative </li></ul><ul><li>If the margin account falls below the MM, investor receives a margin call and is expected to top up the margin account to the Initial Margin level the next day </li></ul><ul><li>The extra funds deposited are known as Variation Margin </li></ul><ul><li>Margin account is adjusted at the end of each trading day considering the day’s closing price to reflect the investor’s gain or loss. This practice is referred to as Marking to Market </li></ul>
  64. 65. <ul><li>Non paying of the variation margin results in closing out (liquidation) of the position by the broker </li></ul><ul><li>The purpose of margining system is to reduce the possibility of market participants sustaining losses because of defaults </li></ul><ul><li>Losses arising from defaults in contacts at major exchanges have been almost nonexistent </li></ul>
  65. 66. <ul><li>Using margins the risk is divided into smaller pieces daily </li></ul><ul><li>The losses are collected from the losers and given to the gainers </li></ul><ul><li>Pay-in and Pay-out happens on T+1 basis </li></ul><ul><li>V-a-R model is used to estimate potential losses on any given day using certain confidence interval (probability) </li></ul><ul><li>V-a-R also helps deciding the margin limits (SPAN) </li></ul>
  66. 67. Margin Calculation and Margin Call <ul><li>E.g. ICICI Futures – Lot size is 700 shares and Futures Price is INR 430/ share </li></ul><ul><li>Initial Margin (10% of contract value) – INR 30,100/ contract </li></ul><ul><li>Let us say; </li></ul><ul><ul><li>A buys 4 contracts on 07 Nov 2008 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>B sells 4 contracts on 07 Nov 2008 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>A and B pay INR 120,400 as Initial Margin </li></ul><ul><li>MM is 75% of IM – INR 90,300 </li></ul>
  67. 69. <ul><li>Applications of Futures: Valuation and Strategies </li></ul>
  68. 70. Assumptions <ul><li>No transaction costs and taxes </li></ul><ul><li>Market participants can borrow money at the same risk-free rate of interest </li></ul><ul><li>Borrowing rates equal lending rates </li></ul><ul><li>Arbitrage opportunities are exploited as they occur </li></ul><ul><li>No income is accrued on the asset like dividend etc. </li></ul><ul><li>No storage costs </li></ul><ul><li>Forward and futures prices are same </li></ul>
  69. 71. Notations <ul><li>T: time until expiry </li></ul><ul><li>S 0 : Spot price of the underlying asset </li></ul><ul><li>F 0 : Futures / Forward price today </li></ul><ul><li>r: Risk free rate of interest per annum, expressed with continuous compounding </li></ul>
  70. 72. Pay-off from Futures Contract <ul><li>Pay-off is like profit/loss accruing to the investor </li></ul><ul><li>Since the contracts are MTM on a daily basis pay-offs are calculated based on the change in the market price of the contract daily </li></ul>
  71. 73. <ul><li>Pay-off from Long Futures: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Unlimited gain if the prices rise and huge losses if prices decline </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Pay-off from Short Futures: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Huge gains if the prices fall and unlimited losses if the prices rise </li></ul></ul>
  72. 74. Pricing Futures <ul><li>F = S 0 e ^(rT) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>r is cost of financing using continuous compounding </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>T is time till expiration </li></ul></ul>
  73. 75. <ul><li>Example: </li></ul><ul><li>Security XYZ Ltd trades in the spot market at INR 1150. Assuming risk free rate to be 3% p.a. Calculate the fair value (theoretical value) of the 2 months futures contract (assume the security to be non dividend paying). INR 1156 </li></ul><ul><li>Strategies open to an arbitrageur if the futures price is: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>INR 1175 or, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>INR 1140 </li></ul></ul>
  74. 76. <ul><li>Strategy, if futures price @ INR 1170: Cash and Carry Arbitrage </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Step 1/ : Borrow INR 1150 at risk-free rate </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Step 2/ : Invest the proceeds to buy the underlying asset at INR 1150 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Step 3/ : Short 2 month futures contract to sell the asset for INR 1175 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Gain from the strategy: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>INR 25 is the gain on price differential </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>INR 6 is the interest paid on borrowed amount </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>INR 19 is the overall gain { F - S 0 e ^(rT) } </li></ul></ul>
  75. 77. <ul><li>Strategy, if futures price @ INR 1140: Reverse Cash and Carry Arbitrage </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Step 1/ : Sell the security on spot </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Step 2/ : Invest the proceeds at risk-free rate </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Step 3/ : Take a long position in a two month futures contract for INR 1140 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Gain from the strategy: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>INR 6 is the risk-free interest earned </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Price differential INR(1150-1140) = INR 10 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>INR 16 is the overall gain { S 0 e ^(rT) - F } </li></ul></ul>
  76. 78. <ul><li>So if; </li></ul><ul><ul><li>F > S 0 e ^(rT) {buy the asset and short the forward contract on the asset} – Contango </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>F < S 0 e ^(rT) {sell the asset and long the forward contract} – Backwardation </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The price should be equal to INR 1156 for no arbitrage opportunity to exist </li></ul><ul><li>Cash and Carry Arbitrage prevents futures prices from being above the theoretical price </li></ul><ul><li>Reverse cash and carry arbitrage prevents prices from dipping below the theoretical price </li></ul>
  77. 79. Example: <ul><li>Non dividend paying stock trading at INR 120 </li></ul><ul><li>Risk free rate is 5% </li></ul><ul><li>Calculate the fair value of 1 year forward contract </li></ul><ul><li>Strategy if the forward price is INR 128? </li></ul>
  78. 80. <ul><li>1/ Borrow INR 120 at 5% </li></ul><ul><li>2/ Invest to buy the stock on spot </li></ul><ul><li>3/ Sell the one year forward @ INR 128 </li></ul><ul><li>Gain: Price differential less interest </li></ul><ul><li> INR (8 – 6) = INR 2 per contract </li></ul>
  79. 81. Application of Futures: Key Strategies <ul><li>Hedging: Long Security, sell futures </li></ul><ul><li>Speculation: Bullish security, buy futures </li></ul><ul><li>Speculation: Bearish security, sell futures </li></ul><ul><li>Arbitrage: Overpriced futures: buy spot, sell futures </li></ul><ul><li>Arbitrage: Underpriced futures: buy futures, sell spot </li></ul>
  80. 82. Short Hedging: Long Security, sell futures <ul><li>Investor holding a stock sees the current price falling from INR 450 to INR 390 </li></ul><ul><li>In the absence of stock futures he would sell the security (or suffer from hypertension) </li></ul><ul><li>Using security futures he can minimize his price risk </li></ul><ul><li>Sell a futures contract to off-set the downside risk due to the fall in stock price </li></ul><ul><li>Index futures can be effectively used to get rid of the market risk of the portfolio – Long Portfolio + Short Nifty </li></ul>
  81. 83. Speculation: Bullish security, buy futures <ul><li>Futures provide a high leverage on investment </li></ul><ul><li>A speculator is bullish on a stock and decides to buy securities to take the advantage of price rise. Invests INR 100,000 (100 shares * 1000/share) </li></ul><ul><li>One month later the price rises to INR 1010, his profit is INR 1,000 on INR 100,000 investment (i.e. return of 6%) </li></ul>
  82. 84. <ul><li>Other speculator takes the same position using one futures contract trading at 1006. Assume contract value is INR 100,600 (100 shares/contract) and approx 20% is the margin i.e. INR 20,000 </li></ul><ul><li>On expiry the contract closes on INR 1010 (equal to spot price) providing a profit of INR 400 (i.e. annual return of 12% on INR 20,000 invested) </li></ul>
  83. 85. Speculation: Bearish security, sell futures <ul><li>What if a speculator finds an overvalued stock? </li></ul><ul><li>How can he trade based on his opinion? </li></ul>
  84. 86. <ul><li>Sell stock futures </li></ul><ul><li>If his prediction is correct the spot price would fall </li></ul><ul><li>Arbitragers would ensure that futures price move closely to that of the spot price </li></ul><ul><li>If spot prices fall futures are most likely to experience a fall as well </li></ul><ul><li>Since the speculator takes a short position he shall benefit from the fall in the futures price </li></ul>
  85. 87. Arbitrage: Overpriced futures: buy spot, sell futures <ul><li>Cost of carry ensures that the futures price stay in tune with the spot price </li></ul><ul><li>If the futures price deviates from the spot arbitrage opportunity arise </li></ul><ul><li>E.g. ABC Ltd trading at INR 1000 and ABC Futures trading at INR 1025 </li></ul><ul><li>Strategies for an arbitrageur ? </li></ul>
  86. 88. <ul><li>Borrow funds at risk free rate and buy the security </li></ul><ul><li>Simultaneously, sell the futures at INR 1025 </li></ul><ul><li>Hold the security till expiry </li></ul><ul><li>On expiry the prices will converge </li></ul><ul><li>Say on expiry spot price is INR 1015, sell the security. Profit INR 15 from sale in spot position </li></ul><ul><li>Futures expire with a profit of INR 10 </li></ul><ul><li>Overall profit is INR 25 minus the interest cost </li></ul><ul><li>Return the borrowed funds </li></ul><ul><li>Cost of borrowing must be less than the price differential </li></ul>
  87. 89. <ul><li>What if the futures price is below the spot price? </li></ul><ul><li>How would an arbitrager benefit from the opportunity? </li></ul>
  88. 90. Arbitrage: Underpriced futures: buy futures, sell spot <ul><li>Useful when the Futures are underpriced </li></ul><ul><ul><li>E.g. ABC Limited trading at INR 1,000. Near month futures is trading at INR 965. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Strategy: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Sell spot </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Invest in risk free assets </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Simultaneously, buy futures </li></ul></ul>